Race 1. 3-2-6
Puzzling race to start the day. Oashaar ran greenly first out, being rank in the early part of the race and going five wide around the turn. On the positive side, he did run evenly after the first quarter. Cancel didn’t give him the greatest ride, but the fact he returns can be seen as a positive. He’ll get the tentative nod. Patrick’s Harp has a sharp work two days ago, but the fact that Gary Contessa is 0 for 48 with first timers gives a lot of reason to pause. On the plus side, Irad takes the ride. Joy Drive is one of two Linda Rice horses. She’s at least had some success with firsters, and the better jockey takes this horse. As I said, I have no great insight so there will be no surprising finishes.
Race 2. 6-1-7
Unstoppable U should be the clear speed and it doesn’t seem to matter who the trainer is. He’s had four wins and two close seconds in his last six races for three different trainers. Lots of positives today. At first glance Jonesy Boy doesn’t jump off the page, but there are some positives. The horse is making a substantial drop, especially considering he was racing in restricted stakes the last time he ran at the AQU inner meeting. He had two thirds and a win in his last races on the inner, with figures that would soar above this field. Yeah, that was then and this is now, but at 10-1 he’s worth a look. Decent enough workouts for the return off a long layoff. Ground Control has a win on the inner and was claimed by RuRod last out. Has some outs here.
Race 3. 1-4-3-2
Candy Counter is one of two horses with a start, and looks like the better of the two starters. She broke from the far outside post, stumbled and was bumped at the start, but still managed to get into the race, fading in the stretch but not horribly. With a clean break from the rail, should be much improved. Five Star Rampage goes first time for Jimmy Jerkens. The workout pattern suggests some talent and Jerkens is a decent 18% with firsters. Hot Cajun Sauce is another with a good workout pattern and is well bred for the distance. Naked Express was the other second time starter and with the scratch of Candy Counter is the only horse with experience. We’ll make that and the switch to Irad reason enough to put her in the mix.
Race 4. 4-6-8
Memory Keeper was an impressive winner in a $25K state-bred maiden. Jumps up a little bit today, but he is the best early speed and the recent figures are competitive. Worth a look at 5-1. Humboldt and Frost has been toiling at this level for his last three races, but has been competitive. Fastest last race figure in his first race on the inner. Drops from routes to a sprint and he may benefit from the cutback. Bensational is running his third off a long layoff and his first two races on the inner were both decent runs. Reasonable chances today.
Race 5. 2-5-4-6
This mid level claiming affair has only seven starters, but it is hard to immediately toss any horse. Because He Can ships in from LRL. He takes a drop in price today, and seems to be landing in the right spot considering this is only his sixth start. Only finished out of the money in his debut. The connections are relatively unknown in these parts. I suspect he’ll go off higher than his ML odds given the questions, but if he runs his best race he competes in this field. Hector’s Pride ran well at this level two back, stepped up and didn’t flop too badly. Blinkers go on today and the jock who rode him to his second place finish at this class is back aboard. Dance Champion drops to his lowest level ever and it looks like it might be a good move. He was a winner in a NW1X at KEE in September, but hasn’t quite impressed on the inner. Irad sticks with him and that’s a good sign, and the level of competition should be more to his liking. Marble Falls is the likely front runner and speed is always dangerous.
Race 6. 2-1-7
Summit Moon figures to get a good spot from the rail and only missed by 3/4 last out. He has some competitive numbers and Kimmel has been doing well with limited starters at AQU. Potential value. The Drawing Away Stables entry of Talk Time and Jumping Frac Flash. The former got by his NW2 condition two back, was claimed by Drawing Away, moved up to $25K and ran an odd race where he trailed badly and closed up well to miss by 4 3/4. Drops back to $14K and should run an improved race today. The latter was also claimed two back and seems to be in the right spot. Coach’s Challenge dropped to the NW3 level last out, ran a fairly strong race. Seems well suited to the route.
Race 7. 5-4-2
The Heavenly Prize stakes has a small but competitive group of seven. Saythreehailmary’s has been competitive with NY state-bred. While she hasn’t seen graded company, she is 7 of 8 with three wins on the inner. He figures say she fits in this group, especially considering a couple of the graded horses are coming off long layoffs. Her pressing style may be an advantage here. At 15-1 she’s hard to ignore. Include Betty has been off since October, but in 2015 was running against some of the top three year old fillies. Tom Proctor had been prepping her at Tampa and Proctor is bring horses back off the long layoff at a 22% clip. She’ll be coming from well back, but she’s done well with that move. I like the spot she comes back in. Mei Ling is the speed of the field and certainly has the numbers to compete with this group. She puts the blinkers on and Pletcher is an impressive 22% when he adds the shades.
Race 8. 1-4-7
This statebred optional claiming looks ultra competitive so we might as well look for some prices. There are five legitimate speed horses here, and the best closer, Detifoss, is a little suspect. Final Chapter was moved to the Bill Mott stable and came back to run a clunker after a 10-month layoff. He had some excuses considering his start was troubled, Mott is usually better when his horses have had a race, and the race was a two turn affair and his wins have come at the sprint distance. Last year he broke his maiden and won a statebred OC $75K on the inner at today’s distance. Interesting at 8-1 ML odds. The Big Deluxe was snagged last out for $25K and qualifies for the race by running for the $40K tag. The veteran campaigner has run well on the inner and certainly shows a desire to win. The downside – Quartarolo is only hitting at 4%. His regular rider, Irad, stays and the familiarity should help him. Hard to go overboard about him at 5-2. Gypsum Johnny is the Linda Rice entrant. He’s been good on the inner and has been consistent in his figures.
Race 9. 6-7-3
The 64th running of The Gotham could be the race that propels a horse into the middle of the Triple Crown . A number of these horses are inexperienced at the stakes level and this represents a big opportunity. One of the more experienced runners is Conquest Big E. The Casse trained runner actually wasn’t that far behind major KY Derby force Nyquist in the BC Juvenile and had nothing to be embarrassed about losing three lengths to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. Plenty of experience around two turns and he may turn the tables with a less troubled start. Interesting at the odds. Sunny Ridge just won the Withers on the inner, and previous won the Sapling and was a creditable second in both the Champagne and Delta Jackpot. Looking to make NJ proud. Adventist jumped from the maiden ranks directly to the Withers and may not have run his best in his first effort with stakes winners. In that race he was green and shied from Ken Carmouche’s whip. Excellent work a week ago. If he learned his racing lessons, he could be a big factor.
Race 10. 6-4-2
St. Joseph gets the nod in this NW2L nightcap. He has been knocking with statebred ALW NW1X runners. Changes trainers to Robert Barbara and he is a fair 12% with new runners. Off his best he can polish off this field. Bustin the Bank finally broke his maiden last out in wire to wire fashion in a good time by cutting back to the sprint distance. He stays at that distance today and figures as a competitor. Norm the Giant ran a couple of better than looked races when switched to the inner and can’t be totally discounted.