Since we can’t wait until 2 minutes to post to get the scratches (thanks NYRA) I’m putting this up now. Take the off the turf races for what they are worth.
It looks like the inevitable summer rain has hit paradise, and with two races coming off the turf in the late sequence it looks like big changes and scratches will be coming.
I wanted to do something a little different with the 7th and 10th races today. In cheaper races, especially maiden claiming and NW2, there are often horses that show as non-win types or simply out of all condition. When we are playing a multiple race sequence we can safely eliminate these horses from the win slot, even though they may have competitive numbers and a reasonably high probability of finishing in the money.
RACE 7
This is a NW2 race on for $25000 Claimers off the turf. Scratches are 3, 4, 5, 6, 8. We’ll eliminate right off the top the following horses:
- My Four Rewards (1 for 15)
- Kate is a Ten (1 for 19)
- Echluath(1 for 12)
- Datts da Boss (1 for 18)
- Eurokay by Me ((1 for 41)
- Baal Perazim (1 for 26)
- Golden Cheetah (1 for 17)
That leaves us three horses and an MTO to handicap. If the race goes off the turf, we’ll throw in the MTO, 13 Mr Rico Is Valid. 7 Sultry Warrior is listed at 5-1 on the morning line for no reason I can discern. She looks to be in poor condition. 2 Lemon and Honey has been knocking around this class a while but was just claimed by Gary Contessa and for that reason I didn’t put her in the non-win class. Contessa gets one more chance to turn the horse around. 11 Tacones has been racing in Florida and certainly doesn’t look outclassed in this group.
In the pick-4 we’ll use some combination of 2-11-13.
RACE 8
8 is scratched. That sucks because I had the best line about 8.
- 1 NightManeuver has been knocking at the door and has a win and two thirds on wet tracks. The 1 post is no advantage at 7 furlongs and hopefully by the 8th we’ll know how the track is playing.
- 2 River Rocks just won his NW1X race and looks competitive here. He should have enough speed to avoid an serious backsplash.
- 1A Ground Force completes the military jargon entry. He also has 2 wins and 2 seconds on wet tracks. He just won an OC40000 – in fact he has 8 wins overall – so he is in for a tag today.
- 8 Eastwood – go ahead, make my day. Here’s a broken record at Saratoga – Pletcher/Velasquez, moving up through the conditions, plenty of speed. He’ll be the favorite and probably should be.
RACE 9
The Shuvee is already scheduled for the dirt so the question is who will defect.
- 2 Flashy American has been consistent for trainer Kenny McPeek, only finishing out the money twice in her last 10 races. She ran creditably in the Delaware Handicap, losing second by a half length to the well-regarded Princess of Sylmar.
- 3 Antipathy is listed at 9-5 on the ML and on a wet track could go off even shorter. After spending a few races with optional claimers, she finished third, coincidentally behind Close Hatches and Princess of Sylmar in the Ogden Phipps at odds of 30-1. She has nice numbers and I think her last shows her to be a Graded horse, but 30-1 to even money is a dramatic change.
- As far as the other runners, S1 Swinger’s Party looks more suited to lesser stakes, 4 Unlimited Budget doesn’t appear to be in top form (I know, Pletcher/Castellano) but you should look at the board to see if she’s live, 5 Stanwyk seems to be a horse that likes to finish close without winning, 6 Hot Stones might be better suited to sprints, and 7 Ambusher looks maybe a cut below.
RACE 10
If we do the same exercise as the 7th race, 2 As Well, 4 Milkyyourway, 8 Zafiro Azul, and 11 Life’s A Stage all get eliminated at a glance. The race will be off the turf, so the MTOs are in. Scartches are 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11 ,14. After the scratches all I have are the MTOs
- Both the MTOs 15 Very Accomplished and 16 Touching My Toes are contenders. But like most MTOs they will be overbet.
That leaves me with 24 combinations. Pretty cheap to get a thrill. As Shapperdacapper put it, tread lightly today.