The last four at Saratoga look brutal from a handicapping perspective. All four are on the turf at route distances.

Race 8

The 8th is a ALW NW1X at a mile on the inner turf. I’m  giving the nod to #9 Tasmona. The Chad Brown trainee only has three starts and she has been brought along carefully for her Saratoga debut. She should be able to establish a good spot even though she is coming out of the 9 post, and the combination of Brown and Castellano has been deadly everywhere, including Saratoga. I don’t think she is worth more than her morning line, but 4-1 would be a fair price. #5 Stock Fund is one of those horses I am wary about putting in the win slot, but seem a high probability for one of the lesser awards. That 28-3-11-5 record makes me wonder about the horse’s heart, but her three wins have all come in her last six races, so perhaps she’s decided being an also ran isn’t what she wants to do. #4 Mei Ling is an interesting horse. She has yet to run on the turf, but her dirt figures are very competitive. She is an Empire Maker out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the turf shouldn’t be a problem. The #11 Weave only seems to be getting better and better. In her last race she encountered all kinds of trouble, including being blocked, wide into the stretch and having to check around a fallen horse. I’m not sure if she was best in that race, but she was never given a chance to show her best. She is only listed at 5-1 on the ML, but may be one of the horses that takes action.

Race 9

The 9th is an optional claimer on the turf. The ML favorite at 3-1 is #8 Battle Force, and that shows the competitiveness of the race. I’m giving the nod to #9 North Star Boy, an Irish bred who has been generally consistent over the last two years. On the down side she hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle in 2014, but she does look to be in good form. #2 Pyrite Mountain is starting for the first time in the Todd Pletcher barn, and he wouldn’t have to improve the horse much to find the winners enclosure. He does have a win over the Saratoga turf. #7 Shock Leader’s last two races have been his best, and although he makes a slight jump in class he looks competitive. #4 Hard Enough won the Grade 2 Red Bank at Monmouth in May and led the field to the stretch in the Grade 2 Monmouth three weeks later. He should be the controlling pace, although I question his heart in the stretch.

Race 10

The Grade 1 Diana brings together some of the top turf fillies in the country. #4 Emollient should vie for favoritism with #8 Alterite and both are deserving picks. Remember one of my angles on the turf – Grade 1 horses beat Grade 2 horses, Grade 2 beats Grade 3. Emollient is a multiple Grad 1 winner and just barely missed notching another G1 in the Gamely at Santa Anita. She has plenty of tactical speed and should get good position from the 4 post. Alterite is another Grade 1 winner and is multiple G1 placed. She has a nice pressing style that should keep her well positioned, and the Brown/Castellano coupling has been powerful at the Spa. #9 Stephanie’s Kitten is another Chad Brown trainee that has been put in the capable riding hands of Frankie Dettori today. Stephanie’s Kitten has a win over the Saratoga turf, and finished a short half-length from the win in last year’s Diana. She should be one of the horse’s closing in the stretch, and if anyone can time that move correctly it is Dettori. #3 Somali Lemonade is a sentimental pick. I touted her in my 2011 Breeder’s Cup analysis for Horseplayer Magazine and have been waiting for her to emerge as a Grade 1 filly/mare since. Lately she has shown nothing but a front-running style, and could have a lot to say about the pace in this race.

Race 11

The nightcap may be a nightmare as some NW1X horses negotiate a mile and a sixteenth on the Mellon Turf. I’m going to go against the grain and take the 15-1 ML #3 Alarmed Ndangerous. I tend to like horses in effective NW2 races that have proven to be winners, and Alarmed Ndangerous has a creditable record of 16-3-4-4. He is a bit of a plodder, and you always have to worry about those types getting buried in the pack, but this is only his second start of the year and he could improve enough to win if he stays out of trouble. #2 All Included ran a powerful race first time on the turf, and seems to be the “smart money” horse. Given the ambiguities in this race, expect All Included to get strong action. If he is as good as the insiders think, he may leave this field behind just as he did his last one. #6 Alakazan Alakazan tried to steal the Maker’s Mark mile from Wise Dan, but was exposed as a lower class horse in the stretch. The Brazilian bred has yet to cross the wire first in America, but does get the services of the capable Johhny V for trainer Graham Motion. #10 Stableford has not been getting great trips since coming to America, and being on the outside today probably won’t help. Still, he fits in the field and at this distance.

So the numbers are

9-5-4-11/9-2-7-2/4-8-9-(3)/3-2-6-10