Update: Well it helps to get the scratches correct. Apparently in my world 6 looks a lot like 8. It is corrected below. 2 took the lead in the stretch and was handily run down by the 3. 1 took heavy win action and held on for third with the six picking up fourth. It was a $106 exacta. If you went for the 2/3 it could have made your day. 

It seemed fitting to do the final race at Belmont until September. It is a 6-furlong, $40,000 optional claiming race for state-bred fillies that are essentially NW3.

1-White Sangria. Running style – early speed with an ability to track. White Sangria has been rested since finishing second in a 5-furlong sprint at GP last march. Her pace figures at the distance are competitive and she is three of four in the money on the Belmont turf.

2-One Time Only. Running style – should be more of a presser in this race. One Time Only has done most of her racing at SA. Her pace figures are definitely competitive, although the Santa Anita turf is far different than the Belmont turf.

3-Invading Humor. Running style – should be pressing in this race. Horse is two of three in the money on the BEL lawn. She is coming out of state-bred optional claimers. Her pace figures put her in the mix.

4-Fancy Boss. Running style – Fancy Boss should be close to the early pace and at 10-1 M/L is interesting.

5-Penthouse Party. Scratched

6-Desert Bliss. Running style – sustained pace, closer. She is a 2 for 27 horse that seems to get a lot of seconds, thirds and fourths. Maybe a superfecta play.

7-Marcy. Running style – seems to prefer the midpack/presser role. She is 2 for 25 and zero for five on the Belmont turf. She’d be a surprise winner for me.

8-Lumineuse. Scratched

9-Image of Noon. Running Style – more a sustained/closer type. At only 6-1 M/L she is hard to really get pumped up over, but she wouldn’t be a shock.

10-Uncle Southern. Running style – another early speed horse with and ability to sit in position and make a move in the stretch. She is two for two in the money on the BEL turf.

So here is how the running style breaks down.

Early speed – 1, 4, 10

Presser – 2, 3, 7

Sustained/closer – 6, 9

If you look at the turf sprints from Saturday, horses on or near the lead did best. The best of the front-runners is the 4, although the 1 and 10 look like they will be happy to volley up front. The 4 also has the best pace figure with the 1 a close second. Both the 3 and 7 are coming out of the May 21 race where the 10 finished second by a nose. I downgraded the 2 on my odds line because she doesn’t have a Belmont turf start, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think she is a prime contender. If she runs to her SA form she may win by open lengths.

Here is an odds line that doesn’t violate the pari-mutuel requirement like the morning line does. It also reflects the fact that I think the race is competitive.

Horse         Odds Line

1.                   5-1
2.                   9-2
3.                   6-1
4.                   4-1
5. SCR
6.                 15-1
7.                 50-1
8. SCR
9.                   6-1
10.                   9-2

No horse stands out on paper here. I think 4 looks good to fill one of the first three positions. If the 2 runs back to her SA form, she looks like another strong In the money possibility. The 3 may be the overlay. Some combination of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 10 seem a cinch to make up the superfecta. Find your overlay and good luck.