Lately Saratoga has been full of difficult to handicap, competitive races and today is no exception. But, here goes.
Race 1 6-7-2
Leilani’s Ticket was claimed last out by Shosberg. He gelded the horse and drops him to his lowest claiming price. He won a state-bred $25K claimer in May and that gives him the best lifetime figure. Has a third in his three SAR starts. The choice between the two speed horses Attractive Ride and Energetico was a tough one but I went with Energetico. They both have consistently shown good early speed and they may fry each other, but Energetico has shown speed against much better company and I’m betting Attractive Ride gives in first. Real Estate Rich comes off my “horses to watch” list. The comment “checked 5/16” hardly does justice to what happened to him in that race. He lost any chance down the backstretch, but he was competitive with these sorts in his races before that one.
Race 2 6-3-1
Parker Lily went for 19 times the stud fee and that was for a Pennsylvania bred. She was a beaten favorite first time out but had trouble. She gets a chance to get it right today. Thrilled (you have to wonder how that name wasn’t taken) goes for Pletcher/Velasquez and although he isn’t as strong with debut turf fillies the pairing has to be respected. Ava’s Kitten goes for Brown/Castellano and that is a pairing that is dangerous with first time turf fillies. She’s superbly bred for the turf and the distance.
Race 3 2-7-4
Animal Appeal has shown good speed and cuts back in distance. The one to catch. Hush Now also cuts back to a sprint and seems to have taken well to the turf. Worth a look at the odds. Pink Freud Live adds blinkers and Lasix and she has been very competitive lately.
Race 4 2-5-7
Hartford broke his maiden in dominating fashion and is well placed for his return and first with winners. He was a $700K purchase and there are surely big things expected from him. Silver Ride looked good in a dirt sprint his last out, catching a very nice figure. He fits well here. Fortuitous goes for RuRod. He was over his head in the Long Branch but is much better placed in this spot.
Race 5 3-9-5
Shinobi drops down from MSW to the claiming ranks and Chad Brown is almost 50% with that move. His figures are as good as any horse in the race. Whitman’s Poetry is another dropping from MSW. He gets a jockey switch to Johnny V and cuts back in distance to where he ran his best race. Banco Dinero had a good debut race in 2015 and should improve today.
Race 6 6-8-9
This race is honestly one tough puzzle. Constellation went for $800K by a sire with a $10K stud fee. The works say she’s ready. Sky My Sky has an abbreviated workout schedule but the last work sticks out. The Vapors was a $250K purchase. Cintron and Dutrow are a 31% combo.
Race 7 1-3-7
Bold Print was moved back to the dirt last out and ran a lifetime best. Looks primed for her first with winners. Sonora has been competitive in 2015 but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. Solid in the money play. Awesome News has plenty of speed and should be the one to catch.
Race 8 4-9-11 (14)
Offering Plan broke his maiden on the SAR turf, did reasonably well in the Pilgrim, and never got into the BC Juvenile Turf after stumbling out of the gate. The 7/5 odds are not attractive, but ignore Chade Brown returnees at your peril. Rectify returns off a short layoff for Mott and the workouts say ready to roll. Boston Strong takes the blinkers off. He has been knocking and may get in today. He Has Charm is a contender if he gets in.
Race 9 4-11-1-12
Empire Dreams is the longshot play of the day. He comes of of state-bred stakes and has a solid second at SAR. 11 of 14 in the money lifetime. Also has the best last race figure. Better than 20-1 ML. Mylute was overmatched in the Suburban but prior to that had figures that put him right in the mix. Bay of Plenty just lost to Honor Code who looks like the best of the handicap division. He was second in the Discovery last year so has the ability to go well at the distance and the level. Matrooh should get a good position even out of the 12 and is looking for two in a row at the same level.
Race 10 3-12-1
There is almost no horse without a chance in this race. Tapitry has been patiently handled by McGaughey and should run her top today. Greywalls just missed in her first with winners and has the fastest last race figure. Unbridled Sonya looked good with stakes horses on a yielding surface and should catch a firm turf today. That may allow her to ration her speed to the wire.
Race 11 11-7-1
Move Over Cuzco wired a OC $75K field and didn’t embarass himself in a stakes next out. Has the speed to get into it from the outside. Lawn Ranger is newly gelded and makes his 2015 debut at a distance where he’s already had a win. Drops out of graded stakes where he ran respectably. Watchyourownbobber and Crown the Kitten both look good in this spot.