Selections

Belmont July 11 – Early Daily Double

Update: I certainly handicapped the hell out of the first race. The fact that every NYRA handicapper seemed to be picking the 6 should have been a clue. The 3 was gasping in the stretch, a pretty negative sign if you ask me. The 5 looked like a horse that needed conditioning. I don’t generally prefer horses like the 6, but if there was ever a field designed for him to win, I guess this was it. In the second, the 7 powered past the first timer and went on to win comfortably. The 7 was close to a win bet and really ran like a favorite should. The 5 was acting up at the gate and finished well back. The 3 was with the leaders to the stretch, but gradually lost position. The 1 seemed to be getting significant action but was a total airball. I’d watch for the 2 next time – she made a minor move around the turn so perhaps she is returning to her winter form. So one out of two in the double that paid $20.20. 

Both races have two contenders that look very solid.

Based on Seth Abrams reminding me about Howard Sartin, I pulled out my copy of Modern Pace Handicapping and did the Sartin analysis for Race 1.

Horse                                                    EP            SP          AP          FX       

  1. I Want You to Know           57.86   57.02     57.31     57.54
  2. Sun Bear                                     57.78   56.41     56.87     56.67
  3. Rigby                                            58.21   57.54     57.79     58.38
  4. Straight Fox                             57.44   56.96     56.94     56.69
  5. Hope Still Springs                58.46   57.50     57.83     58.00
  6. Buckeye Heart                       57.96   57.29     57.51     57.25

In each of the Sartin calculations, either the 3 or the 5 is top or second best. So let’s construct our odds table. I’m going to make the 5 a slight favorite. He is the “new shooter” and would be best based on his Maryland races. He also picks up Irad Ortiz, one of the jockeys fighting for the riding title. The 3, 4, and 6 have some recent experience racing against each other and the results are a little ambiguous. What I like about the 3 is his win percentage – an eye-popping 13 for 33 – and his natural speed. You have to worry about him stealing the race.The 6 looks more like he prefers being close to the winner but not in front, so I’m going to discount his win potential. The 1 seems to have done his best running on the Aqueduct inner dirt, and I tend to discount those horses until they show potential on the Belmont surface. The 4 looks a cut below the 3, 5, and 6. The 2 is dropping in class, but he’s 3 for 53. I just can’t get past that stat.

Horse               My Win Odds     Bet Odds

  1.                          19-1                             NA
  2.                          30-1                             NA
  3.                            8-5                             5-2
  4.                          15-1                             NA
  5.                            6-5                             2-1
  6.                            9-1                          20-1

 

Fair Pay Exacta                1         2         3        4          5        6         

  1.                                                       NA     NA    NA    NA    NA
  2.                                            NA                NA    NA    NA    NA
  3.                                            NA    NA                86      10     50
  4.                                            NA    NA    NA               NA     NA
  5.                                            NA    NA        8     60                 38
  6.                                            NA    NA     57    NA                67

In the second it once again looks like a two-horse race, but being a MSW you have to consider potential chaos. The 3, Sublime, ran a new top last out and has had 47 days to recover. He geta the high-percentage combination of Kieran McLaughlin and Javier Castellano. The 7, Successful Runner, is a 6-start maiden with three seconds and three thirds. With only six starts you can’t label the horse as a professional maiden, but it is some cause for concern. The crowd is nowhere near done backing this horse, and she may be overbet. Still, she should be the controlling pace. The 1, Giant Slayer, came out first on the turf and wasn’t particularly inspiring, but the surface switch and the one race of experience certainly allow for win possibilities. The 2, Aggrandizement, seemed to be getting better in the winter but has been off 139 days. I’m going to take a stand against her.

The 4, Rare Eagle, has an excuse in his last (turf) but still doesn’t seem like a good win prospect. Could hit a back hole. The 5, Stockholder, is a one start maiden and her first was neither inspiring nor horrible. She wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I’d need more information than what is in the Racing Form. The 6, Sea Raven has nothing to recommend. The 8, Three Alarm Fire, is a first time with a small percentage on the morning line.

Horse                     My Win Odds                  Bet Odds          

  1.                                    9-1                                       18-1
  2.                                 15-1                                          NA
  3.                                    2-1                                          7-2
  4.                                 12-1                                          NA
  5.                                    9-1                                       18-1
  6.                                 30-1                                         NA
  7.                                    5-2                                         4-1
  8.                                  11-1                                        NA

I didn’t fill out all the spaces in the DD. Just those that have the win possible horses.

Daily Double Fair Pay

xxxxxxx1            2          3           4            5           6         7          8

  3.            70                       27                       70                   27
  5.            59                      19                        59                  19

There it is. Now go make some money.