Although history often gives one person all the credit for some thought or invention (have you ever heard of Antonio Meucci, the man who if he could have afforded to pay a $10 patent caveat might have kept Alexander Graham Bell from getting credit for inventing the telephone?) it’s mostly the case that there are almost no uniquely original ideas – someone else out there independently has the same thought.
When I was cutting my handicapping teeth, information in the Daily Racing Form (and Morning Telegraph in the eastern broadsheet edition) was far more limited than it is now. Given the paucity of specialized information – the current form has statistics it took me months of research to assemble every year – there was a much heavier reliance on “angles,” some of which are still in fashion. Speed dropping in class, turf to dirt or vice versa, straight maiden to maiden claimers, blinkers on or off, front wraps on, earnings per start and others are regularly considered in the selection process. The difference, of course, is that in the absence of Byers Figures or Tomlinson ratings or Jockey/Trainer statistics, the use of an angle years ago might often have been most of the reason for betting a horse.
Here are 10 lesser used angles that still have applicability today and generally stand on their own.
Two-year old, fastest half. Horses, much like humans, develop at different rates. Some two-year olds look practically full grown, with advanced athleticism and coordination. Still, it takes a race or two for horses to learn their racing lessons (as the comment “raced greenly” indicates) and more often than not young horses want to revert to instinct and race as fast as they can as far as they can. In the wild, the fastest, strongest horses escape the predators (closers do notoriously bad against mountain lions). Given that young horses will almost always race as maidens in 4-6 furlong sprints, the fastest half mile is a good indicator of development and talent, and having a learning experience gives the horse a substantial advantage. One caveat – be sure to make adjustments for track conditions.
Low percentage trainer, high percentage jockey. Not every trainer has the advantages afforded to Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert. Their third string horses are good enough to capture graded stakes, and they inevitably have a top three rider on their horse. Granted there are low percentage trainers who are simply bad horsemen, but there are also lower percentage trainers who are knowledgeable but relegated to managing horses from lesser stables. These trainers can wind up with horses of reasonable health and talent, and when they have a horse ready to pop they want to engage the best rider possible. In the same respect, riders at the top of the meet standings will often have their pick of runners, so when you see a top-jock contract to ride a lower level trainer’s horse, assume it is because the jockey believes it has a high probability of winning.
Lone speed. I’m not sure I’ve ever heard a foolproof explanation, but it is a fact that horses able to establish an unpressured lead will run farther than speed runners that are challenged. The strange thing is that a front runner can actually run slower fractions while being pressured and still fold like an accordion. The key is to look for races where one horse not only likes running to the front, but where none of the other horses have an interest in challenging the leader. Let’s look at the first race from Del Mar on September 2, a $12,500 claimer for three-year old fillies at six furlongs. The table below shows the running style (E=early speed, P=pace presser, S= sustained/closer) along with a speed rating (0 through 8, with 0 indicating no speed and 8 indicating high speed) for each horse.
| Horse | PP | RS |
| 1 Vegas Rules | 1 | EP5 |
| 2 Here Comes Bonnie | 2 | PS0 |
| 3 Warren’s Samantha | 3 | PS0 |
| 4 Dynamic Diva | 4 | PS1 |
| 5 Star Vesta | 5 | EP1 |
| 6 Unusual Jewel | 6 | PS0 |
| 7 Hidden Passion | 7 | EP5 |
| 8 Pumpkin Pie | 8 | EP2 |
| 9 Babyneedsnewshoes | 9 | P5 |
Two horses in the race had the style to be front-runners – the 1, Vegas Rules and the 7, Hidden Passion, with the 7 clearly the superior runner once race figures were taken into account. The 9, Babyneedsnewshoes looked like a good prospect to be sitting just behind the leaders. Of the remaining six runners, only the 5, Star Vesta had ever shown any early foot in a sprint, but Star Vesta’s last four races, although at a higher class, had been turf routes. No reason to expect Star Vesta to prompt the pace. Every other horse preferred the closing trip. In an act of what must have been divine intervention, on race day, the 7 and 9 scratched, leaving Vegas Rules as the total lone speed, and totally changing my betting strategy. Vegas Rules broke right on top, held a four length lead in a sensible :451, and won easily in sharp 1:10, paying $18.40 in the process.
Debuting three-year old has higher two-year old figure. This angle works best early in the year when horses are coming back from a winter break. Look for horses with two-year old figures higher (or almost as high) as the other three-year olds that already have been racing. One thing to consider is the class level of the returnee. Horses with straight maiden races as two-year olds returning as lower level maiden claimers, or allowance runners coming back in a cheaper claiming race might indicate a desire on the part of the trainer to move the horse out of his stable. It can signal a two-year old that didn’t develop much over the winter, so be wary of these horses. Look for horses coming back at a level where it appears the trainer has future plans for the horse.
Double class jump (either first off the claim or after a strong performance). Back in the ancient days of racing, horses that were claimed had to spend 30 days in “claiming jail,” meaning they had to race for a price higher than the claiming price if they were entered within that timeframe. Trainers looking for a quick return on investment would often race them up one level before the 30 days expired, but jumping a horse two or more levels up was usually a sign that the trainer expected a big effort. Today, when horses no longer have to serve the 30 day sentence, the move is even more powerful. Similarly, when a trainer double jumps a horse that wins or runs strongly, take it as a sign the horse is well intentioned.
The big hit in the win pool. Ever see a horse listed at 5-1 on the morning line open up at 8-5, only to see him drift up to close to the morning line odds and win? Often when a horse gets hit early the money is coming from the owner, the trainer, or a betting whale, and it can usually be taken as a sign someone knowledgeable thinks highly of the animal. Seeing a horse drift up or down gradually is usually more of an indication of crowd action. Why would you bet a large sum early instead of feeding it in a little at a time? Simple. The opening low odds will often induce the value bettors to look elsewhere for action, allowing the horse to finish at a more expected price. Similarly, when a horse gets one substantial injection of win money during the countdown to the post (especially when the injection comes after the horses step onto the track for the post parade) it is indicative of the same thing – someone is taken with the horse’s winning chances – and there may already be enough money in the pool to keep many in the crowd from noticing the large bet.
Unusual action in the exotic pools. Serious handicappers prefer doing their own work and making their own selections, but many in the crowd have neither the skill nor the time to effectively handicap a full card. Some people buy tip sheets, but I actually knew people who “charted” daily doubles and exactas – letting the so-called “smart money” do the work for them – and made money. Charting is simply the process of finding horses receiving heavier action in the combination pools than their odds would merit. Betting into the combination pools makes it easier for large bettors to muffle their action, and they have the potential of much higher return on their investment. After all, it’s a lot of effort (not to mention monotony) to watch the exacta payoffs rotate for 10 minutes, so there is a low expectation that many people would pay that close attention to prices. Some people I knew would bring stacks of printed matrices so they could enter every price for every daily double or exacta combination. Others would just focus on the first two or three favorites and look for the unexpectedly low payoffs, the “live” horses so to speak. This simple matrix for a hypothetical exacta illustrates the point. The row across the top would represent the odds of the winner, the column on the left the odds of the second place finisher, and the amounts in the boxes the payoffs.
First Horse
| 2-1 | 4-1 | 6-1 | 8-1 | |||
2-1 |
28 | 36 | 37 | |||
| 4-1 | 21 | 60 | 60 | |||
| 6-1 | 27 | 50 | 80 | |||
| 8-1 | 27 | 55 | 75 |
This abbreviated table shows that the horse with 8-1 tote board odds is paying the same as a horse with 6-1 odds under the 2-1 favorite, and far less than we would expect on top of the 2-1 favorite. We can certainly speculate that the 8-1 horse is well intentioned today.
Horses for courses. It’s a well known fact that certain horses become super horses on race tracks that they favor. Most readers will remember Fourstardave, the “Sultan of Saratoga.” From 1987 to 1994 – eight straight years – Dave won a race at Saratoga, including five straight years where he won stakes races. On the other hand, he was something like 0-20 at Aqueduct. I’m not sure anyone has an explanation for why Dave favored Saratoga, but it didn’t take long for the crowd to embrace him as one of their all time favorites, and for the track to name a stakes race after him. Saratoga still has a reputation as being a track where previous success is often a harbinger of future success. The same is true for many other tracks. Some horses revel in Belmont’s sandy surface, while others despise it. Aqueduct’s inner dirt track is so different that I’ll usually discount horses that have not shown a liking for it, and similarly discount horses with good form on the inner dirt moving to the main track. I recently spent a few days at Del Mar, and it seemed there were a few race winners each day that ran new tops. Churchill Downs is famous for bringing out either the best or worst in a horse. Plus, trainers are very aware of which horses in their care favor a particular track and will often point them toward that meet. Whatever track you play, consider any horse that has shown partiality to that track, even if it might not appear to be prime physical condition, and vice versa – deeply discount horses that are proven to dislike a track.
Competent trainer from smaller circuit ships in. It is often the case that horses with good connections get overbet and horses with unfamiliar connections are ignored. But the fact that the connections may not be fixtures on a particular circuit does not mean they should be overlooked. On the contrary, trainers who are highly competent and respected on their home circuits can return big dividends, especially if you can find evidence of trainers who have a history of success when shipping from the smaller track to the larger one. Molly Pearson has been training for 30 years, mostly at secondary tracks like Turf Paradise, Arapahoe Park, and the California Fairs, and has consistently posted winning percentages between 20 and 25. In her career she’s had multiple graded stakes placings. In her element, she’s a highly competent and successful trainer. She ventures occasionally into the larger California tracks, including Hollywood Park and Del Mar, and when she does it is often with a horse that deserves a second look. Pack Your Bags ran in the 6th at Del Mar, a $20,000 claimer on September 1, going off at odds of 20-1.
9 Pack Your Bags B. g. 7 (Feb) L 118
20-1 Own: Eli Diamant $18,000 Sire: Flying Continental (Flying Paster) $3,500 Life 54 10 8 8 $306,373 91 D.Fst 13 4 1 2 $115,938 87
Black, Green Yoke On Front, Green Dam:Ultimate Honor (Norquestor) 2012 8 2 0 1 $48,121 87 Wet(355) 1 0 0 0 $1,271 75
Br: Summer Mayberry (Cal) 2011 13 2 2 2 $89,448 85 Synth 26 4 4 2 $97,020 86
BISONO A (26 5 2 3 .19) 2012: (125 10 .08) Tr: Pearson Molly J(3 0 0 1 .00) 2012:(135 31 .23) Dmr 4 1 1 0 $26,900 86 Turf(282) 14 2 3 4 $92,144 91
27Jly12-5Dmr fst 6½f :23.16 :46.00 1:10.42 1:16.59 3ÎClm 20000(20-18) 73 4 3 1hd 1hd 21/2 63 Fukunaga Y L120 21.90 89-09 Inside, lost whip 1/8 9
1Jly12- 8ArP fst 7f :21.61 :43.61 1:08.30 1:22.32 3ÎFrntRange40k 59 7 3 37 33 741/2 8103/4 Vicchrilli R R LB122 15.20 85-12 Mild bid, gave way 8
3Jun12- 9ArP fst 6f :21.65 :44.07 :56.00 1:08.53 3ÎArpSprint40k 75 10 3 441/2 44 25 39 Vicchrilli R R LB122 8.40 89-12 2p,outfinished 11
Previously trained by Arnett Jon G 2012(as of 4/29): ( 104 15 18 10 0.14 )
29Apr12-7PrM mys 6f :22.07 :44.84 :57.26 1:10.22 3ÎClm 23000(23-21) 75 1 1 1hd 1hd 3nk 42 Tohill K S LB120 *2.10 83-17 Dueled, gave way 6
25Mar12-9Sun fst 61/2f :21.96 :44.02 1:08.38 1:15.12 3ÎBThomasMem100k 63 1 3 11/2 31/2 441/2 6121/4 Medellin A L120 13.50 82-10 Angld out3/16,gave way 7
Yes, Pack Your Bags had the Molly Pearson angle and that may have been enough to back the horse, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out two other things reinforced the horse’s potential. First, Pack Your Bags had historical success on synthetic tracks; moreover, he had a win and a second from four starts at Del Mar. Second, his last race at Del Mar might be better than it looked. After leading to the stretch, the jockey lost his whip, and yet the horse only lost 2½ lengths in the last eighth of a mile. So we have a competent trainer bringing in a horse that favors the track and sitting on what may be his best race in a while. Pack Your Bags pressed the pace, took the lead in deep stretch and held off the place horse by the slimmest of margins.
Scratch the stronger part of an entry. This is a very simple angle to play. When a trainer has an entry (neither horse can be on the also eligible list) and he scratches what looks to be the stronger half of the entry, assume the remaining entrant is live. The concept is positive trainer intention. He wouldn’t scratch the stronger horse if he wasn’t confident the weaker looking horse had a good chance of putting in a top effort. And, by scratching the stronger entrant, he is sure to bring the odds up. The exception, of course, is if the veterinarian or the stewards scratch the horse.