Intangibles

You know what they say. The rain in Saratoga falls mainly on the turf.

You never know what kind of year it will be. It could be like 2011 when Hurricane Irene moved in, or it could have 25 days of good northeast New York weather. In any case look for these things:

1. Find turf horses that have been able to maintain their training and race schedule. Trainers carefully map out a turf season, and when rain intervenes it can create setbacks for a horse.
2. Everyone knows that the inside posts are an advantage on the Saratoga inner turf. They are also an advantage on the Mellon Turf.  On both ovals the highest winning post position for routes was the 1. Interestingly, the five post had the second highest win percentage on the Mellon and the third highest percentage on the Inner turf. Perhaps the five hole allows horses that break alertly to easily get position, and horses that pull back to place themselves where they want.
3. In sprint races on the Mellon Turf (the inner turf doesn’t have sprints) post position did not seem to be much of a determining factor. The highest win percentage came from the 4 post, with the 8 post second and the 7, 2,3, 5 and 6 all about the same. This says that in turf sprints, find the best horse. It was the case that post positions outside of the 8 had poor winning percentages.
4. Pay close attention to where the rail is set. For those of you who use Formulator, it gives the rail distance and the run up for turf races. As I mentioned in my turf post, a nine foot rail translates to an extra 30 feet in distance, or about seven tenths of a second. That can be the difference between finding a solid win bet or settling on a different horse.

Post position on the main track seemed close to irrelevant. For sprints, other than the 4 post at 20%, all the other posts down to the 9 were about the same. The sprint angles are pretty obvious. If you horse is a front runner, closer to the rail is an advantage. If your horse is a tracker or closer, one of the middle post positions will probably keep the horse out of trouble. On the other hand, the inside posts could be a disadvantage to more sustained horses.

For route races, It was the 5 post that stuck out. Otherwise the same principles as for sprints were in play.

Finally, let’s talk about the “Graveyard of Champions.” Ever since Man O’War’s defeat at the hands of Upset, the media stamped the Spa with that label. The great Secretariat was beaten by Onion, adding to the legend of Allen Jerkens as the Giant Killer. Indeed, local scribe Bill Heller even wrote a book called Graveyard of Champions. You know what one of life’s major truisms is, don’t you?

If I read it on the internet, it must be true.

The fact is that Saratoga is about average in terms of winning favorites, and it is about 1-9 that this year favorites will win 32-35% of the races. Will there be upsets? Of course. Will there be monumental upsets? Without a doubt. But don’t bet against a favorite just because of some moniker pasted on the track by the media.

My Saratoga preview is not exhaustive. As I’ve mentioned, there are a lot of instantaneous statistics available in the Daily Racing Form, Brisnet, and Timeform. I just wanted to give the bigger picture and maybe give you a leg up on the crowd. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to ask them.