An interesting field for this year’s Derby. There are no standouts, like American Pharoah was, but there are a few horses with enough talent to make an impact here.

Looking at Lee. On the positive side, he’s a plodding closer, which means the one post isn’t going to hurt him as much as if he was a speed horse, but on the negative side, he’s going to have to circle the field to be a factor at the end. The rule of thumb is that you don’t consider deep closers in the win slot. He’s also not cracked the win code since August at Ellis Park. I could put him in the 3rd or 4th spot, but I’m not seeing anything better for him.

Thunder Snow. He is out of serious consideration for me for a few reasons. First, from the two post he really doesn’t have much of a choice other than to use his speed early. Second, it’s just a rarity that horses can ship from Dubai and run well in the Derby.  Third, the word on him is that he has the sort of high leg action associated more with turf horses. Finally, his pace figures don’t suggest he’s as fast as a few of the others in here.

Fast and Accurate. He may be the screw horse in the race. His trainer has already announced that he’ll vie for the early lead, and it may be the case that he will set extra fast fractions. If he does, he may wind up compromising some of the other horses that want to be toward the front, and maybe even upping the chances of the closers. Like I said, his primary role is to screw up the race. Otherwise, he’s a pitch for me.

Untrapped. He’s another one that might be compromised by the inside post. He’s got decent tactical speed, but doesn’t need the lead. It’s possible he might be able to establish position, but it’s just as possible he gets shuffled back. The blinkers come off today, and although Asmussen has had some success with that, it should be a critical move in this race.  His pace figures put him in the middle of this group. At best he’s a backholer, although it’s hard to imagine him really being a serious factor.

Always Dreaming. He was always targeted to run to the front early, and given the post position there is little doubt that will be the strategy. He’s the co-second choice on the morning line off the strength of his Florida Derby win, and while he was impressive winning that race, I remember thinking what an odd finish it was. The current downside on the horse is that he seems to be over energetic, and the concern is that between expending extra energy before the race, he may shoot his wad early in the Derby. The Toddster has been working the horse with a draw rein in an effort to control the horse better, but the gimmicky solution may portend trouble on Saturday. Still, Pletcher is a master at improving horses rapidly, and this was a prime example. He didn’t break his maiden until January at Tampa, won an optional claiming race next, and then popped in the Florida Derby. One thing I thought about before that race was, how could this horse be 5/2, but I didn’t think the field was that strong. I looked at the dirt races from that day, and they seemed to either be won by front runners or deep closers, and in the Florida Derby the top two finishers were basically there around the track, while Gunnevera came from well off the pace, so track bias doesn’t seem to be in play. The pace was reasonable, neither particularly fast or slow. Always Dreaming ran a huge new top in that race, and given that he has to be in the mix. But given the potential of a lot of speed in here, I’ve got reason to pause. I’m not likely to put him in the top slot, especially at the odds.

State of Honor. He got a good figure off that second in the Florida Derby, but prior to that his figures suggest a top half runner at best. Perhaps a backhole prospect.

Girvin. His style has him closing from at least behind half of the field, but all we’ve all been reading about his foot problems and missed training time. He did meet the start at a two year old criterion. I have a fairly strict standard that horses that get sidetracked and miss training time because of nagging injuries get seriously downgraded. I’m going to toss him in this race.

Hence. He bombed in the Southwest, but won the minor prep Sunland Derby. That race turned out to possibly by stronger than expected when Irap came back to win the Blue Grass. I’m not sure exactly what to do with that race, but the pace figure came up well below the better contenders. Given his deep closing style, I can’t see him better than a backhole.

Irap. He won the Blue Grass at long odds as a maiden, although the time was not particularly snappy. One thing I know about Doug O’Neill and Paul Reddam is that they will never shy away from a challenge. That doesn’t mean it will always work out like the Blue Grass, but the fact that he is here always has to be taken seriously. Still, he looks overmatched here.

Gunnevera. Had this horse won the Florida Derby he might have been one of the choices in the Kentucky Derby. The question is, can he be forgiven for the Florida Derby flop? I’m going to say, even if the answer is yes, he’s a deep closer and I’m just not going to put that sort of horse on top. Still, at 15-1, he gets on the potential list of in-the-money horses.

Battle of Midway. If he wins the race, he’ll break the curse of Apollo. I’m not impressed by the final time in the Santa Anita Derby, but I was impressed at how Battle of Midway seemed to be coming back at the end.  Still, the pace numbers say that he’d have to improve to be the winner. I’ll put him in the in-the-money category.

Sonneteer. He is a maiden, although he’s been moderately competitive in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Even if you don’t believe the field is the strongest ever, it’s hard to imagine a maiden winning the race. He’s a toss.

J Boys Echo. He is one of the forgotten horses in the race. He came to the fore in the Gotham, but he bobbled and was bumped at the start of the Blue Grass and probably lost all chance. I think he’s one of the horses that may improve, I think he’ll be generally ignored in the betting, and I’ll have some minor action on him.

Classic Empire. The morning line favorite, and the reigning champion of his class. The horse is immensely talented, but he did miss training time during the Derby trail, first with a foot access and then with a balky back. He’s always been a headstrong horse.  In the Hopeful he wheeled at the start (wheeling at the start means he took a sharp right or left and was pulled up), but came back to win the BC Juvenile and earn two year old champion honors. He overcame his problems to win the Arkansas Derby, although not in a particular impressive time. This actually could be seen in a positive light. He certainly hasn’t shot his wad or peaked too soon. But on the other hand he went well off his training schedule and only had two prep races this spring. Given his breeding – not ideal for the mile and a quarter but not a real negative either – and the abbreviated training and prep race schedule, I wouldn’t put him in the favorite’s role but it would be foolish to say he doesn’t have a good chance to win.

McCracken. He is the co-second choice, although I think he may be overrated at those odds. His 2017 prep schedule was more abbreviated than I would like to see, and the choice of preps was less than I would have liked as well. He’s only got two preps this year, one less than the magic minimum of three preps that most of the recent Derby winners have had. He was supposed to race in the Tampa Bay Derby but came up with a minor ankle injury. I just have issues with horses that miss training or preps, and while McCracken has some positives – his post position is good for his running style and he was undefeated until the Bluegrass – that Bluegrass race was perhaps a little duller than I’d prefer. He’s in the mix, but in my opinion a minor win prospect.

Tapwrit. He is the second Pletcher runner in the race, and  while his prep schedule was reasonable, the clunker in the Blue Grass puts him in a worse light coming into the Derby. Still, he’s been getting rave reviews in the morning, and that at least gives me some pause. I think I may put him as part of the in-the-money group.

Irish War Cry. Right now he’s the horse that interests me most. He popped a very nice race in the Holy Bull, but then came back in the Fountain of Youth and ran inexplicably bad. Trainer Graham Motion’s was perplexed after the FOY and could only speculate that he bounced off the heavy new top in the Holy Bull or never quite took to the track. People described the GP track as deep and cuppy that day, but Motion has described the CD track as being very similar to Fair Hill where Irish War Cry trains. Motion gave him a month off, and then switched riders to Rajiv Maragh. That seemed to do the trick because he ran well in the Wood. Maragh barely moved a muscle down the backstretch, and drove him vigorously down the stretch, but he looked like he finished with something left in the tank. That showed me he can relax and not be too headstrong. He was on the track on Tuesday and Motion described him as being “on the muscle,” but he came back on Wednesday far more relaxed, so I have no issue with him being likely to expend a lot of nervous energy before the race. His breeding is impeccable, he should be able to put himself wherever he needs to be from the 17 post, and if he runs his best, he has excellent prospects.

Gormley. His win in the SA Derby was ambiguous to me. The finish time was a lot slower than some of the other preps, but he has run better so maybe it was just the track condition. Still, I think the better California horses weren’t in that race, so I’m more inclined to give the SA Derby less credit. His breeding for the mile and a quarter is very good, and his prep schedule is enough to qualify him. I could be wrong, but I’m limiting Gormley to an in-the-money finish.

Practical Joke. He’s been a little bit of the wise guy horse. He ran well as a two year old, winning the Hopeful, the Champagne, and running a decent third in the BC Juvenile after having a little trouble at the start. He was impressive  in the Florida Derby on that tiring track. One negative is that he only started twice as a three year old, and historically three or more starts seems to be necessary for a win, but if any trainer can get a horse ready off a shorter prep season, it’s Chad Brown. He’s nicely bred for the mile and a quarter and he’s progressed beautifully up to the Derby. He is the longshot prospect for me.

Patch. He’s had three starts, all in 2017, for Todd Pletcher. If anyone else was the trainer, he’d be a quick pitch, but given the Toddster is in charge, he gets a second look. His Louisiana Derby race was good, but I just don’t think he has enough of a foundation to make an impact here, and the 20 post doesn’t help.

Win Prospects

• Irish War Cry
• Practical Joke
• Classic Empire

Potential Exacta/In-the-Money Horses

• Always Dreaming
• Gunnevera
• Battle of Midway
• J Boys Echo
• McCracken
• Tapwit
• Gormley

Backhole (3rd or 4th) at Best

• Lookin at Lee
• Untrapped
• State of Honor
• Hence
• Irap

Pitch

• Thunder Snow
• Fast and Accurate
• Girvin
• Sonneteer
• Patch

And the winner is….Irish War Cry

What a tough couple of days it’s been at BEL. You’d be almost better off seeing what I like and picking another horse.

Race 1

• 6  Northern Screamer
• 4  Midnight Candy
• 3  Perina’s Pride

Race 2

• 1/1A  Set the Trappe/Abdaar
• 5  Kohlhase
• 8  Sammy Wonder Stone
• Secondary (4, 6)

Race 3

• 4  Night Prowler
• 6  Conquest Typhoon
• 5  Gold Shield

Race 4

•  1/1A  Boule/Dovecote
• 2  Inflexibility
• 8  Miss Munnings
• 10  Liam’s World
• Secondary (5)

Race 5

• 2  Dogtown
• 6  Hammerin Aamer
• 7  Roman Revival
• Secondary (1, 5)

Race 6

• 8  Dreamy Margarita
• 4  Questeq
• 6  Hope’s Roar
• Secondary (5)

Race 7

• 2  Glory to Kitten
• 5  Taralena
• 6  Al Hayyah
• 8  Flattermefabulous

Race 8

• 5  Gypsum Johnny
• 4  Drover Crazy
• 1  West Hills Giant
• Secondary (3, 6)

Race 9

• 10  Samodiva
• 1  Paz the Wine
• 3  Jazzy Juder
• Secondary (5, 9)

Seemed like it was better to come from off the pace  Saturday. The track seemed to have some give in it. We’ll see if it tightens up Sunday.

Race 1

• 1  Rally Cry
• 6  Testosterstone
• 5  Adulator
• Secondary (4)
• The favorites may turn out to be too strong. There is a lot speed here, and Diversify may be the fastest of them all. But I’m leaning toward Rally Cry. He made an impressive 2017 debut, and I believe he has improved from 3 to 4 and should run better today. Testosterstone has been in good form and comes off a win in the Mr. Sinatra. He seems to represent the value.

Race 2

• 5  Pimm’s Cup
• 7  Mission Trip
• 8  Steady Heat
• Secondary (4)
• This is a competitive race. I’m taking a chance on a horse that should be a longshot but is listed at 4-1 on the ML, Pimm’s Cup.  I think his odds will go up by post time. He came out last year at Saratoga and had no chance after breaking poorly. He drops into a MCL today and it looks like McPeek has been seeking a spot for him. He’s been gelded since last year and picks up first Lasix today. Mission Trip has run two good races at the level and should  go favorite today. Steady Heat improved in the drop from MSW to MCL and figures to be part of the picture today.

Race 3

• 4  Big Handsome
• 5  Delphina
• 2  Undulated
• Secondary (3)
• Big Handsome should have no trouble stepping up to the ALW level or running at the six furlongs. Any improvement puts her well on top. Delphina was overmatched in the Bourbon Oaks, but prior to that demolished a field at TP. Looks strong today. Undulated should enjoy the return to 6F. She’s a stakes winner in Canada and just missed in a Futurity at Laurel as a 2YO.

Race 4

• 9  Magsamelia
• 3  Reckless Humor
• 6  Summer House
• No real insight here. The favorites look tough and the others will have to show something more than what seems to be available in the past performances.

Race 5

• 3  Wage Acceleration
• 5  Polar City
• 6  Peace Speaker
• 1A  Army Mule
• This is one of those MSW’s for lightly raced three year olds. Wage Acceleration ran well first time out for Chad Brown and has been working regularly for his return. Polar City goes first time for Mark Casse. He has a series of nice workouts for his debut. Should show some speed today. Peace Speaker had a nice debut at GP for Kieran McLaughlin and should improve with that start under his belt. Army Mule is the offering from the still potent combination of Pletcher/Velasquez. Good workout pattern and good breeding for the distance.

Race 6

• 11  Tiz a Chance
• 7  Aragonite
• 3  West Hills Giant
• Secondary (4, 6)
• While I’m a little hesitant to go all the way to the outside, Tiz a Chance should enjoy his return to BEL and while the 6F might be a little short for him, I like the running style and his recent figures. Aragonite has been off a while but has run well fresh before. He should enjoy the return to the turf. West Hills Giant scratched to run in this spot. He’s had a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle, but is regularly in the money.  Both Grand Sky and Irish Prayer can’t be disregarded.

Race 7

• 10  Mama Joyce
• 2  Littlemissbusiness
• 1  Maria Got Even
• Secondary (4)
• Mama Joyce ran well in the Karakorum Elektra stakes after returning to the Gary Contessa barn. Lightly raced filly is a win type , fits the conditions and should be in a good position turning for home. Littlemissbusiness should enjoy the return to BEL. Drop in price should help today. Maria Got Even won at a claiming price just below this level at today’s distance and she was respectable when she jumped up to  the OC$62,500 level. She’s got big outs today.

Race  8

• 3  Hip Hop N Jazz
• 5  Fair Point
• 1  Miss Ella
• Secondary (6)
• Hip Hop N Jazz hasn’t been out of the money in her eight race career and seems to have taken a liking to the turf.  This should be her sternest test but her turf numbers put her right in the mix. Fair Point makes her 2017 debut after finishing last year with a win and a very close second in a pair of Grade 3’s. Has the lifetime best figures in this field. Miss Ella also makes her 2017 debut and left 2016 with a very close second to Fair Point. Definitely an interesting race.

Race 9

• 1  Homewood Point
• 12  Harlan’s Hunch
• 10  Britain
• Secondary (6, 9)

Opening day at Belmont was  a fairly formful day, with one glaring exception. The track also played relatively normal. Tough card again today.

Race 1

• 6  Z Town
• 1  Killybegs Captain
• 4 Dhamaan
• Z Town is the primary speed in this race and that puts him on top. Killybegs Captain made a big improvement when moved back to the dirt and should be in a good striking position coming into the stretch. Dhamaan looks like the horse most likely to pick up the pieces if the speed breaks down.

Race 2

• 8  New York’s Finest
• 5  Astrologist
• 7  Freud’s Friend
• Secondary (1, 2, 4)
• I went back and forth on this race before settling on New York’s Finest. He made a nice run in breaking his maiden in a turf sprint at SAR, and one of my favorite angles is horses that had two year old figures close to the three year old figures of other runners. Linda Rice is better than average off the layoff and in turf sprints. Astrologist had all sorts of trouble in his 2017 debut, but still managed to run a new top. If he continues to improve he’s a contender. Freud’s Finest seems more suited to the turf and he should improve from 2016.

Race 3

• 1  Tiz Long Gone
• 6  Tug of War
• 4  Non Stop
• Secondary (3, 5)
• Tiz Long Gone has clearly been over his head in stakes races, but based on the success he had prior to that he should stand above this group. Perhaps the drop can be seen as negative, but it’s hard to discount him here. Tug of War is a veteran campaigner now conditioned by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s been a reliable runner and his last race says he is still a competitor.  Non Stop is another veteran campaigner who could have a say in the outcome off his best race.

Race 4

• 6  Wanztbwicked
• 3  Storm Team
• 4  Shidoshi
• Secondary (7, 9)

Race 5

• 4  River Date
• 2  Hard Study
• 6  Admiral Blue
• Secondary (3)
• River Date should be the speed of the speed and has been in good condition. Shows an affinity for BEL. Hard Study has been a consistent runner. The Pletcher/Velasquez combo usually indicates a serious intent. Admiral Blue has competitive with better and fits well in this group.

Race 6

• 6  Tricked Up
• 8  Snap Decision
• 7  Flying Bullet
• Secondary (1)
• Tricked Up goes for Chad Brown who is always dangerous with his turf runners. Brown is actually very good with first time blinkers. Snap Decision raced well in the Palm Beach after breaking his maiden and McGaughey is good off the short layoff. Flying Bullet is moving up a bit but he seems to be on the improve.

Race 7

• 6  Downtown at Noon
• 2  Sunset Ridge
• 9  Kinky Sox
• Secondary (1, 7)

Race 8

• 8  Calgary Cat
• 1  Kharafa
• 3  Siding Spring
• 5  Disco Partner
• Calgary Cat ran commendably in the BC Turf Sprint last year and has a graded stakes win to his credit. Kharafa is a NY bred competitive in these lesser stakes with open company. Last year he made his debut in this race, finishing five lengths behind the winner, but he’s shown the ability to run well off the layoff. Loves the turf at BEL. Sliding Spring should be the front runner here and has wired fields at 7 1/2 furlongs. If he has things his own way on the front he’ll be dangerous. Disco Partner is another one with a liking for the BEL turf and is one for two at the distance. Certainly fits well from the class perspective.  Make no mistake. This is a competitive group and value should be your guide.

Race 9

• 12  Aktabantay
• 1  Chamois
• 10 Monster Mash
• 2  Power Nap

Opening day at Belmont. Don’t have high expectations until the form settles.

Race 1

• 6  Thebigfundamental
• 5  Myakka River
• 4  Spring On Curlin
• Secondary (7)

Race 2

• 6  Set the Trappe
• 8  Saratoga Mischief
• 7  Open Bar

Race 3

• 1  Minerology
• 2  Mr. Dougie Fresh
• 5  Hemsworth

Race 4

• 8  Bob
• 4  Circumnavigator
• 1  Crawfish Shorts
• Secondary (5)

Race 5

• 1  Marriage Fever
• 5  Match Up
• 2  Praetereo
• Secondary (6)

Race 6

• 12  Epping Forest
• 2  Fire Key
• 4  Shimmering Moon
• Secondary (5, 1)

Race 7

• 12  Thundering Sky
• 5  Take These Chains
• 2  Rumble Doll
• 6  King’s Ghost
• (secondary (4, 8)

Race 8

• 13  Weekend Hideaway
• 7  Celtic Chaos
• 4  Ostrolenka
• Secondary (11, 1, 3)

Race 9

• 3  Frost Wise
• 1  Dream a Little
• 7  Summer Sweet
• 9  Hollywood Cat
• Secondary (5, 8)

It’s closing day at the Big A and I think everyone is looking forward to the opening of Belmont. Based on today’s card,  Aqueduct is leaving with a whimper, not a bang. Tough to find any prices on today’s card.

Race 1

• 1  Motown Sound
• 4  One Sided
• 5  Big Discovery
• Secondary (3)
• Nothing special here. The top three choices look toughest, and the bottom two horses on the ML look like they belong there.

Race 2

• 7  Dixie Runner
• 2  Nominal Dollars
• 4  Smokey Brown
• Secondary (1, 3)
• Dixie Runner has all the speed here and has been running with better. Looks deserving of favoritism. Nominal Dollars has been running well above this level and seemed to improve when moved back to the turf. He’s more of a closer and may not have any pace to run at, so he’s a bit of a chance here. Smokey Brown is not much of a win type but he is solidly in the money.

Race 3

• 4  Dolphus
• 2  Splashtastic
• 1  Economic Model
• While Economic Model will likely go favorite on the basis of his graded stakes resume, but I’m going to take a stand against him with Dolphus who ran well in the Stymie. Jimmy Jerkens has been fairly hot lately. Splashtastic is better than what he showed in the Stymie and I’m looking for him to be a factor today.

Race 4

• 4  Fifty Five
• 1  Dynatail
• 2  Party Boat
• Fifty Five should be the favorite off her win in the Florida Oaks but could be vulnerable given her closing style. Dynatail comes out of the same race as the top choice, and just like that race will have to be caught. Might have a better chance at AQU. Party Boat is solid given her graded stake credentials.

Race 5

• 2  New York Bourbon
• 6  No Lunks
• 4  Flatterfly
• Secondary (3, 7)
• New York Bourbon drops in price and has shown the best speed in the field. Better chances in this group. No Lunks is dropping out of MSW into the claiming ranks. He should fit better in this field. Flatterfly ran well when moved to the main.

Race 6

• 6  Quasney’s Angel
• 7  Wink at Me
• 3  My Ekati Cat
• Secondary (4, 9)
• Quasney’s Angel was jumped up in claiming price after Persaud grabbed her, and drops back in price today. Wink at Me was taken by Gary Gullo in January after finishing up the track in her first with winners. She had trouble in that race and should be more competitive today. My Ekati Kat just broke her maiden and should be in good condition for today’s affair.

Race 7

• 9  Alabama Bound
• 4 Puparee
• 8  Khaleesi Kat
• 1  Pop Singer
• Secondary (7)
• Alabama Bound  has had success at this level and is only on her third after breaking her maiden. Puparee has a pretty good win percentage and seemed to have improved this year at GP. Off her best, she’s in this mix. Khaleesi Kat makes her return off a win in a $50K claimer last November over this turf. Likes the surface, likes the distance. Pop Singer goes for Linda Rice who is 30% off the long layoff. Looks better meant for the turf.

Race 8

• 7  Gold for the King
• 1  Reason to Soar
• 4  T Loves a Fight
• Secondary (5, 6)
• In this competitive race the horses likely to get bet look best. Plenty of speed in here, so tough one to predict.

Race 9

• 5  Final Flurry
• 8  Patience Love
• 2 Schmiss
• Secondary (4)
• The top two morning line choices look tough in this one. Schmiss is well bred for the turf and for the distance and goes for the Linda Rice barn that is very good with first timers.

Race 1

• 6  Tahoe Tigress
• 3  Little Bear Cat
• 1  Palladian Bridge
• Little Bear Cat is likely to go favorite and has a consistent string of good figures, but I’m looking at Tahoe Tigress in the win slot. This race has a plethora of speed with 5 of the 6 runners preferring to be on or near the lead. If the race breaks down, it looks like the horse coming from off the pace is Tahoe Tigress.  She was claimed two back by Jeremiah Englehart who jumped her into a restricted stakes. She was overmatched there, but returns at a level where she’ll be much more competitive. She was a consistent runner with good figures last year, and if Englehart has her straightened out, she’ll be worth a look. Palladian Bridge has some consistent figures and has shown an ability to lay close to the pace and run well in the stretch.

Race 2

• 6  Sweetrayofsunshine
• 7  Spectacular Flash
• 4  Julie D
• Sweetrayofsunshine is two for two over the AQU main and she comes off a strong second on the inner. Perhaps a bit of a negative drop, but best last race figure suggests she’s a serious contender. Spectacular Flash was very wide in the Videogenic Stakes and faded in the stretch, but looked good in winning at this level two back. Julie D makes the right drop after flopping at a higher claiming level.

Race3

• 3  Bird’s Eye View
• 4  Secretary at War
• 5  Frostmourne
• Secondary (6)
• Jimmy Jerkens has brought his horses to NY in winning shape, making Secretary at War very dangerous in this spot, and Frostmourne has already won a restricted stakes at BEL and looks well-conditioned for his 2017 debut. Still, I’m looking at taking a chance with Bird’s Eye View. He’s got a good closing kick and is graded stake placed. He’ll need some pace to run at, but considering he’s previously beaten Royal by Nature he is not outless here. A lot may depend on the ride he gets from Maragh.

Race 4

• 2  Instant Replay
• 5  Our Caravan
• 3  Global Positioning
• Secondary (4, 8)
• Instant Replay runs well at the mile. He didn’t run well last out on the turf, but before that ran well at this distance on the inner. The concern is the trainer and jockey. Giglio is 0 for 19 this year, and jockey Reyes is at 6% for the year, but the class drop and the return to dirt should help. Our Caravan has a win on the main and  has succeeded at the distance. Another that was a bit over his head last out but is in the proper spot today.

Race 5

• 3  Brewing
• 1  Sir Bond
• 5  Gentrify
• Secondary (4, 6)
• This is really any horse’s race. Charlton Baker claimed Brewing last August, laid him off for seven months and returned him on the inner where he didn’t show great interest. His second race in the slop was much improved, and he returns to the level closer to his claim price today. Third off the layoff could lead to success. Sir Bond was claimed by RuRod last out and he is 38% first off the claim. Never been out of the money on the main and has been successful at the distance. Gentrify is all the speed here, and that can make him very dangerous.

Race 6

• 1  Heldatgunpoint
• 10  Source Control
• 8  Zaguri
• Secondary (2, 3, 4)
• Heldatgunpoint ran a little better than looked first time out. Frankly, the ride he got from Rosario was no help. He broke with the field, immediately started dropping back and lost touch around the turn, finally getting into it in the stretch when he had lost all chance. He gets a jockey switch and a weight break with low percentage rider Addiel Ayala. He could be chancy, but at the odds, I’m willing to give the horse one more shot to impress. Source Control wasn’t successful until he dropped to the $40K claiming level and ran well in his last on the inner when fitted with blinkers. Goes back to running with 3YOs today and that should be a positive. Zaguri turns back in distance and adds blinkers today.

Race 7

• 1  Clutch Cargo
• 3  Jacala
• 10  Mr. Harlan
• This is a race that seems to have some obvious choices but a lot of unknown runners. Clutch Cargo (I admit I am old enough to remember watching Clutch Cargo when it was originally shown) came from well out to break his maiden at BEL, and had one race on the inner back in January. Mike Hushion decided to wait until the turf opened to run him again, and he’s had a steady work tab in prep for this. Jacala ships up from GP where he had been racing  well. He’s in today with state-breds and that should work in his favor. Mr. Harlan is only 1 for 20, but has three second place finishes in a row. In this field he has prospects to be in the picture.

Race 8

• 4  Noble Freud
• 6  Bluegrass Flag
• 2  Frosty Gal
• Secondary (1)
• Noble Freud ran big first time out and will almost certainly be the heavy choice. However, today she will have strong competition on the front end in the form of Bluegrass Flag. The latter will give the favorite all she can handle on the front end, and the two of them may just dual the entire race.  The upset possibility is Frosty Gal, and at 12-1 she may pick up all the pieces if the front two fry each other on the front end. Has to be used in the verticals.

Race 9

• 3  Smarter
• 11  Bootlegger
• 5  Piazza Del Campo
• Smarter ships up from GP. He’s been gelded since his last. He’s had two ugly starts in his two races, and with a better beginning he’s got good prospects at what could be a decent price. Bootlegger goes second time for Mott. In his first start he bumped the gate slightly on the break, never really was able to get into the race, had to circle the field, but finished with enthusiasm. With a clean break he could establish position early and close by the field. Piazza del Campo has been running competitively on the turf, although he seems more likely in the backholes than the win slot.

Race 1

• 2  Stylish Quality
• 5  Posse Needed
• 1  Knarsdale
• It’s going to be tough to find any odds in this race. Stylish Quality popped a big one first time out. She’s best if she runs her best. Posse Needed had some trouble getting going in her maiden voyage, but has been working well for her return. Knarsdale is a FTS from the James Jerkens barn who has a nice, regular work pattern for her debut.

Race 2

• 1  Gee’n Tee
• 7  Undercover Agent
• 9  Greenhouse Effect
• Secondary (2, 3)
• There aren’t many price prospects today, so I’m looking at a flyer with Gee’n Tee. Considering he’s lost his first two races by a combined total of 75 lengths, I might be crazy, but he has a couple of positives. He’s dropping out of MSW into the claiming ranks, and that is always a powerful move. He also showed a little bit more speed in his last race than the previous effort. Finally, he has strong turf breeding and strong breeding for the distance. It’s not a particularly strong field, and while he may not be the best bet today, he has enough positives to attract a few bucks from me. Undercover Agent ran better on the main than on the inner and looks like the strongest of the horses that have started. Greenhouse Effect broke slowly last out and wound up very wide around the turn, but did pass some horses in the stretch. I like him to improve second time out. All in all an interesting betting race.

Race 3

• 1  Buckwellspent
• 7  Mister Monolo
• 5  Metal Magic
• Secondary (2)
• Buckwellspent will probably volley for favoritism, should be the front runner, and given the lack of serious speed, if he can ration his energy correctly, he’s got a chance. Definitely not as interesting at 2-1 though. Mister Monolo was racing with much better last year and seemed to show a little more interest when moved back to the main. Another interesting horse that will be a price. Metal Magic took a year off, came back with higher priced horses and ran a mediocre race. But he makes the logical price drop today and off his best he is very competitive here.

Race 4

• 2  Don’t Make It Easy
• 5  Samurai Warrior
• 6  Port More
• Don’t Make it Easy hasn’t been farther than five lengths from the winner in his last nine races, and looks to be well intended at the 7F distance. Samurai Warrior looked strong breaking his maiden last out and DJ is pretty good with repeaters. Port More has a win over the main, and didn’t look bad with higher priced horses on the inner. Have to give him consideration.

Race 5

• 4  Exclusive Zip
• 3  Captain Kitt
• 5  Psychic Energy
• Secondary (2, 8)
• Exclusive Zip came out running in his first start, moved up to MSW and ran into a couple of toughies in Long Haul Bay and Horrorscope. Both of those horses have come back to win and that flatters him. He’s got decent turf breeding. Captain Kitt has been struggling to get out of the maiden  ranks, and finally underwent the “ultimate equipment change.” He wasn’t much on the inner last out, but has shown better on the turf, including a third at AQU. Gets the weight break today. Psychic Energy steps up to the MSW for the crafty Linda Rice. He made a move forward last out and is fairly well bred for the turf.

Race 6

• 5  Can’tmakethisup
• 1  Augie’s Coming
• 3  Dan the Man
• Secondary (6, 8)
• Can’tmakethisup should enjoy the stretch out to the mile and should feel more comfortable at this price level. Still has plenty of space for improvement. Augie’s Coming makes a huge drop from $50K starter allowance down to a NW2L $16K claimer. Given how good he looked at the higher level, the drop might be negative, but he does have the top numbers and plenty of speed. Watch the board on this one. Dan the Man has been knocking at this level a while, but has gotten a piece in half his starts. May be useful in the verticals.

Race 7

• 3  Light in Paris
• 7  My Impression
• 1  Bishop’s Pond
• Secondary (2, 4)
• Light in Paris is graded stakes placed and goes for ace turf trainer Chad Brown. Consistently is competitive and should be very strong at this level. My Impression is another with graded stakes success and his last before the winter layoff was very impressive. Didn’t totally disgrace herself in the Hillsborough and should improve with the race under her belt. Bishop’s Pond is 20-1 on the ML and is making her first try with stakes company. Her figures are actually competitive.

Race 8

• 9  First Appeal
• 2  Tapceptional
• 8  Tough Old Bird
• This race is totally up in the air but I’m going with second time starter First Appeal. Her first start at Tampa wasn’t bad. She broke slowly, didn’t rush, and actually made up some ground in the stretch. I like that race and expect an improved effort today. Tapceptional goes first time for David Donk, and has a nice series of speed works. Should be able to get out and be a factor from the rail. Tough Old Bird drops from MSW down to claimers and has the top lifetime figure. Could be tough on the drop.

Race 9

• 4  War Bond
• 1  Buddy’s Tiz
• 2  Mascarello
• Secondary (6)
• War Bond is listed as odds-on on the ML off the price drop and his experience on the turf. He looks good, and has the best figures in the race by far. Buddy’s Tiz makes a big jump up in price, but he does have some good races on the turf. Worth a look at the odds. Mascarello had some nice turf races before moving to the AQU inner and returns to that surface today.

Race 1

• 1/1A  Buckwellspent/Playthatfunnymusic
• 5  Too Wild to Repent
• 6  Driving Me Crazy
• This is a competitive race. The Joseph Parker entry looks tough, with Buckwellspent perhaps the stronger of the two. Last out he showed speed early but flopped in the lane, but prior to that he’s shown an ability to stay well in the stretch. A win and a second on theAQU main. TooWild to Repent was claimed by RuRod last out and jumps up in price. RuRod is almost 40% first off the claim.

Race 2

• 2  Spotty Zealous
• 3  Honorable Jonas
• 4  Bear Clause
• Secondary (6)
• While Spotty Zealous is 2/5 on the morning line, he’s making a negative drop. He broke his maiden for $40K, ran respectably in a an OC$75K and drops all the way down to an NW2L $16K spot. You can’t bet against him, but I have to wonder, although the rest of the field is pretty dismal.

Race 3

• 5  Gypsum Johnny
• 2  Adulator
• 6  Governor Malibu
• Secondary (4)
• Gypsum Johnny has been racing well and looks like he may wind up the value. Has an affinity for the main. Adulator was a solid runner in 2016, but his only start of 2017 was not a good one. Still, if Jerkens has him wound up he is very competitive with this price level.

Race 4

• 8  General Bellamy
• 5  Big Al Parker
• 2  Storm the Shore
• Secondary (3, 4)
• Not likely a great betting race. General Bellamy is not really a win type but he is often close. Big Al Parker has the best last out figure and has only one race in his last nine out of the money.

Race 5

• 6  Clipthecouponannie
• 4  Carrumba
• 2  Highway Star
• Secondary (1, 3)

Nothing tricky here. Carrumba will get heavy action, but I’m going to  hope the track is playing like it did yesterday and look at the speed, Clipthecouponannie.

Race 6

• 9  Broken Engagement
• 5  Incorporate
• 10  My Boy Tate
• Secondary (1, 6, 7)
• The horse I’m most interested in is Incorporate. He bobbled at the break in his last start, rushed to be with the leaders and gradually gave it up, although not that badly. At 20-1 on the ML he could be a worth a second look.  Broken Engagement makes his second start off the same race as the Incorporate. He was pinched back at the start and  made a nice even close to finish second.

Race 7

• 6  Breeze Burner
• 4  Italian Syndicate
• 1  Valhalla
• Secondary (7)
• Breeze Burner was claimed by Contessa and immediate moved up where he was over his head. Comes back to his winning level today. Italian Syndicate also comes back to a level where he is more likely to succeed.

Race 8

• 7  Elrigh
• 2  Catapult
• 6  Macagone
• Secondary (1, 4)

Race 9

• 2  Driven by Speed
• 3 Miss Sizzle
• 4  Holiday Disguise
• Secondary (10, 11)
• The first timers don’t look great here so I’m going to look at some of the horses that have had a start. The Pletcher horse Driven by Speed makes his 2017 debut. Pletcher is very strong off the layoff and with second time starters. Miss Sizzle adds blinkers and comes off a race where she was a favorite. Holiday Disguise might have been in one of the first two slots, but she’s more of a closer and the track had been playing to speed. But if the track is fair, up her chances.

Race 1

• 2  Mineralogy
• 1  Myakka River
• 6  Lucullan
• Secondary (3)
• Minerology has two good races on the inner under his belt  and takes the blinkers off today. He looks like the best speed. Myakka River obviously didn’t get out of the gate well but he closed steadily and with a better break today should be a contender. Should be able to get a good stalking position since the horses outside of him should be winging.  The two first time starters, Lucullan and Britain both could be in the picture here.

Race 2

• 1/1A  Tricked Up/Puissant
• 10  Spin Cycle
• 3  Runaway Posse
• Secondary (5, 7)
• In the case the race goes off the turf, the MTOs Vicente and Brimstone are the horses to beat.

Race 3

• 3  Wild About Deb
• 7  Moon Over a Beauty
• 6  Speightstown Time
• Secondary (1, 4)
• Wild About Deb goes first time for David Jacobson, and was a fair stakes runner last year. Not overwhelming speed here, so if DJ has him in shape he looks best in the field. Moon Over a Beauty had trouble at the start last out but has shown good speed in his other starts. He looks like he has come back to the races more mature and could be the upsetter.

Race 4

• 6  Cerise’s Prince
• 8  Strong Side
• 4  Focus Group
• Secondary (12)
• This race has a lot of possibilities, so I’m looking to take a chance on a longshot. Cerise’s Prince has had two starts where he has had plenty of trouble and tries the turf for the first time. I think the figures he earned make him better than looks, he should love the distance, and has fair turf breeding. Strong Side has lately had a case of seconditis but has shown decent ability in his turf starts. Focus Group is one of the few horses with turf experience and has the great turf trainer Chad Brown in his corner. That’s enough for me to include him, although I’m not excited about the odds. If the race goes to the main and Outplay draws in, he will be the choice.

Race 5

• 6  Tasunke Witco
• 1  Paid Admission
• 5  Indycott
• Secondary (7)

Race 6

• 5  Theory
• 2  Even Thunder
• 4  Long Haul Bay
• Secondary (1, 3, 6)
• I don’t think there could be a surprise winner in this renewal of the Bay Shore. Theory may be a solid favorite and given the company he kept as a two-year old he probably deserves it. Pletcher is very good and getting horses ready off the layoff and he has a positive workout pattern. Even Thunder will be long odds but may be the one to pick up the pieces if the race breaks down in the stretch. Long Haul Bay comes off a nice maiden win and looks to make his step-up to the stakes ranks successful.

Race 7

• 6  Bourbon Empire
• 5  Ransom Note
• 2  Cause for Surprise
• Secondary (3, 10)
• Bourbon Empire is an easy horse to miss in this field, but should be the value. In his first race he won going away, but in his three races since he had nothing but trouble. Now maybe he’s one of those horses that creates his own troubles, but I’m going to bank that he can stay trouble free, and if he does, he’s got a big chance to win. Ransome Note looked good in three races on the inner, and adds blinkers today in an effort to focus his speed. That can make him dangerous today.

Race 8

• 7  Doyouknowsomething
• 2  Send It In
• 6  Admiral Blue
• Secondary (4)
• While Send It In looks very strong in this spot – he’s a 50% winner – I’m looking seriously at Doyouknowsomething who should be able to set his own pace. He’s won before at the distance. I won’t go nuts, but if you’re looking to bet something other than the favorite, he’s worth a look.

Race 9

• 8  Unified
• 6  Spartiatis
• 2  Tommy Macho
• Secondary (4)

Race 10

• 8  Irish War Cry
• 7  Cloud Computing
• 2  Mo Town
• Secondary (3, 5)
• This edition of the Wood Memorial features a lot of horses that prefer to run toward the front. Irish War Cry threw in an inexplicable clunker in the Fountain of Youth. I believe the fact that he is starting in the Wood means Graham Motion got him straightened out and ready to run the way he showed he could in his first three starts. Perhaps if he gets pushed too hard he’ll fold again, and in that case Cloud Computing looks like a horse that looks like he could be a budding star. He looked good in the Gotham in only his second lifetime start, and may turn out to be decent value.

Race 11

• 5  Miss Sky Warrior
• 1  Yorkiepoo Princess
• 2  Full House
• Secondary (4, 8, 9)
• Miss Sky Warrior is riding a four race win streak including two over the AQU main. She’s looked strong in graded events and looks very tough to beat today. Yorkiepoo Princess could be on the bottom of a decently paying exacta. She’s on a three race win streak of her own and should be in a good spot in the run to the wire.

Race 12

• 1/1a  Broken Engagement/Super Luke
• 8  Pirate’s Treasure
• 9  Carthon
• Secondary (2, 5)