Race 1

• 7  The Big Fundamental
• 1  Vincento
• 4  Battle Midway
• Secondary (3, 5)

Race 2 – The Easy Goer

• 5  Local Hero
• 7  West Coast
• 8  You’re to Blame
• Secondary (3, 9)
• Local Hero was probably not ready for the graded 3YO stakes earlier this year, but made a nice improvement in his last race and may have been more of a factor had he not been forced to check.  Asmussen should have him wound nicely for this start. West Coast has not run a bad race yet, and has proven he can ship. You’re to Blame will be running to pick up the pieces if the race breaks down.

Race 3 – The Brooklyn Invitational

• 5  Tu Brutus
• 6  Doyouknowsomething
• 4  Send it In
• Secondary (1, 7)
• This edition of the Brooklyn is not filled with obvious mile and a half horses. Tu Brutus looks to have the closest thing to decent distance breeding, and destroyed a field at an eighth of a mile less last out. His two American starts have shown enough talent to earn the win here. Doyouknowsomething has looked a little more competitive with the stretch-out in distance and at 15-1 is worth a second look. Send it In hasn’t finished worse than third since 2015.

Race 4 – The Acorn

• 5  Benner Island
• 7  Sweet Loretta
• 3  Abel Tasman
• Secondary (8, 1)
• Benner Island looks perfectly placed at the one turn mile and comes off a big run in the 8 Belles. Should go off at good value. Sweet Loretta ran well in her 2017 debut after ending last year on a sour note by stumbling in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Very well bred for the mile distance. Abel Tasman was an impressive winner of the Kentucky Oaks. The only question is whether her closing style will be effective here.

Race 5 – The Ogden Phipps

• 5  Songbird
• 6  Bar of Gold
• 1  Highway Star
• Secondary (4, 7)
• Not a lot of analysis here. If the Songbird of 2016 shows up the race is moot. I’ll use her with longer prices Bar of Gold and Highway Star.

Race 6 – The Jaipur

• 3  Pure Sensation
• 8  Canadian Flyer
• 2  Disco Partner
• Secondary (4, 1, 10)
• Pure Sensation ran well in the BC Turf Sprint before laying up for the winter. He came back and ran a decent race to Green Mask at the very short 5F distance in his 2017 debut, and he should be in better shape and at a better distance today. Canadian Flyer looks like another horse that may prefer the 6F distance of this race, and given a couple of so-so races in his last two should be a long price. Disco Partner came out with a strong win in the Elusive Quality and certainly fits with this group. I wouldn’t underestimate the secondary horses, Loose on the Town, Green Mask, and Stormy Liberal.

Race 7 – The Woody Stephens

• 7  Wild Shot
• 11  Petrov
• 10  Long Haul Bay
• 8  American Anthem
• Secondary (2, 3, 4)
• In this very competitive race I went with Wild Shot who powered to a convincing win in the Pat Day. He should be perfect at the 7F distance, he’s had a good foundation this year, and on the improve. Petrov has good sprint breeding and has good pace figures. Long Haul Bay was an impressive winner of the Bay Shore and has a very nice workout pattern for his return. American Anthem ships in for Baffert and looks like a serious contender at the sprint distance.

Race 8 – The Just A Game

• 2  Roca Rojo
• 1  Dickinson
• 4  Harmonize
• Secondary (5, 6, 7)
• In another competitive affair, while I looked for something that I could put ahead of the favorite, but in the end Roco Roja is the pick. She’s 6 of 8 in the win column, 3 of 3 over the BEL turf, and 3 of 5 at the distance. Her pace figures don’t have her far ahead of some others, but her consistency puts her on top. Dickinson should be a close second choice having won 5  of her last 6, including a strong win in the Jenny Wiley last out. Harmonize didn’t show much last out at CD, but before that she was consistently competitive. Rider switch to Johnny V might help.

Race 9 – The Metropolitan

• 5  Sharp Azteca
• 12  Awesome Slew
• 2  Rally Cry
• Secondary (9, 11)
• In this renewal of the Met Mile Sharp Azteca gets the nod. He’s one of the top milers and showed his credentials with a third in the Godolphin Mile. Prior to that he was competitive in two graded stakes in a row, winning the Hardacre Mile GP Handicap, and running second in the G1 Malibu. Awesome Slew may prefer a little bit more distance than this mile, but he closed well at 7F to finish second at CD in his last out. Has the talent. Rally Cry steps up for Pletcher after running creditably in a couple of allowance races. May be a little ambitious, but he looks to be in top shape.

Race 10 – The Manhattan

• 4  Time Test
• 2  Wake Forest
• 9  Sadler’s Joy
• Secondary (1, 3, 6, 7)
• The Manhattan is always one of my favorite races, usually bringing together a group of top turf horses. Time Test shipped over from GB and missed winning the Fort Marcy by the slimmest of margins. He’s a group winner in Europe and always seems to run the same high number. Talented and consistent. Wake Forest is the second of the three Chad Brown runners. He apparently didn’t care for the yielding track but prior to that he showed plenty of talent in Graded events. Sadler’s Joy was another one that may have given slightly less than his best on a yielding track in the Man o’ War. He looks to be in good form heading into this race and at 6-1 is worth a look.

Race 11 – The Belmont Stakes

• 7  Irish War Cry
• 3  Gormley
• 4  J Boys Echo
• 6  Lookin at Lee
• 10  Multiplier
• 2  Tapwrit
• If you have any money left by this race, it could be a good betting event. First, no horse really sticks out in this field. Second, no horse is particularly well bred for the mile and a half. I’ll admit I was a fan of Irish War Cry in the Derby, and he didn’t get a winning trip in that race, but given the field, he should compete better. Irish War Cry is by Curlin, who should give him some bottom, although his dam side seems to say sprint. I like his running style for this event – generally horses that can stay near the pace have an advantage. He’s got two superior races in the Wood and the Holy Bull, both graded events. I wouldn’t bet the house on him, especially at the likely odds, but I am looking for vindication.  Gormley is listed at 8-1, and if the field was a little better he might easily be double digits. I have a feeling he won’t be that low at post time, although he seems to be a bit of a wiseguy horse. He’s a Grade 1 winner, and he really was one of the horses who got the worst of it in the Derby. His distance breeding isn’t particularly strong but he does have the right running style for the race. Intriguing. J Boys Echo is 15-1 on the ML and could be the best value in the race. His distance breeding is not bad – A.P. Indy is his grandsire – and you can pretty much toss his Derby effort. His Gotham win gives him the field best figure, and he should be cruising just behind the leading pack with an opportunity to be in a good position for the stretch run. I’ll seriously consider win money if he stays at those odds. Make no mistake – Lookin at Lee has some talent, but his running style is just not well suited to the Belmont. He got a very fortunate trip in the Derby and ran ok in the Preakness, but given the overall quality of the field, it’s hard to discount him too much.  Multiplier is another interesting horse at long odds. He won the Illinois Derby, but didn’t show particularly well in the Preakness. I’m a bit ambiguous about the equipment change – blinkers go on – but I can see him in a backhole. Tapwrit gets thrown into the mix as a potential backholer, but I’d be surprised if he could get to the line first. If he stays at his 6-1 ML odds I might not even use him in the backholes.

Race 12

• 1/1A  Ray’s the Bar/Shalako
• 7  Conquest Sandman
• 11  Hello Don Julio
• 10  Arcature
• Secondary (3)

Race 13

• 10  Realm
• 5  River Echo
• 1/1A  Ostrolenka/Top Fortitude
• Secondary (3, 6, 7, 9)

Race 1

• 3  Spun Copper
• 4  Sweetrayofsunshine
• 6  Lady Luciano
• Secondary (1)

Race 2

• 2  Madame Ambassador
• 4   Pana Elianne
• 7  Prima Attrice
• Secondary (1)

Race 3

• 4  Tombelaine
• 1  Siding Spring
• 7  Dowse’s Beach
• Secondary (2, 3)

Race 4

• 3  Lion in Wait
• 1  Cleo
• 6  Fiscal Discipline
• Secondary (2, 8)

Race 5

• 6  Spotty Zealous
• 5  American Pioneer
• 10  Lifelong Dreamer
• Secondary (1, 7)

Race  6

• 1  Posse Needed
• 5  Dancing All Night
• 6  Silencer
• Secondary (3)

Race 7

• 6  Sammy Wonder Stone
• 5  Cinderela El Crome
• 3  Noble and True
• Secondary (1, 2, 4)

Race 8

• 9  Alabama Bound
• 7  Pinchbeck
• 12  Amazing Anne
• Secondary (8, 5, 3)

Race 9

• 11  Rossie Val
• 9  Source Control
• 5  Pimm’s Cup
• 3  Zaguri

Race 1

• 5  Correjon
• 7  Read My Lips
• 3  My Uncle Al
• Secondary (6)

Race 2

• 7  Violet Blue
• 6  Double Cast
• 8  Blenheim Palace
• Secondary (1, 2)

Race 3

• 6  Monster Mash
• 4  Brewing
• 3  All About Ashley
• Secondary (7)

Race 4

• 4  Bourbon Empire
• 2  Fulmer
• 1  Leaveematthegate
• Secondary (3, 9)

Race 5

• 6  River Date
• 5  Taoiseach
• 7  John’s Island
• Secondary (3, 4)

Race 6

• 5  Volatility Index
• 4  Lido
• 8  Zuzanna
• Secondary (2, 3)

Race 7

• 2  Cuckoo’s Saloon
• 4  Fact Check
• 5  Lucky Town
• Secondary (9, 8)

Race 8

• 10  Audrique
• 6  Tainted Angel
• 4  Gobi
• Secondary (5, 8, 9)

Race 9

• 8  Secretary At War
• 7  Ticonderoga
• 9  Good Samaritan
• Secondary (2, 4, 6)

Race 10

• 8  Starstruck Kitten
• 11  Harlan’s Hunch
• 10  Prognostication
• Secondary (6, 13)

Race 1

• 7  Colonel Andy
• 12  Wintry
• 3  Brooklyn Speights
• Secondary (1, 5)

Race 2

• 2  Fire Key
• 8  Lady Joan
• 6  Puparee
• Secondary (1, 3, 7, 9)

Race 3

• 7  Giant Expectations
• 8  Pirate’s Treasure
• 4  Sicilia Mike 
• Secondary (1)

Race 4

• 5  Fourstar Crook
• 7  Ancient Secret
• 1  Louisville First
• Secondary (2)

Race 5

• 5  McSweetie
• 6  Madame Ambassador
• 9  Questaq
• Secondary (3, 7)

Race 6

• 11  Kathryn the Wise
• 3  Jules N Rome
• 5  Picco Uno
• Secondary (2, 1, 8)

Race 7

• 6  Syndergaard
• 3  Blue Belt
• 4  Terry O Geri
• Secondary (1, 8)

Race 8

• 5  Diversify
• 8  Weekend Hideaway
• 10  Empire Dreams
• Secondary (6, 3, 1, 9)

Race 9

• 10  Kharafa
• 5  King Kreesa
• 8  Offering Plan
• Secondary (1, 2)

Race 10

• 3  Bluegrass Flag
• 1  Swing and Sway
• 9  Noble Freud
• Secondary (7, 8, 4)

Race 1

• 3  Set the Trappe
• 2  Kohlhasse
• 1  Major League
• Secondary (6)

Race 2

• 3  She’s All Love
• 10  I C My Way
• 2  Youth Gone Wild
• Secondary (1, 7)

Race 3

• 9  Bustin It
• 6  Sol the Freud
• 4  All About Ashley
• Secondary ( 7, 1, 2, 3)

Race 4

• 9  Bigboldbok
• 5  Consumerconfidence
• 4  Rate for Me
• Secondary (1, 3, 8)

Race 5

• 5  Wrong Ben
• 6  Duquesne Whistle
• 8  Voodoo Song
• Secondary (1, 4)

Race 6

• 5  Commend
• 2  El Talento
• 6  Whiskey Seven
• Secondary (7, 3, 4, 8)

Race 7

• 6  Closing Bell
• 3  Mr Singh
• 4  Indebted
• Secondary (10, 1)

Race 8

• 2  Splashtastic
• 4  Touchofstarquality
• 7  Destin
• Secondary (6, 1)

Race 9

• 6  Astounding
• 5  Snowfly
• 7  Mascarello
• Secondary (8)

Race 1

• 2  Canarsie Kid
• 4  The Crocheron Kid
• 3  Lone Trader
• Secondary (6, 7)

Race 2

• 1  Britain
• 6  High Frequency
• 7  Refinance
• Secondary (3, 8)

Race 3

• 1  Street Heat
• 7  Erik the Red
• 3  Motown Sound
• Secondary (2, 6, 8)

Race 4

• 1  Stormin Monarcho
• 4  Adulator
• 3  Hard Study
• Secondary (2, 5)

Race 5

• 2  Bookman
• 6  Shiraz
• 5  Manifest Destiny
• Secondary (7)

Race 6

• 9  My Ekati Cat
• 1  Quasney’s Angel
• 6  Majestic Lassie
• Secondary (3, 7)

Race 7

• 7  Battle Joined
• 4  Game Factor
• 9  Vigor
• Secondary (5, 8, 2)

Race 8

• 8  Big Handsome
• 4  Kitten’s Cat
• 1  Derek’s Smile
• Secondary (2, 6)

Race 9

• 3  Eloquent Riddle
• 7  Bow Town Cat
• 5  Sheplaysthefield
• Secondary (1, 2, 8, 9)

Race 10

• 8  Mr. Massena
• 2  Elenzee
• 10  Ides of Arch
• Secondary (7, 9, 11)

Race 1

• 2  Italian Syndicate
• 5  Valhalla
• 1  Breeze Burner

Race 2

• 6  Game Girl
• 2  Truth in the Lies
• 3  Speak Up Sailor
• Secondary (1, 5)

Race 3

• 6  Lucky Lotto
• 1  Souper Knight
• 5  Draxhall Woods

Race 4

• 2  Easy Way Out
• 9  Majestic Mac
• 8  Rubicon
• Secondary (1, 6)

Race 5

• 3  Believe Indeed
• 2  Frosty Lady
• 4  Desert Duchess
• Secondary (6)

Race 6

• 7  Focus Group
• 8  White Flag
• 10  Cerise’s Prince
• Secondary (3, 4, 6, 11)

Race 7

• 2  Startwithsilver
• 6  Epping Forest
• 1  Barrier to Entry
• Secondary (8)

Race 8

• 2  Bealstreet Dancer
• 7  Three Perfections
• 11  Cloontia
• Secondary (3, 5, 6, 8)

Race 9

• 5  Liam’s World
• 9  Jeanne’s Speight
• 3  Citizen by Day
• Secondary (11)

Let’s start with the Preakness.

The question to ask is pretty simple. Is Always Dreaming beatable? There is certainly always a chance, but on paper he looks very strong. So let’s go through the field and figure out a betting strategy.

1  Multiplier. He started racing as a three year old and has gotten better with each start. He ran third in the mud in his initial start, and two races later broke his maiden at the Fair Grounds. Off that victory he won the G3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, and now steps up to Grade 1 company. The short story is that he appears too inexperienced and too slow to compete with this group. Brendan Walsh got his start as a trainer apprenticing for Eddie Kenneally and has been on his own for about five years. He’s done well this year and in time Multiplier might be able to compete with these, but today he’s a toss for me.

2  Cloud Computing. Another late starter trained by Chad Brown. He took the Gotham/Wood route to the Triple Crown, and while he ran a decent second in the Gotham and a fair third in the Wood, neither of the winners in those races came back to run particularly well in the Derby. The fact that Chad Brown trains him is a positive, but he’s going to have to improve to catch a piece here.

3  Hence. He came to the Derby with a bit of hype off an impressive Sunland Derby win. Irap, one of the also rans in that race, came back to win the Bluegrass, and Conquest Mo Money ran a nice second in the Arkansas Derby after finishing second in the Sunland Derby, both horses flattering Hence. Like many of the horses in the Derby, he had trouble, but it would be hard to give him a real chance of winning the race coming off the Derby and one decent run at Sunland. Maybe he could sneak into a back hole, but he doesn’t appeal to me beyond that.

4  Always Dreaming. A look at the past performances reveals an impressive runner that appears to have come into his own. The Florida Derby win was impressive, the Derby win more so. Let’s look at the positives. He’s the speed in a race without much speed on a track that is normally kind to speed. The switch from Dominic Schettino to Todd Pletcher has made an enormous impact on the horse. And as I said, he seems to be getting better with each race. The negatives on the KY Derby win are that he was on a rail that was the consensus place to be, the fractions of the race were average, and the final quarter was hardly spectacular. One horse was rapidly making up ground, and that was Lookin at Lee coming up the preferred rail. Todd Pletcher has a horrible record with horses coming back in 14 days or less, but then again he was something like 1 for 44 entering the Derby, so perhaps that statistic isn’t as meaningful. Do the negatives make the horse vulnerable? Eh, maybe a little, but it’s not like you can make a case for too many of the other horses coming out of the Derby, with one exception I’ll get to in a bit. It would be gambling to leave AD out of the top slot, but this may be a race to do that. On the other hand, putting him on top can’t be criticized.

5  Classic Empire. Clearly he had about as bad a trip as any horse in the Derby, from being shuffled around early to being blocked later in the race. The bad news is that he seems to be a horse that has more than his share of trouble in races. Still, with only ten runners, the Preakness might be a race where he can run his “A” race, assuming he makes a fair break.  This horse was the two year old of the year, ran somewhat dull in his 3YO debut, and then came fully to hand in the Arkansas Derby, a race that produced second place finisher Lookin at Lee. The horse has the ability to track and that could put Always Dreaming in a  spot where he can’t casually lope along by himself on the lead.  That can make it a race in the stretch to see which horse is better. Do I think he’s a better horse than Always Dreaming? I think the possibility is there, and I think I’m will to pay to find out.

6  Gunnevera. He’s another one of the horses that come into the Derby with a lot of support and given the switch from Castellano to Mike Smith he may garner support here. He was a winner in the Fountain of Youth, but was dull in the Florida Derby and the KY Derby. Off his best Florida races he’s not out of the question, but he doesn’t give me great inspiration.

7  Terms of Art. As much respect as I have for Doug O’Neill, this horse looks like a non-contender to me. I’d stick him in the fourth slot at best.

8  Senior Investment. The winner of the Lexington really faces by far his toughest challenge. For me he’s another non-contender.

9  Lookin at Lee. The second place runner in the Derby had a good trip, saving ground on an advantageous rail early and closing on it late. This time he’s going to have to get over to the rail early, so he’ll likely save ground again, and then find the right path to unleash his kick in the stretch. Can he spring the upset today? I wouldn’t make that a very high probability. He’s 10-1 on the ML, and I’d say that’s about right. He has to be used in the money, but I’d struggle to put him in the top slot.

10  Conquest Mo Money. He’s the so-called new shooter in the race. He didn’t go in the Derby but he showed he was not just a Sunland horse when he ran second to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. He’s another one with enough speed to press Always Dreaming and that may give him an advantage. Again, I’m having a hard time seeing him get by my top two choices.

The strategy:  It’s hard to imagine there are horses better than Always Dreaming at the moment. Still, that’s why they don’t run the race on paper. If you want to bet the individual race, I’d think about trifectas and superfectas. Even then I’m hard pressed to figure out how to make much money. I would use Classic Empire on top. He’s the one horse that has run well in top graded stakes and has a big excuse coming out of the Derby.

• 5/4/2,3,6,9,10/2,3,6,9,10
• 5/4/3,9,10/2,3,6,9,10
• 5/3,9,10/4/2,3,6,9,10

Belmont

Race 1

• 5  The Brown Bomber
• 2  Pimm’s Cup
• 1  Coral Ridge

Race 2

• 4  Augie’s Coming
• 7  Blafe’s Corner
• 3  Fielding Gold
• Secondary (5)

Race 3

• 6  Highland Sky
• 1  Arties Silver Mine
• 2  Fire Away

Race 4

• 3  Luna Rising
• 1  Luz Mimi
• 2  Wildcat Belle
• Secondary (6)

Race 5

• 4  Queen of Spades
• 7  Pop Singer
• 6  Five Each Way
• Secondary (1, 5)

Race 6

• 5  Battery
• 2  Our Karma
• 3  Swift One
• Secondary (4, 7)

Race 7

• 8  Lull
• 6  Con Te PArtiro
• 9  Happy Mesa
• Secondary (2, 5, 4)

Race 8

• 10  Tiz a Chance
• 1  Aktabantay
• 4  Winter Springs
• Secondary (8, 9)

Race 9

• 8  Dream a Little
• 10  Satin Sheets
• 4  Out of Trouble
• Secondary (9, 2, 7)

Race 10

• 1  Youth Gone Wild
• 10  Prima Attrice
• 4  Empty House
• Secondary (5, 6, 8)

Race 1

• 6  Hard Hitter
• 2  Z Royal
• 3  Spotty Zealous 

Race 2

• 5  Via Frattina
• 6  Skyline Drive
• 1  Final Flurry

Race 3

• 5  Zaguri
• 6  Undercover Agent
• 3  Rossie Val
• Secondary (2, 7)

Race 4

• 6  Union Riches
• 1  Francesco Flier
• 7  Mr Grey

Dirt

• 4  Facade
• 2  Mollica
• 5  Tin Drum

Race 5

• 5  Bareeqa
• 10  Pinchback
• 1  Tiz a Kitten
• Secondary (3, 7)

Race 6

• 3  Krista’s Persona
• 5  Lakeside Sunset
• 6  Champagne Ruby
• Secondary (2, 4)

Race 7

• 8  Insta Erma
• 2  Peru
• 5  Catcha Rising Star
• Secondary (6)

Dirt

• 7  Malibu PRincess
• 3  Pawley’s Express
• 5  Catcha Rising Star
• Secondary (4)

Race 8

• 4  Nouvelle Vague
• 2  Frosty Lady
• 7  Holidays Saratoga
• Secondary (3)

Dirt

• 15  Northern Scream
• 13  Jemmabelle
• 11  Loyal Heart

I’m hearing crappy weather this weekend. That might change everything, but I gave it my best shot.

Race 1

• 4  Cookie Crisp
• 3  Robbins
• 2  Driven West

Race 2 (May wash off the turf)

• 9  Djulpan
• 5  Tu Exagerea
• 10  Heated Verdict
• Secondary (1)

Race 3

• 3  Switzerland
• 5  Blessed Halo
• 1  Javelin

Race 4

• 2  Timeline
• 4  Impressive Edge
• 1  Master Plan
• Secondary (3)

Race 5 (May wash off the turf)

• 12  Helmet Head
• 10  Sutter’s Mill
• 2  Thirtysevenliveson
• Secondary (1, 7)

Dirt

• 15  Skeet Shot
• 1  Love and Care
• 11  Max James
• 3  Enasoit

Race 6  

• 6  Dacita
• 8  Miss Temple City
• 1  Rainha Da Bateria
• Secondary (3, 4)

Race 7

• 2  Two Down One to Go
• 5  Bene
• 8  Conquest Prankster
• Secondary (7, 10)

Race 8

• 3  Wake Forest
• 2  Charming Kitten
• 6  Patterson Cross
• 1  Sadler’s Joy

Race 9

• 9  Curious Cal
• 2  True Bet
• 8  Bluegrass Prevails
• Secondary (5, 6)

Race 10

• 5  Bar of Gold
• 3  Highway Star
• 1  High Ridge Road
• Secondary (4)

Race 11 (May wash off the turf)

• 4  Leaveematthegate
• 1  D’Eloquent
• 2  Freedom Seven

Dirt

• 6  Altesino
• 10  Bourbon Empire
• 14  H Man
• Secondary (5)