HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone. Hope you all have a healthy and prosperous 2015.

Tough card to start the year. Not a lot I am really excited about, but we’ll see how some of the longshot selections pan out.

Race 1

• 5 Gabby’s Brown – Drops from $50K and puts the shades on for RuRod. Has already had a race on the inner where she showed the way for half a mile. The cut back in distance and switch to Irad helps her cause.
• 1 Your Turn – ran decently in the mud on the inner when finishing third behind Coral Beach. Mott is well known for his horses needing a race or two, and she definitely improved last out. One more jump puts her in the mix.
• 2 Coral Beach – Pletcher was looking to get rid of her last out but found no takers so he’s making another try. She ran well while racing wide and just couldn’t get by Rosa Carina. Looks like any of the three could be the winner.

Race 2

• 7 Breach of Duty – Broke her maiden at a mile and came back at Parx in a NW1X where she never was a threat. Back in the claiming ranks and will be competitive if she runs back to her maiden figure. Having Chad Brown and Irad is a plus considering the combo is 26% and a positive ROI overall.
• 5 Noon Sermon – dominated a maiden $40K field in the mud but that was two months ago. Has a good set of works in December for the return.
• 3 Slam Chowder – another that ran away from a maiden $40K field but at 5 1/2 furlongs on the inner. Eddie Kenneally has been live this meet.

Race 3       The Affectionately

This looks like a competiive race. The 1 entry doesn’t look like either has a decent probability of winning. While America didn’t make my top three, she did just win one the inner and on a muddy main track at AQU. She’s in good condition and does have Bill Mott on her side so she wouldn’t be a surprise. Moment in Dixie is the other logical contender. She is listed at 7/2 on the ML and although she doesn’t have a win this year, she has been running in graded events. If any of the selections falters she could be in the mix.

• 7 Belle Gallantey – made a try in the BC Distaff and only beat two, but before that won the Beldame and the Delaware ‘Cap. Looks to be the class of the field and is far and away the biggest earner. Decent record on the inner and half her lifetime wins came in 2014. Is one of the speedier horses in the race, and should be in a good spot turning for home.
• 3 Shayjolie – finished second in the Comely. Should prefer the cutback in distance. Except for a race on the turf, she’s run consistent figures all year. Another that should be up near the front and running in the stretch.
• 2/2b Penwith/Divided Attention – duo obtained favoritism in the Comely but finished a disappointing 4th/6th. Penwith should be up toward the front while Divided Attention should be pressing. Both of them have figures in their PP’s that would win this race and are certainly talented enough to win it.

Race 4

With the scratch of Bad to the Roan I’ll move Risk the Moon up to the second choice. Leatherhead Lurie managed a second last out and Little T. Louie was slightly behind after pushing the pace. Neither one has been particularly inspiring, but in this field they are not without chances.

• 3 Awesome Lute – dropped from a MSW to this level last out and ran a good second. That race gives him the best last race figure. A couple of December workouts should have him ready to roll.
• 9 Bad to the Road – finished behind the 1 in his last race but was right on the leader the whole way. The negative is that he is on the far outside and will have to work hard to get to the front. Possibly working on getting his professional maiden degree.
• 5 Risk the Moon – only his third start, but showed a bit more interest than in his first start. This is not a high grade field, and at 30-1 might be worth a flyer.

Race 5

• 3 Ginny’s Grey – claimed by Danny Gargan at SAR in August. He thought about trying her on the turf but was washed off once at BEL and once at AQU. She won the BEL race, and ran a decent third to Agawa, a horse entered in today’s Affectionately, at AQU. She has a nice pressing style and a competitive figure. One decent maintenance work 10 days ago.
• 7 Wavell Avenue – has a good turn of speed and the combination of Chad Brown and Irad on his side. Won a sprint at AQU and moves to the route. He’s already wired a field at a mile and a 16th so today’s distance should be no problem. Heavy favorite on the ML. Has a lot of upside.
• 5 Bounty Pink – five wins in ten starts including the last four in a row. Steps up a bit in price, but that is a good sign. Has a win and a third on the inner and has been improving each time. Gotta like horses that try hard each time.

Race 6

• 7 First Sensation – Couldn’t handle a $16K starter allowance last out but the time before that beat a $16K NW3 claiming group. Pablo Fragoso is back to ride at AQU. Has competitive figures.
• 9 Mama Zee – RuRod runner has a good turn of speed but has faltered as the favorite in her last two at this level and distance. Still, her figures are competitive and she has a lot of back class. Irad takes the mount back and the Rodriguez/Ortiz combo hits at 24%
• 1 Concealed – Luis Miranda is not a first rate trainer, but half of his wins come from this horse. Lots of natural speed but will have to contend with Blue Ballerina to her outside. Still, has wired against much better than these and has 4 of 6 in the money on the inner.

Race 7

With the scratch of The Spotted Wonder that moves Sean and Matt into the top three. He wired a field as recently as September and hasn’t run badly in his subsequent two $50K starter allowances.

•  6 Peaceful Talk – had been racing on the turf most of the year but moved to the AQU main and and ran well into the deep stretch . Given that was his first start on the main six months, improvement is possible. Has experience on the innerand has gotten beter since then.
• 2 The Spotted Wonder – ran well on two sloppy tracks then just missed on a fast track last out. Has the best last race figure and a couple of December maintenance works. Franco stays for the ride and while Leo O’Brien isn’t the trainer he once was, he is still a good horseman.
• 3 Von Frassen – Jacobson looks to repeat as New York’s leading trainer in 2015 and is hoping it starts here. Ran third on the inner last out. Should improve this time out.

Race 8

With the scratches of the 3, 5, and 10 the race takes on a different flavor. Spinit to Winit is only 2 for 17 but has 7 seconds so she moves into contention

• 4 La Bella Valeria – hasn’t finished worse than second this year including a win at 5 1/2 on the inner last time. Figures top the field and should be one of the horses winging on the lead.
• 7 Shea Darby – is the interesting horse. Won two races on the inner at AQU last year (2014) and came out in the mud a month ago, pressing the pace for a half and fading to fourth in the stretch. Given the scratches she won’t go off at 12-1, but she should be decent odds.
• 3 Elmra – Is well suited for the 6 furlong distance with a win and a place lifetime. Faltered last out in the mud but has shown stretch courage in the past on a fast track, including just missing on the inner in her debut race. Last race figure very competitive.

Race 9

• 7 Jules N Rome – best dirt figure off her debut race, and looked good running second on a sloppy track last out. Two nice December workouts in prep for this.
• 5 Broken Border – Broke poorly last race but made a steady close to finish second. Switches from the turf to dirt today, given the breeding she should adapt well.
• 2 Stolen Victory – has been close in her last three. Lost two back to Endonahighnote, but improved in her race after that one so she’ll get the final slot today.

Last analysis for the year. It’s been a good year and I’m hoping 2015 will be even better. I had a lot of time given this was a dark day at the track, and it was below zero in Denver, so you’re getting a lot of bonus analysis today.

Race 1

This doesn’t look like a great betting race. If Bert Stone runs and wins, the payoff will not be very attractive. The two first time starters are not awe inspiring, but I don’t think you can eliminate Norman’s Hero the Levine horse. You’ve got four horses dropping in price. I’m sticking with my selections, but I’ll think before I spend a lot of money on this race.

• 4 Bert Stone – in this $30K MCL Bert Stone is the stick out of the horses that have started. He is far speedier and either of his first two races is better than anything else in this field. It’s a little concerning that he couldn’t put away his last field, but this one is weaker.
• 6 Norman’s Hero – in this race you can look a long time at the horses that have started and not come up with a logical exacta horse behind the 4. This first time starter is trained by Bruce Levine who wins at 19% with firsters. I like the workout pattern where the horse has some fast works early in the pattern, and some strength building works after. He’s bred decently for the distance and the dirt. Dylan Davis is not inspiring but not alot to beat in this field. And no, he wasn’t gelded four days ago. The connections reported it when he was entered.
• 7 It’s Perfect Too – has a decent race on 10/17 at BEL, and perhaps  you can excuse him for being in over his head the last two.

Race 2

This was another uninspiring race. I sometimes think trip information can be overvalued. Rhody Rendezvous has had 6 starts, and has had trouble at the start in 5 of them. This is either a horse with incredible bad luck or a bad actor, and in either case it diminishes whatever figures he’s earned. It is always a tough call when you have a horse with a competitive figure and excuses every race, but regardless of the trouble, this horse has never made up a length in the stretch. And if he has a troubled start again he’s dead from the one post. Still, given the field, he’s not totally outless. You’ve also got the winter mix of price droppers – all but one are dropping with three dropping out of MSW – equipment changes, and excuses. I thought long and hard about Little Nell. She drops slightly in price and had a double excuse last time – steadied start and a sloppy track. But she was 32-1 (which means she was not well thought of), she’s not really bred for a short sprint, she didn’t run a step in the race, and Contessa is only average with second time starters. She could improve enough to win and I won’t say I’m shocked if she does, but you have to make some leaps to put her on top of the 2. The point – this is another race where unless you believe you have some insight and you get good odds it may be worth sitting on your hands.

• 2 Dulce de Leche – showed a lot of speed at FL but came to AQU and ran a clunker on the turf. Dropping way down in price today and has a couple of works since his last. Should be the pacesetter.
• 8 Gethot Stayhot – David Duggan trainee wound up running wide in her muddy debut but showed some interest, closing a few lengths in the stretch. Next out she ran into an inspired nine length winner. She drops in price and barring another inspired performance from one of the other runners, looks very competitive in here.
• 1 Rhody Rendezvous – making her 7th start for James Ferraro. Troubled start and ran wide last out, so the poor finish can be excused. Has shown enough talent to be a factor.

Race 3

The races don’t get any easier as the card gets deeper. I’ll admit in cheaper maiden races – and state breds are cheaper – I tend to look for horses with experience that haven’t shown themselves to be chronic losers. Fenwick Hall fits the bill, but there are some obvious negatives – no heart in the stretch seems to have been an issue in her first three starts. But she looks like good speed even if the first timers run to the front. I didn’t use Beating Heart Baby, but she is another excuse horse. Squeezed at the start and very wide in the stretch. She actually did make up lengths and if the first timers are duds and Fenwick Hall is really heartless, she’s got a good chance at a medium price. Again, this may not be a great betting race unless you have a strong opinion and get some good odds.

• 4 Fenwick Hall – looks best of the horses that have started. Although this is her fourth start, Bruce Brown keeps her in the MSW ranks and that is a positive. Workout two weeks ago was a good one, workout 4 days ago more of a leisurely gallop.
• 7 Paradise Peak – Eddie Kenneally has been doing well with limited starters at AQU. Congrats is decent with debut runners and is decent with sprinters. Nice workout pattern, especially the last blowout. Having Jose Ortiz aboard should help.
• 2 Ginned Up – first time starter for Gary Contessa who is only 7%. Still, I like Indian Charlie debut runners, especially at the sprint distances. Eye catching workout four days ago.

Race 4

This one was a bit maddening. You can’t ignore the Pletcher horse and you’ll be lucky to get 2-1 on him. Same with the McLaughlin horse. They are basically saying these horses have no place in their barns. At least I believe in this race I’ve got the right runners, but the prices might be thin. Update: Pletcher scratched the 1 so I’ll just stay with the 4 and 5

• 1 Lawmaker – Frankly, this looks like Pletcher doing some late winter cleaning. He drops the horse way down today, and I’m reading it as looking to pick up a purse on a horse he doesn’t see as being part of his 2015 plans. He’s got the figures to beat this field. Would be no surprise to see him win and get claimed by Jacobson.
• 4 Empower – looks to be the best front runner and can be excused for not beating a stakes field on the synthetic. Actually broke his maiden on the AQU inner last January. McLaughlin is 28% with the long layoff sorts, and although the drop to $25K is drastic, it may be the same strategy Pletcher is using – snag a purse, lose the horse, and move on. Clearly they think less of him than they did last year since he was gelded between March and this race. Perhaps a bit ambiguous, but has enough positives to be interesting.
• 5 Speeding Comet – Another Kenneally runner. This one was claimed last out at CD from the well-regarded Mark Casse. His maiden win was impressive, battling the whole way down the stretch. Improvement is certainly possible. Another with some ambiguity but plenty of positives.

Race 5      The Bay Ridge      1a-5-8

This is a really nice field. 12 horses and you could make a credible case for half of them. The two not in my top three that may be interesting are Macha and Storied Lady. Macha is a horse that looked talented but never really blossomed. If she wins I wouldn’t be shocked, but I’m not betting that way. Same with Storied Lady. I went back and forth between her and Miss Da Point, but in the end I went with the 8. I expect this will be a good race.

• 2 Jcs American Dream – won his last on a muddy track. Of course there were only four starters in that allowance affair. Her figures are not quite as good as a few others in here.
• 1 Dreaming of Cara – the weaker half of the Mitchell Friedman entry. Hasn’t won this year and it doesn’t look like today is the day.
• 3 Little Rocket – Puts the blinkers on today. Has been running well at FL, but definitely would have to move forward today to be a factor. Looks more like a sprinter so might be part of the early pace.
• 1a Carameaway – good figures and has been running well most of 2014. Good at the distance and likes to do her running on the front end. Gets the nod in a competitive affair.
• 4 Macha – hard to get an accurate read on the horse. Was in the G1 Santa Margarita in March but was obviously overmatched. Shipped to BEL and did nothing in a mile state-bred race. Then went back to Fresno and finished third in a stakes sprint. Now trained by RuRod who has given her a steady series of December works. Interesting horse, but I’m going to take a stand against her today.
• 5 Flipcup – a little bit of seconditis this year, but until last race was 7 for 7 in the money in 2014. Her out of the money finish was the G3 Comely and it looks like she was just overmatched. She looks like she is at her best distance and definitely has win potential. Solid second choice.
• 6 Miss Narcissist – 0 for 6 with one second this year. Looks up against it in this field.
• 7 Get Gorgeous – Pulled up last race, but in any case doesn’t look fast enough.
• 8 Miss Da Point – Nice second in an allowance race on the inner last out in an excellent time. Very nice work five days ago. Perhaps a little beneath some in this field, but has the talent and has the running style to win here.
• 9 Hot Rendezvous – She has 3 wins in 4 starts at the AQU inner, and her loss was a state-bred stake. She did finish second in the Broadway but has been on the shelf since May. Contessa is 17% with the long layoff, and he’s been giving her longer workouts, likely to give her some condition. Probably not the winner, but it is not beyond her capability to finish in the money.
• 10 Storied Lady – won an OC $40K last out but before that was struggling against horses similar to this field. Is 3 of 5 on the inner and looks like another that may not have high win potential but has chances to finish on the board.
• 11 Royal Suspicion – 6 for 46 mare looks over her head against this field.

Race 6

Cheap race but another full field. There are some question marks – Benny’s Bullet could certainly win the race, but I’m fairly solid with my picks.

• 2 Jubilant Vision – Kenneally is certainly prominent today. This horse broke her maiden as a two year old for Steve Asmussen at Churchill, and raced pretty well in her allowance start this June. Has a somewhat spotty workout pattern and that is of concern. Two in July, one in September, one in November and two in December. Has good figures and if she is in shape she will be tough.
• 9 Kleptocrat – broke her maiden  at BEL but has been off two and a half months. Has a good workout pattern for her return. Competitive last race figure.
• 6 Missy Bay – Spent all of 2014 on the turf until her last race where she ran a good second at this class on the inner. If she duplicates that effort she is in the mix.

Race 7

I struggled a little bit after I got by the 1 and 3. Just Catty is one of those horses that always gets my attention, especially at the odds. I think when you are doing public selections you have to be pretty solid when you put a 12-1 shot on top, and I couldn’t put her ahead of Sherifa, but I’m expecting I’ll get a run out of the horse. I also had a difficult time with the third slot, and I vascillated between Graceful Gal and Moves Your Soul, finally settling on the latter. I just liked that the horse finally got a break after being a competitor all year. Still, Graceful Gal is one of the horses that has had some good two turn success, albeit on the turf. She apparently didn’t take to the dirt last out and if she beats me she beats me.

• 1 Sherifa – dominant figures, should be the pacesetter, and a good effort last out on the dirt. ML favorite and looks best here.
• 3 Just Catty – Had been running well at FL and came to AQU where she was overmatched in the Stallion Series. Two wins at a mile, and some good maintenance works getting ready for this. At 12-1 ML she could be the value play of the day.
• 5 Moves Your Soul – lots of seconds and thirds at FL this year. This is her 19th start of 2014 but her first in five weeks. She may have been tired in her last start when she looked ready to roll to the lead at the top of the stretch but hung.  She should be pressing the leading group and if she is back in condition she could be the danger.

Race 8      Alex M Robb       4-3-1

This is another really competitive race. I think you could make a case for at least 5 of the 8. Big Business is a horse that has run well all year, but has a touch of seconditis, so I discounted his chances at the top spot. Awesome Vision just doesn’t seem to be as good as he was in 2013, but he’s still a decent animal. Beautyinthepulpit is one of those horses that drives me crazy – a plodder early in the race but makes a furious move in the stretch. I think the 4 has a distinct pace advantage, and I like the other horse with a trainer switch, Effinex.

• 1 Big Business – Was not going to beat Private Zone or Secret Circle in the Cigar Mile. Lots of seconds this year, including one in the G1 Forego. Has consistently run good figures and should be in a good position turning for home. One of the contenders.
• 2 Awesome Vision – only win this year came last out in a non-conditioned allowance. Despite the 4-1 ML looks too slow to finish in front.
• 3 Effinex – ambitiously placed in the Hawthorne Gold Cup last out but ran a decent fourth despite a troubled break. The switch to Jimmy Jerkens seems to have helped him – his last two races have been his best in terms of figures. Major player in here.
• 4 Read the Byline – switch to Nevin got the gelding to run his best lifetime figure last out. Has the best early speed of this group and will take some catching. Very dangerous today.
• 5 West Hills Giant – Another one that is very consistent but has not been able to win at this distance. A contender but lower on the win probability list.
• 6 Gridley Here – Looks up against it in this field.
• 7 Sinistra – Perhaps better than 20-1 but still doesn’t look like top 3 here.
• 9 Beautyinthepulpit – Beaten by Effinex two back. Irad gets the reins here and that may help the horse a bit. A minor contender in my opinion

Race 9

The last race is another unsettled affair. I couldn’t make a case for the 1, 3, 4, 6 or 7. That left the 2, 5, 8 and 9. Given the record of the 9, I went with 2, 5, 8 in the top slots. But again, I don’t think this is a race to bet the farm.

• 8 Rockjaz – First time starter for RuRod and he is a decent 13% with debut runners. Has been steadily prepping on the inner for his debut. Rockport Harbor’s have not been world beaters, but given the strength of this field I’m inclined to look for a horse that hasn’t developed a down side on the track yet.
• 5 False Positive – didn’t break well last out but finished with a rush. Has been competitive in his last four starts and has the right to improve, but at the odds I’m looking for better value.
• 2 Black Friday Rush – had been very disappointing on turf but showed some life when switched to a MCL on a sloppy inner track. Could improve today although at the odds is not likely to stimulate a win bet.

Race 1

• 8 Rose Quartz – yes, she has 9 starts but 7 of them were on the turf and she has at best average turf breeding. Since switching to the dirt she had a third on a sloppy track and then made a big middle move but flattened badly. She’s bred well enough for the distance and considering it is only her third start on the dirt, she has the best figures,  and she is taking a big drop in price, we’ll give her top billing.
• 7 Papous Mia Bella – second start maiden has a nice third at today’s class and distance despite being squeezed at the start. Has a lot of upside.
• 6 Senso – nine starts with four seconds and a third. Certainly has the figures to compete but still waiting for her to show the heart to win.

Race 2

• 8 N.F’s Destiny – I don’t know what to do with Jacobson. Friday he was unstoppable. Saturday he was radioactive. This one looks more typical of the Jacobson winners. Five good races and then he slices the claiming offer in half. As much as you might hate backing these horses, he has the best figures and rarely runs a bad one.
• 1/1a Wild Finish/Carolinian – both horses have spent time at Finger Lakes but have competed with the big boys too. Wild Finish is more of a pressing type while Carolinian should be the one pushing the 8. They both have competitive figures and have been stabled at BEL for a while so they should be acclimated. Like the workout pattern and at 8-1 ML they are worth watching.
• 5 Pretension – throw out the last race and he’s right in the mix. Has a lot of good races on the fast dirt. He landed at the end of the selection list only because there are no workouts since Nov. 30

Race 3

• 5 The Lewis Dinner – on a two race win streak including a state-bred stakes last out. Can’t argue with the figures but at 3/5 on the ML she’s not likely to warrant my win money.
• 2 Kathy’s Humor – Good debut but a little concerned there have been no works in the last month. Gets Irad for the trip and that is a positive. Violette is fair with 2nd start maidens and 2 year olds.
• 6 Omagoddonna – won a $50K starter last time and adds blinkers today. May give the 5 some competition today.

Race 4

• 7 Pitched – Assaf Ronen grabbed this one two back for this price, jumped her up and brings her back for the original claiming price. Given Ronen’s record it is a little bit of a stretch to look at this one in the win slot, but the 6-1 ML makes the horse interesting.
• 2 Reckless Move – is the 8-5 ML favorite and while she may have the best figures, she’s only the favorite because the field is not strong and while I think she is very vulnerable it’s hard to come up with a lot of alternatives.
• 6 Prove It All Night – Lots of speed and two starts on the inner. I think the 1 may compromise this one on the front end, but she has the potential to set a comfortable pace and wire the field.

Race 5

• 3 Disco Partner – one start, one win and in a very good time. Junior Alvarado continues his comeback and he looks to have recovered from his injury nicely. Steady workouts since his debut.
• 7 Chasing Bubbles – wired a field last out on the inner. Stepping up quite a bit from that one, but he is a legitimate front runner and his figure jumped way up last race. With continued improvement he has a shot in here.
• 4 Deputy Busterstone – Tried Saratoga first time out, ran a fair race, moved to FL for a couple of state bred stakes and broke his maiden last out in dominating fashion. Back with the big boys again today with some useful racing lessons behind him.

Race 6

• 7 Mighty Zealous – hasn’t run a bad race in his career. I like the pressing style in this one – there is some decent speed signed on and that may be to his advantage. Fast work a couple of weeks ago. Seems to have a preference for the fast track, and might have been looking for his second win in a row had it not been for some traffic coming into the stretch last out. Not the fastest figure but close to the top and the running style may be enough to get the win.
• 5 Giantinthemoonlite – Puts the blinkers on for Bruce Brown, but he is 0 for 17 with that move. Another that hasn’t run a bad one, Lots of speed, but doesn’t look like a need to lead type.
• 1 Between the Lines – ran in a few 5 1/2 furlong affairs last winter. Has won off the layoff and the works look positive. Perhaps a bit of a stretch given Lostritto is the trainer, so I would say watch the board and see if he looks live.

Race 7

• 6 Cosmic Coincidence – Last win was at this level two back. Has a lot of speed and the ability to wire this field at a bit of a price.
• 5 Horatio – should be one of the trackers. Claimed two back and then jumped up to $35K NW3. Finished a close second in that one and is back to $25K today. Shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. Two wins in 21 starts a little thin, but 13 second and third place finishes should put him in the mix.
• 2 Salisbury Knight – was stuck at the NW1X level for 7 starts but won last out. Drops in for a tag today, not a substantial drop in class but perhaps enough to give him some outs. A little concerning both his wins have come on a sloppy track and he is 0 for 6 on the fast dirt. Certainly would be no value at his ML odds of 2-1.

Race 8

• 2 Amulay – After a win in the mud at SAR Bruce Levine shipped the horse to Parx where she won an allowance and finished second in two OC $25K. Has been working steadily at BEL for this return. Her figures make her competitive in this group.
• 7 Dear Mama – finally broke through at the NW1X level. The clear speed of the field and will have to be caught to be beaten. Farthest she’s gone but she did take to the one turn route at AQU.
• 6 Lotsa Noodles – veteran mare has had a good 2014 with six starts, two wins and three seconds. She was claimed last out by Steve Klesaris and runs for a tag in this OC $60K event. Like the step up today and like the tracking style. Has the figures to be competitive here.

Race 9

• 2 Beyond the Green two second place finishes in a row, including one on the inner. Ryerson is having a good inner meet with limited starters. Good maintenance work a week ago. Will need a first class ride from Franco to get good position to unleash a stretch kick
• 3 Swivel – Finished right behind the 2 in his last. Another that comes from the back of the pack. Alvarado takes the mount and he is familiar with the horse having ridden him in his maiden sprint at AQU. Exceptional breeding for the distance and really a co-choice with the 2.
• 7 Space Oddity – ran well in his first dirt route after being wide throughout. Steady series of works including a Christmas Eve blowout. First time on a fast dirt and if he takes to it, could be home free.

Race 1

This is not a particularly good race and coming up with a confident contenders was no easy task. There are a few horses that could finish in the money that I downgraded in terms of win potential.

• 6 Here’s Trance – only three lifetime starts and looks like far and away the best speed. Takes the blinkers off which may help him relax a bit and gets first Lasix, which given his fading tendency could help. The horse is 30-1 on the ML but he’ll almost certainly go off lower.
• 11 Constantine – the ML favorite for Jacobson who came out of the holiday break with a vengeance. He’s another of those horses who show up in the Jacobson barn after being cast off by another trainer, in this case Bob Baffert. He has the fastest figure, although not by a lot. He’s making a substantial drop in claiming price and would be no surprise at all.
• 4 Scully – has actually been improving and ran his best race when put on the inner. Adds blinkers today and with some improvement could be in the mix.

Race 2

The scratch of the 11 leaves me with a bit of a dilemma. Wicked Irish has some big figures – from 2012 – and Peter Chin looks like he might be in a race himself – for worst trainer at AQU. In that spirit Johnny Star doesn’t look horrible, but he is trained by the current worst trainer at AQU, Leslie Hinds. Grandpa Len will pick up some action but he is 1 for 27 with a lot of seconds and thirds making him a dicey win bet but one to use in the combinations.

• 6 Brother Ralphie – showed a liking for the inner and really may only have to contend with Wicked Irish on the front end.  The latter has been off for two years and could be any sort. Linda Rice has been having an unispiring meeting so far, but sprinting claimers on the dirt are her best game.
• 7 Blue Chips Only – Came off the turf to run second in the same race as Brother Ralphie. He has a nice pressing style and should be coming at the leaders in the stretch. Certainly has as good a chance of winning as any horse in the race.
• 11 Giant Jo – puts the blinkers on for Schettino. Faded badly in his last in the mud after leading for a half but that can be excused. Ran some good figures on the turf, and in this field if he could duplicate one he would be the winner.

Race 3

• 2 Aleander – broke poorly last out but managed to close by all but the first two. Drops from MSW to this $30K claimer. Has the best lifestime figure in the field and unless the track is severely speed biased, he should be the winner.
• 1 Marble Falls – last two races were on wet surfaces where he showed speed before fading in the stretch.  This six furlong trip is as short as he’s gone and that is probably to his advantage. Junior Alvarado is back riding in NY and he has had some history with the horse. A couple of good maintenance works should make this his best effort.
• 4 On the Curve and 6 Read the Mirage finished second and third last out and are really inseparable here. Read the Mirage has a bit more speed and adds blinkers today. On the Curve showed a nice pressing style and a little better closing ability. I think you can make an equal case for either of them and while I don’t think they’ll defeat Aleander, they can be factors.

Race 4

RuRod scratched the 1a Treasury Devil but left Springcourt in the race. Springcourt is a useful runner and has bounced between stables his last few races. Jumps up in price, but certainly looks a lot more interesting as the remaining runner for Rodriguez.

• 2 Golden Itiz – best last race figure and making a drop from OC $62K. Has run well at the distance, although his record on a fast dirt is not very inspiring. Still, he should have no trouble finding the front and has pretty decent staying power.
• 1/1a Snake Pit/Treasury Devil – Snake Pit has two seconds on the inner and is one of the horses Chad Brown left in New York. Has run well on lesser circuits and has some competitive figures. Treasury Devil goes for RuRod. He’s had all his success on the turf and has some competitive figures.
• 3 Nubin Ridge – hasn’t seen a fast dirt track in months, but the versatile runner has been effective on turf and the fast dirt. Fits at this level and is appealing at 12-1 ML

Race 5

• 2 Maximus Mike – only six races into his career and has already been claimed twice. Broke his maiden at second asking at a mile and an eighth after running a pretty fair race in his debut on the inner turf. Ran ok as the favorite last out in a race won by Artemus Paperboy who won yesterday. That race was a sprint and he is back at his preferred distance today. This is as low a price as he’s seen and if he is ready there is every reason to expect a first rate effort.
• 3 Face the Race – makes a big drop but already has 16 starts under his belt, most of those on the turf. Always seems to be close but hasn’t gotten to the winner’s circle this year. Maybe the drop and the switch to the inner will be what he needs.
• 10 Kodiak Kody – another that hasn’t been anywhere near this level. Has a win on a fast dirt, but hasn’t seen that track condition since April. If he runs to his best figure he has a real shot at the win.

Race 6

• 3 Waco – pace presser has run consistently competitive figures. Should be the front runner and has wired a field before.
• 5 John’s Island – best last out figure. Only has four races at this distance and has a win and a second. Also has a second in three tries on the inner. Best closing kick and should be coming at Waco at the end.
• 7 Leilani’s Ticket – won his last on the inner for Contessa in a OC $40K. Good enough to keep that streak going.

Race 7

• 5 Zippity Zoom – was very wide into the stretch but made up good ground at a distance that may have been a little too short. City Zip filly jumps up from MCL ranks to MSW. I think at 8-1 she’s the interesting horse.
• 8 Bossy Boots – best last race figure and with only four starts still has eligibility to improve. Looks better suited to the six furlong distance.
• 2 Stonely Heart – finished behind Bossy Boots last out and adds blinkers today. Fast work on Dec 15 and may improve enough to find the wire first.

Race 8

With the scratch of Spa City Fever some of the early speed is gone, and this may benefit Irsaal. Moneyinyour Pocket also moves up a bit. Overall, I thought this was a race where you could make a case for a lot of horses.

• 10 Irsaal – coming off two mediocre races in stakes but is three for three in the money on the inner. Drops in for a price and the last time he did that he won. On a positive note, he did show some front running ability in his losing stakes efforts, and that is enough for me to have some optimism. Can’t imagine you’ll do worse than get the 3-1 ML.
• 5 Erik the Red – two wins, a second and a third in four starts on the inner. Seems to be better suited to the fast inner dirt. Only his second race back off a six month layoff and Linda Rice is 18% with these runners. More of a closing style, but it looks like there should be plenty of pace to run at.
• 7 Spa City Fever – one of the more experienced runners. Rarely doesn’t give a good effort. Top figure and probably the one to catch.

Race 9

• 3 Cay to Pomeroy – Plenty of speed and a winner on the inner. Michelle Nevin claimed him for $12,500 in October, and he has been working steadily for her since then. Could wire the field off his best.
• 5 Island Sunset – hasn’t been out since last January but Jacobson just can’t be ignored. His figures at his best are tops here. Steady works since October for this return.
• 6 Tummel – was in with a pretty decent group of $12,500 claimers last time on the inner and ran a strong second. This is the second off the claim by Abby Adsit and she has been excellent with her claims.

Before you say, no horse is unbeatable, he certainly looks to be the strongest of the contenders, but if he goes off at 4/5 I’d suggest he was unbettable. Let’s look at the field for the Malibu.

Conquest Two Step won a 6 1/2 downhill on the turf last out, and that was his first win of the year. Even off of his best, he looks nowhere good enough to win this race.

Chitu is a horse that prefers running near the front as he demonstrated in his races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. He hung around in the Derby for a little over a mile, ultimately finishing in the middle of the field. I think Baffert smartly gave him a break until the Damascus Stakes where Chitu comfortably beat a decent field, including Midnight Hawk. Based on his past performance and that last race, he looks like a seven furlong horse. He’s likely to have the jump on Shared Belief and that makes him dangerous. Baffert normally works his horses fast, and if the quick works tip the horse’s form, he is in good condition.

Indianapolis had no chance in the BC Sprint after a sluggish start, but he did manage to pick up some lengths in the stretch. He’s normally been a tracking horse, and in this field he is likely to do the same. His number from the sprint is somewhat artificial, especially considering his 10th place finish, but he did run the last quarter in 23 2/5, which  is real racehorse time. Still, he lack some of the experience of the others, and his win in the San Pedro had to be downgraded due to the very short field. At best it looks like he is there for a while, but unlikely to hold off the classier animals.

Rprettyboyfloyd is another that seems destined for no better than a lesser award. He’s been fair at the distance, and at 30/1 ML there aren’t too many offering the horse a reasonable chance. I think he’s better than 30-1 but I have reservations about using him today.

Pimpenel ran well in an OC$62 last out -in fact, it was a lifetime best for him. He’s the lesser of the Baffert runners, but you can never discount where BB places his charges. He’s a three year old with a lot of upside and is likely the front speed out of the gate. Interesting at 10-1.

Midnight Hawk peaked early in the year, barely losing the Illinois Derby to Dynamic Impact. That one has only come back once and did not run a particularly good race. Midnight Hawk had no chance in the Damascus after bobbling at the start and running wide, but did come back with a fair race at Del Mar in the late fall meeting. Probably the least of the Baffert runners and at 6-1 ML, sitting at optimistic odds.

Tamarando has spent a career on the turf and synthetic, and would be a big surprise here today.

Shared Belief has shown a lot of versatility, winning from 6 furlongs to a mile and a quarter. If not for the trouble in the BC Classic (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?s=The+Butterfly+Effect) Shared Belief had a chance to remain undefeated. He is inarguably the fastest and most accomplished horse in the race. If you are trying to make a case against him it may be that he’ll be dependent on the pace setup from the Baffert runners, but bet against him at your own peril. He has an accelerator button that few others in here can match.

Diamond Bachelor is 20-1 on the ML and he looks outless at any odds.

Frensham is an interesting entry for Doug O’Neill. He’s mostly started on the turf and really hasn’t distinguished himself. Nothing I see recommends him.

In summary, Shared Belief looks head and shoulders above this field, but the Baffert runners, Chitu and Pimpernel, both look interesting. Mike Smith will need to keep Shared Belief clear because if he has an open run in the stretch it is hard to imagine he doesn’t get by everyone.

I hope everyone had a good holiday. Back to the grind today.

Race 1

• 9 Really B Cat – came out last March on the inner as a 9-5 favorite in a $16K maiden. Was claimed out of that one by Linda Rice and she immediately jumped him to a MSW where he didn’t raise a gallop. He took a break until December 15 and came out running, tracking close and finishing 6 lengths back in 3rd. The move from open $12,500 maidens to state-bred $25K really isn’t a class rise. Not the fastest figure in here, but a lot of upside considering it was his first race in 8 months.
• 7 American Hero – where was this guy on Veteran’s Day? Making his 9th start for low percentage trainer Patrick Quick. Ran pretty well in his last, finishing only a head behind the winner but 9 lengths in front of the third place runner. Should be midpack and closing late.
• 5 Blue Collar Cat – represents the best of the speed but has not shown great heart in the stretch, especially at this distance. Still he’s dropping enough that his speed may hold up longer

Race 2

• 1a Ring Knocker – Came out of the Frizette to finish second on the AQU main as the favorite. First time around  two turns but being a Birdstone she shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Has to overcome the tendency to finish second.
• 7 Doukas – has the top figure at the distance, but is another that seems to have trouble passing the last horse. Has gotten a couple of works since her last and looks competitive here.
• 4 Been Here Before – is first time Lasix for McLaughlin. Had a lot of trouble at the start of her last and a little bit of improvement puts her right in the mix

Race 3      Gravesend Handicap      3-2-4

• 1 Green Grotto – two starts already on the inner dirt this winter. His last was a really good effort dueling all the way around the track and only losing by a length and a quarter. He is the best speed in the race but he is only 3 for 28. If the track is speed favoring it ups his chances but otherwise he looks slated for a minor award at best.
• 2 Dads Caps – will have to deal with the 1 on the front end but he is not a need to lead type. He’s 5 for 5 first or second on the inner, and has looked good in each of his last three. He’s got good sprint breeding, and a useful series of works since his last.
• 3 Mewannarose – best on a fast track and is tough at the sprint distances. Has a win in two tries on the inner. Has shown improvement lately and had a great workout seven days ago.
• 4 Salutos Amigos  – the star of the field after a decent run in the BC sprint. Came back to win the Fall Highweight convincingly and drops 9 pounds from that effort. However, that was on a sloppy main and he is 4 for 4 on the wet track. Lots of talent and lately at the top of his game, but I’m looking for a higher odds result.
• 5 Crafty Dreamer – a solid runner but perhaps a bit up against it in this group. Still, only four horses to beat and he has had some success on the inner.

Race 4

• 8 Socialsaul – has the best figures in the race and is a 30% winner lifetime. Since getting claimed by Jacobson on September 1, he’s raced seven times, with good success. In fact, his worst race was his last when he jumped up to $20K and was soundly beaten. He’s back for $10K today and if he holds together he could start a fresh streak.
• 1 Felons Only – has been hanging around Finger Lakes and Presque Isle this year with moderately good success. He’ll almost certainly be ignored in the betting, but he’s had a win at this distance and at a higher level and isn’t without chances today.
• 4 I Want You to Know – The quality of this field is not high, so you can’t automatically pitch horses with early foot. This pick is listed at 10-1, pretty juicy odds.. This horse has been racing at this level for quite a while now, and although he only has 1 win in 16 races this year, he looks like he is in good condition. He has good figures and a front running style and I’ll give him a shot today.

Race 5

• 5 Traipse in Utopia – broke her maiden for $40K and jumped up to a state-bred NW1X. She down to a $50K starter today in search of a win. She looks to have far and away the best speed in the race, and there is every reason to expect she’ll establish a lead on her own pace. Her breeding suggested dirt, and once Hennig switched her she woke up. If she is anything close to her 8-1 ML she could be an excellent bet.
• 4 Maura’s Pass – she made a mild improvement when shifted from the turf to a sloppy BEL track, but then took a leap forward when moved to the AQU dirt. None of the races that day were particularly quick and she never had to extend herself, winning easily in hand. Even given the loping way she came home her time is competitive. The fact that Jason Servis moves her up to a $50K starter looks positive.
• 2 Wraith – one of those horses that finishes in the money a lot, but has trouble cracking the winner’s circle. She’s certainly good enough to win the race on figures, but I’m going elsewhere for the win today.

Race 6

• 9 She’s All Even – Contessa is 13% with 2nd time starters.  She broke from the rail and looked good to the stretch, but faded on a rail that wasn’t particularly kind to front speed. She was 31-1 first out and will be substantially less than that today. The rider switch from Serpa to Jose Ortiz is a big plus. She is far and away the best speed and has a figure that puts her on top of this field. Finally, she is dropping to MCL from MSW and that should allow her to carry her speed to the wire.
• 5 Golden Starlet – raced well when switched to the inner dirt and a sprint. Her figure is second only to the 9. A little improvement today puts her on the board.
• 6 Accelebrate – dropped from MSW to $40K claimers but broke last in the field ran fairly evenly around the track. If she breaks this time she should be more of a factor.

Race 7

•  1 Slan Abhaile – first, kudos to Imbriale for getting a tough pronunciation right (Slawn Awallya). It means “safe home” and I’m looking for this one to make it home first in this race. His maiden start was on a sloppy track that didn’t play well to horses on the inside. He actually broke from the outside post, worked hard to get the lead and faded in the stretch. He has been with better horses recently, dropping from an OC $62 to an open $40K. He looks to be a better fit for the six furlong distance and should be in a good spot turning for home.
• 8 Luckysdream – Pletcher snagged this horse from Jacobson in March for $50K and drops him to $40K today, an interesting move. He is another with a preference to run to the front, and has some massive figures from 2013. Pletcher usually has his horses ready to roll of the layoff, and given the steady workout pattern it looks like this one fits.
• 4 Regulus – he looks ideally slotted for six furlongs and given the surplus of speed in here he may be the one to benefit.

Race 8

• 2 Misszippityslewda – first off the claim for Jacobson. She fits the distance and the price level and has competitive figures. Pretty much gives a good effort every race. . Six furlongs is probably to her advantage.
• 5 Make the Moment – just missed on the sloppy AQU main last out and should be one of the horses closing in the stretch. She has the best last race figure as well.
• 4  Irish Whisper – dominated a NW1X field last out. Ran well on the inner earlier this year, likes the distance and likes a fast track. should be the front runner today.

Race 9

• 3 False Positive – ran into wet tracks his last two but has shown enough front running ability to be a factor here.
• 11 Wild Freud – has the best last race figure and a good race over the inner. The outside post could be an issue, but if he gets into the race early he has a good shot.
• 5 Masterkey – first timer for Rudy Rodriguez has a regular set of works on the inner and at 15-1 is worth watching.

Looks like a competitive day with lots of potential prices.

Race 1      5-1-4

Oh Poggibonsi has the fastest last race figure and should be in front down the backstretch. Mr Amos is the better of the entry, Scattered Dreams ran some quick races two months ago and beat a weak $40K maiden field last out.

Race 2      7-6-2

Kibble has spent most of her career on the turf despite being much better bred for the dirt. I’d like to have seen a workout in the last two weeks but he should have no problems with the distance. Fiery Cat comes in from Churchill where he finished up the track after a troubled start. Before that she ran a good second at this level at KEE. Blinkers go on today for McLaughlin. Black Corona improved remarkedly when moved to the dirt.

Race 3      4-6-3

The East View for two year old state-bred fillies is today’s third race. I’m giving the nod to Freudie Anne. After getting trounced along with everyone else in the Gimma Stakes she came back with a powerful win in an OC $75K. She should be tracking My Super Nova and gets first run in the stretch. Building Permit ran behind Freudie Anne in her last and is another with stretch running chances. My Super Nova is the speed but looks to have better sprint breeding.

Race 4      3-12-10-1

Perchance has been working lights out for McLaughlin and is well bred for the sprint distance. Fortress is the other McLaughlin trainee. She has a long set of works culminating with a quick 4F two weeks ago. The combination with Dylan Davis hasn’t produced a win yet, but she has outs in this field. Lil Lady Big Purse is by Indian Charlie, a horse that is noted for siring sprinters. Shettino is 15% with first starters and Franco is a good choice for the ride. Yes for Success goes first time for Kimmel off a good set of breezes at BEL.

Race 5      3-8-9

North Ocean is by far the best speed and if the track is fair he has a chance to wire the field. State Flag is well hidden given his 12-1 ML He was claimed last out by Danny Gargan who is 20% first off the claim. I never feel giddy over plodders, but he should have some pace to run at. Rap d’Oro is another longshot that interests me. Hes been closing well regularly and that’s enough to give him some outs.

Race 6      5-1-6

Moldavite should have the lead here, but is not a need to lead sort. She’s dropping from MSW and speed with a class drop is always a dangerous angle. Southern Sunshine is listed as the favorite but with 11 starts so far I’m going to be a little wary about backing her for the win. Agate is another dropping to the MCL ranks after being off for almost 7 months. Works are nothing special but Donk is 29% off the long layoff.

Race 7      2-5-8

Saythreehailmary’s has two good figures in a row and a nice pressing style. She’s doe fine at the one turn mile but this will be her first two turn race. We’ll see if she handles it well. Storied Lady has been racing well with state bred stakes runners all year and is 2 for 4 on the AQU inner. Canal Six might be a step below some in here, but has the numbers to compete.

Race 8      6-9-12

In this very competitive Damon Runyon, I’m going to take a flyer with Possilicious. He wired a field a little over three weeks ago but steps up today to the mile seventy distance. His breeding suggests the longer race is within his ability but he may have a future more as a sprinter. He gets a shot today. Bullhead Boy has been in nothing but state bred stakes since breaking his maiden at SAR. Given Pletcher is the trainer, you have to extend respect, although you have to wonder if the horse had a high level future if he wouldn’t be in Florida. Still he’s a state bred and this may be where he needs to stay. Good Luck Gus has been running well but not really good enough to beat the big boys. Still he has plenty of experience and RuRod on his side.

Race 9      5-4-10

Discreet Force is as the right level today after failing to bust into the top three in his last. Still she’s got good numbers and a nice tracking style. Mama Zee is the ML fav off a nice last race run. She’s got two seconds in three starts on the inner. R Girl She Gone has a second on the inner in her last out. The Persaud/Mangalee combo is hitting at 30%.

Had a late game last night. Championship game in an early season tournament between two top 5A teams that went into overtime, so I lost a little handicapping time, but I got up early to make up for it so I’m looking for another good day.

A few scratches today changed some races for me so we’ll see what happens.

Race 1      3-2

Race 2      4-5-2

Race 3      3-5-1

Race 4      11-9-5

Race 5      2-3-1

Race 6      3-10-8-7

Race 7      4-3-7

Race 8      5-7-1

Race 9      3-12-9

I didn’t have a lot of insight today. Seems like a number of favorites look good and I struggled to come up with solid longshots. Been tough to find a rhthym for the inner, but if we could get the weather to settle that will come.

Race 1      4-5-1

Race 2      6-1-4

Race 3      1-3-4

Race 4      1-5-4

Race 5      5-7-1

Race 6      2-4-1

Race 7      2-6-5

Race 8      11-9-12

Race 9      9-11-1

With apologies, it’s supposed to be in the 60’s in Denver today and instead of hanging around all day I’m going to make some bets and head to the golf course. Can’t let these warmer winter days go to waste.

Race 1      4-1-7

Race 2      1-2-3

Race 3      2-1-3

Race 4      4-6-1

Race 5      8-6-7

Race 6      3-2-8

Race 7      6-2-1

Race 8      6-7-3

Race 9    10-3-2