Holy Trifecta, Batman. Look who’s back handicapping. I’m sure to be a bit rusty, but I’m sure to pull a couple of rabbits out of my hat. I’m not promising I’m back full time – I still have to finish basketball – but I’ll be posting more and more often until I’m back full time.

Race 1      1-6-3

Let’s start the day with a long shot. Ecoach is listed at 20-1 on the ML. She’s making her second start since October and has an interesting mix of plusses and minuses. Her win clip is 37%, but her performances on the inner have been less than inspiring. She was probably in better races at FL, but she has definitely tailed off since she turned 6. I think the last race was a little better than looked, and despite being off four months her effort was encouraging. She was in the same race as horses that will be far lower odds and I think the difference is enough to make a small investment in her favor. Discreet Force ran to the front last out and did well to hold on to second. Same race may give her the front spot today. Island Candy was the winner of that race and has shown both an ability to lead and to track. Given 6 of the 8 starters are coming out of the same last race, a similar result is not unlikely.

Race 2      2-8-5

The second has a few money burners and disappointments.  Aleander has the figures but is making his twelfth attempt to break his maiden. He’s five and not a winner and at 7-2 doesn’t make for an inspiring bet. Retire Fifty Five is also heading in that direction, as well as having a case of seconditis. Those two can certainly be part of the tri or super, but I’m going to leave them out of the win slot. I going with Hollywood Idol. He’s only shown a modest amount of talent in his first two, and it appears that he’s had some physical issues to overcome. He started out in the Pletcher barn and shifted over to Jimmy Jerkens for his only start of 2014. He puts on blinkers for today’s start and that should help him focus. He been bet a little in both of his starts, and it’s a good sign he has been working regularly for this race. He’s a horse that was thought to have a lot of talent, he’s well bred for the distance, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he threw in a good one today. Chase the Love got a good figure off his last race, but it has to be a concern that trainer is pretty pathetic. His first two starts were on wet tracks, and the last wasn’t too bad at all. He gets first Lasix today, and that may give him a lift. Zingarelli is a Kiaran McLaughlin first timer who is nicely bred and has a good workout pattern, although nothing beyond a half mile. McLaughlin is fair with first timers. A chance but I don’t think 5-2 is appealing.

Race 3      3-8-9

Brad’s Ruby has four starts on the inner with a second and a third. She’s been with a lot better in the not too distant past – this is as low as she’s been. I like her last and she has a decent maintenance work. She should be the one to catch. Appearance had a nice start at this price a month ago and was able to get a maintenace work in five days ago. She’s been fairly consistent with her figures, but like most in here doesn’t standout. Charming Eyes is listed as the favorite off a win and a second in her last two on the inner. She looks as good as anything, but doesn’t inspire 2-1 odds.

Race 4      8-5-4

War Hero makes his first start for Eddie Kenneally and comes back at the same price. He’s got a series of races faster than anything else in here and looks solid as the favorite. Hold Everything makes his second start for DJ after winning for slightly less last out. No reason he couldn’t repeat. Drum Roll is making his first start for Jeremiah Englehart after a year on the shelf. Englehart is a little better than average with layoff horses and while the workouts haven’t been eye-popping they have been steady.

Race 5      7-3-6

Evrybdymstgetstonz is dropping into a state-bred OC $75K after leading half the race and finishing third in the Grade 2 Matron last October. If she hits her previous figure today she sticks out in this field. Graeme Crackers had trouble in the Franklin Square but showed some heart by closing. She certainly figures better than the other three that came ou of the same race. Bourbonstateofmind has a nice turn of early foot and is probably better at the sprint distance.

Race 6      11-8-3

With the scratches of 3 and 11, I’m  going to add the 9 Barrel of Dreams into the mix. She’s dropping out of MSW and cuts back in distance to a sprint. She showed some early foot last out and held a little longer before doing her usual fade. I’m hoping that race gave her a little more bottom and she shows more stretch courage today.

This race is pretty wide open. Miss Bellamy looks like the speed of the speed and has the best last out number. Probably won’t be the favorite and may actually be value. In this race I’m looking for something with value. Secret Militaire is a bit chancey but the 12-1 ML makes her a bit more intriguing. She’s jumping up from $20K to $40K but she has a good front-running rider in Chuck Lopez. She just has that look of a horse starting to get better. Not About the Nail drops out of straight maidens and may turn out to be the best horse in the field. Should be in a good spot to fire on the front runners.

Race 7      8-4-3

Bullheaded Boy had been running in state-bred stakes before Pletcher dropped him into an OC $75K. Hard to tell what his best distance is, but it looks like at best he’ll have to press and make a move in the stretch. Gets extra consideration for having Irad up. Copernicus easily beat a MCL $40K field and was grabbed by RuRod. He fits here today. Deficit Hawk strongly won his maiden but disappointed at the odds on fav in the Rego Park. Violette has him working well and this field may be a lot more to his ability.

Race 8      2-10-4

Don’t Blame Her puts the blinkers on and is dropping way down after making her first two starts in MSW races. Should have high early and has been getting better late in races. Wonderish is another dropping out of MSW, although they were at FL. May be looking for a drier track. Moonlight Fantasy is a five start maiden who is going first out for Jacobson. She was hard to load last out and if she calms a bit today and expends he energy in the race she’s a contender.

With NYRA having trouble with the weather, not to mention the auxiliary gate getting stuck in the snow, I figure time to take a shot with GP. We’ll see how well my handicapping holds up down south in Florida.

Race 1      4-2-8

Dee’s Causeway has had three consecutive races with trouble at the start, which is cause for some concern. Her last two workouts before her November race debut were from the gate, suggesting an issue. In her last race, her turf debut, she was off a step slow but rushed into the race and ran evenly, beaten less than three lengths. That switch to the turf was a tonic for the horse, and a little improvement puts her right there.  The blinkers go on today, and perhaps that will help with focus. The trainer jockey combo is nothing to get excited about, being in the 10% range, but this is about as easy a field as she is likely to get. She’s at the right claiming price. Tumminia will garner favoritism by virtue of her front running ability and best last race number. No reason she can’t win today, but at the price she won’t be much value. Sexual Appeal (wonder how that one got by the Jockey Club) has been off since August. She puts the blinkers on, gets Lasix for the first time, changes trainers, and has a decent set of works for the return. 20-1 ML horse is worth a look.

Race 2      7-3-8

Jay Eye See has had a little bit of trouble being a groom instead of a groomsman, but he is rarely not in the race. He has an in-between look, not a route horse, but not necessarily a sprinter, so the seven furlong distance seems like it might be right for him. He was claimed last out by his previous trainer, usually a good sign. I wouldn’t bet him with gusto, but I like his figures and I like the pace he was on last out. Indian Brut broke his maiden on the slop at AQU in impressive fashion and came back at GP at today’s distance to finish second in a decent allowance race. He broke slow in that affair but managed to rush up near the front and finished well. He should be the favorite and won’t be good odds, but he will be solid in the horizontals and verticals. Pomeroy’s Package wired a cheaper OC field last out in an impressive time. He should be with the front runners and may hang on for the win.

Race 3      7-8-5

It’s Not Me has won four of his eight starts and looks like the speed of the speed. He only has one dismal start on the turf, but his last on the synthetic was powerful and provides reason for optimism. Souper Colossal actually had the lead at one point in the BC Juvenile but was swallowed up by most of the field. That was his only loss in four lifetime starts. He looks like more of a sprinter and has a win at five furlongs. Pow Wow Pal broke his maiden at five furlongs in an off the turf affair and did it in impressive wire to wire fashion. Wesley Ward has been having a good meet and should have him wound up and ready to roll.

Race 4      10-1-6

Performance Bonus had a troubled race first out but still finished second behind Classy Class. He should like the stretch out to a mile and Chad Brown is having his usual successful meet. The only thing Brown is better at than first time starters is second time starters. Vandalize goes first out for Pletcher, who is dynamite with young maidens. I like the speedier works early in the sequence and the mix of four and five furlong drills after that. He should take to the mile and while Castellano and Johnny V go elsewhere, Zayas is a competent sub. He gets the rail so he’ll have to fly early. Key to the Bridge is 20-1 on the ML but Brian Lynch is 25% first out. I like that quick three furlong early in the workout sequence and I like the breeding for the mile trip.

Race 5      5-3-7

El Botas was a first timer at the turf sprint last out and looked good drawing out after getting pressed early. Despite his lack of experience at this level, he is at the top of his game and could be the speed of the speed, although he should get a tussle from Bold Thunder up front. Green Mask finished second to Bold Thunder in the Turf Dash at Tampa in his first try at five furlongs. In that race he broke tenth of 12 and had the unfavorable outside tracking spot. If he gets a better spot out of the gate today he is the danger. The change from Clement to Wesley Ward shouldn’t hurt at all. Prudhoe Bay has a second at this distance in two starts but is coming out of two G3 races, winning the Jersey Shore in August. He’s been off since September but looks like he’s been working reasonably well for his return. He should be one of the ones trying to close for the win.

Race 6      4-10-8

Flashy Jewel is 12-1 on the ML. He vied with 1/2 favorite Royal Sun for the lead in his last, and was checked in the stretch when the eventual winner Tradesman came over. Tradesman was ultimately disqualified and placed behind Flashy Jewel. Flashy Jewel wasn’t going to beat either of the top two, but he ran well considering he was being intimidated between horses in the stretch and lost all chance after checking. I think this race is a better spot – there’s no Royal Son or Tradesman here. Like the experience, speed and works since last. Danzig Moon is coming off a three and a half month break for Mark Casse. His last was interesting – he totally missed the break, held back and closed to only miss by a length and half. A clean break would bode well for him. The Son Wind hasn’t show a lot of heart in the stretch but they have been solid efforts. Some chance today.

Race 7      5-3-13

Chiltern Street goes first time for Wesley Ward. He’s had a good series of turf works and Ward has looked strong with his first time starters. He’s well bred for the turf and the distance. Muhaawer has been sharp in the morning and Kieran McLaughlin has had a good GP meet. He’s moderately bred for the turf but well bred for the distance. Irish Cat is another with the workouts and the breeding to be a factor. Chad Brown and Rosario make the horse look better than the 10-1 ML.

Race 8      12-6-10

Tapicat had an abbreviated season last year, and while Mott isn’t high percentage off a long layoff, she has won coming off the rest previously. She’s certainly classy enough for this field and if she is back in top shape she’s the one to beat. Triple Charm won 2 of 4 last year but did not win her first in 2014  off the year and a half layoff. I think that was excusable, but clearly the horse has some physical delicacy. Still, I like Clement and the workouts and she’s another who is dangerous off her best. Patsy’s Holiday is the Pletcher entrant and is 2 for 4 at GP and 1 of 2 at the distance.

Race 9      7-4-11

I could have picked six horses in this race and not felt confident of the winner. Of the horses that have started, Sir Alfred looks best. He has one start on the slop for Pletcher and looked good vying for the lead between horses. The experience should serve him well in today’s contest. Centauro Star cuts back half a furlong today. Last race he broke slowly, didn’t rush, closed steadily and finished a decent second. Since then he was gelded and shows three nice workouts, the last a bullet blowout. Like his chances today. Rare Art is a Chad Brown first timer spectacularly bred for the sprint. I like his workout pattern, especially the last four furlong breeze.

Race 10      4-8-3

Starstruck makes her 2015 debut after a disappointing 2014. She switches from the Larry Jones barn to Nick Zito. She’s likely the best horse in the race on her best day, although you can never be sure which Starstruck is showing up. Sandiva ran a great race in the Tropical Park Oaks, breaking from the 13 post and hanging on gamely for the win. She was a Group 3 winner in Europe and I don’t think we’ve yet seen her best in America. Scampering already has a start at GP in 2015. She was anxious loading in that race, probably left all her reserves at the starting gate. Can’t underrate the prowess of McGaughey in Graded Stakes, and although this horse has struggled a bit at the level, she should be keyed for her best.

Race 11      3-10-5

Confrontation has five wins from 10 career starts and just missed four weeks ago in the Hal’s Hope to the talented Lea, one of today’s Donn starters. Looks like the value at 5-1 ML. Valid pressed the pace in the Hal’s Hope and may be the frontrunner today. He doesn’t give up easily and will be the one to pass late. Mosler is a newly turned four year old who seems to be getting better. His first turf race showed promise and he gets first Lasix today.

Race 12      3-4-1

Imagining tends to run toward the front in turf marathons, but is likely to be more of a closer at today’s distance. He lost his last to horse of the year contender Main Sequence in the BC Turf and he did just miss to another starter in this race, Lochte, in last year’s edition of GP Turf Handicap. He’s a proven commodity off the bench and should be coming hard at the leaders in the stretch. Grand Tito just missed to Mshawish in the Fort Lauderdale four weeks ago. The extra sixteenth should be in his favor and I look for him to turn the tables today. Mshawish is riding a two race winning streak and has won three of his last four. He’s got talent, but may have a tough time resisting some of the better closers.

Race 13      2-4-1

The Donn came up as a very competitive race. The Todd Pletcher trained Commissioner faces his first test as a four year old. He ran a spectacular race in the Belmont, losing by only a head to the talented Tonalist. He laid off until January where he ran a nice third in an OC $62. It seems likely Pletcher was only trying to give the horse a conditioner in prep for this race, and given the two nice four furlong works since that race he should be on top of his game for the Donn. Castellano bails in favor of the other Pletcher horse, Constitution, and that is of mild concern, but nothing wrong with having Johnny V as your backup. Lea was in great form at GP in 2014 and picked up right where he left off in the Hal’s Hope a few weeks ago. This horse has nothing but heart and anything less than a competitive run would be a surprise. If he has a down side it is that he would probably prefer a distance less than a mile and an eighth, but he obviously can negotiate since he is the defending champ in the Donn. Constitution was the Florida Derby winner at GP but injury kept him off the Derby trail. He came back in an OC $80K in October, a typical Pletcher prepatory move. In that race he stumbled early on and wanted to go-go-go to the front but was wrangled by Castellano. He faded slightly at the end, seemingly a common outcome for horses that use a lot of energy fighting to use their speed. His race in the Clark was almost a winning one, losing only to the very talented Hoppertunity and another Donn  starter Protonico. If he’s learned to relax on the front end he represents a major contender.

Most Likely Winner: 4th race, 2 Flag on the Play   6th race, 5 Royal Currier

Potential Price Horses: None

Race 1      5-1-2

Samus ran a good one last out but it isn’t usually a good idea to take even money on a $10K claimer. Not much real speed in the race and he looks like the best of it. Dariel is a first timer for Gary Gullo. Some nice works should have him ready to go. Westside Tapstress stumbled last out after giving up on MSW. Should improve today.

Race 2      3-7-1

Sopsa ran well in his AQU debut and has the best last race figure. Radiant Cut has been on the improve for Persaud. Just Catty has been with better and showed a decent close in his last race.

Race 3       7-4

Xixixi has back figures that would dominate this field. Hasn’t been out in a while but RuRod has been picking up lately. Private Irving A should be prompting the pace and shouldn’t have to work hard up front.

Race 4      2-5-3

Flag on the Play has three straight second place finishes. Been off a couple of months by Rice has been effective this winter in bringing them back ready. Reach for Yield comes back for Chad Brown. He is strong off the layoff and he should have the horse straightened out. Cosmo Blue has plenty of early and should benefit from the scratch of Sherifco.

Race 5      10-6-4

Dulce de Leche should be the front-runner here and is placed at the right level. Take Issue has been working steadily for his return for Asmussen and drops in price. Busted Handle improved substantially in her last start and another jump puts her right in the mix.

Race 6      5-2-3

Royal Currier ran a good one in the mud and returned to set a solid pace in his last. Drops a lot for his return and has fair works for his return. Doc Almon ran a big one last out and drops back to the level at which Gullo took him. Piquant was over his head last out but drops to a more comfortable level for RuRod.

Race 7      6-3-5

Deficit Hawk smashed through in his maiden for Violette and looks to show his talent in this state-bred stakes. Has the best last out figure. Chasing Bubbles won a NY Stallion Series race at the end of last year and will be in the battle up front. Has shown plenty of heart in his previous starts. Regal Minister is the proven stakes winner. He seems more comfortable at the sprint and should be pressing today.

Race 8      5-3-4

Conzig gets the nod in a generally uninspiring field. Second of the claim for Englehart and that’s enough to boost the horse to the top of this heap. Warm Front only has six starts looking for his third win and that puts him in a better light than most of this bunch. Kiss Cat should be one of the horses battling up front and that may be enough for him to get a piece..

Race 1      6-5-4

Star Magnolia has a good wet track record and is running second off the claim for the effective Abby Adsit. Casual Elegance has five starts on a wet racetrack with 3 seconds and a third and that seems to be her style. Good enough to finish in the money, problems cracking the winners circle. Drops a notch today in search of the win. Brad’s Ruby drops way down for Jeremiah Englehart. Has shown a good turn of foot in her wins and should be pushing the pace.

Race 2      2-4-5

Aleander makes his fourth start since coming to the Jacobson stable from the West Coast. Overall the best figures but not likely to be value. Laghubaar drops from straight maidens to the claiming ranks looking for a win. Considering his first two starts were uninspiring and his connections are willing to let him go cheap after paying $400K at the August 2012 Fasig Tipton sale, they don’t see a bright future for him. Still, he may be good enough to catch a piece here. Perfect American is approaching the professional maiden ranks but does have his best races on the inner and on a wet track.

Race 3      7-5-1

Lubango has been knocking around for a while and has been in the money 50% of his starts. A wet track won’t bother him and he should be able to get good position from his outside post. Holy Invader was only a quarter length behind Lubango and that was his best start in a while. Has been better in the past. Last win came on the inner and perhaps today will be his day. Do a Leggar should be the speed in this race and is two of four on the wet going.

Race 4      6-4-3

Laila’s Jazz has been with better in the past and has the best figure of anyone in the last year. He had bad luck in the race on Dec 8, falling over a downed horse but came back to run well against the strong Be Bullish. Third time on the inner is a charm. Ground Force goes first off the claim for Jacobson. Been off almost four months but has been working steadily in January. Horse likes to win and has been successful on a wet track. Brass Pear is the speed of the speed, and has the best last race figure by far, but is 0 for 4 on the wet. Still a major player.

Race 5      7-4

Is She Hot drops down for RuRod and looks poised against this field. Shine On Erin inherits the second spot. She had her best finish in the slop last out after being wide.

Race 6      9-3-1

Towering Moon is making his second start off a 10 month layoff. Last out he didn’t get out well from the outside post but if he has a better break today should be a big factor. Longfor the City started in September after being off a year, and has been off since. In the meantime he switched trainers to Chad Brown and while the horse likely has had physical issues, the fact that Brown puts him on the track is a positive sign. Goodtolook benefits from the scratch of the ML favorite. Should have the lead and has big numbers from his last on the AQU slop.

Race 7      9-3-2

Court Dancer didn’t look great last out but prior to that had been close. One second from his only start on a sloppy track. Second lasix may help. Jazzminegem ran well in his comback after being off since April. Seems to thrive on the inner. My Won Love has two good races in a row on a wet track. Figures to be fighting at the end.

Race 8      8-7-1

Deceived is making the critical third start of a layoff for top conditioner Michelle Nevin. Was much better at the beginning of 2014, running well enough to place in the Damon Runyon and start in the Gotham. If he recaptures some of that form, he’s the main contender. Royal Posse gets the ultimate equipment change (to a gleding) for this start. Should be toward the front and has shown heart in the stretch. Wildniteattheopera has not finished worse than second in his career, including a trip at this level in the slop last out. May be the value.

Race 9      7-6-3

Marcy inherits the top spot with the scratch of Discreet Force. Not a win machine, but just missed on a good track two back and does make a serious drop in price for this start. Alpha J. gets a huge boost with the scratch of the ML favorite; should be the speed of the speed and is capable of wiring a field with an easy lead. Inaflash has a lot of positives. She’s in good condition, has a recent win on the inner, and is effective on wet tracks.

Most Likely Winners: 3rd race, 2 Solly’s Mischief   5th race, 1 Golden Story

Potential Price Horses: 1st race, 2 Futurazo   4th race, 8 Scorpion’s Touch   6th race, 5 My Savannah Belle   8th race, 4 Ghost Ship

Race 1      2- 7-1

Futurazo is listed at 12-1 on the ML. He had been racing at FL at ALW levels with decent success. He switched trainers to the low key Greg Matties who brought him to AQU in an ALW NW1X. He stumbled badly at the break last out, rushed to be up with the leaders, and expectedly faded.  He gets a jockey switch to Chuck Lopez and that should help him exploit his natural speed. Most Happy Fella closed well against Southern Proper for Chris Englehart but was re-claimed out of that race by Schosberg who had lost him the race before. He has a little trouble getting up for the win but Schosberg has given him enough work to keep him on edge. Vegas No Show seems the better of the two Jacobson horses. He has a way with first time claims and drops this one in half for the race.

Race 2       2-5-4

Jackie Black was claimed in early December by Linda Rice after leading for a half and fading in the stretch. I’m looking for some improvement today on the stretch out. Kool Charli has had two shots in the MCL ranks and drops a bit in price in search of the win. Golden Starlet makes her sixth start of Violette and switches to Manny Franco for this trip. Only has one good race in her PP so may be a bit of chance

Race 3       2-1A-3

Solly’s Mischief hasn’t run a bad race in a year and hasn’t been overraced in that time. Claimed last out by Abby Adsit who has done well with her claims. Distant Thoughts looks to be the better of the two in the entry for Scott Schwartz. Horse stumbled at the start last out and lost all chance, but still showed interest in the race. Straight Bite has two wins, both on a wet track. Still has the figures to be competitive in this field.

Race 4        8-5-1

Scorpion’s Touch had one start on the AQU main and ran evenly. Has come back with a nice series of works including two bullets in his last two. Boldlee gets first lasix after a clunker in his last on the AQU turf. His best race was on a sloppy BEL dirt at today’s distance. May show some spark today. Lehigh Five is one of the first timers and goes for Violette. Bullet in his last work suggests readiness.

Race 5        1-5-3

Jacobson leaves Golden Story in the race and scratches entrymate Big Lute. Golden Story has been almost exclusively on the turf and the synthetic, but I’m going to trust that Jacobson knows what he is doing by leaving him in instead of the 1A. Shot to Win goes for Dominick Shettino. Last out was a good effort, even though it cam two months ago. With Big Lute out he may inherit the front end. Kitchen Police hadn’t raced in close to a year and came out on a sloppy inner where he showed very little. Was claimed by Naipaul Chatterpaul. The switch to Guillermo Rodriguez doesn’t seem to be a positive but he has some races in his PP’s that could be competitive in this field.

Race 6        5-1-3

My Savannah Belle won her first two starts, one on the inner last March. Has a nice series of works for his return including a bullet 12 days ago, same pattern as when he won his last race. Like the tracking style. Had It All has a good lifetime record and some strong figures at Parx. She has high early speed and is not fainthearted in the stretch, so they’ll have to work hard to get by her. Pennymine has been a useful runner for Schosberg and should be one of the ones coming in the stretch.

Race 7        1-6-5

Laura Can Disco makes her fourth lifetime start. She has done nothing but run, and has the best last race number in the field. Champagne Ruby has been in nothing but statebred stakes and has been in and out. Has one lifetime start on the inner with a second place finish. Should benefit if the front runners falter. La Bella Victoria is the other speed and has an affinity for the inner. The powerful Jose Ortiz gets the mount and he has been dynamite on the horse.

Race 8        4-8-10

Ghost Ship ran evenly in his first out but jumps up from MCL to MSW today. Has a real shot at 10-1 ML in what looks like a really competitive field. Call Me Stoney should be toward the front. Levine has kept him on the training track so he should be ready for this one. Watch the Tie will be coming in the stretch and improvement from his last should put him in the mix at the end.

Very busy time of the year for me. I’m refereeing basketball most nights, which doesn’t so much cut into my handicapping time as my writing time. I’m also working on an in-depth story and I’ve been spending quite a bit of time reasearching and talking with people. Anyway, it’s another abbreviated day of selections, and if I get Sunday’s results it will be another profitable day. Sunday I was 9 for 9 with 6 winners on top. While I didn’t go into depth with the analysis, I spent my normal amount of time picking winners.

Most Likely Winners:  6th race, #3 Marc the Sky   7th race, #3 Picesbymoonlight   9th race, #7 Big Lute

Longshot Possibilities: 1st race, #2 Savant   5th race, #8 Southern Proper

Race 1      2-7-3

Race 2      2-6-3

Race 3      8-1-6

Race 4      6-4-5

Race 5      8-2-5

Race 6      3-8-9

Race 7      3-8-2

Race 8      6-4-7

Race 9      7-3-9

No write-up on the selections today since I wasn’t sure there would be racing today.  But I spent my normal amount of time on the selections. We’ll have to see how the track is playing but I’m initially thinking it will be speed favoring.

Most likely winners: 5th Race, #5 March       8th Race #3, Gracenote     Race 9, #10 Read the Mirage

Potential Price Horses:2nd Race, #7 Just Catty     4th Race, #5 Fightin Irish

Race 1      3-6-4

Race 2      7-1-8

Race 3      1-9-11

Race 4      5-3-1

Race 5      5-3-9

Race 6      10-9-6

Race 7      5-8-1

Race 8      3-7-4

Race 9       10-9-6

Only 355 days until Christmas. I can tell because last year’s decorations are still up.

Race 1       6-3-1

Oghma was claimed by Chris Englehart last may at Belmont, brought him to FL where he finished second in a $15K claimer. He’s the best speed in the race, but his figures are a little suspect. Horatio is an interesting horse. His top figures would win this race, but he hasn’t won since June. His last on the inner can be thrown out considering he was rank and wide all the way around the track. He’s the best late runner, so it may depend on how the track is playing. Political Farce was struggling with seconditis, then broke his maiden and won in his first try with winners. His last was on a sloppy inner, and although his only two wins were on the wet he never got into that race. He’s 0 for 13 on a fast dirt but has 7 seconds.

Race 2      2-8-5

Update: with the scratch of the 4  I’ll add the 5 Striking Impact. She has six starts and has shown some speed previously. She has a high wet track rating and Gyamati is 25% with horses debuting for her. 

Pop of Color took the lead in the slop at GPW and only missed by 1 1/2. He’s got a bullet on the BEL training track and if the track comes up soupy he could be splashing wire to wire. I still have a good feeling about Relax in this spot. He has a race over the inner and was really not in a good spot at any point in the race. James Jerkens is not at all successful with second out maidens, so this might be a stretch. His figure is about the same as the 2 and the odds differential may be tough to pass up. Cat Ten is making hier sixth start and although she has been competitive, I’ll look at one of the second start maidens to fill the win slot.

Race 3      3-4-2

None of the 5 horses is without a chance in this field. In all honesty I settled on the 3 in the win slot but couldn’t separate the 2, 4 and 5. Stormalina broke her maiden on the AQU main in the mud in a splended time. She has a strong series of works since Thanksgiving including a bullet 2 days ago. RuRod has been ice cold, except in stakes races. On the down side, no other horse has come out of that November 7 race to win. But if she goes off near her ML odds she may be worth a look. Noble and Beauty also ran a strong wire to wire race at AQU. Three good works since her last should have her on edge. Paulasilverlining has been in two straigh graded stakes, winning the Matron at BEL. She’ll almost certainly be the favorite and if the track is playing fair she’ll be the one running at the leaders.

Race 4      3-5-6

Update: with the scratches of both halves of the 2 entry, the 6 Jigsaw moves into the top three. He’s got two wins in three chances on the wet track and is dropping substantially in price to go in this race. A good pressing style should help today.

Goodtolook was claimed last out for $20K, a price as low as he’s seen. He finished second to Be Bullish in that race, and Be Bullish came back yesterday to beat a pretty good field. That race was in the slop and if the track is similar today his chances go up. Moonluck is the stronger of the two entry-mates, but if Jacobson scratches Moonluck I’ll still use Midnight Taboo. Moonluck is by far the fastest in the race, and is 1 for 1 on the wet. Tizmas is 4 for 8 at the distance and 1 for 3 on the inner. He has superior breeding for the mud.

Race 5      3-7-6

Papous Mia Bella was squeezed at the start in her maiden race and never got into the race in her second out. Her initial figure is plenty good enough to win the race and at 12-1 she an attractive proposition. Naipaul Chatterpaul is a middling trainer, but he’s had the horse since the start and does cut her price in half. Bella Forever just missed two back and last out ran into a monster in Time for Harlan. Should be better suited for the mile. Dance for Joe is another that drops in half for Schettino. She wasn’t pushed in her last event but should be up to the task today.

Race 6      2-7-6

In Kelly’s Defense is a win type. She was claimed by RuRod and won first off the claim, jumped up slightly in price and onlymissed by 3/4 to my Donna Jean. She’s back at the lower level and despite the fact that RuRod is colder than the temperature in Denver, the horse tries pretty much every out.  Liberty Fuze makes a nose dive in price but has the figures to be a factor here. Inaflash was claimed by Danny Gargan and is moved up slightly in price, a good sign. Gargan is 2 for 10 first off the claim.

Race 7      4-7-2

Jazzminegem has a first and a third on the inner and is running second off an 8 month layoff. Linda Rice has not been having a great winter meet, but her in the money percentage is 50%. Her first back off that long layoff she ran a closing third, although she’s shown a pressing style previously. Is the ML favorite, has the ridiculously hot Jose Ortiz and isn’t likely to go off at value odds, but looks strong. Zippity Zoom is the other Rice trainee. She broke her maiden last out on the inner after a strong drive and looks good for a repeat. Verismilitude is coming off a claim by Charlton Baker who is 2 for 5 lately first off the claim. Pressed a hard pace and missed by two and a quarter to Rock N Cozy. The latter horse has two seconds in a row, but only two wins in 32 starts. She does however have 9 place and 9 show finishes, so while I’m discounting her in the win slot she has a lot of potential in the back holes.

Race 8      4-7-6

Update: With the scratch of the 8 I’ll move 7 Seal Team Four into the top three. He took the lead in the slop last out and should be the leader again today. Will have to be caught so we’ll see how if the track favors his style.

This is a very competitive race and coming up with a winner was tough. I settled on Groomedforvictory. The old campaigner is 35 for 54 in the money. He’s 2 for 8 on the inner and his two victories in November were very fast. Was claimed two back by Joe Imperio who brought him back at a $20K starter allowance in the mud where he finished fourth. A return to the previous form puts him on top. joe Mooch faltered last out when wide at 6 furlongs. Seems better suited for the two turns. Five Freedoms is one out of two on the inner and is probably the best of the closing types. Had a great 2014 despite spending most of his time at FL. At 20-1, why not take a look. 

Race 9      1-2-7

Stickler will vie with Alliteration for favoritism. Stickler has three bullets in a row, McLaughlin is 21% first time, and Irad takes the ride. Alliteration is the Chad Brown trainee. She also has a good workout pattern and gets the other Ortiz. Should be a stirring stretch duel. Smart Alex is a second time starter who fought with the winner through a half after breaking a beat behind and having to rush to the front. That is always a death move and with a better break could be the winner if the two first timers don’t live up to their billing.

It looks like another tough card with a lot of competitive races.

Race 1

I say this far too much, but this is about as bad a race as any track could assemble.

• 3 Oohlala – has the best dirt figures in the field, but does not look unbeatable. Puts the blinkers on for Tony Dutrow, Last out she lost all chance at the break but still managed to close lengths to finish 4th. Best race was on a sloppy track at this distance.
• 2 Truly Possible – plodder puts the the blinkers on today and perhaps that will bring out some speed. Simply the second best of a truly dismal bunch.
• 4 Wesdrewmax – May inherit the lead in a group where no horse has a 1 anywhere in her past performance. That’s enough to give her a nod.

Race 2

• 1 Mop Head – Claimed by Grusmark last out for $25K and d rops to half that price today. He won his last despite getting bumped out of the gate in a pretty good time for this class. Given that race was a month and a half ago I’d like to have seen more than one mediocre work almost four weeks ago. He’ll likely be overbet today, but has a  legitimate shot.
• 4 Say Mr. Sandman – Englehart brings the horse back to AQU after a quick trip upstate to FL. Half of his inner dirt starts have been in the money. Is essentially moving up in price since most of his previous starts have been with state breds, but his figures say competitive. Trainer is 23% off the layoff.
• 5 Western Tryst – With the scratch of Island Sunset this RuRod trainee may be right on the lead. He won a statebred NW1X on the inner last season and shifted to the turf for the summer. He switched back to the dirt and caught two wet tracks, a surface that doen’t bring out his best. RuRod has to break out of the slump eventually.

Race 3

• 6 Abra – looks to be far and away the speed in this field, although in his last he never really got int the race. Was good on the inner last season. Drops his tag in half and that should help him on the front end.
• 7 Night Patrol – Ran a fair race in the slop last out. Won at $25K as recently as October 30. Jumped up to a $25K starter allowance but given the slop and the fact that it was second off a layoff, the fair effort can be excused. Has four of nine wins lifetime and Jose Ortiz solidifies his case.
• 1 Bemata – Jacobson trainee finished a good second first off the claim  but last out never got going and finished well back. Return to his last AQU race puts him in the mix.

Race 4

• 6 Regal Strike – Charles Cannon has had only one other AQU starter and that was a winner. He’s an 11% trainer overall mainly on the NJ/PA circuit. Certainly fits the level and has raced with better in 2014. A couple of December workouts should have him ready.
• 1 Artemus Paperboy – three wins in a row, the last at a distance he hadn’t been. Comes back at the route today. Should be in the same tracking position. Jacobson seems to keep his runners in shape, but not all of them can come back in 8 days. Still, you ignore him at your own peril.
• 4 Le Deluge – will be coming in the stretch. Patrick Quick is a very low profile trainer but he picked this one up from Jacobson, who in turn picked the horse up from Chad Brown. It’s possible the horse won’t revert to previous form under Quick’s care, but if he does he’s competitive.

Race 5

• 2 The Spotted Wonder – scratched out of a race yesterday to go in this one. Has been the distance once before, although on a sloppy track. A bit concerning that he hasn’t won in seven starts this year but has been close enough to give him a nod here.
• 6 Futurazo – one of the pressers in this field but should have no issue with the distance. Had 15 starts in 2014 which is quite a few, but has been off a month so should be ready to roll.
• 9 Hidden Warrior – Fleet footed runner is one of a few who should contest the lead. Ran a good one at this level last out. Took until his seventh start to break his maiden, mainly because he is a little sketchy in the stretch. The stretch to the mile and a sixteenth is of concern, but he has been competitive all year.

Race 6

This is another tough early season three year old race. My top three selections are 6-1-5. Instructor Kuno has three figures that are better than any other figure in the race. Calvin Borel comes in to ride and despite the fact he is not the rider he once was that is a positive sign. Money Multiplier is a first time starter for Chad Brown. Brown and Carmouche are an amazing 58% as a team. Lookin At Lucky has been strong with first timers as a new sire. The workout patter is solid and the last work is impressive. On Tap is one of the second time starters. He ran well going half a furlong farther last out and while he is ultimately more suited to the route, the last race should have given him some necessary experience. There are some other horses that could be considered. Balfe’s Corner has been working well for Contessa, although he is only 8% with first timers. May be better suited for the route down the road. Little Love is a Linda Rice first timer with a lot of stamina building works. Sold for six times his stud fee. Would be a lot more dangerous on a wet track. Madroos adds blinkers today after improving in his second start. Upset minded for Kieran McLaughlin.

Race 7

Update: the scratches of the 7 and 1 change the race for me. Both those horses figured to be in the battle up front, Their absence will give an advantage to Be Bullish and The Big Deluxe and may take away the advantage Mine Over Matter had if a speed duel developed. This race just became a lot less discernible. I’ll stay with Laila’s Jazz and perhas go deeper if I play the horizontals.

• 7 Leroy Jr. – Chad Brown and Franco team up for this race. Seems to enjoy the fast dirt. Nice series of workouts in December and competitive figures. Lots of speed to contend with and that may compromise his chances.
• 6 Laila’s Jazz – was involved in the unfortunate accident in his last race but apparently has come out of it in good shape given the quick work on December 26. Had a good 2014 and has a win on the inner.
• 10 Mine Over Matter – Always hard to trust a plodder, but other than his last has been running in nothing but stakes races. Mike Hushion gets Irad to take the ride and considering he only had two races this year certainly has room for improvement.

Race 8

• 9 El Kabeir – Three straight graded stakes, the last a win the Kentucky Juvenile. Calvin Borel takes the mount off his winning ride in that race. Nice set of works in December and should be ready for this one. The outside post shouldn’t be of much concern – he should sprint to the front.
• 7 Akeret – tries a route for the first time off a really quick sprint victory at Parx. RuRod has been ice cold lately but he and Irad are 24%. Maybe better suited for the sprint but worth taking a shot today.
• 4 Ostrolenka – faltered badly in the Remsen but prior to that was strong in state-bred races. Gets a big test today but with Pletcher and the red-hot Jose Ortiz he’s in the mix.

Race 9

• 1 Ghost Ship – first out should have been a good learning race. Tracked in 4th, didn’t pass any horses, but didn’t get passed either. By far the fastest figure of the horses that have started.
• 7 Yourthekingjimmy – first time starter for Shettino who is a fair 17% with firsters. Love the workout pattern. A fast work early in the sequence, and a fast work last time with some stamina building in between. Irad Ortiz takes the ride.
• 6 Private Thrill – showed a lot of early foot first time out. That race was on the mud, and he really doesn’t have great wet track breeding, but he was right on the pace to the stretch and faded a little over six lengths. A little bit of improvement and a fast track make him a contender in this race.

The races have been difficult to bet this week. Fairly full fields, but a lot of races where the favorite looked strong and ran up the track. Rudy Rodriguez has been ice cold, David Jacobson not much better. Eddie Kenneally has brought some horses to NY that have been live. Richard Schosberg has been doing well. Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown have left a few horses in NY with decent success (and no odds). For the time being until RuRod and Jacobson find their form I’ll discount them.

Race 1

• 1 Glenbrook – most of the speed in the race. Dropped to $25K last out on the inner and ran a good third, although she lost a few lengths in the stretch. If she isn’t heartless she should be hard to catch.
• 4 Home to Carrowkeel – started her career on the turf despite not being well bred for the turf. Last race she pressed the early pace as the favorite in the mud but backed up after a half. Nevin has done well on the inner this winter. I’ll bank that she’ll like a fast track more than the mud.
• 6 Agate – Second off a long layoff for Donk who hasn’t quite gotten into stride this winter. She’s taking another drop but ran some decent figures last spring. Should be a decent value and worth watching.

Race 2

• 7 Thug Daddy – ran his best race when dropped to this level and moved to the inner, and adds blinkers today. In a race where too many of the horses are headed for professional maiden status he still has some up side. The suddenly invincible Jose Ortiz rides.
• 1 Cee No More – Takes a 50% drop in price today. Not well bred for the turf and his starts on that surface show it. Last time he was on the good dirt at this distance he ran a strong second. Better prospects than his last three showed.
• 4 Robert Noble – Claimed by Karl Grusmark two back. Jumped up to $25K last out but dropped to the claiming price he was taken at today. Should be contesting the early pace and his last gives him some experience on the inner.

Race 3

• 3 Majestic Affair – maiden winner at Canterbury shipped to SAR for the Saratoga Special where he showed a little bit of early interest but faded to last. He returned in an allowance at Parx and won after a strong drive. That was a positive enough effort that Chad Brown placed him in the Lewis at Laurel where he finished a strong second. He looks fast enough and versatile enough to handle this field. He’s getting better with each race.
• 2 Ship Disturber – wired a field at AQU a month ago in easy fashion. Has every reason to improve today.

Race 4

• 4 Lil’ Zilla – Just broke her maiden last out for $25K in a good time. Should be close to the front. Change to the inner seemed to be the tonic she needed.
• 5 Bella Fachi – In and out filly puts blinkers on today and should be coming in the stretch. At the right level.
• 7 Flirtatious Spring – most of her races have been on the turf. The 1 for 25 record does not inspire confidence but she has only 3 starts on a fast track. If she likes the surface may forget to hang in the stretch.

Race 5

•  3 Taylor Jagger – last out was his first at a route in six months and it came on a muddy track on the inner. I’m looking for improvement with that race on his resume and Irad staying for the ride.
• 1 Star of the Forest – has been racing out west – Finger Lakes, Fort Erie and Woodbine. Didn’t have a bad 2014 and has the figures to compete.
• 2 Rock Show – pressed and ran second at this distance (less 70 yards)  on the inner last out in the mud.  Low profile traner not inspiring but is placed right today.

Race 6      10-4-7

Really tough 2 year old affair. I’m going with Call Me Stoney as the top pick based on his experience and his first race on the inner. First timer True Bet gets the second slot based on the solid first-out percentage of the sire and the trainer, and a workout pattern I like. I’ll put Deficit Hawk in third slot. Violette has been uncanny with first timers and this one has been working well. The other horses with prospects are One Sided. He is trained by Pletcher and has been working steadily at the Palm Beach Downs training facility. Andrew’s Got Zip is the other with experience and Schosberg has had his horses ready to run lately. Pioneeringforgold is up against it from the outside post but Levine is good with firsters and the workout pattern is positive.

Race 7

• 9 My Place – claimed by Michelle Nevin last out and she brings her back at the same level. Nevin is 28% with first off the claim. Drops back a furlong for this start.
• 6 Pura Vida Zen – leapt up at the start and that is fatal at five and a half. Another Schosberg trainee. 12 for 38 lifetime record says she is a hard trying mare.
• 1a My Tee Time – Jacobson claim looking for two in a row. Jumps this one up and that may be a good sign.

Race 8

• 8 True Romance – Impressive maiden winner at BEL and only missed by 3/4 in the Safely Kept. Franco gets the ride for Timothy Hills.
• 6 Blithely – Faltered at a mile last out but before that had won two in a row at 6 furlongsTalented horse with competitive figures.
• 5 Killaday – coming in off a long layoff for Shettino. Has two starts on the inner both fast. Shettino is 1 for 3 for off the long layoff.

Race 9

• 3 March Too – Drops way down in class for Kenneally and has the best figures. Should be in a good pressing spot and the unstoppable Jose Ortiz gets the ride.
• 4 Island Therapy – 12-1 ML shot had been turfing most of the year and ran into a muddy track first time on the dirt in a while. With improvement he is competitive in this group.
• 8 Ke In Motion – the best speed in the race and competitive figures. Takes the blinkers off today. Esler is 2 of 6 with that move. Is one of one lifetime on the inner.