Race 1.     2-6-5

I’m putting Liberty Fuze on top, but I’m not buying into the 3/5 morning line. She’s winning at near 30% lifetime, and is clearly the speed of the race. She fits the conditions. Da Wildcat Girl looks like the horse with the best chance of pulling the upset. She was taken last out by Richard Stoklosa, a fairly low profile trainer, and she looks to be in top condition. Enduring Touch finally broke through the NW2L condition last out and takes a healthy step up.

Race 2.     3-4-1

Just Afleet has shown good speed in three starts and has the look of a horse that could win with slight improvement. He adds blinkers in the hope that makes the improvement. Third Son stepped up from a sprint to a route off a brief layoff and looked like he was in the right spot. He would be no surprise in the winner’s circle and may be the value play. The coupling of R F Burton and Yummy Bear looks very tough, and the 6/5 ML is really a reflection that they both have a chance to win, but I’m not sure either is superior to the top two.

Race 3.     3-7-1

American Progress was claimed by Linda Rice two back and has run two decent if not outstanding races. The last was better than looked and he tops the field off his last figure. Rapid Rouge is 4/5 on the ML and looks in top condition for RuRod. He fits but at the price doesn’t excite me. Joe Mooch has the speed to get a tactical spot from the rail and has been consistent from a figure standpoint.

Race 4.     1-8-3

I like that Baronet went right to the front from the 12 post and ran gamely around the track. She should get a good spot from the rail and wins with some improvement. Little Bear Cat drops in price after a so-so turn on the inner, but did show some speed last out. Show Giant was four lengths behind Baronet in that maiden $25K, jumped up to $40K and was soundly beaten. She’s back at the lower level today and could be competitive.

Race 5.     2-7-4-8

Ima Wildcat finished a strong second at this level in December, jumped up and was overmatched. Drops back today and projects as the one to catch. Sourcesandmethods seems to be heading toward regular seconditis, but has been popular at the claim box with four claims in the his last five races. Abby Adsit does the saddling today and she is fair first off the claim. Touchdown was taken last out by RuRod and that makes him more attractive. Rich ‘n’ Tuck was taken by Linda Rice last out and is 5/2 on the ML based on back class and the fact that Rice is 25% first off the claim. He’s also been gelded since his last. Could merit his odds, but I may look elsewhere for value.

Race 6.     1-4-5

This looks like the most competitive race of the day.  Swell comes off a win in a $50K SA, and dops into a statebred NW1X. If he runs to his last he’s the likeliest winner. Organic Gemini took a while to break his maiden, but he seems to have taken very well to the inner.  Now that he’s figured it out, he may start stringing them together. Private Thrill is another that seems to have a liking for the inner. He fits the conditions well. If you are looking at the Pick-4, consider throwing in Uncharted Course.

Race 7.     6-2-1

Another tough to predict race. Son of a General either didn’t care for Mike Miceli’s training, or the inner last out, but before that was a winner for $32K. The drop to $25K should be in his favor. Worth a look at the odds. Conspiracy has done well on the inner and has done well with better quality animals. Should be the speed here and will have to be caught. Life’s Reward won last out and was taken by Gregory DiPrima who is a respectable 18% first off the claim. Should be one of the horses near the front.

Race 8.     7-2-1

Flora Dora has done well with graded horses and won the Busanda last out with statebreds. I’d be a little more confident if Marialice Coffy had a better training percentage. Still, this has been a good runner and she’s worth a long look. Katniss the Victor will be trying to win by running as opposed to using a bow and arrow. She’s made two starts, and is a nose away from being 2 for 2. Can’t discount the chances of an improving three year old. Lost Raven has been competitive with these sorts in the past and certainly has chances here.

Race 9.     2-3-5

Bluemoonofsaratoga drops out a MSW where she ran the top last out figure. Silly Face improved on her second start on the inner and looks right behind the top horse. Mlle. Chanteuse ran a much better than looked race first out at a route distance. She drops back to a sprint and at 12-1 ML should could make the day if she pulls the upset.

It looks like a very competitive day, but I’ve isolated a couple of potential longshots. Posting is pre-scratch.

Race 1.     5-6-1

While L X Sunrise has finished in the money 16 times in 24 races, only one of those was a win. Will likely be underlayed in the win pool, but can be used vertically. She’s All Even has a ton of speed and may have things her own way on the front. Dangerous. Barrier to Entry has been running well on the inner and drops to a friendlier level. Gabby’s Brown ran well in her first start for Nevin, comes off a short rest and certainly has chances if she doesn’t get lost on the rail.

Race 2.     2-6-7

I’ve got no great insight here. The low price horses look good. The Great Whiteway is trained by Klesaris who has been hot lately so he gets the nod.

Race 3.     4-3-5

Another race where one of the public choices is likely to win. Awesome News is likely the best of the speed horses and Rachel’s Temper looks the best poised to take advantage if the race breaks down.

Race 4.     6-5-8

Albertrani is not known for success with first timers but he does better once they’ve had a start. Second start and she gets first Lasix. Good Laugh goes for the red hot Linda Rice barn. Firestar is the type of horse I won’t put on top despite the top figures. Backholer for me.

Race 5.     4-1-2

The Broadway is a competitive affair with good speed in Court Dancer and Tricky Zippy along with the hard-trying Willet. I’ll stick with those three although Blithely certainly can be thrown into the mix.

Race 6.     9-8-10-2

Another tough race. I’m going with a couple of price horses. Curious Cal is at the right level and comes off a fairly long layoff for Charlton Baker. His big positive – two wins in three tries on the inner. American Creed is coming off a win and a claim by Michelle Nevin at this level. Two in a row not out of the question. The Big Deluxe is the likely favorite and as such may be overbet, but he’s got plenty of speed and threat to wire the field. Comandante is a good prospect to outrun his odds. Lots of speed and will benefit from the price drop.

Race 7.     5-6-9

Kibble is 10/1 on the ML for Anthony Dutrow who has been a little hard luck at the AQU inner meet, but I like his chances here. JCs American Dream will likely go favorite but looks like he will be doing it from off the pace. Not so much speed in the field that I can feel confident about him running by the leaders in the stretch. Regia Marina took a while to break her maiden but perhaps not that she has it figured out she’ll get two in a row.

Race 8.     8-4-1

The Haynesfield is another competitive stakes. Royal Posse is the odds on ML favorite and should be in a good position. Likely to be underlayed but with good chances. Perhaps Full of Mine is as bad as the ML suggests, but I’m going to use him in the verticals. Saratoga Snacks is coming in off a series of good finishes in statebred stakes and looks solid in this spot. If you’re looking at horizontals, you might want to give some consideration to Good Luck Gus and Eye Luv Lulu.

Race 9.     3-6-7

The final is a pretty open affair. Nick’s Funnybone looks best of the starters. J K’s Girl goes first time for Klesaris and he’s hit with 3 of 5 firsters at the inner meet. Gonna Find Her goes for Michael Dilger who is 21% with second start maidens.

Excellent card at the Big A today and a number of very tough races.

Race 1.    9-7-6

Stella Who showed good speed in a straight maiden last out and returns at the $40K level today. She should be the one to catch. Goldies Luckycharm never got into the last race she ran, but she should have learned some lessons in that race. In this field she’s not as outless as the ML odds suggest. Grace’s Joy has been at the level for a couple of months but her last race showed enough improvement to make her a contender here.

Race 2.    4-5-1-7

City Steel passed a race yesterday for this spot. Trainer Pino moved him up after a claim and brings him back down to the level at which he was taken. If he regains his old condition he’s got big chances. Now We Are Free steps up slightly after a win. Has been in good form  and figures to be coming in the stretch. Hurry Up Alan ran right behind Now We Are Free and could turn the tables this time. Real Estate Rich was obviously at the wrong distance last out and returns to the sprint distance where he won two in a row on the inner.

Race 3.     6-1-4-3

The Franklin Square is competitive stakes for statebred fillies. Frosty Margarita gets the nod off a nose victory when stretched out to a mile-seventy. She hasn’t finished worse than second in seven starts and is proven at the distance and the inner. Clipthcouponannie  has been brought to this race carefully by Pletcher and her figures are a match for the top choice. Will be a stern test today. Wonderment is not without chances today. She comes off a long layoff, but was dominating in her two summer starts at Belmont and her two year old figure was the highest in the field. Could be the value bet.

Race 4.     5-4-1

Feets of Strength had the lead in the stretch last out before folding. Adds blinkers today and he may not get caught this time. Littlebitadominic comes off a three month layoff for Linda Rice and she is a reasonable 20% off the layoff. Just missed in her last and tries a step back to straight maidens today. Will have to run his best to top this field. Brooklyn Major gets first Lasix today. Main difficulty has been getting out of the gate  but if he breaks he’s got a good chance to be a factor at the end.

Race 5.     7-1-3-6

Zambian Dream has been knocking on the door since arriving from Chile. Clearly is at the right level today and while his figures are not the highest in the field I like the running style and potential improvement. Integrity was taken for $40K last out and is moved up today. Should be up toward the front and is a contender off his best. Towering Moon comes off a win in his try with ALW NW1X horses for the hot Rudy Rodriguez. Can’t discount any horse he’s putting on the track. Cerro is a speedster coming off a win at $40K last out and should be setting the fractions. Will need to show some courage in the stretch.

Race 6.     7-9-4

Caderyn is Triple Crown nominated but so far has performed disappointingly. He adds blinkers today in the hope of carrying his speed to the end. Looks strong in this spot. You Had Me At Halo goes first time for Violette. I like the workout pattern and has enough works over the inner to be encouraging. Stevie Q has just one turf race but it was better than looked. He’s been gelded since that race and has been working steadily for the return. Irad takes the ride and Chad Brown is always dangerous with layoff runners.

Race 7.     1-2-7

Perfect Disco stumbled last our but before that beat a $10K field in good time. Should be in a good spot early. Buckleberry Grey ran well in his inner track debut and figures as a major contender. Nevada Kid continues his drop down the class ladder in search of a win. Not without possibilities.

Race 8.     1-7-6-5

Longfor the City has to go from the one post but has shown he can finish at this distance. RuRod doesn’t hurt. Lucky Lotto has shown an affinity for the inner and looks strong off a third place finish in the Jazil. Mills has adapted well to the dirt and should be a stretch factor. Pass the Dice is the other RuRod horse and he gets a jockey upgrade to Irad.

Race 9.     7-6-9

May Be a Diamond is one of a couple that have only been with winners once. Like the figures and the flexible running style. Dannie’s Deceiver is the other looking for a first win with winners. He showed good speed at the mile and is back today at the sprint distance. Major contender for the win. Possilicious rarely runs a bad one and should be a factor early. Second off a layoff and should improve.

Race 10.   4-2-6

Tough closing race. I’m going with first timer Croke Park. Like the workout pattern and Irad takes the mount for the competent Michael Maker. Could be a nice price. Fleeting Gold jumps up from the MCL ranks and gets first Lasix. Better than looked last race puts him in the mix. Gaming should be be the favorite, and he has some nice races, but in his sixth start I’m inclined to be skeptical about the win.

Race 1      6-2-4

Race 2      5-2-4

Race 3      6-2-3

Race 4      3-5-1

Race 5      8-3-1

Race 6      2-9-8

Race 7      4-7-10

Race 8      6-5-3

Race 9      2-8-10

Race 1      3-8-4

Race 2      9-3-1

Race 3      5-2-3

Race 4      8-5-1

Race 5      6-9-8

Race 6      2-10-9

Race 7      10-8-4-2

Race 8      2-6-10

Race 9      8-2-5-10

Race 10   8-9-11

Race 1      6-5-1

Race 2      9-8-1

Race 3      7-2-4

Race 4      7-2-5

Race 5      3-13-2-5

Race 6      7-2-6-4

Race 7      8-1-10-3

Race 8      3-9-10-4

Race 9      10-4-6-2

Race 10      9-8-2-1

Very tough day. The late P4 sequence has 50 horses entered, and the races are competitive.

Race 1      2-4-3

Storm Cell broke well back first time but may have things his own way today.

Race 2      3-2-1

Race 3      4-6-1

Perhaps Stroke Play doesn’t have a good chance at winning, but the other four all have legitimate shots. Mei Ling and Wonder Gal should both be competing up front and both have matriculated with better. Sustainable may be the value horse. Saythreehailmary’s has to be given consideration on a Sunday.

Race 4      3-6-1

It looks like the have and have nots in this race. Despite not beating a stellar field last out, Uncle Duncan looks like the lone speed and should be tough here.

Race 5      5-1-4-7

Cards of Stone smashed a state-bred maiden field first time out in a good time. He should be the front speed. Charming Indy did well at this level last out and should be rolling again.

Race 6      2-5-10

A little bit of speculation here. Flatterywillgetyou is the best of the horses that have started. Votre Coeur is the Chad Brown entrant and he is always dangerous with firsters. I love the six furlong breeding on Chocolate Smoothie. She also has the workout pattern I like.

Race 7      7-4-9

Lots of possible winners here. American Progress goes first time for Linda Rice and she has been hot at this meet and she’s one of the potential overlays. Gentrify lost to a good field last out and drops to his lowest level. Wild target is 4 for 4 in the money on the inner and goes first time for Canizzo. If you’re going deep in the P4, Star of New York, Songa, Visionary Ruler and Wild Target are all possible.

Race 8      1-6-4

Another race with multiple possibilities. Jack O Liam is the obvious front runner, although the race has plenty of speed. I’m intrigued by the 10-1 ML. Special Ops is another 10-1 shot that looks pretty good. Notice his start on the inner this spring resulted in a convincing win. Clement is 25% off the long layoff. Wild Zambezi, Lunar Rover, Sioux, and Drama King would not be a surprise.

Race 9      4-8-3

Race 1      1-2-5

Race 2      2-6-1

Race 3      5-4-6

Race 4      8-5-10

Race 5      2-5-3-4

race 6      5-3-10-1

Race 7      10-9-11-8

Race 8      4-6-2-9

Race 9      2-7-10

Race 1      1-5-3

Race 2      2-6-3

Race 3      6-2-3

Race 4      4-7-6

Race 5      2-7-4

Race 6      2-4-9-7

Race 7      8-3-1-6

Race 8      1-6-11

Race 9      3-9-2-1

Race 1      3-2-4

Race 2      3-4-2-7

Race 3      5-4-2

Race 4      6-5-1

Race 5      5-6-9

Race 6      3-4-9-8

Race 7      9-4-8-7

Race 8      4-3-2

Race 9       9-1-4-5