I’m on a research trip so no Belmont picks on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week. Back on Saturday. Good luck to everyone playing.

Race 1.  Match Up is not 7/5 as far as I am concerned, but being claimed by Danny Gargan is a positive. Best figures but not by much. Switch to Castellano is a positive. Chubby Master was claimed last out by DJ and returns at the same level. Figures tab him as a contender. I’mbetterthangood was dynamite earlier in the year but seems to have cooled off a bit based on his SAR races. However, he cuts back to the mile and gets a positive switch to Franco. Primary 7-5-2  Secondary (4)

Race 2.  Bright Side Up has good speed and gets blinkers today. Figures say he is competitive and the cutback in distance can’t hurt. Princessofthieves looks for her maiden win in her 10th start. She’s been close in a number of her races and should be in a good position at the top of the stretch. Quanique missed breaking her maiden by a nose last out and was claimed by Brad Cox who is 24% first off the claim. Has run well at BEL.  Primary 4-5-7  Secondary (8)

Race 3.  Pawley’s Express broke her maiden impressively at BEL and came right back at today’s level and missed by a length. Looks good today. Ring Knocker was claimed last out by David Cannizzo and is moving up today. Last race number says he fits in this group. Primary 5-2  Secondary (1, 4, 6)

Race 4.  Strong has to overcome the outside post but he’s been competitive with better recently. Second last race gives him the top figure. Montauk Man switched trainers since his last and makes a drop looking for a win. Last two races were troubled and with a clean break and trip he’s in the mix. Geo Niko jumps up off a win on the dirt. He seems a little more viable on the turf. Primary 12-6-11  Secondary (2, 9)

Race 5.  Electrified has three strong races coming into this one and sticks out in this field. Bea Bea ran decently when dropped to this level last out. Should improve in this field. Congarees Key drops out of MSW to the claiming level. Needs to get out of the gate to be a factor today.  Primary 6-11-4  Secondary (14)

Race 6.  Fear No Evil has the speed to play catch me if you can and gets first Lasix today. 10-1 ML is way off in my opinion. In It For the Gold makes her third start for RuRod today. She ran two good races in her first two and owns the top last race figure. Yorkiepoo Princess ran well in her first start at SAR and adds blinkers today. Better post to run from today. Primary 2-3-6  Secondary (10)

Race 7.  Hey Jabber Jaw has run well at FL and looks to transfer his form to BEL. Plenty of speed and the top figures. Los Borrachos has had trouble getting to the winners circle but is in the money in half his starts. Steve’s Image has been competitive in his last two and adds shades today.  Primary 4-1A-5 (2, 3)

Race 8.  Quinta Verde comes off a long layoff but with Chad Brown in her corner she should be ready to run. She’s Group 3 placed in Europe and won her stateside debut at KEE. Mighty Souper has two thirds in her two 2016 races and has the top figure. Havana Moon has had some trouble finding the winners circle, but has been reliably in the money in her career. Primary 7-4-6  Secondary (1, 5)

Race 9.  Wide open race. Run With Bulls won his last, moved barns and jumps up slightly in price. Blame Jim goes second off the claim for RuRod. Has been with better in the recent past and if he runs to his best he’s a contender. Frazil has a great record at BEL and fits well with this group.  Primary 2-8-4  Secondary (5, 10)

Race 1.  While Midnight Hawk has strong figures, I tend to want to give the West Coast horses that DJ has picked up a look to see how they adapt to Big Sandy. I’m looking at Lucky Lotto who is three of three in the money at BEL and has been dropping down the price ladder looking for a win. He showed well in his last and the final drop could be enough for him to get the win. Primary 4-5-1  Secondary (6)

Race 2.  Foglio was off slow in his debut but closed very well to miss by a length. Have to make him the choice, but there are a lot of unknowns here. First timers Heaven is Waiting goes for Chad Brown who is very strong first on the turf. Arch of the Diver goes second time for Albertan and he is stronger second time out. Primary 1-2-5  Secondary (7)

Race 3. Dad’z Laugh makes it three in a row where the favorite looks toughest. Chelios steps up a bit coming off a nice win for Chris Engelhart. Storm Pursuit has a lot of speed and I like his chances to be a part here. Primary 2-5-7  Secondary (3, 4)

Race 4.  Ascend hasn’t run a bad race in a year and is still in good form. Almanaar goes first time in NA for Chad Brown who is a solid 26% with Euro shippers. Infinite Wisdom ran decently in the Oceanport but is 2 for 2 racing at BEL. Primary 1-3-5  Secondary (2, 4, 7)

Race 5.  Avail Ekati was a half million dollar purchase off a $15K stud fee. I like the workout pattern. Hammerin Aamer never had a chance last out and adds blinkers today. Dupree also had a troubled start but still gave a good effort last out.  Primary 6-8-3  Secondary (1)

Race 6.  Crowd Funding showed a different dimension last out and appears to have rounded into top shape. At 10-1 ML he’s worth a look. Stormin Stephen has done well at the distance and at BEL and should be close up early. Timbar ships over from MTH where he ran a sharp sprint. Step up in price should be no issue. Primary 2-1-9  Secondary (4)

Race 7.  Lead By Example broke his maiden at BEL in July, jumped up to this level and ran well despite steadying in the lane. Rider switch to Jose Ortiz doesn’t hurt. The J Y should be setting the fractions and has the talent to be a factor with these. At 15-1 he holds some interest. Prophet’s Cat has been knocking around at this level for ages. Not likely a winner but good prospects in the verticals.  Primary 8-4-1  Secondary (5)

Race 8.  Jet Black has done well since breaking his maiden at BEL. He was ambitiously placed in the Albany, showed some speed but couldn’t sustain a run with the runners at that level. Seems better suited for the middle distances. The jet exacta could very well be Get Jets who comes off a long layoff for Tony Durrow. He won first time out so he’s show he can fire off the rest. Positive workout patter and Castellano in the saddle is a plus. Testosterstone has run well at BEL previously and is having a good 2016. He’s got outs at 12-1.  Primary  2-9-1  Secondary (10)

Race 9. I had a hard time eliminating any horse from the race. Elysea’s World ran a nice second in the Lake George and lost all chance in the Lake Placid when she stumbled badly at the start. With a clean trip I like her chances. Diamond Fields ran well to be second in the Lake Placid and seems to be on the improve. Galileo’s Song was coming well in a G3 at MTH and hasn’t run a bad race lifetime. She has two wins in three tries at BEL.  Primary 6-2-1  Secondary (3, 4, 5, 7)

Race 10.  Bushmill Giant came close to breaking his maiden in July at BEL and seems to be working well after the freshening. Dot Matrix threw in a clunker on a race taken off the turf but prior to that had been running close up in turf races at today’s distance. Leaveematthegate is another who didn’t thrive on the dirt but looks better on the turf. Switch back to Ortiz is a positive. Primary 7-4-5  Secondary (6)

Race 1.  Redneck Gold starts as the ML favorite, but I’m not quite as taken with her as the linemaker was. I’m more inclined to look at Stella Who. She broke her maiden at AQU and jumped up to an OC $50K next out, laid off for three months, came back on the turf and lost her jockey out of the gate. This is her lowest price by far, and her figures say she is competitive. (Note: in the event of a scratch, Prove It All Night should still be considered.) Spun Cooper showed some speed at SAR after shipping from Maryland. She was grabbed out of that race by Abby Adsit who is ok first off the claim. She was consistent in Maryland and came close to her top number at the Spa.  Primary 1A-2-5  Secondary (6)

Race 2.  Hidden Vow stays at the $25K level after running a decent race at SAR last out. Positive jockey switch to Irad Ortiz. Powerful Impact makes a significant drop from OC$40K to this level. Winning rider Jose Ortiz gets back aboard for this trip. Mobridge has a good record on the BEL turf and has competitive figures. Primary 1A-4-6 Secondary (3)

Race 3.  Nothing tricky here. I took Clear the Mine over Juan and Bina mainly because of the 1 for 20 record on the part of the latter. Vulcan’s Forge ran well in an off the turf affair last out and I like that Fletcher gives him another shot on the dirt today. Primary 4-2-6  Secondary (5)

Race 4.  A number of legitimate contenders here. Ross Boss showed a lot of speed in a MSW in January at AQU and switches trainers to Peter Pugh. The drop in price should allow him to carry his speed farther. He gets first Lasix for this run. Massena was grabbed last out by John Toscano and takes a slight drop for this run. The two races at BEL gave him very competitive figures. Buckwellspent gets a good switch to Jose Ortiz and really upped his game with a couple of seconds at SAR. Primary 4-5-1  Secondary (6, 7, 9)

Race 5.  This looks like it could be an all race if you’re looking at the horizontals. Mewannarose ran well at SAR and has a win at BEL. Takes a big tumble in price, which with DJ is not a negative move. Royal Saint was claimed last out by Mike Miceli. The horse has a win and a second in two starts at BEL. Saratoga Wildcat comes off a win at SAR (naturally) and was claimed by Danny Gargan. Gargan is still a high percentage trainer first off the claim.  Primary 1-3-5  Secondary  (4)

Race 6. Always a chance for something strange in a two year old maiden race. Harlan’s Hunch ran a good race at BEL before finishing out of the money at SAR. Top figure in this race. Forge goes for Chad Brown who does very well dirt to turf. Should be the one to catch here. Toshiro gets fist Lasix after just missing in a 5.5F race on the SAR turf. Another one that should be close up early. Primary 1-8-11  Secondary (2, 6)

Race 7.  Ametrine takes a big tumble in price today and gets a nice switch to Johnny V. Figures suggest she should be best in this race. Ortiga has run well but has struggled to get back to the winners circle. Off her best race she’s a danger. It’s Two Hot Benny could be the speed here and may be hard to catch.  Primary 3-7-5  Secondary (4, 6)

Race 8.  Green Mask comes off a close second in a G2 and another close second in the Troy at Sar. Figures say 3/5 odds might be warranted. Dowse’s Beach has a good record at BEL and seems to be finally putting it all together. Life in Shambles is riding a three race win streak and while his best figures are on the dirt, he’s shown an ability to negotiate the turf. Primary 1-2-6

Race 9.  Smart Alex almost made her turf debut a winning one and winds up with the best last race figure. Queenofthechannel takes the blinkers off today. She was competitive against better before dropping to this level. Diamonds for Leah almost won an MSW, dropped to $75K and didn’t do much, and takes another drop to $40K today. Off her best she’s definitely competitive.  Primary 7-11-10  Secondary (3, 12)

Picks are for a fast dirt and a firm turf. The first three races feature fairly short fields and favorites that stick out.

Race 1. Familyofroses has had good success at BEL and seems to run better figures on the BEL dirt. The Danny Gargan entry both look good, with Majestic Jessica probably stronger than Champagne Ruby. Moondance Joy has had good success on the dirt, including a win in four tries at BEL.  Primary 2-1-4  Secondary (5)

Race 2.  One More Round ships in from the West Coast for A C Avila. He looks best although I don’t know if he deserves 3/5. Proud Zip takes a price drop today and has competitive figures. Dunk a Din drops out of MSW down to this level today and should be competitive if he runs back to his CD races. Primary 4-6-3 

Race 3.  Roca Rojo will be an even bigger favorite than the previous race favorite. She came from Ireland to win a 7F race at BEL and disappointed at SAR, but off her best does look like a single. Primary 5  Secondary (2, 4)

Race 4.  Lots of first time starters in this MCL sprint. Rosa Dorata and Preziosa  go first time for RuRod and he is strong with two year olds. Tainted has a few starts and finally drops out of MSW and into the claiming ranks. That should help her to be more competitive. Twofreeknights didn’t care for the sloppy SAR dirt. She didn’t break well, and never really got into the race. She adds blinkers today.  Primary 1-8-6  Secondary (4)

Race 5.  Dream Man has had good success at the distance and on the BEL turf. Figures are very reliable. Tuscan Getaway has been off since March. He has a lot seconds and thirds compared to wins, but does have the talent to be a contender here. Dendrite is another with trouble getting to the winner’s circle but has prospects to be part of the verticals.  Primary 8-5-4  Secondary (1, 2, 6)

Race 6.  Madison Blues comes off a maiden win at $40K and comes back at the right level in her first with winners. Magnesia Big Girl takes a small drop looking for her second win. She always seems to give an honest effort. Sauvignon makes a drop from a $50K starter allowance into this lower level claimer. Should be in a good striking position in the stretch drive.  Primary 3-10-6 Secondary (8)

Race 7.  Fulmer came off a two year layoff to run a decent race at BEL and an improved race in his second start at SAR. This is the third off the layoff and should be the top effort. Prophet’s Cat has had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle but has been running competitively at this level. Ordinaire looks to be the speed in this race and has run good figures in his last two.  Primary 9-11-1  Secondary (4, 6, 8, 10)

Race 8.  Lady Kreesa has been running well lately and she is back on her favorite track. Could be good value at post time. Welcoming comes out of a series of minor stakes where she didn’t embarrass herself. Koala Queen ships in from Maryland where she hasn’t run a bad race lifetime. Despite the apparent rise in price, she has the figures to be competitive with this group. Primary 2-7-8-12  Secondary (4, 10, 11)

Race 9. Tough closer today. Wake Up Smiling is 5 of 6 in the money and has the best lifetime figure. One of the entry of Rock Ave. Road and Town Fair is not going to go. Of the two I think the latter is the strongest part of the entry. Dorothy’s Dream had a little trouble at the gate last out but still ran evenly. Should improve with a clean trip.  Primary 6-1-9  Secondary (3, 4, 7)

Race 1.  Natalie Victoria runs well at BEL and is dropping in price for this run. You can excuse her last race because of the poor start, but prior to that she was in great shape. Langfirst just won in a NW3 for $15K and moves to open company for a slightly lower price. She’s run lately on the turn but has a win on the BEL dirt. Silver Stance is 5 of 8 at the distance and comes off a good run at SAR.  Primary 5-3-1

Race 2.  Nothing tricky here. Barbie Stones will have to close to win the race but she’s got the top figures and looked good coming off nearly a year layoff. Brooklyn Gal showed some speed last out and looks to be on the improve. Show River had a troubled start last out but still managed to get into the race. Much tougher if he gets out of the gate. Primary 5-7-8

Race 3. Another race where the ML favorites will be tough. Hot Dudette and Ducasa have the top figures and the top front running ability. Primary 1-2-5  Secondary (4)

Race 4.  A couple of Euro shippers look tough in here. Chicadoro ships in and gets the services of Christophe Clement as trainer. He flopped in a Grade 2 but prior to that was competitive. Texting broke his maiden at BEL and returned with a nice race against NW1X horses. Earring was and Aidan O’Brien horse that comes here after just missing in a G2 at the Curragh. No surprise if he comes home on top. Primary 6-2-5  Secondary (3)

Race 5.  ML favorite Imflatoutsweet takes a serious tumble down the price ladder today and that may be enough to propel her to the win. However, she doesn’t look like 8-5 to me so look for value. Ellenvellyn broke her maiden at BEL and ran well in her return in a $40K race at SAR. Rio Vista is another that has success at BEL Should be near the front early and could old on. Primary 1-6-7  Secondary (8)

Race 6.  Another race where the favorites are the likeliest winners. J. J. Jake and James Lane look best. Altesino has a nice workout pattern and picks up Jose Ortiz.  Primary 7-8  Secondary (1, 4, 6)

Race 7. Sunset Knoll was claimed last out by Danny Gargan. In that race the horse sprinted out to a long early lead but didn’t fade that badly in the stretch. Should try the same front running strategy today and if rated correctly should be tougher to catch. Voila La Victoire takes a price drop today in search of a win. She runs consistent figures and the last time she won it was at this price. Saratoga Smoke drops from state-bred allowances to this claimer. Switch to Jose Ortiz should help today.  Primary 9-8-5  Secondary (1, 4)

Race 8.  Buffalo Miss has run well at BEL and had a smashing win in a maiden claimer at SAR. Should be the one to catch. Barrier to Entry comes out of an open $40K claimer where she ran well. She’s moved to the Linda Rice barn since then and she is 29% with new charges. I Hope You Dance is the other Linda Rice horse and ran her best race when switched to the turf. Primary 1-6-7  Secondary (2, 3)

Race 9.  Just the Zip goes second off the claim for Gary Contessa. He was steadied at the start last out but still stayed in the race the whole way. In his previous race at BEL he ran a big figure. Much better than his 12-1 ML odds. Virga drops out of MSW into this MCL spot. He’s got a good second at BEL and two good figures in his last two. Tracking Stock comes off a good second at this price at SAR. Has a second and two thirds in three starts at BEL.  Primary 2-5-1  Secondary (12)

Race 1.  No real insight for me in this one. Leitrim is the speed in here and was claimed by Abby Adsit last out. She is decent 1st off the claim. Toohottoevenspeak was coming in the stretch last race and may appreciate the extra furlong. Saratoga Sight was finally dropped back to the level at which he was claimed, and promptly neglected to catch the break last out. With a better break he has a chance, although a 0 for 35 jockey has to give some pause. Primary 7-6-2  Secondary (3)

Race 2.  Another race that looks formful. Hemsworth was off very slowly in the last race but still managed to pass horses. Albertrani is not known for his success with first timers but does better once his horses have had a race. Baseline is the other Albertrani runner and should be the one to catch. Adulation ran well in the same race as Baseline and makes sense here today.  Primary 1-5-6  Secondary (2)

Race 3.  Very competitive race. I think you can make a case for most of the horses in here. Banner Bill will get bet here but ran well in his second off a layoff at SAR. He was claimed out of that one by Cannizzo, and off his best he’s competitive in this field. A.P. Cino has been reliable in his career, finishing in the money in half his starts. He was claimed last out by Michelle Nevin and she is a good 21% 1st off the claim. Derby Glass has had a good 2016 and has been running consistent numbers. Primary 5-2-4  Secondary (1, 3, 6)

Race 4.  Two year old maiden state bred fillies on the dirt. Amapola has two fast races, including an impressive win in her maiden start at GP where she won by 10 only to be DQ’d back to 6th. Accepting seems primed by Jerkens and picks up Johnny V for the race. Jamison ‘n Ginger ran well at SAR and could be in a good striking position in the stretch.  Primary 5-7-2 Secondary (8, 9, 12)

Race 5. Another race where I have no insight. Conquest Enforcer, Too Discreet, and Front Pocket Money look strongest in here. Primary 6-5-3

Race 6.  Another two year old maiden fillies race, this one at a mile on the turf. I’m not sure why Via Frattina is 15-1 on the ML, but here maiden race was better than looked after being steadied at the start.  I’d be surprised to see her at those odds come post time. Cost Bella is the Chad Brown entrant and he is exceptional with maiden turf fillies. Castellans rides at around 30% for Brown. Compelled had a nice sprint start at SAR and is well bred for today’s distance. Primary 5-10-8  Secondary (1, 9)

Race 7.  The entry of Adulator and Securitiz  looks strong in here. Either one is a threat to win. Doyouknowsomething has been competitive at this price and has done well enough to run in a couple of graded events this year. The jockey switch to Castellano should be a positive. Transparent and Storming Monarcho both have outs in this race. It’s unlikely both will go, but I’ll stick with whichever one DJ leaves in. Primary 1-6-2

Race 8.  This ALW NW1X is full of contenders, some at nice prices. Artie Crasher had been off nine months but came out and ran a decent race. He had a troubled start in that one, but still ran evenly. Clearly he needed the start and should improve today. Performance Bonus is the heavy ML favorite, but his figures are not any better than the top choice. The Brown/Castellano combo pretty much ensures he will be overbet. One Sided goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He doesn’t have a turf start but has the best lifetime numbers. Primary 2-3-10  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 10.  Danny’s Rush makes his third start for Mott. In his last start he clipped heels early, losing his best chance. Still he kept on and with a clean trip he should be more competitive. Moving toward the inside from the far outside has to help. Shiraz was another breaking from the outside and improves post slightly today. Horoscope showed speed in an off the turf affair and should be the one to catch today. Primary 4-7-8  Secondary (1, 9, 10)

Race 1. For a short field I thought there were a lot of contenders, and then I went and made the favorites the top two. Grey Glory won won convincingly last out at SAR, drops slightly in price but steps up to the next condition. Top last race figure. Boomerang Toy came to SAR and ran two strong races, winning on a day that favored speed but doing it with energy to spare. To the Victor has a lot of starts but drops to a more benign level today. Fairly consistent figures. Primary 3-5-4  Secondary (2, 6)

Race 2.  Another race with a lot of contenders. Tambourin was claimed last out by Danny Gargan and he is 23% first of the claim. The horse didn’t really get out last time but if he can replicate his first effort in America he could be the winner. Special Ops just missed at SAR and drops in price today. Good set of figures for this run. Smokey Brown is better than his 12-1 ML odds might indicate. He’s been consistent and has been competitive at BEL.  Primary  5-6-1A  Secondary (3, 4, 7)

Race 3.  The 1 and 2 look very good in here. Comfort ran a strong second to Frosted in the Whitney. Touchofstarquality has run well in restricted stakes and has figures nearly that of the top choice.  Primary 1-2  Secondary (3, 4, 5)

Race 4.  Adirondack Dancer has a good record on the BEL turf, although I’d like to see more wins and fewer seconds. Has good tactical speed and the top last race figure. Wicked Freud steps up to a route but last time Should have no problem with the stretch-out. Sanctify passed on a spot Friday for this one. Mott is generally known as a trainer who likes to race his horses into Primary  2-1A-3  Secondary  (4, 5)

Race 5.  Nothing special to look at here. Divine Interventio, Afleet Martini and Made of Steel look best and will be bet by the crowd. Primary 3-6-7

Race 6.  Another race where the favorites look best. Moonlit Garden, Berned and Blind Pool get the nod for me.

Race 7.  Ticonderoga looks best, but will likely be a heavy favorite.  Ultron had a troubled start last out, pressed the pace and faded. Still, that was a nice improvement over his first start. Kiss the Toad improved substantially when moved to a turf route. Could give the top choice a real run for the top money. Primary 6-2-9  Secondary (1, 3)

Race 8.  Startwithsilver hasn’t run a bad race in her lifetime. She didn’t break sharply in either of her SAR races but she has a win at the distance and on the BEL turf. Dangerous at her best. My Kinda Gal is another that likes BEL and the distance. Consistent figures lately.  Uncle Southern looked strong in his return to the turf and has shown well in his prior BEL efforts. Primary 6-9-3  Secondary (1, 2, 4)

Race 9. I liked Araqeel in his SAR start when he was trained by Chad Brown. He was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen but he still has the top figures in the field. Inventor’s Gate ran a good race last out at SAR. Low key connections suggest a good price may be in the offing. Ross J Dawg has only been worse than 4th once lifetime and picks up Castellano for the ride today. Data Driven is the Chad Brown entrant and may wind up going favorite. The numbers look a little lighter than the top choices here, but he wouldn’t be a surprise. Primary 5-9-4-2

Race 10.Wide open closing race. I’m looking at Louisiana Lady at 10-1 ML. Leo O’Brien isn’t the same dominant trainer of NY beds he once was, but he still has some talent. The horse had to go out fast from the inside post last time but is in a much better spot today. Unspoken Mission had all kinds of trouble last out but still only missed by 3 lengths. Very much a contender with a clean trip. Discreet Image could have been looking for a race with winners but was barely caught last out. No reason to expect a lesser effort today. Primary 6-7-9  Secondary (4, 10, 12)

Opening day of the fall Belmont meeting. Not a great card but I have a few longshot prospects.

Race 1.  While Chomsky may get a lot of action he has had 16 starts and mostly seconds and thirds. I’m going to give him a lesser chance in this race. Play Big drops out of MSW into the claiming ranks. He came off a seven month layoff and showed good speed in his return at SAR. Glennevan jumped up slightly last out but returns to this level today. He has primarily been routing but I like his chances on the distance cutback. DJ seems to have Tree Top Lover moving in the right direction and he has the figures to be a factor today.  Primary 6-1-7  Secondary (2)

Race 2.  Not a tricky race for me. Neoclassic and Winter Springs are likely to go favorite and are the first two choices. East Bay Lodge is the one that interests me a little. He has some negatives – 13 starts at BEL without cracking the top three – but I like his potential at today’s distance. Not a horse to go crazy on, but might be worth a couple of bucks. Primary 7-8-9-2

Race 3.  With the scratch of Juba this race looks like a two horse affair between Ocean Knight and Protonic.  Primary 1-3  Secondary (5)

Race 4.  Another race where it looks like the horses that will be bet look best. Mission Leader goes first time for Kieran McLaughlin. I like price they paid and I think the workout pattern looks positive. Mission Command looked strong in his SAR race and looks like the one to beat. Dab had a good effort in his maiden race.  Primary 2-6-3  Secondary (5)

Race 5. Decent came of a five month layoff to just miss at SAR. Consistent figures and should improve today. Dr. Dorr came to SAR for Bob Baffert and ran a good one. I like that he stays in NY for a comeback. Lord of Love has a lot of starts but has good prospects in the verticals.  Primary 9-1-2  Secondary (3, 6)

Race 6. Not a lot of insight here. Mighty Moses, Basic Hero and Market Sentiment. Primary 4-2-3  Secondary (5, 7)

Race 7. This is a very competitive race.  Manoffire had been off 10 moths when he returned at SAR. He ran well in that race and should improve today. Low-key connections are a concern, but the odds will be right. Whiskey Seven is two for two in his short career and picks up Javier Castellano for the ride. Banana Thief has been running steady figures and has run well of the short layoff.  Primary 2-9-5  Secondary (1, 4, 5, 8)

Race 8.  Most Beautiful makes her stateside debut. Overseas she was a G3 winner and is competitive on figures. Ava’s Kitten is 2 of 3 on the BEL turf and goes for the hot Chad Brown. Sky My Sky ran well in the Lake George and has competitive figures. Primary 1-5-6  Secondary (3, 7, 10)

Race 9. Competitive finale. I’m swinging for the fences with Catapult Jack and Schout Bay get the primary nod, while the likely crowd favorites, Kopper Wired and Heavenly Sun are contenders. Primary 2-10-4-5  Secondary (12)

Last day of a profitable SAR meeting for me. The first two weeks of the meeting were slim, but starting the third week I went on a nice run of good priced winners, Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s, and some fat exactas. I’m thinking about how much I’ll be posting selections for Belmont. I’m behind on my new book, the working title of which is., Why do I Lose, and I need to start posting more blogs. So we’ll see what happens leading up to the Breeder’s Cup, but I’ll be active with picks at least part of the time through the BC.

Race 1.   Lot of races where the favorites look good and the price horses don’t. This is one of them. Not a great amount of analysis. Instant Replay, Skill Not Luck, and Don’t Point.  Primary 4-3-2

Race 2. Kangaroo Style is a multi-start maiden that has been given some time off by Michelle Nevin. He’s been working steadily for a month and at his best certainly has competitive numbers. Dancer’s Edge ran a good one in an off the turf affair three weeks ago and looks better meant for the turf. Worth a look at the odds. There Goes Ben runs for RuRod, and while he’s a 10-start maiden, he’s got some positives, including RuRod’s 19% number off the layoffs. Primary 4-9-6  Secondary (1, 2, 3, 5)

Race 3. Once again the favorites look best to me, but there are a few extra contenders. Request, Ectot, and Street Fashion.  Primary 1-6-3  Secondary  (4, 5)

Race 4.  This race is wide open but I went with the Pletcher/Velasquez runner Commandeering. Lenstar has a race where he showed speed and no reason to expect he’ll try a new strategy today. Moves Like Ali sold for 25 times his stud fee and Jeremiah Englehart is not too bad with first time starters. Primary 1-9-6

Race 5.  Another race where the favorites seem to look best. Primary 1-4-7  Secondary (4)

Race 6.  Another race where I have no real insight into the longer priced horses. Primary 2-6-3

Race 7.  Seems like the races are either obvious or have a ton of contenders. Par goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He’s coming off a good second at a slightly longer distance and has enough speed to stay near the pace and close late. Know Your Customer has to overcome the far outside post but he showed good speed in winning his last start and has first rate connections. Liberal Spin has competitive figures if you put a line through his last. Primary 8-12-4  Secondary (1, 2,4)

Race 8.  Not a lot of prior form to go on. I’m gong with Bid List who gets top rider Jose Ortiz and comes in with a steady series of drills for Asmussen who is 19% with 1st timers. Mint Condition has some nice works in his pattern, including her last that indicates he should be competitive early. Krazy Kathy goes for RuRod and Irad gets up. Could be up against it out of the one, but at 12-1 she has my interest.  Primary 3-4-1  Secondary (5, 8, 9)

Race 9.  Both halves of the 1 entry, Ocean Knight and Iron Fist, look live in here, so they get the nod. All Star Red had a little trouble getting into the last race but his figure off the Vanderbilt is still one of the better in the race. Seems to have a great liking for the distance. J S Bach has been gelded since his last and I always give a little extra credit for that equipment change. His numbers from the OC$80K races put him in the mix.  Primary 1-10-4  Secondary (8, 9)

Race 10.  Gotachancetodance has done well both at the distance and at Saratoga, although he ran longer distances at the end of last year. She’ll have to be at her best considering she’s making her debut against some decent runners. Mexican Gold ships over from France where he was in the stable of top trainer Andre Fabre. He doesn’t lose anything in the switch to Chad Brown who is 24% with Euro shippers. Kitzy’s Rocket is 2 of 3 at SAR and her top number is competitive with any of these.  Primary 6-3-9  Secondary (1, 2, 7)

Race 11.  The favorites look strong here, but there are some horses that could surprise. Off the Tracks ran big in the Test to Paola Queen and should be the one to catch here. Appealing Maggie is a good young sprinter and moves up to graded company today. I like improving three year olds and at 6-1 she looks like she might be the value. Coppa has been lightly raced but her figures suggest she is in the mix today.  Primary 7-5-6  Secondary (1, 9, 10)

Race 12.  Not a lot of info in the PPs of the horses here, so you may have to go deep in the horizontals. My Fair Lilly, Salty Mo, and Fired Up Sensation are the ones I’ve settled on. Primary 1-2-5  Secondary (4, 6, 10)