Happy Independence Day to everyone. Great card at BEL with some first rate stakes. Picks are before scratches so some adjustments might be necessary.

Race 1      3-4-6

Another Pletcher/Velasquez two year old debut horse. No need to say more. Paynes Prairie finished second in the Tremont last out. He’ll likely be close to odds on here. Abbot had a nice three furlong work a week ago and could be ready to run.

Race 2      6-3-1

Elraay looked strong breaking his maiden and every reason to expect hi to run well with this group. Meshell has looked good in his two starts with winners and is competitive here. Predicate has a tendency to finish in the money instead of win but looks solid in the verticals.

Race 3      2-8-6

Rock Eagle looks to try a softer NW1X group instead of the stakes runners last out. Much more realistically placed. Bigger Picture did well against a few of these last out and has three wins to his credit. Chances at some odds. English Minister has been close his last three starts, although he is more likely in the money than the win slot.

Race 4      1-5-4

Wealth to Me was overmatched in the Brooklyn but fits this field well. Recent figures very consistent. Matrooh is two for three under Chad Brown’s tutelege and looks to be improving with each start. Samraat was running with top three year olds last year. Only question is whether the connections want him all out today or if they are looking for future runs.

Race 5     8-6-4

Depeche Chat is riding a two race win streak, the last at this level. Veteran loves to win and is as fast as any horse in the race. Barrel of Love is coming off a win against state-breds. Diane Balsamo has good percentages going sprint to route and first off the claim, and the 12-1 odds make him worth a look. Thomas Hill is another longshot with outs.

Race 6      6-1-5

Miss Ella won the Grade 2 Beaumont and ran well early in the Grade 1 Acorn. Young runner getting more experience and is probably better suited to the distance cutback. Promise Me Silver another that looks more like a sprinter. Prior to the Acorn was on an eight race win streak, including seven stakes. Irish Jasper just won a G3 at PIM. Steps up a bit today, but loves to win.

Race 7      4-1-7

Texas Red returns to the races in a G1 affair. He’s the ace closer in a race with plenty of pace. If he’s right he’ll be tough to keep out. Blofeld is the Pletcher/Velasquez entry and he has two G2 wins to his credit. Smart Transition doesn’t have the resume of some in here but I think his last was better than looked. Worth considering at the odds.

Race 8     2-8-7

Bolo has been far better on the turf than on the dirt and has a field dominating figure. Startup Nation ran well in the Penine Ridge and should improve off that effort. Worth a look at the mid-range odds. Postulation goes for top Euro trainer Dermont Weld and regular rider P J Smullen. Was recently gelded. I like that Weld made the trip with this horse.

Race 9      6-5-2

Tonalist was a surprise loser to Honor Code in the Metropolitan, but should be in better shape in the Suburban. Hard to pick against. Effinex ran a clunker in the Brooklyn, but was a winner in the G3 Excelsior. Maybe a little ambitiously placed, but his figures say he can run with this bunch. Coach Inge was a winner in the Brooklyn by essentially going wire to wire. Not much speed signed on so may be in the cat bird seat in the stretch.

Race 10   2-6-10-7

Lady Eli is the best three year old filly turf horse running and no reason to pick against her here. Spanish Queen is coming out of the American Oaks at SA and on figures could be the one to make it difficult on Lady Eli. Outstanding invades from Ireland and looks like the talent of the Euro invaders. Main concern is the distance. Consumer Credit is listed at 12-1 on the ML after finishing a length and a half behind 7/2 Spanish Queen. Odds say must consider.

Race 11   3-2-4-6

The Belmont Sprint closes out the July 4  card. Private Zone is more suited for the seven furlong distance. He’s got the speed and the figures and has done well on the BEL dirt. The Big Beast is a legitimate graded sprinter and will get a better trip than he got in the Carter. Greem Gratto is completely mis-evaluated at 15-1 ML. He’s speedy and likes the distance. Can’t discount. Stallwalkin’ Dude likes BEL and the distance and is coming off a good runs in his last three stakes.

Race 1      3-4-6-5

Noble Doss just missed at this distance in his first start of 2015.  Stays at the same price level. On his best day he looks like the field topper. Flash Paws won his last out at this distance. It was his best race in a while but he has strung them together in the past. Moneyinyour Pocket is dropping significantly in price from 2014. DJ hasn’t improved the horse, but if he runs some of the races we saw last year he’s a major contender. Groomedforvictory ran a good one last out. Last two starts have shown major improvement.

Race 2      1-7-3

Royal Ascot Zip was taken for $35K by Linda Rice first out. She put him right back in a MSW where he couldn’t hold his speed but drops him down to $20K today. Has plenty of speed and the only question is how he’ll take to the dirt. Heavy Hitter looked good at this level last out. I’ll swing for the fences with Warrior Jays in the third spot. He’s obviously not a turf horse, nor a high level claimer. Adds blinkers and moves to the dirt. I’m not saying he is a great thing, but I’ll use him in the verticals.

Race 3      3-2-7

Love to Run just won at this level two weeks ago, and actually has an intervening race. Chatterpaul has not had great success running them back so quickly, but the horse is in condition and is competitive in terms of figures. Star of New York has been consistent in 2015 and figures to be pushing at the end. BEL dirt win percentage is abyssmal though so not going overboard in the win slot. Cosmic Coincidence has been close in his last two at this level. Should be the one to catch.

Race 4      2-3-6

Killarney Rose has the fastest figures in the field and is dropping from MSW to this claiming affair. Will be hard to beat. Summer Chant is another dropping in the MCL ranks. Pletcher is fantastic moving horses to MCL and I’ll take it on faith this one will compete today. Durant missed the break last out but stayed in the race and closed well. Breeding doesn’t scream turf, but the first effort wasn’t bad.

Race 5      6-9-4

Swear by It moved over to the Chad Brown barn over the winter. Comes out looking for win number two. Well suited for the distance and Brown is excellent off the layoff. Resolutely came out well first time in 2015. Additional development over the winter should make her tough in this field. Aesthetique did not look good in her 2015 efforts at GP but should be better adapted to BEL.

Race 6      9-7-8

Bellamy Way was over his head in a stakes last out, but prior to that ran reasonably well against the very talented Ostrolenka. Figures fastest with the scratch of the 1. Devilish Grin has four seconds in five starts. Clearly has the talent, has to show he has the heart. Interior Secretary ran better than looked in his first out. Has been gelded since last winter and Weaver is ok with horses off the layoff.

Race 7      5-3-6

Spring to the Sky faltered in the Jaipur but before that was running consistently with better than this. Gets the nod against a softer bunch. Summation Time ships over from PID for Clement. One for one over the BEL turf and has the figures to compete. Shore Runner is four for four in the money over the BEL turf. Moved to the barn of Joe Sharp last out and he is quietly having a good meet.

Race 8      8-6-4

Marbre Rose has run two good races over the BEL turf. She encountered some traffic issues in the Intercontinental and could turn the tables on Zindaya today. Zindaya was the winner of the Intercontinental and that makes her 3 for 3 on the BEL turf. Rarely runs a bad one. Photo Call has been running in graded company lately and came close in the Beaugay. Passed an easier spot at Parx to run in this one.

Race 9      9-5-12

Women Win has been close to the winner in her last two races. With the scratches in today’s race, she many stand out. Bold Print has been on the turf the last two outs and has figures that make her competitive here. Sing for Beauty has shown plenty of early speed and with the scratches could inherit an easy lead, making her dangerous.

Race 1      5-4-2

El Genio was off close to two years, returned on the BEL dirt showing some speed while tiring in the last half of the race. The second race was a MCL on the turf and he showed much better staying power. Third off the long layoff should produce his best. Jai Alai drops from MSW to this claiming affair. Should appreciate the distance cutback. Southpaw goes first time for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is good with first timers, although he hasn’t impressed that much at BEL. Still, the workout pattern is positive and given the weak field you can’t discount his chances.

Race 2      9-4-10

Thundering Gale won last out and drops in price for Chad Brown. Every reason to expect a repeat. Desert Bliss has looked good on the BEL turf lately and has competitive figures. Bargaining Table looks as good as any to round out the verticals.

Race 3       6-5-1

Moonlit Bay ran two consecutive seconds in cheaper PA bred claimers but the figures say competitive. Worth a look at the odds. Danette has been looking to break through for a while now. Last race was as good as she’s run and perhaps that signals she is finally ready. Regia Marina puts the blinkers on and looks to repeat her last BEL performance.

Race 4      2-1-3

Tonasah goes for powerful Pletcher/Velasquez combination. Have to respect those two first time. Modiste has some speedy workouts. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Contessa. Fabulous Devotion is another with an eye-catching workout pattern. Clement is effective with debut runners and two year olds.

Race 5      2-4-6

Asset Inflation is one for one at the distance and 3 for 5 over the BEL turf. Has been a consistent performer for a while now and will be trying to carry his speed all the way. Dowse’s Beach is making his second start of 2015 and should improve in this start. Very competitive at this level. Hear the Footsteps is more competitive on the turf. Like BEL and the distance. Has run well off the layoff before.

Race 6      9-6-4

Global Stroke goes for the red hot Todd Pletcher. Was well thought of in 2014 with starts in two graded stakes. Won an OC $25K first out in 2015 and just missed at this level last out at BEL. Has been much improved since moved to the turf. Smooth Daddy was graded stakes placed in 2014 but is still looking for the 2015 breakthrough. Any return to last year’s form make him very dangerous. Heyaarat finished just behind Global Strike last out; fits the race and has the right figures.

Race 7      1-4-10

Breach of Duty looked good winning a $25K NW2. She’s two for two over the BEL surface. Gethot Stayhot was a winner at this level ten weeks ago, tried a state-bred stakes and is back where she has her best shot. Toscano has quietly been having a good meet. She’s Marvy is the best of the front runners. Comes off a claim by Klesaris who is 21% first time off the claim.

Race 8      3-7-2

Morandi the French horse has been off for two years, and comes back under the care of Chad Brown. Silver Lime has also been off since 2013. Both horses showed some talent, but there is no way to tell if the layoff has left them needing a race. I’m going to make them plays against and instead go with Biz the Nurse. He won at first asking in the U.S. but then was placed over his head in two graded stakes. The return to the OC ranks should allow him to show better. Iron Power has shown some good front running ability and if Jose Ortiz can nurse it along he’s got prospects. Reflecting fits the class and has the figures to compete, but lately has been having trouble cracking the win code. Perhaps the drop is the answer.

Race 9      9-1-4

Strong Impact has an excellent win percentage His last win came in a restricted stakes and since that time he’s been knocking without getting through. Return to the Bruce Brown stable is in his favor. Put It Forward should appreciate the distance cutback. Partly Mocha has shown some favor for the BEL turf and the distance and has competitive numbers.

Given the sloppy track and the races off the turf, I’m passing on today’s BEL card. Good luck to all who play.

Race 1      2-5-7

Call Daddy has been struggling to find the winner’s circle but has figures to top the field. Slight choice. Salem Loop was in a fast paced turf race last out but prior to that he just missed on the dirt. Looks better placed at the MCL level. Mr. Canada is newly gelded. Took to the BEL dirt and seems to be talented enough to make a successful run in this field.

Race 2      3-7-2

Bet the Power takes a typical Jacobson drop by more than half in price. Has a high lifetime win percentage although not so much lately. Looking for the DJ magic to kick-in in the third start since the claim. Chilton finished 2014 on a three race winning streak and ran in a good one in his 2015 debut. With slight improvement he can lead this field to the wire. Love to Run loves to run at BEL where he is almost 50% in the win slot.

Race 3      5-1-4

Ecstatic Miss goes for low key connections which might might explain the 15-1 ML. Still, her last race on the turf was better than looked, and she seems well suited to the surface. Worth a look at the price. Persnickety seems more suited to the sprint distance and ran very well two back at a slightly higher level. Will need to make sure she doesn’t have trouble finding a lane in the stretch. Spectacular Me was claimed off the win last out by Klesaris. Jumps up in price but figures say she is competitive with these.

Race 4      1/1A-7-4

The Godolphin entry of Cavallucci and Godrevy looks strong. Godrevy had a start in 2014 at GPW and comes back off an average series of works, albeit with first Lasix. Castellano takes the mount and that is positive. Cavallucci  has a long workout pattern, not necessarily something I like, but the last work was a nice bullet from the gate. McLaughlin is 20% first out. Private Show is newly gelded. May not have to worry about a killing pace today. Lots of potential. Gangster goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez. Can’t ignore.

Race 5      6-3-8

Private Tale just won for slightly less. In good shape and likes BEL.Grandpa Len comes off a win at this level and should be right with the front runner. Lietenant Seany O is 6 of 8 in the money, although five of those were seconds. Figures to be part of the verticals.

Race 6      6-2-8

The Big Deluxe jumps into an ALW NW1X after winning a OC $40K last out. One of the speed horses, but has shown heart when pressed. Victory is Sweet just finished second in a stake at PIM. Improving three year olds are always dangerous and this one looks to have some talent. Joking has been close at this level his last three outs and figures to be one of the horses poised to pick up the pieces if the front runners falter.

Race 7      4-2-9

Resolute Babe goes for the hard luck Gregory Di Prima and new jockey E V Rodriguez. Had a huge win at BEL at this level last year and ran well first out in 2015. Worth a look given the 12/1 ML. Queenofzeenile gets good turf rider Jose Lezcano. Was a little over her head last couple and should appreciate the drop in level. Daisy a Day was jumped up after the claim by Nevin but is better placed today.

Race 8      5-4-6-1

Make a Decision likes the BEL turf and looks well suited to the mile and a quarter distance.  Perhaps a little ambitiously placed here but the combination of BEL turf and distance preference makes him worth a look. Go Around broke his maiden at this distance in a strong time. Expect Mott to keep the horse approving. Sheldon was racing with graded company last year. Has been disappointing but looks to be on the improve. Request had some trouble in the stretch last out but still ran well for his first race of 2015. Hasn’t been the distance but seems to have some talent.

Race 9      10-9-2-8

Wonder Gal has been in nothing but graded stakes since breaking her maiden in a restricted stakes. No excuses in the Acorn but was still her top lifetime figure. The one to beat. Eskenformoney lost all shot at the start of the Kentucky Oaks but before that looked good in two graded stakes at GP. Should be pressing the pace and Pletcher is other worldly in dirt stakes. Include Betty will be coming from the clouds. Is the horse with a graded stakes win and can pick up the pieces if the front runner falter. Daness Deluxe has been improving. Will need some pace to run at but is certainly one to consider.

Race 10   7-9-11

Security Risk came close last out at KEE and has the best number in this field. Shinobi ran well first out and switches to Irad for this trip. Chad Brown wins with almost a third of his one start maidens. Doc Curlin barely missed last out and with small improvement has plenty of outs.

Race 1      6-2-4

Pure of Spirit has not run a bad race in a while. Even though she had trouble at the start in her last she tried hard throughout and made up ground the whole way. Ortiz stays the trip. Welcome Speech was claimed last out by Gullo who bumps her up a bit for this run. Last race figure suggests she’s competitive here. Tizallheart is stronger in the verticals than in the win slot.

Race 2      4-5-2

Tiztalented improved second time out and looks strongest in this group. Fine Instincts has been close in her five starts and is certainly talented enough to win. On the Trail didn’t have the best start last out but still ran a decent race. With improvement is a factor.

Race 3      6-8-2

Lubash has been dominating this group for a while and there is no reason to expect he’ll let up today. Notacatbutallama has tangled with Lubash before, usually on the losing end but still has talent and must be respected.

Race 4      1-4-2

Underthemoonlight has raced well at this level previously and has the figures to compete here. Samus ran well with winners when moved to the turf. Drops into a much easier spot here. Busted Handle has his lifetime best on the turf and is worth a look at 10-1 ML.

Race 5      6-5-2

Snake Pit comes off a strong win over at FL. Has been competitive with far better in the recent past and looks on top of this field classwise. My Adonis drops in half in price. Last race was better than looked and he figures to be contesting at the end. Rockford goes turf to dirt and Englehart is 33% with that move.

Race 6      8-6-1A-5

This race is a very competitive affair with maybe half the horses having legitimate claims on the win slot. Glacken Too was in graded stakes company last year and has looked good in two OC events in 2015. Has won on the front end but also shows some versatility. Noble Cornerstone makes his 2015 debut in this race and the works say ready to go. Johannesburg Smile comes off the long layoff for DJ and was his choice after scratching his entrymate Classic Salsa. Previous figures say he has a real chance here. Manhattan Johnnie looks to be the best speed with the scratch of the 1 and is dangerous.

Race 7      8-6-4

Payment Terms ran well in his first out, pressing a quick pace and still having some finish left. Longisland Express has been showing speed but has lacked heart in the stretch. Ray Handel still looking for that second win and has a shot here at long odds. True Rate finished well last race and looks to be as fast as any.

Race 8      3-6-4

Equilateral looked improved in her second start on the turf. Fast enough to beat this group. Samantha Nicole had a wide trip in her first start with winners but managed to finish well. Should be coming at the end. Touch the Moon ran a strong maiden race and looks strong for her first try with winners.

Race 9      6-4-9

Mistaken Love hasn’t looked bad in her three starts and has some speedy figures, albeit on the turf. Still, breeding probably favors the dirt. Switches to Nevin for this run. Buckskin Doll has been off over a year and a half but retains the training service of Todd Pletcher who is strong with these comeback types. Showed promise in her one start as a two year old. Wild Street Girl improved when dropped to the claiming ranks by Abby Adsit. Fits well in this group.

Race 1      4-3-6

Filly Idol has shown good speed in a few of her races, including a near miss at seven furlongs on the turf. Should be best at six furlongs. Sweetneida drops out of MSW into this much cheaper MCL. Another that should be at her best sprinting. Queen Katherina is another that is dropping from MSW. Has shown some ability to press and may get a part at a price.

Race 2      2-6-7

Prima Storm made a big improvement when dropped into the claiming ranks. Six starts, no wins while continually running competitive races is a cause for concern, but perhaps the second time at a claiming price is the charm. Summer Dancer looks like a horse that doesn’t want any part of the route distances. The cutback to a sprint and the addition of blinkers should help. Alaapatique lost his chance at the start last out. In a weak field has a bigger shot than his 10-1 ML suggests.

Race 3      3-4-1

Flipcup rarely runs a bad one and could be dominant in this state-bred allowance. Carameaway is another one that runs best at this level. Looks like the dominant speed and a return to 2014 form would bode well. Storied Lady may be a step slower than the top two but has definitely been competitive at this level.

Race 4      4-3-1

Another 2YO maiden race, this time for state-breds. Stormin Stephen has a good speed work at SAR and a top notch gate work five days ago. Up With the Sun is another with a few good works. RuRod is 20% with 2YO’s. Love That Jazz goes first time for Asmussen  who is pretty fair with first timers and 2YO’s.

Race 5      3-8-7

Melville puts the blinkers on for new trainer John Toscano. He’s 20% with new arrivals. Moving the horse up is probably a positive sign and his figures suggest a win is not out of the question. Pep the Champ seems to have enjoyed the addition of blinkers. Not thrilled with the plodding style but it has worked for him before. Birchwood Road has the best figures of the starters but has a lot of trouble winning. Worth a look in the verticals.

Race 6      10-5-3-1

Extensible drops from MSW to MCL for Chad Brown. New gelding has some good races at GP and gets the services of Irad for this trip. Balfe’s Corner is far better than his 15-1 ML indicates. Drops to his lowest level yet and actually has figures that look competitive in this field. Shake Things Up finished well at this level a month ago and looks to still be in good condition. Congrats to Ken finished right behind Shake Things Up last out. Will have to overcome the outside draw.

Race 7      2-3-1

Goodtolook has a win over the BEL dirt and is 3 of 4 at the distance. Likely better on the dirt than the turf. Beyond Empire was thriving under McLaughlin’s care last year, but flopped in Dubai. Has run well off the layoff previously. Escape to the Moon has looked strong at BEL. Should be the leader and the last time he was at a mile he didn’t finish well, but speed is always dangerous.

Race 8      8-2-5

Chasintheblues has improved with the addition of blinkers and has the figures to compete with this field. Small concern that he has had some trouble finding the second win, but efforts with winners have shown improved ability. Runaway Posse hasn’t run a bad one in seven tries and has been close in three races since breaking his maiden. Like the BEL dirt. Irish Jade is another struggling to find win number two, but has been competitive. Can’t discount.

Race 9      8-7-4-1

Sweet Lew has been consistent and has the best figures in the field. Slight price drop should be in his favor. Blue Pigeon was consistent in 2014 and looks to have improved in his second start of 2015. At 10-1 worth a long look. Mutasaawy is one of the closers who has a lot more seconds than wins. Must use in the verticals. Speeding Comet has really taken to the turf and fits the class. Has plenty of outs here.

With the rain and races being off the turf I won’t be doing full card picks. Instead, I’ll just do a late pick-4 for people to play with.

.                        “A” Horses        “B” Horses

Race 6                   9                         2,6,8

Race 7                   2                         6,10

Race 8                                               2B,9,11,12,13

Race 9                 7                         2,9

Race 1      7-5-1

Love to Run was claimed back by Chatterpaul last out and he drops him to the level where he recently won. Has shown an affinity for BEL. Cost Affective has been with much better in the recent past and beat a group of $14K claimers six weeks ago.  John Silver was over his head last out but before that had won two in a row. Get’s back on track today.

Race 2      2-1-8

Sister Superior ran well in her maiden voyage. Didn’t break particularly well and had to race wide, but still managed to pass all but one. Lots of room to improve today. Bella Joy has been showing good speed and may benefit with the cutback in distance. Drops in class with the move to state-breds. Spa Duchess has had trouble at the gate her first two starts. Takes the blinkers off today and with a better start should be a factor.

Race 3      6-3-2

Unbridled Ocean may have slowed down a step or two since turning seven but still shows a competitive spirit. Has been a consistent runner. Under Control ships in from CD to BEL for Motion. Motion is 25% coming off the layoff. Charming Kitten has probably been over his head in Grade 1 company but fits better here. Pletcher is deadly off the claim and more so when Johnny V is riding.

Race 4      3-6-10

Mind Magic beat more than half the field first time out  Drop to MCL from MSW should be helpful. One concern – first time going against older horses. Vischer Ferry by far the fastest but this is his eighth try as a maiden. Can’t ignore but be aware of the record. Fordham Bound never got into his last race but is well bred for the turf and the distance.

Race 5      1/1A-9-6

Both of the Motion entrants aren’t going to go but I’ll trust that whichever one Motion leaves in is the better runner. Gallery weakened slightly in the Penn Mile but fits well in this group. Syntax ran well first time with winners despite a troubled start. Mott/Lezcano a strong combo.

Race 6      2-6-5

Morethanawarning fits better at this level. Win record is disappointing but figures suggest she’s competitive in this group. La Inesperada was taken last out by Phil Serpe who is 22% first time back. Moves up a bit in price, but that can be interpreted as a positive. William’sluckygray is not a win type, but in this field it’s tough to come up with anything more solid. Ran faster on the turf last out than his previous races.

Race 7      7-8-3

Gran the Man matched a lifetime top  first out in 2015 and with improvement looks best. Hunt’s Road goes first time with winners. Figures say he has a chance at making it successful. Tiz Time to Shine broke his maiden in a state-bred stakes and comes out for the strong Chad Brown/Castellano duo. Could be any kind.

Race 8      4-3-7

The Grade 3 Bed Of Roses looked like a two horse race until La Verdad scratched. Dame Dorothy was always going to be a tough customer, but with the loss of the second choice the competition thins significatntly. She’s recently a Grade 1 winner and her figures dominate. Looks ultra-tough here. Room for Me should be the front runner. Has done well at BEL and likes to win. Tahoe Tigress should be the one coming in the stretch if the speed falters.

Race 9      4-3-2

Apache Warrior showed speed last out, lost focus and puts the blinkers on today. Workouts say go. Mpenzisboy is a longshot first timer. I like the early quick work and the steady pattern since then. Thank You is one of the more experienced runners in the field. Figures say competitive and perhaps he comes out a more competitive horse in 2015.

Race 10      11-6-2-12

Aussie Prayer seems better suited to the sprint distance. Last race was his best to date. Jamaalaree drops out of MSW. Has been improving and keeping on that trend could put him over the top. Clear Nite was beaten by Pink Freud Live last out but looks to be getting stronger. Pink Freud Live is competitive but may be up against it from the outside.