I’m going to admit this was a horror of a day to try to handicap. More than half the races don’t have a favorite less than 3-1 on the ML.  Other than Cupid, Cathryn Sophia, Flintshire and Exaggerator, there are no solid favorites. A number of races only have one horse that has no chance given the ML. Doesn’t look like the right day to empty your pockets, but there may be some opportunities arise. In fact, the Belmont may be one of the better betting races of the day.

Race 1

• 2  Cupid  1-1

• 3  Rally Cry  2-1

• 5  Economic Model  4-1

Race 2

• 1  Lemon Drop Title  3-1

• 6  Connect  3-1

• 3  Wake Up in Malibu  4-1

Race 3

• 5  Cathryn Sophia  8-5

• 6  Go Maggie Go  3-1

• 4  Carina Mia  7/2

Race 4

• 2  Samraat  3-1

• 7  Kid Cruz  4-1

• 5  Turco Bravo  3-1

Race 5

• 2  Stopchargingmaria  3-1

• 5  Curalina  3-1

• 6  Forever Unbridled  4-1

• 7  Sheer Drama  5-1

Race 6

• 11  Guns Loaded  3-1

• 2  A Lot  7/2

• 7  Green Mask  5-1

Race 7

• 4  Justin Squared  7/2

• 1  Sharp Azteca  4-1

• 6  Seymourdini  5-1

Race 8

• 5  My Miss Sophia  7/2

• 1  Strike Charmer  4-1

• 8  Celestine  4-1

• 10  Faufiler  5-1

Race 9

• 5  Frosted  3-1

• 7  Stanford  4-1

• 4  Noble Bird 9/2

Race 10

• 10  Flintshire  2-1

• 5  Big Blue Kitten  3-1

• 6  Ironicus  4-1

• 11  Divisidero. 5-1

Race 11

• 11  Exaggerator  9/5

• 2  Destin  4-1

• 4  Suddenbreakingnews  9/2

• 13  Creator  5-1

• 10  Lani 5-1

This edition of the Belmont Stakes seems to be Exaggerator and everyone else.

• Governor Malibu finished second in the Peter Pan three weeks ago. Having a race over the BEL track is usually an advantage, but he simply doesn’t look fast enough to be much of a factor in this race. He skipped the first two legs of the TC, not necessarily an advantage, and his breeding doesn’t seem suited to the mile and a half.
• Destin went in the Derby and then passed the Preakness. There are a number of positives for this horse and I’ve put him right behind Exaggerator on the odds line. He was sired by Giant’s Causeway, a good stamina influence, so the mile and a half should not be a problem. He had an eight week layoff heading into the Derby, in most opinions simply too long. He’s got five weeks off coming into this race, maybe just about the right amount of time. One other thing in his favor – he has a strong win over the BEL dirt. He should be in a good pressing spot. He has real chances today.
• Cherry Wine was a horse I did not like in the Preakness, but he proved me wrong there. I’m sticking with my opinion for the Belmont. He does not have the breeding nor the style for the mile and a half distance. Despite the sharp Preakness second, I’m not looking for him in the verticals here.
• Suddenbreakingnews does not inspire me in the win slot, but I thought he ran pretty decently in the Derby and prior to that ran well in Arkansas. On the down side, he has the wrong style for the Belmont, but his breeding suggests a mile and a half shouldn’t be an issue. More likely in the verticals.
• Stradivari has Todd Pletcher in his corner, but a top three finish would be a surprise in my opinion.
• Gettysburg should be prompting the pace but he simply doesn’t look strong enough to make a dent here.
• Seeking the Soul seems like a vanity entry, because his race record of three maiden starts and one win at a mile doesn’t suggest any chance in this stakes.
• Forever d’Oro – see Seeking the Soul.
• Trojan Nation came out of the slow Wood Memorial and ran as expected in the Derby. He’s still a maiden and this is not the place to break it.
• Lani has a few positives in his favor. First, he’s very well bred for the distance. He is coming off a clunker in the Derby (expected) but showed improvement in the Preakness and improved his figure in that race. Given the paucity of real competition in this race, Lani cannot be dismissed as easily as he was in the first two legs of the TC.
• Exaggerator will be a solid favorite in this race and deservedly so. His Derby was impressive, his Preakness outstanding. Is he vulnerable? Perhaps. His breeding is ok for this distance but his style does not fit the typical Belmont winner. Still, he’s been with the best and beaten the best and the field is not outstanding top to bottom.
• Brody’s Cause won the Blue Grass, but was not particularly sharp in the KY Derby. He has the breeding but his style isn’t ideal. A very outside chance to make the verticals.
• Creator had a troubled trip in the Derby and I’m willing to excuse that finish. He has the breeding , but unfortunately he is another one of the come-from-the-clouds horses. Still I think he has the talent to make an impact in the verticals.
• It’s hard to bet against Exaggerator despite a nagging feeling there is not enough speed in this race to make it easy for him to unleash the patented close. However, he has enough talent and Desormeaux has enough experience to make sure the most talented horse in the race is in the right spot turning for home. I just keep coming back to Destin who might just be the best combination of speed and class. I also am thinking about slipping Lani into my verticals.

Race 12

• 2  Gold Shield  3-1

• 3  Inordinate  7/2

• 4  Make a Decision  9/2

• 6  Artic North  5-1

Race 13

• 2  Amoral  3-1

• 10  Watershed  3-1

• 6  Cerro  4-1

• 8  Manhattan Mischief  5-1

Race 1

• 4  Encrypt  2-1

• 1  One More Round  5/2

• 2  Preservationist  3-1

Encrypt makes his third start for Kieran McLaughlin with two second place finishes to his credit. Given his $1.2 million purchase price, much had to have been expected from the horse. In his last he had some trouble at the start on a muddy track and had the jockey lose the whip, plus he was four clear of the third place horse. Gets another chance today. One More Round has done most of his running out West except for the Grade 3 Lexington. It’s a little disappointing to see him making his sixth start without a win, but perhaps the change of scenery will make a difference. A C Avila is still listed as the trainer and he does little to inspire me, but the horse’s numbers suggest he’s in the right place today. Preservationist is a $485K purchase making his debut for Jimmy Jerkens. He’s bred to win early and shouldn’t have any issue with the distance.

Race 2

• 2  Pine Needles  3-1

• 6  Daring Duchess  3-1

• 4  Real Smart  7/2

Pine Needles had been off since November and ran a decent race on the soft KEE turf a month and a half ago. Should have had plenty of recovery time. Fits the conditions if she runs to her top figure she’s a major contender. Daring Duchess made her 2016 debut at GP in February and after a poor start made a nice close to only lose the whole thing by three. Pressed the pace at BEL three weeks ago and in a race with very little apparent speed, she may have a big advantage. Worth a long look. Real Smart was racing at minor British tracks before shipping to BEL for his last start which she won. She jumps up in price today, but her figure says she’s a contender.

Race 3

• 6  Theogony  9/5

• 4  Joint Return  2-1

• 2  Mei Ling  3-1

Theogony has been moving around lately, moving from OP to HOU back to OP and then to PIM. She’s had a second in a G3 and didn’t disgrace herself in the G1 Apple Blossom or the G2 Azeri. She’ll be depending on an honest pace but she should be comfortable with the 12 furlong distance. Joint Return finished just behind the top choice last out. A little dicey considering she hasn’t visited the winner’s circle in a couple of years, but she fits well in this group. Mei Ling appears to be the speed in this race and often these long affairs are stolen by horses setting passive fractions. She’s recently G3 placed and hasn’t run out of the money at BEL lifetime.

Race 4

• 3  Lady Stardust  3-1

• 1  Saratoga Two Step  7/2

• 4  Hey Mike  4-1

The Tremont features a field of recently graduated two year olds, including the filly Lady Stardust. Her maiden win was a big effort and I’m banking she’ll beat the boys today. Saratoga Two Step is another who ran lights out in his maiden and has every reason to contend today. Hey Mike finished second in the KY Juvenile in his first with winners and gets another chance to win a stakes today.

Race 5

• 2  Appealing Maggie    3-1

• 6  Kareena  3-1

• 4  Quick Release  7/2

Appealing Maggie is riding a two race win streak and showed she belongs in this stakes off a bang-up win in an OC $80K last out. Should be the speed of the speed in a race loaded with it. At 10-1 ML she’s worth a long look. Kareena is coming off a nice maiden win at KEE and is one of the many with speed and a good pace figure. Quick Release showed well in the Miss Preakness and actually has the best last race figure.

Race 6

• 8  Datamining  3-1

• 4  Rock Eagle  7/2

• 9  Good Response  4-1

Datamining was claimed last out by Jason Servis who is 38% first off the claim. Before breaking his maiden he had been close in some FG turf races and has plenty of upside. The hot Jose Ortiz gets the mount. Rock Eagle fits the condition, although he’s had a bit of trouble cracking the win code. Good Response finally broke his maiden last year and almost made it two in a row. He laid off from October to April and came back in a NW1X at KEE where he didn’t show very well. Should improve in his second start of the year.

Race 7

• 1  R Limo Joe  5/2

• 4  Maniacal  3-1

• 7  Adulator  3-1

R Limo Joe dominated a cheaper field of optional claimers and earned a very high figure when doing so. Having Castellano aboard shouldn’t hurt. Should be value today. Maniacal won his 2016 debut in strong fashion. Ward is having a good BEL meet and an even better 2016, Johnny V stays for the trip. Adulator is another pressing horse in a race loaded with speed. His last race showed his talent and his BEL works are dynamite.

Race 8

• 6  Always Sunshine  5/2

• 5  Catalina Red  5/2

• 1  Holy Boss  7/2

On a day where races seem to be filled with speed, this one is no exception. With Private Zone ruled out of the race, it suddenly become a lot more open. Always Sunshine has won four of his last five, including a G3 last out at PIM. His numbers hold up much better in the absence of PZ. Catalina Red is on a two race win streak, although he hasn’t won a graded affair yet. Has the top last race figure now. Holy Boss has been in nothing but graded races since last year’s Amsterdam, although he hasn’t had a win since that race. Has a much better shot today to break in.

Race 9

• 1  Sea Calisi  2-1

• 7  Guapaza  3-1

• 3  Trophee  4-1

Sea Calisi won her first start in NA when she took the Sheepshead Bay in early May. That race gave her a lifetime best figure She was a Group 2 winner in France and Group 1 placed in Britain and France. Brown should have her wound up for this one. Guapaza has two Graded placings since shipping from Chile, including a second to the top choice last out. Another Chad Brown horse and he is just dynamite with turf fillies. Trophee has struggled against graded competition, but Clement should have her ready to roll here.

Race 10

• 9  Kaigun  3-1

• 5  Da Big Hoss  7/2

• 4  Up With the Birds  4-1

Kaigun specializes in longer distance races and showed well in the recent Man O War. Prior to that he was first or second six times in a row. Hard trying horse who should be in top condition for the capable Mark Casse. Up With the Birds has a number of Grade 1 races including the Canadian Invitational, the Arlington Million, and the previously mentioned Man O War. Off his best races he’s a contender.

Race 11

• 6  Disco Bill  3-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 8  Move Forward  4-1

• 4  Courageous Colonel  9/2

• 7  Street Fightin Man  5-1

Horse to Watch Disco Bill heads this field. His last is better than looked and he’s a better horse on the turf. He broke in the air last out, rushed to make contact with the main pack and faded as expected. He’s a horse far more used to running toward the front and with a clean break today he’s got much greater chances. Move Forward has been steady if not remarkable at the MCL level. Courageous Colonel made a big improvement when moved back on the turf last out. Should be the one to catch. Street Fightin Man was gelded after his last race. He’s been consistently close and perhaps the “equipment change” gets him over the top.

Race 1

• 2  Malibu Princess  5/2

• 4  Delay of Game  5/2

• 3  Genuine Happiness  3-1

The opener is a tough affair with a number of legitimate contenders. Malibu Princess should be the speed here and comes in off an interesting GP race. She adds blinkers today, although that shouldn’t be a big deal. Her race was against a blowout winner by 10 and the second place horse won her next out. Even though the race is a half furlong longer, she may be able to set a comfortable pace and have things her own way. Delay of Game was also demolished by a runaway winner at GP, but came back at KEE to only miss by a length while racing wide. The combination of McLaughlin and Lezcano is 42% at this meeting,  Genuine Happiness took well to the BEL dirt and Jose Ortiz stays for the ride.

Race 2

• 1  Core Portfolio  2-1

• 5  Eden Ridge   3-1

• 3  Clifton Pleasure  7/2  ** HORSE TO WATCH

You could make a case for most of the horses in this race but you have to go somewhere. In this very competitive affair,  Core Portfolio came off a short layoff to win a a $55K starter, and drops into a NW1X for statebreds today. Hasn’t been worse than second in his last five. Eden Ridge is another coming out of a $55K starter that he won for high percentage trainer Danny Gargan. Numbers fit in this field. Horse to Watch Clifton Pleasure doesn’t have a great win percentage, and he’s been at this level a while, but he usually gives an honest accounting. His last race was much better than looked and he has to be given extra chances today.

Race 3

• 2  Sweetrayofsunshine  2-1  ** HORSE TO WATCH

• 3  Doublebolt  5/2

• 5  Making Havoc  3-1

This race appears loaded with speed, and no standout closer. Sweetrayofsunshine has won just about 50% of her lifetime starts and lately 3 of her last 4, with a second at this level two back. She was a Horse to Watch off her May 1 race, then went to MTH and won there. Figures are very competitive. Doublebolt comes off a short rest and drops back to a one turn race where she seems to be a better horse. Johnny V signs up for the ride. Making Havoc tried stakes company at CT last out, giving a fair accounting of herself. Fits the level and has competitive numbers.

Race 4

• 1  Tailoredforsuccess  3-1

• 9  On Leave  3-1

• 10  Flower Valley  4-1

Tailoredforsuccess is one of the two Chad Brown horses entered here. She made her debut at this distance, a fairly difficult ask for a first time maiden. She didn’t really threaten, but she comes back with blinkers on and the experience. Her figure from the last race puts her in the mix. On Leave makes her 2016 debut for Shug McGaughey. She gets first Lasix and the works suggest she should come to the track in shape. Flower Valley really improved when moved to the turf and could be good value in this race.

Race 5

• 1  Achnaha  5/2  ** HORSE TO WATCH

• 6  Al Khazaaliya  5/2

• 4  Return to Grace  3-1

• 2  Suffused  7/2

Achnaha comes off the Horses to Watch list. She closed into a dawdling pace to win her last,  and although that was an OC 25K, she was competitive in two G3 races previously. Hadn’t shown a lot of interest in winning, but the deep sustained style seems to have been a good move. Al Khazaaliya has three races at three different tracks and this will be the fourth race in a row on a new track. There are a lot of contenders in this race, but I like the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant based on her good current condition and ability to go the distance. Her numbers are competitive as well. Return to Grace seems to have returned to hand after a couple of flops in graded stakes. Still, she’s multiple grades stakes placed, and has the top last race figure. Suffused ran well first time in the U.S. and then ran into a buzzsaw named Onus. The hot Jose Ortiz takes the mount today.

Race 6

• 8  Uncharted Course  3-1

• 2  More Zen Tea  7/2

• 6  So Noted  7/2

Uncharted Course gets the nod in this mess of a race. He had race topping numbers in the three races prior to his last and should be the one to catch here. More Zen Tea has a 25% lifetime win percentage, and just won his last at this price level. Englehart is very good off the short layoff. So Noted hasn’t finished out of the money in his short career. Ran well off the long layoff last out and should improve today.

Race 7

• 9  Bode’s Dream  3-1

• 1  Olive Branch  7/2

• 7  Lightning Dove  4-1

Every horse in the race has exactly one start, and none of the horses ran a bad one, so this is really wide open. Bode’s Dream was a $300K purchase as a yearling and justified her price by easily wiring a field in her debut. Should be able to stay out of trouble on the outside of this field. Olive Branch already has a victory over the BEL dirt and has the top last race figure in the field. Lightning Dove won the same day as China Grove in almost exactly the same time. I like the fact she is an Uncle Mo, but as I said, there won’t be a surprise no matter who wins the race.

Race 8

• 8  Zindaya  2-1

• 3  Mississippi Delta  3-1

• 1  Shrinking Violet  4-1

In another of the races in a very competitive late Pick-4. Zindaya gets the nod for Chad Brown. She ran well in the License Fee the first week of the BEL meet, although the time may be a little inflated because the turf was lightning fast. Steps up to seven furlongs where she has a win in her lone start at the distance. Mississippi Delta cuts back a furlong after running a couple of good races in graded stakes at a mile. Numbers are very competitive. Shrinking Violet steps up to a distance she hasn’t negotiated previously, but she’s in good condition and was only a length behind the top choice in the License Fee.

Race 9

• 3  Billy’s Kitten  5/2

• 8  Vulcan’s Forge  3-1

• 2  Nigel’s Destiny  7/2

Billy’s Kitten is only making his fourth start for Chad Brown, He won at a mile and a half last out, and drops back a furlong today. Has had a nice rest in prep for this race and Brown in 24% in the second start coming off the long layoff. Vulcan’s Forge should be coming from off the pace today. Ran well in his first with winners and drops way down today. Nigel’s Destiny ran very well first time in America despite bobbling at the start.

Selections are for a Fast track and all races on the turf.

Race 1

• 3  Put It Forward  5/2

• 1  Life in Shambles  3-1

• 7 U S Citizen  7/2

High early speed doesn’t seem to be a particular advantage at the sprint distances on the turf. Put It Forward was just claimed by Danny Gargan last year. Gargan is usually good off the claim, although that was almost 11 months ago. He had a 50% winning percentage in 2014, but didn’t do much in 2015. Perhaps Gargan has him straightened out. Should do fine with the distance. Life in Shambles makes a pretty good drop in price. Last race was only his second on the turf and represented a good number. U S Citizen has a tendency to finish second and should have good prospects in the verticals.

Race 2

• 7  Rare Eagle  3-1

• 5  Big East  7/2

• 2  Humboldt N Frost  7/2

This is a race where all the horses have as many negatives as positives. Rare Eagle dropped to this level last out after being off for three and a half months.  He ran well, although he’s not shown a real affinity for winning. I’d venture he’s not worth 8-5, but could be tough off the drop. Big East was a little ambiguous first time with winners, but leading up to that had some good figures with maidens. Humboldt N Frost seems to have all the speed, but hasn’t been courageous in the stretch. Still, could find himself alone up front and that could be dangerous.

Race 3

• 6  Sky Tom  5/2

• 4  Shkspeare Shallyah  5/2  **Horse to Watch

• 7  Snake Oil Charlie   3-1

Sky Tom was racing with better last year and ran a good race first time out in 2016. With improvement he could be the one. Shkspeare Shallyah comes off the HORSES TO WATCH list and gets to be co-choice here. He ran a great race first time out in 2016, breaking poorly but finishing best of all. The down side – the 2 for 32 record is uninspiring. But you have to give him a chance given that last effort. Snake Oil Charlie ran a good figure at this level two back and may be in a good spot turning for home.

Race 4

• 11  Width  2-1  ** Horses to Watch

• 7  Shiawassee  4-1

• 6   Secure Access  4-1

• 2  She Doesn’t Mind  9/2

Width comes off the HORSES TO WATCH list after leading most of the way in her second start of the year. She was well thought of last year and seems to be ready to pop a big one today. Shiawassee flopped last out at KEE on the soft turf. With a firmer surface she should be a contender. Secure Access had a troubled start in her first out of the year but still showed some interest in the stretch. Best figure from last year would top the field. She Doesn’t Mind runs second time in the U. S. for Chad Brown. First start was a good second after being steadied on the backstretch, but the figure seems a little short of some of the other contenders. Would be no surprise, although the odds may not represent value.

Race 5

• 1/1A  Hundred Percent/ Roll Tide Roll  1-1

• 7  Grey Glory  3-1

• 2  Tabaddol  7/2

The entry of Hundred Percent and Roll Tide Roll looks to be tough in this spot. Roll Tide Roll looks to be the more likely of the two by far. Grey Glory has good speed and adds blinkers today. Drops in price and that should help. Tabaddol is making a substantial drop in price and a slight cutback in distance. Both should make him a legitimate contender today.

Race 6

• 5  Chase Motto  2-1

• 2  Girl Talk  5/2

• 6   Deedeezee  7/2

This race is wide open. I could make a case for any of the horses but I put Chase Motto on top. She showed a ton of speed last out and finished in a good time on a sloppy track. Things may be a little different today, but off the debut she’s the most interesting. Girl Talk made a nice move in her debut race and came back with a sharp workout last out. Will certainly get plenty of action. Deedeezee just missed in her 2016 debut. The time wasn’t fast, but you have to respect Pletcher/Castellano.

Race 7

• 12  Speeding Comet  3-1

• 4  Zandar  4-1

• 8  Summer Breezing  4-1

Speeding Comet came out firing in his first outing of 2016. Likes the distance, likes BEL and if he runs to his last race he’s got the top figure. Zandar is making his 2016 debut after finishing 3 lengths out in a restricted stakes to finish 2015. Likes BEL and should prefer the seven furlong trip. Sumer Breezing won his last out and was taken out of that race by Danny Gargan. He’s strung them together before and it is a good sign he came close to his top from 2015.

Race 8

• 6  Readthebyline  3-1

• 4   Street Lord  7/2

• 7   Beyond the Green  4-1

This race is a fairly wide open and frankly I’m not excited about any of the horses. Readthebyline has two wins in a row and jumps up a little for Danny Gargan. Figure suggests he’s not over his head here. Street Lord figures to be in a good striking position for new trainer DJ. He’s not as prolific as he has been in the past first off the claim, but he should have a real shot with this one. Beyond the Green had run well earlier in 2016 but didn’t seem to enjoy the mud last out. His best makes him a real contender.

Race 9

• 1  Market Strength  2-1

• 7  Just Been Jammin  4-1

• 5   City Gold  5-1

• 4  Arch Contender  5-1

Market Strength drops from MSW to the claiming ranks and adds blinkersfor Chad Brown. Brown is actually 22% with the addition of blinkers and an incredible 50% moving from MSW to MCL. Just Been Jammin ran a big figure when first moved to the turf and with any improvement is a prime contender. City Gold didn’t race so well in a race washed off the turf. 2YO figures suggest he should be competitive in this race. Arch Contender had trouble at the start in his first race but regathered and managed to make up quite a few lengths. Could be much more dangerous with a better start.

Race 1

• 6  Dream On  2-1

• 3  Classy Chris  5/2

• 4  Ginned Up  5-1

Two horses stand out in this race, but the remainder represent a lot of unknown quantities. Not a particularly good betting race in my opinion.

Race 2

• 7  Enduring Touch 3-1

• 1  Five Star Rampage  7/2

• 6  Golden Gem  4-1

I thought you could make a case for most of the horses in this race. Other than Enduring Touch the race looks very light on speed so he may have a decided advantage, especially considering he lost most of his chance at the start of his last race.

Race 3

• 6  Sioux  5/2 *HORSE TO WATCH

• 4  Royal Posse  5/2

• 2  Bellamy Way  4-1

We haven’t had too many horses to watch come up, but Sioux is one of them. He’s jumping up a bit, but he loves the distance and does well at BEL. I think the odds may be favorable.

Race 4

• 7  Jules N Rome  5/2

• 3  Perfect Freud  5/2

• 4  Haveyougoneaway  7/2

This race appears to have a ton of speed horses and no standout off the pace runner. Danny Gargan has really given Jules N Rome some new found energy. Perfect Freud is listed at 15-1 on the ML. I think he would be a huge value at that price. But don’t kid yourself – lots of horses have a chance here.

Race 5

• 2  Rescue Cat  3-1

• 6 J K’s Girl  4-1

• 5  Stormin Saratoga  4-1

This is one of those turf races where almost none of the horses have turf preps. Another complicating factor is that the past performances reveal very little real speed in the race. Rescue Cat is the obvious horse with turf experience and the crowd is unlikely to ignore her. Lots of question marks.

Race 6

• 1  Sudden Surprise  5/2

• 5  Championofthenile  3-1

• 9  Awesome Gent  4-1

• 4  Lucky Lurie  5-1

Race 7

• 7  King Kreesa  3-1

• 6  Lubash  7/2

• 2  Kharafa  7/2

• 1  Macagone  7/2

This looks like a lot of NY State-bred turf stakes from 2015. I’ve always shown a little favoritism to King Kreesa and Lubash. Macagone gets added off his win against Lubash last out. King Kreesa is definitely a fan of the BEL turf.

Race 8

• 1  Bag of Tricks  3-1

• 10  Absatootly  7/2

• 4  Katniss the Victor  4-1

• 5  Frosty Margarita  4-1

Race 9

• 9  Neck of the Moon  7/2

• 2  Distorted Beauty  4-1

• 7  The Tea Cups  9/2

Race 10

• 7  House of Friends  3-1

• 8  Vino Bianco  7/2

• 3  Open Book  4-1

• 4  Southern Gentleman  5-1

Another turf race where the turf form is absent from most of the horses.  Other than Vino Bianco, I’m looking for horses that have reasonably good turf breeding and with room for improvement.

Race 1

• 3   Meet in Khartoum  3-1

• 2  Sweetneida  4-1

• 5  Shovalia  4-1

Race 2

• 7  Bahama Halo  3-1

• 5  Speliker  3-1

• 6  Mindfulness  7/2

Race 3

• 7  Is She Hot  5/2

• 4  Pearls for Girls  3-1

• 5  Cow Catcher  9/2

Race 4

• 1  Amazing Anne  5/2

• 8  Wealth Creation  5/2

• 5  Cap’s Vow  7/2

Race 5

• 2  Forever d’Oro  9/5

• 5  Abstract Cape  3-1

• 4  Seat of Honor  7/2

• 3  Travis County  4-1

Race 6

• 5  Asset Inflation  2-1

• 8  Runaway Posse  5-2

• 1  Polar Axis  3-1

• 7  Front  4-1

Race 7

• 9  Saratoga Smoke  3-1

• 2  Flattermefabulous  7/2

• 7  Feeling Bossy  4-1

Race 8

• 5  Our Cavern  2-1

• 6  Mills  3-1

• 4  Farhaan  4-1

Race 9

• 5  Princessofthieves  7/2

• 9  Sweet Ella  4-1

• 11  Galroyale  9/2

• 8  Finge Benefits  5-1

Race 1

• 3  Runaway Lute  5/2

• 4  Right Ben  3-1

• 2  Jegos Fire  3-1

Runaway Lute was the most expensive purchase in this field and Castellano takes the ride today. The down side – Contessa has a horrible record with first time starters. He’s bred to sprint and the works looks decent. Right Ben goes for Mark Hennig who isn’t much better with first timers. Sold for six times the stud fee and gets the hot Jose Ortiz for the debut. Jegos Fire has a couple of starts and has showed good speed. Experience may help.

Race 2

• 7  Slapstick  3-1

• 8 Brett the Jet  4-1

• 3  Stormin Stephen  5-1

Slapstick had a troubled start last out but closed impressively to only lose by 5. Has shown good speed in previous turf efforts and given this is only his second start of the year some improvement puts him right in the mix. Brett the Jet makes his first start of the year after being gelded. Gets a trainer change to Gary Gullo who is 24% with new charges. Stormin Stephen adds blinkers today after a good debut for 2016. Even while bumped at the start he still managed to get into the race and run well to the end.

Race 3

• 6  Fielding Gold  3-1

• 4  After Cheyenne  7/2

• 2  Hot Squad  4-1

Fielding Gold drops out of MSW to this MCL event. Last was better than looked and should be competitive in this group. After Cheyenne has a place and show in three lifetime starts and is now a newly gelded horse. Should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Hot Squad finally drops from MSW to MCL. Has been close previously and the drop should help today. Switch to Jose Ortiz is positive.

Race 4

• 3  Majestic Jessica  9/5

• 7  My Won Love  3-1

• 1  Run a Dubb Dubb/Champagne Ruby  4-1

Majestic Jessica was claimed last out by Gary Sciacca after winning at this level. Repeat not out of the question. My Won Love has a win and a show in two starts at BEL. Figures from last year would dominate this field, and she looks like she is improving form. Potential overlay. The entry of Run a Dubb Dubb and Champagne Ruby both have outs in this race. Run a Dubb Dubb is probably the better of the two.

Race 5

• 7  Detail  3-1

• 9  Table for Six  4-1

• 6  Miss Kew  9/2

Detail didn’t have the luckiest race in her first start of 2016, but it was still her best number in a while. Should appreciate both the distance and BEL. Table for Six makes her 2016 debut. She won her maiden debut last year. Figures as a two year old are competitive in this group and some improvement makes her a prime contender. Miss Kew improved substantially when put back on the turf and should make an impact today.

Race 6

• 1  Vandalize  6/5

• 3  Union River  3-1

• 4  Prince Zurs  4-1

Vandalize smashed a field in his 2016 debut and looks to be the fastest by far in here. Union River has been suffering from a case of seconditis which makes him worth considering in the verticals. Prince Zurs has good prospects to round out the trifecta. Even at the 10-1 ML he’s not that far out of it.

Race 7

• 8  Mark My Style  3-1

• 5  Hello Don Julio  3-1

• 7  Tale of Fancy  4-1

This is a highly competitive race with almost all the horses having a chance to make a mark. Mark My Style hasn’t been worse than third in his last five and has the best last race figure. Jumps up a little today, but seems to have enough talent to get it done. Hello Don Julio won his maiden debut at a mile and didn’t race badly in his last on a yielding BEL turf. Tale of Fancy was in the same BEL turf race as the second choice and ran an even third. Has the look of a contender today.

Race 8

• 8  Mighty Mo  9/5

• 1  Conquest See Ya  5/2

• 4  Rappel  3-1

• 5  Too Discreet  4-1

Mighty Mo just missed in the Woodhaven in his last start. Looks to comfortably be the fastest in the race. Conquest See Ya comes off a maiden win at six furlongs on the BEL turf. Looks to be on the improve for Mark Casse and will have to be caught today. Rappel faltered in the Woodhaven but prior to that looked ready to jump up. Gets first Lasix today. Too Discreet pressed the pace in the Woodhaven and figures to improve today with a 2016 start under his belt. Not out of the question.

Race 9

• 6  Lord of Love  3-1

• 1A  Three for Me  4-1

• 7 Disco Partner  9/2

• 8  Sanctify  9/2

Lord of Love is two of six at the six furlong distance and cuts back to that distance today. Nice switch to Irad Ortiz today. Three for Me didn’t do much in his 2016 debut but prior to that looked had been competitive on most of his races. His best figure would easily top this field. Disco Partner is 3 for 3 first or second on the BEL turf and 2 for 2 first or second at the distance. Very competitive figures. Sanctify is better than his 10-1 ML looks and may make an impression in the verticals.

Race 10

• 2  Three Eighty Eight  5/2

• 6  Love Blues  4/1

• 11  She’s All Love 9/2

Three Eighty Eight debuted with a good second at a mile despite a slightly troubled start. Love Blues improved sharply when moved to the turf last out. Should appreciate the additional stretch out in distance. She’s All Love ships in from LRL after running first time on the turf. Actually may be dropping in class today. Last race figure is very competitive here.

Race 1

• 3  Red Lodge  2-1

• 7  Dangerous Dan  5/2

• 2  Made You Look  4-1

Race 2

• 5  Valkimqua  5/2

• 6  Spectacular Flash  5/2

• 4  Just Sisters  3-1

Race 3

• 4  My Cara Mia  5/2

• 1  Quest  5/2

• 2  Coming Attraction  4-1

Race 4

• 9  Ross J Dawg  9/5

• 5  Crescent Street  3-1

• 1  Completely Bonkers  4-1 

Race 5 

• 6  Warrior’s Diva  3-1

• 1  Lebowski  3-1

• 8  Indygo Tigress  4-1

• 4  Tizthefastlaine  9/2

Race 6 

• 7  Cliffs Of Dover  7/2

• 2  Hirschbein  4-1

• 1  King Dix C  5-1

Race 7

• 2  Outlash  6/5

• 6  Mongolian King  3-1

• 5  Mighty Zealous  4-1

Race 8

• 3  Ortiga  3-1

• 9  Glass House  3-1

• 6  Quaver  4-1

• 1  Orient Harbor  9/2

Race 9

• 10  Complicated  5/2

• 2  Deltalina  3-1

• 8  Akron Gold  4-1

• 3  Kelsocait  5-1

Race 1

• 3  Milaya  2-1

• 5  Eskenformoney  2-1

• 2  My Savannah Belle  3-1

Milaya finished second in her last race on the AQU dirt. Has done well at the distance and has slightly the best pace figure. Eskenformoney has a resume filled with graded stakes races, but her wins came in her maiden and in an OC$75K. Her last race was her 2016 debut and she should improve today. She’s at the right level. My Savannah Belle had a troubled beginning in the G3 Distaff but has three wins in her seven lifetime starts. She’s another that fits on speed and price.

Race 2

• 1  Driven By Speed  5/2

• 2  Conquest Hardcandy  7/2

• 8  Paz the Bourbon  4-1

This state-bred juvenile filly race looks fairly wide open. Driven By Speed is the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant. He looks like he might be prepping for something longer, but he’s well bred for the sprint. Tepid choice. Conquest Hardcandy goes for the competent Mark Casse. She sold for $150K as a yearling and that is one of the more expensive fillies in the field. Paz the Bourbon has some good gate works and should be able to get good early position. She sold for 20 times the stud fee.

Race 3

• 9  High I.Q. Pete  5/2

• 6  Afleet Martini  3-1

• 7  Lubsen  9/2

High I.Q. Pete drops out of MSW in this MCL event. Flopped in the slop last out but should be the one to catch and has competitive figures. Afleet Martini jumps up in price today but his figures say he’s competitive with this group. Lubsen makes his 2016 debut with a couple of changes. He’s been gelded since last year and he drops into a MCL after debuting in a MSW. Might be the one to catch in this race.

Race 4

• 5  Try Flying  5/2

• 4  Nicholson  4-1

• 3  Interior Secretary  9/2

Try Flying won at $25K two back and was claimed last out by DJ. Looks to be the fastest horse in the race but may not be as good as the 4/5 ML indicates. Nicholson has a lot of races and a tendency to finish second. More likely in the verticals.  Interior Secretary broke his maiden three back, jumped up to an ALW NW1X  and then back down to this level. In a paceless race he might have an advantage. Irad takes the mount and that is a slight positive.

Race 5

• 1  Alabama Bound  5/2

• 9  Talkin Til Midnight  3-1

• 7  Tizzelle  7/2

Alabama Bound makes her 2016 debut after running a bang up race to end the 2015 campaign. She looks like she has good front speed and works should have her ready. Talkin Til Midnight ran well in her maiden effort at AQU and Linda Rice is having a good BEL meet. Some improvement makes her a major contender. Tizzelle had a troubled start in her first race but still managed to finish within a half length of the winner. With a clean start she has every chance to win.

Race 6

• 9  Pira  2-1

• 7  Meatball Maddness  3-1

• 1  Picco Uno  4-1

Pira has been compromised at the break in her first two starts but still has the top turf figures in the race. With a clean break she might have a much better position. Meatball Maddness showed good speed at a route distance and looked comfortable first time on the turf.  Positive switch to Jose Ortiz. Picco Uno looked good on the dirt and tries this turf sprint. Only question is whether she will get a good trip from the rail.

Race 7

• 8  Gracious Plenty  5/2

• 2  Dissident  3-1

• 4  Bibbo  7/2

Gracious Plenty looks to be in great shape for Pletcher and has the top last race figure.  Dissident makes a substantial drop. Last race was better than looked. Bibbo should be the speed in what looks to be a fairly paceless field.

Race 8

• 4  Gettysburg  5/2

• 2  Direct Message 7/2

• 9  Gift Box  7/2

Gettysburg ran a bang up race in the Arkansas Derby and wasn’t embarrassed by losses to stakes runners Destin, Collected and Creator. May be the class in this field. Direct Message ran evenly in the Lexington in his first race with winners. Figures are on the improve. Gift Box lost the Remsen to Moyhamen and has been off for Chad Brown since that race. Has a win at BEL and a win at the distance and Brown usually has his horses ready to roll off the layoff.

Race 9

• 3  Weekend Score  3-1

• 7  Wild Chatter  7/2

• 2  Candida  4-1

• 9  Dicey Flats  9/2

Lots of potential contenders in the finale. Weekend Score was impressive in her 2016 debut. Much more effective on the turf and gets a good switch to Castellano. Wild Chatter was claimed by Linda Rice after a win at $40K and she is 26% first off the claim. She will be tough off her best. Candida goes first time with winners after breaking her maiden in a $75K claimer. Pletcher should have her ready to roll. Dicey Flats may turn out to the the speed in this field Her first try on turf was impressive and if she repeats that race she’ll be tough to catch.