Race 1

• 6  Impressive Edge  3-1

• 3  El Talento  7/2

• 8  Ancient Warfare  4-1

Impressive Edge is the interesting horse here. He went off as the odds on choice last out on a sloppy CD track and flopped, although he was wide most of the way.  His breeding seems a little better than average for the turf and he is well bred for the distance. Asmussen is a solid 25% with 2nd time maidens. Deserves a second chance to show that he is worth $400K. El Talento goes for the always dangerous Pletcher/Velasquez combo. Pletcher isn’t nearly as proficient first time on the turf, but the horse is well bred for the turf and the distance. Ancient Warfare goes for the good trainer Mark Casse who is 14% with his debut runners. Excellent workout pattern.

Race 2

• 1A  Heaven’s Runaway  2-1

• 5  Cerro  5/2

• 6  Sam Sparkle 4-1

The entry had two strong horses entered, and while Heaven’s Runawaylooked more likely on the turf, he does have some successful dirt starts and I trust that DJ left the more likely winner in the race. Cerro scratched Thursday for this spot. In his last he was taken by high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro and is actually dropped for this run. Very dangerous. Sam Sparkle hasn’t won in a while but is usually somewhere close at the finish.

Race 3

• 1   Kahramani  2-1

• 6  Reckling  3-1

• 3 Tale of Silence  4-1

Kahramani fits Pletcher’s strength, a maiden 2-YO sprint. Nice steady workout pattern with no gaps since May. Reckling went for nearly 10 times his stud fee. Ricardo Santana has been riding very well at the meet. Tale of Silence is well bred for this sprint and Barklay Tagg is a sneaky 18% with first timers.

Race 4

• 2  Maniacal

• 5  It’s All Relevant

• 6  Uncle Vinny

Maniacal’s last got a monster number and he’s had an impressive bullet work since then. He’s got most of the early foot and although this is his first try with stakes runners he has a tremendous upside. It’s All Relevant was well enough thought of to start in the G2 Risen Star, and the switch to Johnny V should be very positive, especially considering he was aboard for his maiden victory. Uncle Vinny takes the blinkers off today. Has a win (via DQ) and a third in two graded stakes at SAR. Could be a surprise at a price.

Race 5

• 4  Deeply Undervalued

• 6  Uncle Gio

• 7  Caldera

Deeply Undervalued has a fairly deep closing style, but Chad Brown has him headed in the right direction and Irad Ortiz can’t hurt. A second at the distance. Uncle Gio has been in the vicinity in his last two, and is going second off a three month layoff. He didn’t move up much in the stretch last out, but he didn’t fade either. I like his chances at 10-1 ML. Caldera has a few more starts than I normally like to see in a MSW, but he seems a good prospect to hit the board.

Race 6

• 8  Esther the Queen  3-1

• 3  Somerset Sandy  7/2

• 1  Empress Jingu  4-1

Esther the Queen puts the blinkers back on after a race without them and drops back a half furlong. Hasn’t run badly at Saratoga in the past and has good tactical speed. Somerset Sandy was somewhat up against it last out and nearly won her in her debut race on this course last year. I like the potential at the odds. Empress Jingu looked good in her first with winners. Doesn’t have a turf start, but should be a part of the pace picture. Downside – regular pilot Castellano goes to the 10

Race 7

• 2  Flintshire  3/5

• 5  Grand Tito  5-1

• 4  Can’thelpbelieving  8-1

Flintshire is by far the best horse in the race. Period. It’s hard to imagine something that would keep him from winning.

Race 8

• 1  Captain Moss  7/2

• 5  Ray’s the Bar  4-1

• 7  Hunter O’Riley 5-1

I’m not exactly sure why Captain Moss is 10-1 ML . His figures are competitive, and while he hasn’t yet negotiated the distance, it looks like the farther he goes the better he’ll like it. Plus he looks like the lone front, which can be a big advantage in a longer race. Ray’s the Bar is the Chad Brown trainee and should negotiate the distance. His last two races are better than looked. Hunter O’Riley comes out of the same race as the second choice. He seems to be better on the turf than the dirt and has the look of a horse than can run all day.

Race 9

• 1  Anchor Down  5/2

• 3  Delta Bluesman  3-1

• 5  Holy Boss  4-1

Anchor Down comes out of the Met Mile where no horse was going to beat Frosted. Before that he won the G2 Westchester and has a win and a third at the sprint distance. Delta Bluesman comes out of a G2 sprint at GP and has a four race win streak going for high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Big ask for him today, but he’s at the top of his game. Holy Boss ran well in the G2 True North, and puts the blinkers on today.

Race 10

• 4  Destin  2-1

• 5  Governor Malibu  5/2

• 1  Creator  3-1

In the Jim Dandy I like Destin to get his revenge against Creator.  I’m hoping Castellano doesn’t engage in a blow your brains out duel with Laoban, grabs the lead turning for home and keeps the closer’s safe. Creator may benefit if there is a wild pace duel. Governor Malibu is certainly a quality horse, although he might be a hair behind Destin.

Race 11

• 10  Double Dose  3-1

• 2  Antebellum  4-1

• 3  Rain in Spain  5-1

Double Dose has a lot of work to do from the outside post. He stretches out today and adds blinkers. He seems to have benefitted from the move to MCL. Antebellum has been knocking at this level a while and looks to have reasonable prospects. Rain in Spain actually won at this level but was DQ’d. He came back and had a troubled start, compromising his chances. He’s better than 20-1.

Travel day for me. I’m on my way to the Haskell at Monmouth so just an abbreviated set of picks today.

Race 1. Mesojet is 8-1 ML and isn’t likely to get bet much below that with Noble and True in the race. A few positives on the horse. First, he drops from MSW to claimers for this race. Second, you can pitch his last race since he never broke or got into it. Prior to that he had a closing second on a sloppy track at Pimlico that gave him a competitive figure. Third, he gets Jose Ortiz as the pilot and that is a big positive.

Race 2. Sneaky Fudge Face is 10-1 ML. She’s dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks after showing speed at seven furlongs downstate. She should enjoy the cutback in distance.

Race5. Three to Thirteen makes a few changes today. He puts blinkers on  and has been gelded since his last. He picks up Irad for the mount.

Race 1

• 4  Mesojet  3-1

• 7  Noble and True  3-1

• 9  Glennevan  5-1

Race 2

• 4  Sneaky Fudge Face  7/2

• 6  Tough Temper  4-1

• 5  Maybry’s Con  9/2

• 1  Champagne Therapy  5-1

Race 3

• 7  Half Irish  5-2

• 8  Grey Stark  3-1

• 6  Penjade  7-2

Race 4

• 6  Routabout  3-1

• 2  Singleton  7/2

• 5  Huntington Drive  4-1

• 4  One More Round  4-1

Race 5

• 10  Three to Thirteen  7/2

• 1  Speightful Kitten  4-1

• 9  Jo’s Bold Cat  5-1

Race 6

• 4  Miss Amalita  7/2

• 10  Natalie Victoria  7/2

• 6  Zeven  4-1

• 7  Sun and Moon 4-1

Race 7

• 9  Cause for Surprise  3-1

• 4  Grassady  7-2

• 8  Bluegrass Prevails  4-1

• 1  Saratoga Giro  5-1

Race 8

• 5  Daring Duchess  5/2

• 3  Royal Temptress  4-1

• 10  Sunset Knoll  5-1

Race 9

• 1  Connect  7/5

• 4  Gift Box 9/5

• 3  Ready Dancer  5-1

Race 10

• 2  Gunlock  7/2

• 1  American Road  4-1

• 11  Strong  9/2

• 10  It’s a Given  5-1

Race 1

• 4  Zubi Zubi Zu  2-1

• 7  Bargaining Table  3-1

• 5  Moon Medal  3-1

• 1  Comet Sixty Two  4-1

Zubi Zubi Zu comes off a win at CD at the OC$60K level. Has a liking for the distance and tops the field with her last race figure. Bargaining Table has a second on the SAR turf and is coming off two good second place finishes. Seems to be able to spring them together. Moon Medal ships in from the Midwest for Mike Maker. This race lacks obvious speed, and since she’s been sprinting she may be part of the early pace which gives her much better outs today. Comet Sixty Two has a close up third at SAR and is coming off a win for $25K at BEL.

Race 2

• 3  Not So Quiet Man  7/2

• 6  House of Friends  4-1

• 4  Irish Hope  4-1

• 7  Colonel Andy  5-1

Not So Quiet Man comes off a good 5 1/2F race at MTH  at the MSW level. He looked good last time he was in with $40K state-breds but is one of a number of horses with a figure that can win. Tepid choice. House of Friends made a nice improvement when dropped to this level and the turf last time. Will probably go favorite and with some improvement could be a winner. Irish Hope was another that improved when dropped into this level. Seems to have taken to the turf sprint. Colonel Andy has a similar look to the horses mentioned above – improvement when dropped in price and moved to the turf. Frankly, this race could not have a surprise winner.

Race 3

• 8  Benevolence  2-1

• 9  Samadi Sky  5/2

• 3  Only You  4-1

Benvolence ran well enough to win last out and has a field topping figure. Deserving favorite. Samadi Sky also ran well in his second start and has a figure just a little behind the top choice. Still, improvement is always a possibility with young horses. Only You nearly won at the mile distance on the dirt last out, but showed enough on the turf in his first start to get consideration.

Race 4

• 4  Flash Trading  5/2

• 6  Scout Leader  5/2

• 3  Shadow Rider  7/2

Flash Trading ships in for the always worth considering Albert Stall. His last work was sharp and Stall is 37% with his new charges. Scout Leader is the likely favorite. In his last five races he hasn’t been worse than second, but he is unlikely to be value. Shadow Rider won impressively at a lower price last out and was grabbed by Contessa. Prior to that he was competitive at this level and should be at his best today.

Race 5

• 6  Song for the Soul  7/2

• 9  Hampton’s Holiday  4-1

• 2  Giant Rocks  9/2

Song for the Soul showed a lot of speed last out, but may be up against it going against the boys today. Still, the angle should produce decent odds. Hampton’s Holiday goes for RuRod who has done well with his first timers. Giant Rocks goes third time for Mike Maker. This is probably a make or break start.

Race 6

• 5  Verger  7/2

• 3  St. Louie  4-1

• 1/1A  Liberal Spin/Completely Bonkers  5-1

This race is wide open with no horse really sticking out. Verger didn’t get the easiest trip last out and still managed to turn in a decent race. St. Louie won last out and was snagged by Mike Maker. He’s jumping up in price but has the figures to compete. The Gary Contessa entry looks competitive in here with Liberal Spin having the best last race figure.

Race 7

• 5  Proven Commodity  2-1

• 3  Nubin Ridge  4-1

• 8  Cerro  9/2

• 1A  Fabulous Kid  5-1

Proven Commodity is one of the speed horses in a race full of speed horses. He looked good in his first out of 2016 and seems to have a lot of space for improvement. Nubin Ridge comes out of a a G3 sprint and takes a drop in price today. Not a high win percentage, but he’s with the right group today. Cerro has the highest recent figure and was claimed last out by high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Seems to have conquered some physical issues and has been looking  better in 2016. Fabulous Kid has had a good prep schedule for this and should be at the top of his game.

Race 8

• 6  Swear by It  7/2

• 4  Havana Moon  4-1

• 1  Guilty Twelve  5-1

• 8  Give Us A Reason  5-1

Swear By It puts the blinkers on and gets a jockey change to Carmouche. His two 2016 starts have been good, and he’s at a level that may get him to the winner’s circle. Havana Moon didn’t make an impact in the G2 New York but he seems to have adapted well to North America and I believe he’ll show well today. Guilty Twelve came from Europe to break his maiden at PID, ran well in his first race with winners and looks to take a big step forward today. Give Us A Reason has looked good since moving from the hurdles to the flat and looks competitive in this race.

Race 9

• 3  Ostrolenka  7/2

• 8  Drama King  4-1

• 5  Weekend Hideaway  5-1

Ostrolenka finally broke through at the OC$20K at MTH last out and looks to string two in a row. Javier Castellano gets aboard and two in a row is within reach. Drama King has regularly been with state bred stakes horses this year and should be coming well in the stretch. Weekend Hideaway is riding a two race winning streak and other than the G3 Mr. Prospector has been consistently competitive.

Race 10

• 1/1A  Papa’s Missile  3-1

• 10  Reckless Humor  7/2

• 9  Spun Copper  4-1

• 6  Ragazza Piu’ Bella  5-1

The tenth is your typical low level, NW2L claimer, meaning about anything can happen. The Gary Sciacca entry looks toughest here, but Reckless Humor and Spun Copper both have positives to recommend.

Race 2

• 6  Massena  3-1

• 8  Sebonack  7/2

• 5  Saratoga Charlie  4-1

Very tough day at the Spa. In the second race the favorite Massena looks to have the best figures of the horses with a start. He showed improved speed at the mile distance last out before fading and drops back to six and a half today. Sebonack makes his 2016 debut for Mike Maker who is 21% off the long layoff. He’s been gelded over the winter, and drops to the MCL ranks. Saratoga Charlie should be the one to catch.

Race 3

• 5  Conscience  3-1

• 3  To the Victor  4-1

• 2  Swivel  9/2

Conscience has been knocking at the door and drops in claiming price to gain the win. Should be the front runner and the one to catch. To the Victor drops well down in price. Definitely needed his last.

Race 4

• 6  Going for Broke  8/5

• 2  Jules N Rome  5/2

• 5  Rachel’s Temper  7/2

Going for Broke was an impressive winner last out and looks to have the dominant figure against this field. Jules N Rome did not seem to relish the BEL mud last out but prior to that he was a strong winner at this price. Jose Ortiz takes the mount. Rachel’s Temper flopped on the turf last out but clearly favors a fast dirt.

Race 5

• 1  Littlefirefighter  3-1

• 4  Love and Lemons  3-1

• 5  Alkenetta  4-1

• 9  Conquest Bad Girl  9/2

I’m favoring the first timers in here. Littlefirefighter goes for Linda Rice who is decent with first time two year olds. Workout pattern brief but useful. Love and Lemons is by good turf sire Lemondrop Kid. Not a lot of info on trainer Troy Wismer, but I really like the workout pattern. I think he will be the value play. Alkenetta is sent out by the always dangerous combo of Pletcher and Veleasquez. Conquest Bad Girl had a troubled trip last time out and could be the winner with a clean run.

Race 6

• 2  Chase Motto  5/2

• 5  Theatric  5/2

• 4  Blenheim Prince  7/2

This pretty much looks like a formful affair. Blenheim Prince may be as good as his ML odds, but I’m not convinced. I’ll look more at the top two.

Race 7

• 1  Asset Inflation  3-1

• 11  Wicked Freud  4-1

• 9  Polar Axis  5-1

Asset inflation looks best here, especially after the scratch of Captain Gaughen. Has a win at the distance and at SAR. Wicked Freud has been competitive at this level. Polar Axis just finished in front of the top choice and has shown some liking for the distance and SAR.

Race 8

• 2  Disco Chick  5/2

• 1  Paulassilverlining  5/2

• 4  Haveyougoneaway  7/2

While Paulassilverlining looks stong in this spot, I’m going to give the not to Disco Chick. She just missed in a stakes at DEL and she’s shown herself to be a consistent at high levels.

Race 9

• 6  Spectacular Me  7/2

• 3  Tent City  4-1

• 4  Justa Lady  5-1

With the scratch of Rumble Doll this race became wide open. Spectacular Me is a horse that likes to win and seems especially adept at the turf sprint. Tent City is running through her conditions and has yet to be beaten. Jason Servis hasn’t missed being in the money yet this season. Justa Lady should be the best speed and with the scratches has a much better chance.

Race 10 

• 6  Tambourin  3-1

• 8  Sly Tom  4-1

• 5  Mambo At the Gym  4-1

• 9  Irish Cat  5-1

This race is wide open. Tambourin may have suffered the so-called Euro Bounce last out, although he was jumping up some in price. He’s back at a better level today. Sly Tom has been steady at this price. Mambo At the Gym is another with ability to finish in the money. Irish Cat may be the most interesting of the group. If you toss out his last race on the yielding turf, and his race on the inner dirt, his figure fits this field. If he throws in his sharpest race, he’s competitive.

Unfortunately, my keyboard developed some sort of bug so that not all the letters work, making it all but impossible to type something coherent. I was forced to use what was available late on a Saturday night – my smart phone. Given the time it takes to type anything lengthy, I had to dispense with the full analysis section, but I will point out a few horses I’m interested in today.

Imslopokerodriguez ran a monster race last time, dominating a field in a very fast time for the price. He’s got a start at SAR from 2015. In that race he had trouble at the start but ran evenly. I’m betting he takes to the SAR dirt.

Dauphine Russe was shuffled back on the backstretch in her last, was blocked entering the stretch, finally found a running lane but checked close to the wire while between horses, losing it all by a neck. She may have notched a clear win without the trouble, and even though her last race figure doesn’t look as competitive as some, she’s clearly not over her head at the level and should be the danger with a clean run.

If Captain’s Affair and Coalport come in together, I don’t think you’ll need to worry about having a winning day. Captain’s Affair ships in from Laurel where he’s been running in OC$40K races, likely with better horses than he’ll face here. He’s 12-1 on the ML and I can’t imagine he won’t stay high odds. Coalport has been off a while, but Mike Maker is good with layoff horses. He won a G3 last year (albeit at HOU) and has been running with lower level stakes company consistently. Jose Ortiz takes the mount and that is a positive.  Make no mistake – this is an anything can happen race, which is exactly why it’s a good race to take a swing for the fences.

Even Bette was at least 16 lengths out of the lead heading into the turn, closed steadily to be only about 11 out entering the stretch, found her stride and flew by all but the top two, just missing the place. She’s 12-1 ML and if she runs a little more strategically, she’s competitive in here.

Kitzys Rocket  missed by a nose at this level downstate. She has the best last race figure and the best lifetime figure. At 6-1 she has a lot of upside. Jose Ortiz stays for the ride. It’s another race where whichever horse you like, you should get decent odds.

Race 1

• 1A  Imslopokerodriguez  6/5

• 10  Chelios  7/2

• 4  Gambler’s Ghost  4-1

• 8  Storm Pursuit  5-1

Race 2

• 6  Angelo’s Ashes  7/2

• 8  Teresa Z  7/2

• 7  Price too High  9/2

Race 3

• 1  Evolution  3-1

• 6  Portando  3-1

• 4  Bird Song  7/2

Race 4

• 8  Grassaria  5/2

• 2  Askfor Forgiveness  5/2

• 4  Barbie On a Budget  4-1

Race 5

• 2  Dauphine Russe  2-1

• 4  Katie O.  3-1

• 7  Sunrise Kitty  7/2

Race 6

• 2  Church Social  3-1

• 8  More Than Kisses  7/2

• 10  River City Lady  4-1

Race 7

• 4  Captain’s Affair 3-1

• 2  Coalport  7/2

• 7   Abtaal  4-1

• 10  Farhaan  5-1

Race 8

• 4  Even Bette  3-1

• 9  Day After Day  4-1

• 11  Sabrina Ballerina  9/2

• 6  Picco Uno  5-1

Race 9

• 9  Kitzy’s Rocket  3-1

• 4  Sympathy  7/2

• 10  Kitten’s Roar  4-1

• 1  Ginger N Rye  5-1

Race 10

• 1  Songbird  6/5

• 2  Carina Mia  7/5

• 4  Weep No More  8-1

Race 11

• 2  Lotta Gold  4-1

• 9  Yowl  9/2

• 4  Roman’s Paradise  5-1

Race 1

• 3  Money Changer  7/2

• 1  Zamjara  7/2

• 6  Roman Revival  9/2

Money Changer has two seconds and a third on the SAR dirt, adds blinkers and a new jockey in Castellano. Johnny V probably had his choice, and if that means anything, it might be that he thinks Zamjara is the better horse. Both Pletcher horses are dropping well down the price ladder, but I’ll give a long look to the one with likely the better odds. Roman Revival has the advantage of speed, takes the blinkers off and gets a top pilot in Irad. Has to be respected as the one to catch.

Race 2

• 2  Conquest Sure Shot  7/2

• 1  Master Merion  4-1

• 5  Oscar Performance  5-1

• 7  Our Stormin Norman  5-1

Since I’m publishing before scratches, in some of the races I’ll make four selections to account for one of the contenders getting left off. Conquest Sure Shot broke slowly in his maiden race but showed good interest once the race started. That race was pretty quick and he may show a bit more speed today. Master Merion set the fractions in the race mentioned above and looks like the one to catch. If he rates kindly, he’s double dangerous. Oscar Performance is by top turf sire Kitten’s Joy and while the distance is a heavy lift for first timers, the workouts look like he might be the real deal. Our Stormin Norman ran well first time at CD for dangerous trainer Mark Casse. Blame does very well with his first time turf runners.

Race 3

• 2  Random Walk  8/5

• 4  Bronson  3-1

• 5  Bitumen  3-1

This edition of the Sanford Stakes features the well regarded Random Walk. That horse ran easy as he pleased first out and looks to be the fastest to the front. Pletcher had a winner with a MTH shipper yesterday and brings Bronson today. His numbers might be a little lower than some in here, but he should sprint well and his style looks versatile. Bitumen worked hard to get the lead in his debut, but once he did, he was an easy winner. Legitimate chances today.

Race 4

• 8  Come as You Are  3-1

• 7  Onlytheshadowknows  7/2

• 4  Tree Top Lover  4-1

Although the experienced maidens (Condominium and Chomsky) finish in the money often, I’m leaving them out of the win slot. Instead, I’ll go with Come as You Are dropping out of straight maidens to the $40K level. He gets an interesting switch to 7-pound apprentice J Torres who has won one race in two tries for Wesley Ward. Ward is 34% off the long layoff and the horse had a bullet at five furlongs a couple of weeks ago at KEE. Interesting prospect. Onlytheshadowknows is another dropping from straight maidens. Should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs. Tree Top Lover showed big improvement when dropped to MCL. He was taken by Jacobson and although DJ isn’t as prolific first off the claim, he still has talent.

Race 5

• 2  Altar Boy  3-1

• 5  Big Rock  7/2

• 10  Cort  4-1

• 3  Canadian River  9/2

Altar Boy has improved on the turf and may have run a better race had he not bobbled at the start. I think he is motoring in the stretch at the shortened distance.  Big Rock gets a switch to Castellano and Clement is 21% moving route to sprint on the turf. Top figure gets him home on top. Cort  has a win and two seconds in his last three and could be good value here. Canadian River ran well at this level last out and Johnny V stays for the ride.

Race 6

• 2  Pretty Boy Flash  5/2

• 1  Conquest Reformo  3-1

• 8  One Liner  4-1

• 6  Forge  4-1

Pretty Boy Flash had all sorts of trouble first out but showed interest and that is a positive.  $375K purchase off a $4,500 stud fee.  Conquest Reformo took a while to get going last time but got into the race late. One Liner goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez and at the Spa that is something to always keep an eye on. Forge goes for the other first time specialist, Chad Brown. Some sharp works.

Race 7

• 5  Hothersal  3-1

• 2  Inordinate  3-1

• 8  Ascend  4-1

• 4  Taghleeb  5-1

Hothersal broke poorly last out but in the G3 before that he missed by only a neck. Off that race he is far more competitive then his 15-1 ML suggests. Inordinate has a win and a third at this level since moving to North America and he seems to be cycling to his best form. Ascend has a stout closing kick and hasn’t been worse than second in his last six starts. Taghleeb is another far back closer but given his pace figures he may be the surprise in this group.

Race 8

• 7  Rappel  3-1

• 1/1A  Wyeth/Catapult  3-1

• 2  Our Way  4-1

• 5  Gios Calling  5-1

Race 9

• 2  Cadeyrn  5/2

• 3  Conviction  3-1

• 4  My Man Sam  3-1

• 1  Gray Sky  4-1

Cadeyrn flopped in the mud in the Sir Barton, but ran well at this level last out. Should be out prompting the pace. Conviction comes out of the same race and ran well first time with winners. My Man Sam comes out of a couple of G1’s, and while he was nowhere in the Derby, he ran on well for second in the Blue Grass. Perhaps overrated at 8/5 ML, but dangerous because we haven’t yet seen his best. I’m not a big fan of Gray Sky, mainly because other than the Matt Winn he hasn’t been competitive in graded races, but he may have a class edge here.

Race 10

• 2  Miss Temple City  5/2

• 4  Wekeela  7/2

• 10  Isabella Sings  4-1

• 6  Dacita  9/2

This renewal of the Diana puts together a very competitive field. Miss Temple City has a win, two seconds and a third in her last four G1 races, and didn’t embarrass herself at Ascot. Strong contender. Wekeela has a couple of seconds in G1’s since coming to America, and seems to be getting stronger. Will be making a big change moving to the SAR grass. Isabella Sings has the advantage of being the speed here and has run well in her last two Graded events. Pace may make this race. Dacita has also been running well in graded events and Irad stays for the ride. Figures say she could hang with this group.

Race 11

• 2  Winter Springs  3-1

• 1  The Imposter  7/2

• 10  Dream Man  4-1

• 3  Aripeka  9/2

Very difficult race on paper. I’d look to spread around, especially with the top four selections.

There you have it. Day 2 at the Spa

What a difficult first card at Saratoga. I’d be shocked to see a lot of favorites today, so I’ve made sure to identify a few price horses. My general approach is to go slowly the first part of the meet and pick up as the meet goes on.

Race 1

• 5  Thirst for Glory  3-1

• 3  More Zen Tea  7/2

• 6  Beyond the Green  4-1

• 1  Clifton Pleasure  5-1

Thirst for Glory fits well at the level and had a close-up third at SAR as a two year old. Breeding suggests the 9 furlongs should be no issue, and his regular running style should be effective here. More Zen Tea should be close to the front. He has a win at a mile seventy, and is better than 50% first or second in 45 lifetime races. Contessa and Leparoux clicked for one win in four races last year, and although he doesn’t have a high percentage first off the claim, this horse should be coming to the race in nice condition. Beyond the Green looked like he needed his last and should show better today. Clifton Pleasure ran a huge number last out and should have had plenty of time to recover.

Race 2

• 3  Tizza Temper  7/2

• 8  Cha Cha Heels  4-1

• 6  Bree’s Got Heart  4-1

Tizza Temper is by Tiznow out of a Tapit mare and while the workouts are nothing special, I like their regularity and the fact that J Englehart often uses Saez when he’s serious. Cha Cha Heels goes for RuRod and Irad who are a high percentage combination. Workouts look like typical RuRod. Bree’s Got Heart has a shorter work pattern, which I usually see as a positive, and one sharp work early in the sequence, which I like to see. Low profile connections should ensure good odds.

Race 3

• 5  John Eddie  3-1

• 2  Chipit  3-1

• 6  Roll Tide Roll  4-1

John Eddie was claimed off a solid win at $16K and should be the one to catch. Chipit comes in from MTH where he has done well at the OC$30K level. Perhaps the price drop will get him over the top. Roll Tide Roll was snagged last out by Jason Servis who is 37% first off the claim. He’s got a second in two tries over the SAR dirt.

Race 4

• 2  Sentiero Italia  9/5

• 1  Distorted Beauty  3-1

• 7  Selenite  7/2

Sentiero Italia has seen nothing but G1 and G2 races since last July and finally drops to an OC$80K race. Makes his 2016 debut and McLaughlin is decent off the long layoff. Rosario has been a good earner on the McLaughlin stock. Distorted Beauty goes third start off a layoff and seems to be improving with each start. Selenite raced well at this level last out and has a win and a third on the SAR turf.

Race 5

• 2  Sense of Beauty  3-1

• 5  Siralen  7/2

• 10  Candida  4-1

• 12  Annie Rocks  5-1

Sense of Beauty takes the blinkers off ran fairly well first time on the turf and Pletcher gives her another shot at a lower level today. Pletcher and Johnny V are a tough combo at the Spa. Siralen ran decently in a minor stakes at CBY last out but before that had a good second at the FG. Looking for an early upset. Candida makes a substantial drop for Pletcher. She’s got three in the money in five starts on the turf. Annie Rocks should be able to clear to the front and might be the one to catch.

Race 6

• 1  My Sweet Stella/Jumby Bay   5/2

• 7  Special Risk  4-1

• 6  Torrent  9/2

Only one of the Pletcher entry of My Sweet Stella and Jumby Bay will be going, but both look like they have outs in this race. Breeding and workouts look good for both. Special Risk is one of three with a start and looks best of the horses with experience. Torrent managed to attract Jose Ortiz who should compete for the riding title this year. Blame is a high percentage sire with first time two year olds. A fast work on June 19 ups her stock.

Race 7

• 5  Apologynotaccepted  5/2

• 1  Anna Rae  7/2

• 2  Takrees  4-1

Apologynotaccepted showed good speed in her last two outs and cuts back in distance today. Given her 16 length maiden win, she could dominate this field. Anna Rae won by daylight in her debut last year at this track, and wasn’t embarrassed by her finish in the Frizette. Couple of good races this year and seems to be in a reasonable spot today. Takrees just missed in the Cicada and is another in a softer spot.

Race 8

• 7  Platinum Spark  3-1

• 5  Made Me Shiver  7/2

• 1  Olive Branch  4-1

• 2  Inspired Flight  4-1

Platinum Spark looks strong winning her maiden and came back with a sharp workout six days ago. Should be contesting the pace today. Made Me Shiver should adapt well at the six furlong distance and ran very well to defeat a decent field of maidens at CD. Olive Branch came from off the pace to win going away and looks like sprinter breeding top and bottom. Inspired Flight has a nice series of works and Edgar Prado comes in for the ride.

Race 9

• 11  Tin Type Gal  3-1

• 5  Ancient Secret  3-1

• 1  Thundering Sky  4-1

• 10  Try Your Luck  4-1

Tin Type Gal is a bit hidden in this race. As a two year old she won the prestigious Miss Grillo and then came out this year and ran a lifetime top in her first start of the year in the Wild Appleseed. I like the potential for her to improve today. Ancient Secret won the Wild Appleseed a month ago and looks to keep her undefeated record intact. Should adapt well to the slight jump in distance. Thundering Sky has only been out of the money twice in eight starts and even in those she was close. Just missed in the aforementioned Wild Appleseed last out and has to be considered a main contender today. Try Your Luck showed well in the G3 Regret last out. Is cross entered at IND so may pass this spot.

Race 10

• 5  Market Strength  3-1

• 1  Silver Romeo  4-1

• 11  He’s One Wild Dude  5-1

Market Strength takes a substantial drop in price for Chad Brown who is effective with short layoffs and turf horses. Silver Romeo made a good 2016 debut in a full field of $40K maidens. Figure was a lifetime top, a very positive sign. He’s One Wild Dude looks like he has enough speed to clear from the outside, but the post position is what kept me from rating him higher. His last race figure tops the field.

Race 1

• 4  Young Anna Lee  8/5

• 1  Time Squared  5/2

• 3  Lilikoi  7/2

Young Anna Lee looks like the pacesetter. Has a tendency to be in the money instead of the win, but looks like she’s got a soft spot here. Time Squared and Lilikoi have had multiple chances and while they can’t be discounted, they look more like in the money sorts.

Race 2

• 9  Uncle Chester  5/2

• 10  Two Down One to Go  5/2

• 1  Leaveemathegate  4-1

• 3  Ordinaire  4-1

This is a tough race to call. Uncle Chester has the best last race figures and should appreciate the distance cutback. Two Down One to Go has shown speed at the route and is another that should appreciate the seven furlong distance. Leaveemathegate and Ordinaire both have legitimate chances.

Race 3

• 5  Spectacular Flash  3-1

• 4  Warriors Diva  7/2

• 2  Lil Renegade  4-1

It’s another competitive race. It looks like it lacks any serious speed, so Spectacular Flash gets the nod. Warriors Diva and Lil Renegade both come off wins at lesser levels, but the number say they are contenders.

Race 4

• 1  Majestic Jessica  9/5

• 4  Shotgun Love  2-1

• 5  My Won Love  4-1

Majestic Jessica won comfortably at this level in April. Should be prompting the pace. Shotgun Love didn’t seem to care for the slop but prior to that was competitive with better. My Won Love won at the level two back and should contend today.

Race 5

• 6  Lead by Example  3-1

• 4  Vino Blanco  4-1

• 7  Courageous Colonel  5-1

A number of these horses are coming out of the same June 16 affair and they were all close to each other. Lead by Example was close up at the finish and adds blinkers today. Vino Blanco makes his 2016 debut in this MCL event after racing last year at the MSW level. He was gelded over the winter and if he is in shape he should compete.

Race 6

• 5  Chang’s Secret  3-1

• 1  Forever in Love  3-1

• 6  Fearthefalcon  7/2

Chang’s Secret moves over to state-breds for today’s run. He’s got the highest last race figure and gets Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Forever in Love is co-choice. He made a good 2016 debut at this level. Fearthefalcon has a lot of starts but he figures suggest he’s an in the money threat.

Race 7

• 8  Kitty Madness  3-1

• 5  Table for Six  4-1

• 7  Queen of the Castle  9/2

I could make a case for most of the horses in this race. Kitty Madness nipped Queen of the Castle last out and earned the top last race figure. Table for Six almost won his 2016 debut and comes back with blinkers on. Queen of the Castle did not have the best trip last time and could be a winner with a better trip today.

Race 8

• 8  Gioia Stella  3-1

• 6  On Leave  7/2

• 9  She Doesn’t Mind  7/2

• 2  J La Tache  5-1

Another race with a bunch of potential winners. Gioia Stella ran decently in defeat in the Wonder Again and is back at the OC$80 level today. On Leave comes off a nice maiden win in her 2016 debut and looks like a major contender today. She Doesn’t Mind is the Chad Brown entrant and that is enough to put her in the mix. J La Tache is one of the speed horses and that makes her dangerous.

Race 9

• 1  Zenna  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 4  Paz the Bourbon  5/2

• 6  Wilburnmoney  5/2

Zenna and Wilburnmoney ran 1-2 in the last race and I like Zenna to turn the tables today. Paz the Bourbon came from the clouds last out and earned the top number doing it. Frankly, any of the top three could win this race.

Race 10

• 5  Cav  3-1

• 4  Uptown Joe  4-1

• 1  Refer  5-1

Cav makes only his third start and looked good in his 2016 debut with the addition of blinkers. Uptown Joe and Refer both have double digit starts and look more likely in the verticals.

Race 1

• 2  Escape to the Moon  5/2

• 5  Second City  3-1

• 1  Royal Squeeze  3-1

This is a competitive looking race. Escape to the Moon ran evenly in a state-bred stake at FL a month and a half ago. Prior to that he ran a good one at this class level. The only question is whether seven furlongs is his best distance, although he does have a win, place and show at the distance. He’ll be the pace factor and that makes him dangerous. Second City has been claimed twice in his last two, and fits the level well. He’s got a win at the distance and he has a proclivity to find the winners circle. Royal Squeeze checked badly in his last race but prior to that was competitive at this level.

Race 2

• 4  Indygita  7/2

• 2  Emerald Pond  4-1

• 6  Barrel of Dreams  9/2

Indygita jumped up to this level last out and ran competitively. Seems to like the distance and BEL. Emerald Pond is another taking a few steps up the ladder but her figures suggest she’s in the mix. Barrel of Dreams comes off a win in a NW2L race and should be the one prompting the pace.

Race 3

• 4  Runaway Lute  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 3  Manifest Destiny  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 5  Silver Mission  3-1

Two horses to watch in the same race and they both look strong. Runaway Lute ran under mild urging, extending his lead steadily to win by 12. Manifest Destiny went right to the front, was challenged most of the way around the track but drew away strongly. Silver Mission is 2 for 2 including a win in the Tremont. A small but competitive field.

Race 4

• 1  Mini Sala  3-1

• 5  T R Crew  7/2

• 7  Howell Mountain  7/2

Mini Sala had a little bit of trouble at the start last out and back up a bit in the stretch, but he’s very well bred and was a pricey yearling purchase. Could be the value in the race. T R Crew just missed last out and has a good running style. Howell Mountain seems to be improving for Pletcher who does well off the short layoff.

Race 5

• 9  Same Kinda Crazy  2-1

• 6  C d’Cat  5/2

• 3  Sauvignon  3-1

Same Kinda Crazy finally broke her maiden on her fifth try but had been competitive up to that point. Should be at the top of her form, has shown a liking for BEL and can make it two in a row at the distance. C d’Cat ran well in her first out of 2016 and that was a lifetime top for her. That bodes well in this field. Sauvignon jumps up after a MCL$40K, but her numbers give her a shot.

Race 6

• 5  Nuffsaid Nuffsaid  9/5

• 2  Distinctive Lady  3-1

• 6  De Wildcat Girl  4-1

Nuffsaid Nuffsaid lost her chance at the start and takes a drop to $25K today. Should be prompting the pace and on her best looks to be tops in this field. Distinctive Lady has almost twice as many seconds as wins, but she looks solid in the verticals. De Wildcat Girl jumps up off an impressive win at $12,500. She’s good at the distance and on the BEL dirt.

Race 7

• 8  Asscher  5/2

• 5  Fly Swift  3-1

• 7  Lull  7/2

Asscher lost all chance at the start but made a strong close to earn a decent figure. With a sharper break she could be tops today. Fly Swift has a good workout pattern for Clement. She’s well bred for the turf and the distance. Lull is by top turf sire War Front and a Tiznow mare. Another that looks to have been well prepped for the debut by Clement.

Race 8

• 1  Force the Pass  6/5

• 2  Tapitation  3-1

• 4  King Kreesa  4-1

Force the Pass has been running a steady diet of Graded stakes. He’s 7 of 7 in the money at the distance and 2 of 2 on the BEL turf. Will be tough to beat in this spot. Tapitation has five wins and four seconds in eleven starts, including a state-bred stake. Some nice positives in this spot. King Kreesa just keeps going at age 7 and is the defending champion in this race. Always tries hard and cannot be ignored.

Race 9

• 6  Saturday Appeal  3-1

• 9  Street Chief  7/2

• 4  Point Hope  4-1

Saturday Appeal nearly won at this level two back and didn’t look bad jumping up to a statebred NW1X. If he runs back to the penultimate effort he looks tops. Street Chief makes his BEL debut off some middling efforts at IND and CD. Has a win at a much better level at OP in January. Brad Cox is a high percentage trainer and should be respected here. Point Hope is another that hasn’t raced well at higher levels but has a win against much better as recently as February. Part of this ambiguous race picture.

Race 10

• 5  Subtle Lady  3-1

• 8  Electrified  7/2

• 6  Irish Actor  4-1

Subtle Lady lost the rider at the start last out, gets a switch to Johnny V today. Linda Rice is very good second off the layoff. Electrified ran well first time out last June and returns to the races at the MCL level. Debut race showed decent potential and if Weaver has her in shape she should be a factor. Irish Actor puts the blinkers on today in an effort to get some focus. Rice is 32% blinkers on.