Opinions

The Continuing Saga of Turf Paradise

Well, Turf Paradise didn’t take to Twitter to complain about the story in the Arizona Republic. They turned to America’s daily paper, USA today.

The bottom line from Turf Paradise’s perspective: Tribal casinos and Arizona’s unfair gambling policies are to blame for any problems Arizona racing has.

To be fair, Turf Paradise has a point. There are 23 casinos in the state of Arizona, and four significant casinos within 28 miles of the racetrack, including Fort McDowell, Talking Stick (Casino Arizona), Wild Horse Pass and the one Turf Paradise has pointed to as a major impediment, The Desert Diamond  Casino, owned by the Tohono O’odham Nation, 11 miles from the track.

Let’s go through some of the history of that casino. In 2002, state voters approved a compact between Arizona and Indian tribes limiting the number of casinos and gaming devices in the state. The agreement essentially gave Native American tribes exclusive rights to the Arizona gambling industry. Among the more  significant requirements:

  • A maximum of 18,158 slot machines in the State, including transfer agreements. Currently, there are about 15,390 slot machines.
  • A maximum of 1,301 slot machines in any one casino. Slot machine wager limit of $29 for most tribes.
  • A maximum of 3,318 blackjack and poker tables in the State.
  • A combined maximum of 119 blackjack and poker tables in any one casino and bet limits for poker and blackjack.
  • A maximum of 43 casinos in the State. That includes a combined maximum of 29 casinos for gaming tribes that had casinos at the time the Compact took effect in 2003. It also includes a combined maximum of 14 casinos for non-gaming tribes that didn’t have casinos in 2003. If a tribe leases its slot machine rights to another tribe, which many have done, then the number of casinos the first tribe can operate is reduced.

In 2009, Tohono O’odham announced its plans to build a casino and resort on unincorporated county land they bought at 95th and Northern Avenues, a parcel surrounded by the City of Glendale . This caused some consternation in the City of Glendale, especially since the tribe didn’t have a reservation anywhere near Glendale.

Of course, there was some fine print in federal law. When the federal government built the Painted Rock Dam on the Gila River to protect non-Indian farmers, the dam caused flooding in the Tohono O’odham’s Gila River community, rendering 9,880 acres of unusable. A federal law in 1986 allowed the tribe to purchase replacement land in unincorporated areas and apply to have it designated as a reservation.

The Tohono O’odham tribe decided 135 of those acres should be at 95th and Northern Avenues. Who could have figured the federal law to make reservations whole would result in an enclave within a city becoming a Native American reservation?

By July 2010, the  Department of the Interior agreed to designate the land the Tohono O’odham purchased as reservation territory, based on the 1986 law.  This is where the story gets good.

In November of 2010 the Gila River Indian Community sued the Department of the Interior, saying the department did not consider whether the land was eligible for gaming. Glendale joined the suit, arguing the land should not be taken into trust because it was surrounded by the city. Glendale also tried to quash the casino by lobbying the state to pass legislation that would allow Glendale to annex the Tohono O’odham Nation’s land, making it ineligible for reservation status. In February 2011 Governor Jan Brewer signed the legislation. The Tohono naturally sued.

Two weeks later Arizona, the Gila River and the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian communities sued the Tohono O’odham, alleging the tribe’s plans violated the 2002 Arizona Gaming Compact passed by the citizens of the state. They argued the compact implicitly capped the number of metro-Phoenix casinos. Reading the specific elements of the compact, that argument seemed to be a stretch, but it turns out the feds had bitten off more than Arizona wanted to chew. Not unexpectedly, both tribes joining in the lawsuit owned casinos in the Valley.

By July 2011 a federal judge issued rulings in favor of the Tohono O’odham on both lawsuits, the Department of Interior and annexation cases. The state and the tribes that had filed the suit appealed to the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Yes, that 9th Circuit Court of Appeals.

But the state and the tribes had another card to play. In 2012 they got Rep. Trent Franks  to sponsor a bill to keep the Tohono O’odham from opening a casino on its West Valley land but the bill died in the Senate. Meanwhile, in May 2013 the 9th Circuit asked the Department of Interior to reissue its ruling on the Tohono O’odham’s reservation status, with deeper explanation.

In November 2013 Representative Franks once again got the U.S. House to pass legislation aimed at blocking the tribe’s Glendale casino. This measure banned tribes that take land into their reservations after April 2013 from opening gambling sites, putting a sunset date of 2027 in the bill. That bill also failed to clear the Senate.

Meanwhile, the 9th Circuit agreed to postpone the compact case until the U.S. Supreme Court had ruled on a Michigan lawsuit. Michigan had sued the Bay Mills Indian Community for refusing to close a casino the tribe built without asking Interior or the National Indian Gaming Commission. The tribe, however, raised sovereign immunity. If the Supreme Court would have done away with sovereign immunity altogether, that would have impacted the lawsuit between Arizona and the Tohono O’odham, but in May 2014 the Supreme Court upheld tribal sovereign immunity, protecting the tribes from getting sued in most cases. The opponents to the casino suffered another loss in July when the U.S. Department of Interior reaffirmed its decision to make the tribal land at 95th and Northern Avenues part of the Tohono O’odham Reservation, meaning the tribe could build whatever it wanted on the land.

The City of Glendale decided to make a turn, and in a divided vote the Glendale City Council agreed to support the Tohono O’odham casino five years after expressing strong opposition to the project. At the same time the U.S. Senate finally decided to insert themselves into the fight when the Arizona senators, John McCain and Jeff Flake, introduced a bill prohibiting new casinos in the metropolitan Phoenix area. The bills didn’t make it out of the session, but with the start of the next session in January 2015 McCain, Flake, Franks and also Paul Gosar reintroduced legislation to ban casinos in metro Phoenix. Really.

The federal maneuvering didn’t deter the Tohono O’odham. They broke ground on the casino in August 2014, inspiring new Governor Doug Ducey, Attorney General Mark Brnovich and Department of Gaming Director Daniel Bergin to let all the parties know a few months later that Arizona would not allow the casino to open because – this is a good one – they alleged the Tohono O’odham Nation committed fraud in negotiating the 2002 gaming compact. There has to be at least a little irony in the state claiming they were hoodwinked by the Indians. The tribe responded by filing a lawsuit asking for an injunction that would allow the casino to open later that year.

In something of a surprise ruling, the U.S. District Court of Arizona denied the tribe’s request for an injunction, ruling that the Tohono O’odham Nation failed to prove it would suffer irreparable harm or financial losses from the state’s attempts to block the casino. Apparently the judge was unfamiliar with the casino business, often known as a license to print money. Hard to imagine their lawyer wasn’t able to sell the idea that millions of dollars were on the table for the tribe.

I know. It’s hard to follow the lawsuits without a program.

By November 2015, the 9th Circuit affirmed the decision that the state law that would have allowed Glendale to annex the tribal property was unconstitutional on the basis that when it comes to tribal issues, federal law trumps state law.

The U.S. House failed to provide quick passage to the legislation sponsored by Franks and Gosar disallowing any new casinos in the Phoenix area, and on December 20, 2015 the Desert Diamond Casino opened with 1,089 slot machines, although without the ability to operate table games.

Negotiations between the state and the Tohono O’odham Nation continued until finally, a week ago the parties reached agreement on what officials described as a massive $300 million expansion project featuring slots, table games, as well as alcohol sale. Interestingly, the other Native tribes running casinos in the state said they wanted more gaming in their facilities. In exchange, they would let Desert Diamond become fully operational. Arizona not only didn’t get what it wanted – no new casino in the Phoenix area – it wound up having to expand gaming on other reservations.

So the long and tedious story of the Glendale casino finally came to an end, the only end anyone could have really expected. I have seen no evidence that Turf Paradise and Jerry Simms were part of the efforts to block the casino, but clearly it will have negative effects on the track.

While Turf Paradise peddles the economic impact of the track ($91 million dollars a year), that only represents .03% of Arizona’s GNP, and frankly will pale in comparison to the economic impact of the casino and the multiple thousands of jobs it will generate. Even given the limited amount tribal casinos contribute to state revenues, they contribute more than Turf Paradise.

Arizona, like many other states that were helpless to stop the proliferation of tribal casinos, has essentially lost any future opportunity to help Turf Paradise out of it’s downward spiral. For the principals of Turf Paradise who wish for reform, the tribal casinos have essentially tightened their hold on casino style gambling. Even if Turf Paradise is spot on in its analysis that the tribal casinos are pushing them off a precipice, they have not done the right things to help themselves to compete for their slice of the gambling dollar. Many horseplayers have ditched betting Turf Paradise because of the excessive take they impose. At the very least, the 20.75% win, place and show takeout makes it incredibly difficult for Turf Paradise to retain new fans long enough to convert them into horseplayers, and like many tracks, they don’t get that raising the take has the inverse effect on revenue.

Turf Paradise played the loyalty card – they’ve been here supporting Arizona for 61 years, aren’t they owed something? One stinking racino in  state that already has 23 casinos and room for 20 more? Turf Paradise tried to get voter approval of slots with Prop 201 and got shot down. Perhaps if voters knew what the future would hold for Turf Paradise they would have made a different decision, but I’m afraid at this point that the proverbial horses have left the barn.

It’s hard to imagine Turf Paradise getting any kind of slots or VLTs now that the state has basically given the tribes carte blanche over any gambling that isn’t horseracing. What the court cases proved is that states are at a severe disadvantage against the the federal laws that govern Indian Gaming. It also proved that gambling in Arizona belongs to the tribes. On May 17, 2017 the sound Turf Paradise heard was a nail slamming into the coffin where horseracing was reposing.

One thing Vince Francia, general manager of Turf Paradise, got right in his response to the Arizona Republic. It could be horse racing’s last straw.

Selections

Belmont May 21

Race 1

  • 2  Italian Syndicate
  • 5  Valhalla
  • 1  Breeze Burner

Race 2

  • 6  Game Girl
  • 2  Truth in the Lies
  • 3  Speak Up Sailor
  • Secondary (1, 5)

Race 3

  • 6  Lucky Lotto
  • 1  Souper Knight
  • 5  Draxhall Woods

Race 4

  • 2  Easy Way Out
  • 9  Majestic Mac
  • 8  Rubicon
  • Secondary (1, 6)

Race 5

  • 3  Believe Indeed
  • 2  Frosty Lady
  • 4  Desert Duchess
  • Secondary (6)

Race 6

  • 7  Focus Group
  • 8  White Flag
  • 10  Cerise’s Prince
  • Secondary (3, 4, 6, 11)

Race 7

  • 2  Startwithsilver
  • 6  Epping Forest
  • 1  Barrier to Entry
  • Secondary (8)

Race 8

  • 2  Bealstreet Dancer
  • 7  Three Perfections
  • 11  Cloontia
  • Secondary (3, 5, 6, 8)

Race 9

  • 5  Liam’s World
  • 9  Jeanne’s Speight
  • 3  Citizen by Day
  • Secondary (11)
Selections

Belmont May 20 and Preakness Stakes

Let’s start with the Preakness.

The question to ask is pretty simple. Is Always Dreaming beatable? There is certainly always a chance, but on paper he looks very strong. So let’s go through the field and figure out a betting strategy.

1  Multiplier. He started racing as a three year old and has gotten better with each start. He ran third in the mud in his initial start, and two races later broke his maiden at the Fair Grounds. Off that victory he won the G3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, and now steps up to Grade 1 company. The short story is that he appears too inexperienced and too slow to compete with this group. Brendan Walsh got his start as a trainer apprenticing for Eddie Kenneally and has been on his own for about five years. He’s done well this year and in time Multiplier might be able to compete with these, but today he’s a toss for me.

2  Cloud Computing. Another late starter trained by Chad Brown. He took the Gotham/Wood route to the Triple Crown, and while he ran a decent second in the Gotham and a fair third in the Wood, neither of the winners in those races came back to run particularly well in the Derby. The fact that Chad Brown trains him is a positive, but he’s going to have to improve to catch a piece here.

3  Hence. He came to the Derby with a bit of hype off an impressive Sunland Derby win. Irap, one of the also rans in that race, came back to win the Bluegrass, and Conquest Mo Money ran a nice second in the Arkansas Derby after finishing second in the Sunland Derby, both horses flattering Hence. Like many of the horses in the Derby, he had trouble, but it would be hard to give him a real chance of winning the race coming off the Derby and one decent run at Sunland. Maybe he could sneak into a back hole, but he doesn’t appeal to me beyond that.

4  Always Dreaming. A look at the past performances reveals an impressive runner that appears to have come into his own. The Florida Derby win was impressive, the Derby win more so. Let’s look at the positives. He’s the speed in a race without much speed on a track that is normally kind to speed. The switch from Dominic Schettino to Todd Pletcher has made an enormous impact on the horse. And as I said, he seems to be getting better with each race. The negatives on the KY Derby win are that he was on a rail that was the consensus place to be, the fractions of the race were average, and the final quarter was hardly spectacular. One horse was rapidly making up ground, and that was Lookin at Lee coming up the preferred rail. Todd Pletcher has a horrible record with horses coming back in 14 days or less, but then again he was something like 1 for 44 entering the Derby, so perhaps that statistic isn’t as meaningful. Do the negatives make the horse vulnerable? Eh, maybe a little, but it’s not like you can make a case for too many of the other horses coming out of the Derby, with one exception I’ll get to in a bit. It would be gambling to leave AD out of the top slot, but this may be a race to do that. On the other hand, putting him on top can’t be criticized.

5  Classic Empire. Clearly he had about as bad a trip as any horse in the Derby, from being shuffled around early to being blocked later in the race. The bad news is that he seems to be a horse that has more than his share of trouble in races. Still, with only ten runners, the Preakness might be a race where he can run his “A” race, assuming he makes a fair break.  This horse was the two year old of the year, ran somewhat dull in his 3YO debut, and then came fully to hand in the Arkansas Derby, a race that produced second place finisher Lookin at Lee. The horse has the ability to track and that could put Always Dreaming in a  spot where he can’t casually lope along by himself on the lead.  That can make it a race in the stretch to see which horse is better. Do I think he’s a better horse than Always Dreaming? I think the possibility is there, and I think I’m will to pay to find out.

6  Gunnevera. He’s another one of the horses that come into the Derby with a lot of support and given the switch from Castellano to Mike Smith he may garner support here. He was a winner in the Fountain of Youth, but was dull in the Florida Derby and the KY Derby. Off his best Florida races he’s not out of the question, but he doesn’t give me great inspiration.

7  Terms of Art. As much respect as I have for Doug O’Neill, this horse looks like a non-contender to me. I’d stick him in the fourth slot at best.

8  Senior Investment. The winner of the Lexington really faces by far his toughest challenge. For me he’s another non-contender.

9  Lookin at Lee. The second place runner in the Derby had a good trip, saving ground on an advantageous rail early and closing on it late. This time he’s going to have to get over to the rail early, so he’ll likely save ground again, and then find the right path to unleash his kick in the stretch. Can he spring the upset today? I wouldn’t make that a very high probability. He’s 10-1 on the ML, and I’d say that’s about right. He has to be used in the money, but I’d struggle to put him in the top slot.

10  Conquest Mo Money. He’s the so-called new shooter in the race. He didn’t go in the Derby but he showed he was not just a Sunland horse when he ran second to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. He’s another one with enough speed to press Always Dreaming and that may give him an advantage. Again, I’m having a hard time seeing him get by my top two choices.

The strategy:  It’s hard to imagine there are horses better than Always Dreaming at the moment. Still, that’s why they don’t run the race on paper. If you want to bet the individual race, I’d think about trifectas and superfectas. Even then I’m hard pressed to figure out how to make much money. I would use Classic Empire on top. He’s the one horse that has run well in top graded stakes and has a big excuse coming out of the Derby.

  • 5/4/2,3,6,9,10/2,3,6,9,10
  • 5/4/3,9,10/2,3,6,9,10
  • 5/3,9,10/4/2,3,6,9,10

Belmont

Race 1

  • 5  The Brown Bomber
  • 2  Pimm’s Cup
  • 1  Coral Ridge

Race 2

  • 4  Augie’s Coming
  • 7  Blafe’s Corner
  • 3  Fielding Gold
  • Secondary (5)

Race 3

  • 6  Highland Sky
  • 1  Arties Silver Mine
  • 2  Fire Away

Race 4

  • 3  Luna Rising
  • 1  Luz Mimi
  • 2  Wildcat Belle
  • Secondary (6)

Race 5

  • 4  Queen of Spades
  • 7  Pop Singer
  • 6  Five Each Way
  • Secondary (1, 5)

Race 6

  • 5  Battery
  • 2  Our Karma
  • 3  Swift One
  • Secondary (4, 7)

Race 7

  • 8  Lull
  • 6  Con Te PArtiro
  • 9  Happy Mesa
  • Secondary (2, 5, 4)

Race 8

  • 10  Tiz a Chance
  • 1  Aktabantay
  • 4  Winter Springs
  • Secondary (8, 9)

Race 9

  • 8  Dream a Little
  • 10  Satin Sheets
  • 4  Out of Trouble
  • Secondary (9, 2, 7)

Race 10

  • 1  Youth Gone Wild
  • 10  Prima Attrice
  • 4  Empty House
  • Secondary (5, 6, 8)
Opinions

Tumultuous Turf Paradise

Who says the print media is dead? An investigative report by the Arizona Republic, claims Jeremy and Ronald Simms, brothers feuding about the control of Turf Paradise Racetrack in Arizona, could be jeopardizing the future of the state’s horse racing industry by reducing track business and race purses. (The report is here http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-investigations/2017/05/14/turf-paradise-feud-jerry-simms-ronald-simms-horse-racing-thoroughbreds/97308762/)

That’s a good one. Track owners killing racing. Who’d have thought?

I’ve been to Arizona many, many times, and I have family there. I’ve always had some difficulty trying to describe the politics in Arizona. They had a bad run of elected Governors  when Evan Mecham and Fife Symington were indicted, and one of the more underwhelming Governors in their history in Jan Brewer, who ascended to the governorship after Janet Napolitano bolted for the Obama Administration.

I have a funny aside about Governor Jane Dee Hull, the Secretary of State who moved into the Governor’s office after Fife Symington resigned. I was at a state dinner when, unknown to some of us, Governor Hull was called away after the speeches because part of Northern Arizona was on fire. Once the diners were finished, a band took the stage and the bar was open. Someone propped a smiling, life-sized cardboard cutout of the Governor on the side of the stage, looking at the band admiringly. A few songs and a few drinks into the festivities and one of the people with us says, “She hasn’t moved the whole time she’s been on the stage.” He wouldn’t believe it was a cardboard cutout until he got up close to the stage and saw it for himself. Anyway…

In a lot of ways Arizona is still a “good old boy” state (or good old gal if you count Rose Mofford, Jane Dee Hull, and Jan Brewer) and the Racing Commission fits that bill. The racing commissioners are probably more typical than not of the composition of racing commissions.  If you read their posted bios, you have to wonder how many long time race-goers are just as qualified to be a racing commissioner.  You have an estate planning/corporate lawyer who is a “fan” of thoroughbred racing. There is a financial advisor who has owned horses. A greyhound guy (which is not a bad thing if you are a state with greyhound racing). And another fan who owned horses. No medication experts. No veterinarians. But some good friends of Jerry Simms.

According to the Republic, “two commissioners — Tom Lawless and Jay McClintock — acknowledge close personal ties with Jerry. They socialize at Turf Paradise and one another’s homes. They hang out regularly at an off-track betting bar on Camelback Road, near their homes. A third commissioner, Chairman Rory Goreé, employed one of Jerry’s attorneys for personal legal matters.”

This is not so uncommon either. It’s not unusual for the qualifications of the racing commissioners to be thin, and the relationship between the racing commission and the track management to be, well, let’s just say very friendly.

And would people be shocked that Jerry Simms contributed $15-$20K a year to political campaigns, more in big election years?

You can’t make this stuff up. Again according to the Republic,

“Ron Simms points to his sibling’s past role in a California political-corruption sting, and to financial dealings with a former mob-tied casino operator. Ron alleges Jerry misappropriated millions of dollars from Turf Paradise while using Arizona courts, politicians and prosecutors in a “secret backdoor scheme” to cheat him.”

For his part, Jerry Simms managed to get his brother declared an undesirable with regard to track ownership by the racing commission over the findings of an administrative law judge who found Ron to be a decent man and a victim of a smear campaign by “the Jerry Group.”

Inspiring family, eh?

All I can say, is if we’re depending on a couple of racing fans and a greyhound guy to sort all this out, we may be placing unrealistic expectations on them.  But clearly something is wrong. By every statistic the Republic was able to provide, Arizona racing is in big trouble.

As might be expected, Jerry Simms and Vince Fancia, General Manager of Turf Paradise, offered the same explanations we hear from most track officials. Blame goes to an industry-wide slump that has closed many tracks, Indian casinos have siphoned away gambling dollars, and a shortage of thoroughbred horses has forced tracks nationwide to run fewer races.

But Turf Paradise also insists it is thriving with special promotions such as wiener dog races and a Kentucky Derby Party.  General Manager Francia added, “There is no impact between the Simms brothers’ litigation and the vitality of the Arizona horse-race industry and the future of Turf Paradise.”

I believe that is code for, of course a feud over the way the track is managed and by whom will have an effect on racing. It certainly stretches credulity to insist that sort of distraction is irrelevant.

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest the weiner dog races are not the answer racing has been searching for.

Turf Paradise is not alone, either as a track in trouble because of the state of racing or as a place where the regulated and the regulators have unnaturally close relationships. We cannot expect the kinds of conditions at Turf Paradise – and plenty of other tracks for that matter – to always lead to decisions that are in the best interests of the horseplayers. In Arizona, there is at least the appearance that what Jerry Simms wants, Jerry Simms gets, and anyone who gets in his way, even his brother, may suffer as a result.

The money Arizona is spending on legal fees will ultimately result in the state wondering if it is worth it just to have horse racing in Arizona. According to the Republic, in just three years, the state has paid $739,248 to private lawyers representing the Department of Gaming in connection with the Simms controversy, according to agency records, with some of that money coming  from racing purses. It won’t take long at those rates for the State to get fed up with the situation, and it is hard to say how they will react when they do.

Arizona, and plenty of other states, need to come to a frank realization that as you turn over the racing commissions to people whose only chance to succeed involves overcoming a long and steep learning curve, especially when racing is in the midst of a crisis as bad as it has ever seen, is a surefire way to ensure the conditions that led to the crisis do not improve. We need racing commissions that are not so intertwined with track ownership that that they are unable to make decisions in the best interest of the other stakeholder groups – racegoers, owners, trainers – instead of reliably putting track ownership ahead of them. We need racing commissions that adequately represent the gamut of stakeholders. We need racing commissioners who come to the job with knowledge in the areas in which they are asked to make decisions.  We need racing commissions that can think outside of the box when that sort of thinking is necessary.

The situation at Turf Paradise may provide us with some comedic relief, but the issues are deadly serious. And if horseplayers and horsemen continue to put up with it, then they deserve nothing more than what they’ve been getting.

Selections

Belmont May 14

Race 1

  • 6  Hard Hitter
  • 2  Z Royal
  • 3  Spotty Zealous 

Race 2

  • 5  Via Frattina
  • 6  Skyline Drive
  • 1  Final Flurry

Race 3

  • 5  Zaguri
  • 6  Undercover Agent
  • 3  Rossie Val
  • Secondary (2, 7)

Race 4

  • 6  Union Riches
  • 1  Francesco Flier
  • 7  Mr Grey

Dirt

  • 4  Facade
  • 2  Mollica
  • 5  Tin Drum

Race 5

  • 5  Bareeqa
  • 10  Pinchback
  • 1  Tiz a Kitten
  • Secondary (3, 7)

Race 6

  • 3  Krista’s Persona
  • 5  Lakeside Sunset
  • 6  Champagne Ruby
  • Secondary (2, 4)

Race 7

  • 8  Insta Erma
  • 2  Peru
  • 5  Catcha Rising Star
  • Secondary (6)

Dirt

  • 7  Malibu PRincess
  • 3  Pawley’s Express
  • 5  Catcha Rising Star
  • Secondary (4)

Race 8

  • 4  Nouvelle Vague
  • 2  Frosty Lady
  • 7  Holidays Saratoga
  • Secondary (3)

Dirt

  • 15  Northern Scream
  • 13  Jemmabelle
  • 11  Loyal Heart
Selections

Belmont May 13

I’m hearing crappy weather this weekend. That might change everything, but I gave it my best shot.

Race 1

  • 4  Cookie Crisp
  • 3  Robbins
  • 2  Driven West

Race 2 (May wash off the turf)

  • 9  Djulpan
  • 5  Tu Exagerea
  • 10  Heated Verdict
  • Secondary (1)

Race 3

  • 3  Switzerland
  • 5  Blessed Halo
  • 1  Javelin

Race 4

  • 2  Timeline
  • 4  Impressive Edge
  • 1  Master Plan
  • Secondary (3)

Race 5 (May wash off the turf)

  • 12  Helmet Head
  • 10  Sutter’s Mill
  • 2  Thirtysevenliveson
  • Secondary (1, 7)

Dirt

  • 15  Skeet Shot
  • 1  Love and Care
  • 11  Max James
  • 3  Enasoit

Race 6  

  • 6  Dacita
  • 8  Miss Temple City
  • 1  Rainha Da Bateria
  • Secondary (3, 4)

Race 7

  • 2  Two Down One to Go
  • 5  Bene
  • 8  Conquest Prankster
  • Secondary (7, 10)

Race 8

  • 3  Wake Forest
  • 2  Charming Kitten
  • 6  Patterson Cross
  • 1  Sadler’s Joy

Race 9

  • 9  Curious Cal
  • 2  True Bet
  • 8  Bluegrass Prevails
  • Secondary (5, 6)

Race 10

  • 5  Bar of Gold
  • 3  Highway Star
  • 1  High Ridge Road
  • Secondary (4)

Race 11 (May wash off the turf)

  • 4  Leaveematthegate
  • 1  D’Eloquent
  • 2  Freedom Seven

Dirt

  • 6  Altesino
  • 10  Bourbon Empire
  • 14  H Man
  • Secondary (5)
Uncategorized

Exacta Table

Place Horse

    3-5 4-5 1-1 6-5 7-5 3-2 8-5 9-5 2-1 5-2 3-1 7-2 4-1 9-2 5-1 6-1 7-1 8-1
  3-5 – – – – – – – 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 14 16
  4-5 – – – – – – 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 21
  1-1 – – – – – 7 7 8 8 10 11 13 14 16 17 20 23 26
  6-5 – – – – 8 8 9 9 10 12 14 16 17 19 21 25 28 32
  7-5 – – – 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 18 20 22 25 29 33 37
  3-2 – – 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 17 20 22 24 26 31 35 40
  8-5   8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 19 21 23 26 28 33 38 43
Win 9-5 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 18 21 24 26 29 32 37 43 48
Horse 2-1 9 10 11 13 14 14 15 16 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 41 47 53
  5-2 11 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 22 26 29 33 37 41 44 52 59 67
  3-1 14 16 17 19 21 22 23 25 26 31 35 40 44 49 53 62 71 80
  7-2 16 18 20 22 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 52 57 62 73 83 94
  4-1 19 21 23 26 28 29 31 33 35 41 47 53 59 65 71 83 95 107
  9-2 21 24 26 29 32 33 34 37 40 47 53 60 67 74 80 94 107 121
  5-1 23 26 29 32 35 37 38 41 44 52 59 67 74 82 89 104 119 134
  6-1 28 32 35 39 43 44 46 50 53 62 71 80 89 98 107 125 143 161
  7-1 33 37 41 46 50 52 54 58 62 73 83 94 104 115 125 146 167 188
  8-1 34 43 47 52 57 59 62 67 71 83 95 107 119 131 143 167 191 215
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Kentucky Derby 2017 – Post Script

As is my custom, I did a 20 horse analysis of the Kentucky Derby. First, the outcome. I threw up an airball in terms of my tickets, but my analysis was really a lot closer than that might indicated. Let me start with what I thought I did well. I had five horses that I put in the category of 3rd or 4th at best.

  • Lookin at Lee
  • Untrapped
  • State of Honor
  • Hence
  • Irap

I also have five horses I said had no chance whatever, even to finish in the money.

  • Thunder Snow
  • Fast and Accurate
  • Girvin
  • Sonneteer
  • Patch

Out of ten horses that I said had no chance to finish first or second, exactly one of them managed a top ten finish – Looking at Lee, who actually finished second. This is what I said about him.

Looking at Lee. On the positive side, he’s a plodding closer, which means the one post isn’t going to hurt him as much as if he was a speed horse, but on the negative side, he’s going to have to circle the field to be a factor at the end. The rule of thumb is that you don’t consider deep closers in the win slot. He’s also not cracked the win code since August at Ellis Park. I could put him in the 3rd or 4th spot, but I’m not seeing anything better for him.

Here’s where I was wrong about him. He didn’t have to circle the field. He was able to stay on what some were calling a golden rail, found a place to slip out in the stretch and finished second. I miscalled his trip, and had I figured that out I would’ve certainly given him a chance to make the place. Ironically, I had people tell me that based on my analysis they did put Lookin at Lee in the second spot and nailed the exacta. So of the horses I said were chanceless, including the ridiculous 6th choice in the betting Patch, all five were in the bottom 10, and of the horses I said backhole at best, four of the five finished in the bottom 10.

I thought three horses were the highest probability for the win slot. Irish War Cry, the horse I used on top, was in perfect position and simply spit the bit. I’ll have to get Motion’s opinion on that, but it was a huge disappointment. The other two horses were Classic Empire and Practical Joke, who finished fourth and fifth. Not horrible.  The potential exacta horses were:

  • Always Dreaming
  • Gunnevera
  • Battle of Midway
  • J Boys Echo
  • McCracken
  • Tapwit
  • Gormley

They all finished in the top ten except for J Boys Echo.

I obviously missed the winner. This is what I said about him.

Always Dreaming. He was always targeted to run to the front early, and given the post position there is little doubt that will be the strategy. He’s the co-second choice on the morning line off the strength of his Florida Derby win, and while he was impressive winning that race, I remember thinking what an odd finish it was. The current downside on the horse is that he seems to be over energetic, and the concern is that between expending extra energy before the race, he may shoot his wad early in the Derby. The Toddster has been working the horse with a draw rein in an effort to control the horse better, but the gimmicky solution may portend trouble on Saturday. Still, Pletcher is a master at improving horses rapidly, and this was a prime example. He didn’t break his maiden until January at Tampa, won an optional claiming race next, and then popped in the Florida Derby. One thing I thought about before that race was, how could this horse be 5/2, but I didn’t think the field was that strong. I looked at the dirt races from that day, and they seemed to either be won by front runners or deep closers, and in the Florida Derby the top two finishers were basically there around the track, while Gunnevera came from well off the pace, so track bias doesn’t seem to be in play. The pace was reasonable, neither particularly fast or slow. Always Dreaming ran a huge new top in that race, and given that he has to be in the mix. But given the potential of a lot of speed in here, I’ve got reason to pause. I’m not likely to put him in the top slot, especially at the odds.

After reading that, I can understand the people who thought he was a legitimate contender and wound up with the exacta. I wish I could give you a reason I didn’t like him more. Sure the Pletcher Derby record influenced me, and sure I thought being trapped on the rail would cause him to go too fast early and crap out late, but the rail turned out to be a great place to be and the pace was not killing. I simply called it wrong.

So all in all, I predicted nine of the top ten finishers, including the 40-1 shot Battle of Midway who was one of my exacta possibles, and the better than 20-1 shots Tapwrit, Gormley and Practical Joke. If I had been a little more insightful I might have made a ton of money, but that’s what makes the Derby such a tough race. If you want to focus your money, you better be dead on. And if you want to spread, you better have a pretty good bankroll.

Selections

Kentucky Derby 2017

An interesting field for this year’s Derby. There are no standouts, like American Pharoah was, but there are a few horses with enough talent to make an impact here.

Looking at Lee. On the positive side, he’s a plodding closer, which means the one post isn’t going to hurt him as much as if he was a speed horse, but on the negative side, he’s going to have to circle the field to be a factor at the end. The rule of thumb is that you don’t consider deep closers in the win slot. He’s also not cracked the win code since August at Ellis Park. I could put him in the 3rd or 4th spot, but I’m not seeing anything better for him.

Thunder Snow. He is out of serious consideration for me for a few reasons. First, from the two post he really doesn’t have much of a choice other than to use his speed early. Second, it’s just a rarity that horses can ship from Dubai and run well in the Derby.  Third, the word on him is that he has the sort of high leg action associated more with turf horses. Finally, his pace figures don’t suggest he’s as fast as a few of the others in here.

Fast and Accurate. He may be the screw horse in the race. His trainer has already announced that he’ll vie for the early lead, and it may be the case that he will set extra fast fractions. If he does, he may wind up compromising some of the other horses that want to be toward the front, and maybe even upping the chances of the closers. Like I said, his primary role is to screw up the race. Otherwise, he’s a pitch for me.

Untrapped. He’s another one that might be compromised by the inside post. He’s got decent tactical speed, but doesn’t need the lead. It’s possible he might be able to establish position, but it’s just as possible he gets shuffled back. The blinkers come off today, and although Asmussen has had some success with that, it should be a critical move in this race.  His pace figures put him in the middle of this group. At best he’s a backholer, although it’s hard to imagine him really being a serious factor.

Always Dreaming. He was always targeted to run to the front early, and given the post position there is little doubt that will be the strategy. He’s the co-second choice on the morning line off the strength of his Florida Derby win, and while he was impressive winning that race, I remember thinking what an odd finish it was. The current downside on the horse is that he seems to be over energetic, and the concern is that between expending extra energy before the race, he may shoot his wad early in the Derby. The Toddster has been working the horse with a draw rein in an effort to control the horse better, but the gimmicky solution may portend trouble on Saturday. Still, Pletcher is a master at improving horses rapidly, and this was a prime example. He didn’t break his maiden until January at Tampa, won an optional claiming race next, and then popped in the Florida Derby. One thing I thought about before that race was, how could this horse be 5/2, but I didn’t think the field was that strong. I looked at the dirt races from that day, and they seemed to either be won by front runners or deep closers, and in the Florida Derby the top two finishers were basically there around the track, while Gunnevera came from well off the pace, so track bias doesn’t seem to be in play. The pace was reasonable, neither particularly fast or slow. Always Dreaming ran a huge new top in that race, and given that he has to be in the mix. But given the potential of a lot of speed in here, I’ve got reason to pause. I’m not likely to put him in the top slot, especially at the odds.

State of Honor. He got a good figure off that second in the Florida Derby, but prior to that his figures suggest a top half runner at best. Perhaps a backhole prospect.

Girvin. His style has him closing from at least behind half of the field, but all we’ve all been reading about his foot problems and missed training time. He did meet the start at a two year old criterion. I have a fairly strict standard that horses that get sidetracked and miss training time because of nagging injuries get seriously downgraded. I’m going to toss him in this race.

Hence. He bombed in the Southwest, but won the minor prep Sunland Derby. That race turned out to possibly by stronger than expected when Irap came back to win the Blue Grass. I’m not sure exactly what to do with that race, but the pace figure came up well below the better contenders. Given his deep closing style, I can’t see him better than a backhole.

Irap. He won the Blue Grass at long odds as a maiden, although the time was not particularly snappy. One thing I know about Doug O’Neill and Paul Reddam is that they will never shy away from a challenge. That doesn’t mean it will always work out like the Blue Grass, but the fact that he is here always has to be taken seriously. Still, he looks overmatched here.

Gunnevera. Had this horse won the Florida Derby he might have been one of the choices in the Kentucky Derby. The question is, can he be forgiven for the Florida Derby flop? I’m going to say, even if the answer is yes, he’s a deep closer and I’m just not going to put that sort of horse on top. Still, at 15-1, he gets on the potential list of in-the-money horses.

Battle of Midway. If he wins the race, he’ll break the curse of Apollo. I’m not impressed by the final time in the Santa Anita Derby, but I was impressed at how Battle of Midway seemed to be coming back at the end.  Still, the pace numbers say that he’d have to improve to be the winner. I’ll put him in the in-the-money category.

Sonneteer. He is a maiden, although he’s been moderately competitive in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Even if you don’t believe the field is the strongest ever, it’s hard to imagine a maiden winning the race. He’s a toss.

J Boys Echo. He is one of the forgotten horses in the race. He came to the fore in the Gotham, but he bobbled and was bumped at the start of the Blue Grass and probably lost all chance. I think he’s one of the horses that may improve, I think he’ll be generally ignored in the betting, and I’ll have some minor action on him.

Classic Empire. The morning line favorite, and the reigning champion of his class. The horse is immensely talented, but he did miss training time during the Derby trail, first with a foot access and then with a balky back. He’s always been a headstrong horse.  In the Hopeful he wheeled at the start (wheeling at the start means he took a sharp right or left and was pulled up), but came back to win the BC Juvenile and earn two year old champion honors. He overcame his problems to win the Arkansas Derby, although not in a particular impressive time. This actually could be seen in a positive light. He certainly hasn’t shot his wad or peaked too soon. But on the other hand he went well off his training schedule and only had two prep races this spring. Given his breeding – not ideal for the mile and a quarter but not a real negative either – and the abbreviated training and prep race schedule, I wouldn’t put him in the favorite’s role but it would be foolish to say he doesn’t have a good chance to win.

McCracken. He is the co-second choice, although I think he may be overrated at those odds. His 2017 prep schedule was more abbreviated than I would like to see, and the choice of preps was less than I would have liked as well. He’s only got two preps this year, one less than the magic minimum of three preps that most of the recent Derby winners have had. He was supposed to race in the Tampa Bay Derby but came up with a minor ankle injury. I just have issues with horses that miss training or preps, and while McCracken has some positives – his post position is good for his running style and he was undefeated until the Bluegrass – that Bluegrass race was perhaps a little duller than I’d prefer. He’s in the mix, but in my opinion a minor win prospect.

Tapwrit. He is the second Pletcher runner in the race, and  while his prep schedule was reasonable, the clunker in the Blue Grass puts him in a worse light coming into the Derby. Still, he’s been getting rave reviews in the morning, and that at least gives me some pause. I think I may put him as part of the in-the-money group.

Irish War Cry. Right now he’s the horse that interests me most. He popped a very nice race in the Holy Bull, but then came back in the Fountain of Youth and ran inexplicably bad. Trainer Graham Motion’s was perplexed after the FOY and could only speculate that he bounced off the heavy new top in the Holy Bull or never quite took to the track. People described the GP track as deep and cuppy that day, but Motion has described the CD track as being very similar to Fair Hill where Irish War Cry trains. Motion gave him a month off, and then switched riders to Rajiv Maragh. That seemed to do the trick because he ran well in the Wood. Maragh barely moved a muscle down the backstretch, and drove him vigorously down the stretch, but he looked like he finished with something left in the tank. That showed me he can relax and not be too headstrong. He was on the track on Tuesday and Motion described him as being “on the muscle,” but he came back on Wednesday far more relaxed, so I have no issue with him being likely to expend a lot of nervous energy before the race. His breeding is impeccable, he should be able to put himself wherever he needs to be from the 17 post, and if he runs his best, he has excellent prospects.

Gormley. His win in the SA Derby was ambiguous to me. The finish time was a lot slower than some of the other preps, but he has run better so maybe it was just the track condition. Still, I think the better California horses weren’t in that race, so I’m more inclined to give the SA Derby less credit. His breeding for the mile and a quarter is very good, and his prep schedule is enough to qualify him. I could be wrong, but I’m limiting Gormley to an in-the-money finish.

Practical Joke. He’s been a little bit of the wise guy horse. He ran well as a two year old, winning the Hopeful, the Champagne, and running a decent third in the BC Juvenile after having a little trouble at the start. He was impressive  in the Florida Derby on that tiring track. One negative is that he only started twice as a three year old, and historically three or more starts seems to be necessary for a win, but if any trainer can get a horse ready off a shorter prep season, it’s Chad Brown. He’s nicely bred for the mile and a quarter and he’s progressed beautifully up to the Derby. He is the longshot prospect for me.

Patch. He’s had three starts, all in 2017, for Todd Pletcher. If anyone else was the trainer, he’d be a quick pitch, but given the Toddster is in charge, he gets a second look. His Louisiana Derby race was good, but I just don’t think he has enough of a foundation to make an impact here, and the 20 post doesn’t help.

Win Prospects

  • Irish War Cry
  • Practical Joke
  • Classic Empire

Potential Exacta/In-the-Money Horses

  • Always Dreaming
  • Gunnevera
  • Battle of Midway
  • J Boys Echo
  • McCracken
  • Tapwit
  • Gormley

Backhole (3rd or 4th) at Best

  • Lookin at Lee
  • Untrapped
  • State of Honor
  • Hence
  • Irap

Pitch

  • Thunder Snow
  • Fast and Accurate
  • Girvin
  • Sonneteer
  • Patch

And the winner is….Irish War Cry

Selections

Belmont May 4

What a tough couple of days it’s been at BEL. You’d be almost better off seeing what I like and picking another horse.

Race 1

  • 6  Northern Screamer
  • 4  Midnight Candy
  • 3  Perina’s Pride

Race 2

  • 1/1A  Set the Trappe/Abdaar
  • 5  Kohlhase
  • 8  Sammy Wonder Stone
  • Secondary (4, 6)

Race 3

  • 4  Night Prowler
  • 6  Conquest Typhoon
  • 5  Gold Shield

Race 4

  •  1/1A  Boule/Dovecote
  • 2  Inflexibility
  • 8  Miss Munnings
  • 10  Liam’s World
  • Secondary (5)

Race 5

  • 2  Dogtown
  • 6  Hammerin Aamer
  • 7  Roman Revival
  • Secondary (1, 5)

Race 6

  • 8  Dreamy Margarita
  • 4  Questeq
  • 6  Hope’s Roar
  • Secondary (5)

Race 7

  • 2  Glory to Kitten
  • 5  Taralena
  • 6  Al Hayyah
  • 8  Flattermefabulous

Race 8

  • 5  Gypsum Johnny
  • 4  Drover Crazy
  • 1  West Hills Giant
  • Secondary (3, 6)

Race 9

  • 10  Samodiva
  • 1  Paz the Wine
  • 3  Jazzy Juder
  • Secondary (5, 9)