An interesting field for this year’s Derby. There are no standouts, like American Pharoah was, but there are a few horses with enough talent to make an impact here.
Looking at Lee. On the positive side, he’s a plodding closer, which means the one post isn’t going to hurt him as much as if he was a speed horse, but on the negative side, he’s going to have to circle the field to be a factor at the end. The rule of thumb is that you don’t consider deep closers in the win slot. He’s also not cracked the win code since August at Ellis Park. I could put him in the 3rd or 4th spot, but I’m not seeing anything better for him.
Thunder Snow. He is out of serious consideration for me for a few reasons. First, from the two post he really doesn’t have much of a choice other than to use his speed early. Second, it’s just a rarity that horses can ship from Dubai and run well in the Derby. Third, the word on him is that he has the sort of high leg action associated more with turf horses. Finally, his pace figures don’t suggest he’s as fast as a few of the others in here.
Fast and Accurate. He may be the screw horse in the race. His trainer has already announced that he’ll vie for the early lead, and it may be the case that he will set extra fast fractions. If he does, he may wind up compromising some of the other horses that want to be toward the front, and maybe even upping the chances of the closers. Like I said, his primary role is to screw up the race. Otherwise, he’s a pitch for me.
Untrapped. He’s another one that might be compromised by the inside post. He’s got decent tactical speed, but doesn’t need the lead. It’s possible he might be able to establish position, but it’s just as possible he gets shuffled back. The blinkers come off today, and although Asmussen has had some success with that, it should be a critical move in this race. His pace figures put him in the middle of this group. At best he’s a backholer, although it’s hard to imagine him really being a serious factor.
Always Dreaming. He was always targeted to run to the front early, and given the post position there is little doubt that will be the strategy. He’s the co-second choice on the morning line off the strength of his Florida Derby win, and while he was impressive winning that race, I remember thinking what an odd finish it was. The current downside on the horse is that he seems to be over energetic, and the concern is that between expending extra energy before the race, he may shoot his wad early in the Derby. The Toddster has been working the horse with a draw rein in an effort to control the horse better, but the gimmicky solution may portend trouble on Saturday. Still, Pletcher is a master at improving horses rapidly, and this was a prime example. He didn’t break his maiden until January at Tampa, won an optional claiming race next, and then popped in the Florida Derby. One thing I thought about before that race was, how could this horse be 5/2, but I didn’t think the field was that strong. I looked at the dirt races from that day, and they seemed to either be won by front runners or deep closers, and in the Florida Derby the top two finishers were basically there around the track, while Gunnevera came from well off the pace, so track bias doesn’t seem to be in play. The pace was reasonable, neither particularly fast or slow. Always Dreaming ran a huge new top in that race, and given that he has to be in the mix. But given the potential of a lot of speed in here, I’ve got reason to pause. I’m not likely to put him in the top slot, especially at the odds.
State of Honor. He got a good figure off that second in the Florida Derby, but prior to that his figures suggest a top half runner at best. Perhaps a backhole prospect.
Girvin. His style has him closing from at least behind half of the field, but all we’ve all been reading about his foot problems and missed training time. He did meet the start at a two year old criterion. I have a fairly strict standard that horses that get sidetracked and miss training time because of nagging injuries get seriously downgraded. I’m going to toss him in this race.
Hence. He bombed in the Southwest, but won the minor prep Sunland Derby. That race turned out to possibly by stronger than expected when Irap came back to win the Blue Grass. I’m not sure exactly what to do with that race, but the pace figure came up well below the better contenders. Given his deep closing style, I can’t see him better than a backhole.
Irap. He won the Blue Grass at long odds as a maiden, although the time was not particularly snappy. One thing I know about Doug O’Neill and Paul Reddam is that they will never shy away from a challenge. That doesn’t mean it will always work out like the Blue Grass, but the fact that he is here always has to be taken seriously. Still, he looks overmatched here.
Gunnevera. Had this horse won the Florida Derby he might have been one of the choices in the Kentucky Derby. The question is, can he be forgiven for the Florida Derby flop? I’m going to say, even if the answer is yes, he’s a deep closer and I’m just not going to put that sort of horse on top. Still, at 15-1, he gets on the potential list of in-the-money horses.
Battle of Midway. If he wins the race, he’ll break the curse of Apollo. I’m not impressed by the final time in the Santa Anita Derby, but I was impressed at how Battle of Midway seemed to be coming back at the end. Still, the pace numbers say that he’d have to improve to be the winner. I’ll put him in the in-the-money category.
Sonneteer. He is a maiden, although he’s been moderately competitive in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Even if you don’t believe the field is the strongest ever, it’s hard to imagine a maiden winning the race. He’s a toss.
J Boys Echo. He is one of the forgotten horses in the race. He came to the fore in the Gotham, but he bobbled and was bumped at the start of the Blue Grass and probably lost all chance. I think he’s one of the horses that may improve, I think he’ll be generally ignored in the betting, and I’ll have some minor action on him.
Classic Empire. The morning line favorite, and the reigning champion of his class. The horse is immensely talented, but he did miss training time during the Derby trail, first with a foot access and then with a balky back. He’s always been a headstrong horse. In the Hopeful he wheeled at the start (wheeling at the start means he took a sharp right or left and was pulled up), but came back to win the BC Juvenile and earn two year old champion honors. He overcame his problems to win the Arkansas Derby, although not in a particular impressive time. This actually could be seen in a positive light. He certainly hasn’t shot his wad or peaked too soon. But on the other hand he went well off his training schedule and only had two prep races this spring. Given his breeding – not ideal for the mile and a quarter but not a real negative either – and the abbreviated training and prep race schedule, I wouldn’t put him in the favorite’s role but it would be foolish to say he doesn’t have a good chance to win.
McCracken. He is the co-second choice, although I think he may be overrated at those odds. His 2017 prep schedule was more abbreviated than I would like to see, and the choice of preps was less than I would have liked as well. He’s only got two preps this year, one less than the magic minimum of three preps that most of the recent Derby winners have had. He was supposed to race in the Tampa Bay Derby but came up with a minor ankle injury. I just have issues with horses that miss training or preps, and while McCracken has some positives – his post position is good for his running style and he was undefeated until the Bluegrass – that Bluegrass race was perhaps a little duller than I’d prefer. He’s in the mix, but in my opinion a minor win prospect.
Tapwrit. He is the second Pletcher runner in the race, and while his prep schedule was reasonable, the clunker in the Blue Grass puts him in a worse light coming into the Derby. Still, he’s been getting rave reviews in the morning, and that at least gives me some pause. I think I may put him as part of the in-the-money group.
Irish War Cry. Right now he’s the horse that interests me most. He popped a very nice race in the Holy Bull, but then came back in the Fountain of Youth and ran inexplicably bad. Trainer Graham Motion’s was perplexed after the FOY and could only speculate that he bounced off the heavy new top in the Holy Bull or never quite took to the track. People described the GP track as deep and cuppy that day, but Motion has described the CD track as being very similar to Fair Hill where Irish War Cry trains. Motion gave him a month off, and then switched riders to Rajiv Maragh. That seemed to do the trick because he ran well in the Wood. Maragh barely moved a muscle down the backstretch, and drove him vigorously down the stretch, but he looked like he finished with something left in the tank. That showed me he can relax and not be too headstrong. He was on the track on Tuesday and Motion described him as being “on the muscle,” but he came back on Wednesday far more relaxed, so I have no issue with him being likely to expend a lot of nervous energy before the race. His breeding is impeccable, he should be able to put himself wherever he needs to be from the 17 post, and if he runs his best, he has excellent prospects.
Gormley. His win in the SA Derby was ambiguous to me. The finish time was a lot slower than some of the other preps, but he has run better so maybe it was just the track condition. Still, I think the better California horses weren’t in that race, so I’m more inclined to give the SA Derby less credit. His breeding for the mile and a quarter is very good, and his prep schedule is enough to qualify him. I could be wrong, but I’m limiting Gormley to an in-the-money finish.
Practical Joke. He’s been a little bit of the wise guy horse. He ran well as a two year old, winning the Hopeful, the Champagne, and running a decent third in the BC Juvenile after having a little trouble at the start. He was impressive in the Florida Derby on that tiring track. One negative is that he only started twice as a three year old, and historically three or more starts seems to be necessary for a win, but if any trainer can get a horse ready off a shorter prep season, it’s Chad Brown. He’s nicely bred for the mile and a quarter and he’s progressed beautifully up to the Derby. He is the longshot prospect for me.
Patch. He’s had three starts, all in 2017, for Todd Pletcher. If anyone else was the trainer, he’d be a quick pitch, but given the Toddster is in charge, he gets a second look. His Louisiana Derby race was good, but I just don’t think he has enough of a foundation to make an impact here, and the 20 post doesn’t help.
Win Prospects
- Irish War Cry
- Practical Joke
- Classic Empire
Potential Exacta/In-the-Money Horses
- Always Dreaming
- Gunnevera
- Battle of Midway
- J Boys Echo
- McCracken
- Tapwit
- Gormley
Backhole (3rd or 4th) at Best
- Lookin at Lee
- Untrapped
- State of Honor
- Hence
- Irap
Pitch
- Thunder Snow
- Fast and Accurate
- Girvin
- Sonneteer
- Patch
And the winner is….Irish War Cry
