Happy Independence Day to everyone. Great card at BEL with some first rate stakes. Picks are before scratches so some adjustments might be necessary.

Race 1      3-4-6

Another Pletcher/Velasquez two year old debut horse. No need to say more. Paynes Prairie finished second in the Tremont last out. He’ll likely be close to odds on here. Abbot had a nice three furlong work a week ago and could be ready to run.

Race 2      6-3-1

Elraay looked strong breaking his maiden and every reason to expect hi to run well with this group. Meshell has looked good in his two starts with winners and is competitive here. Predicate has a tendency to finish in the money instead of win but looks solid in the verticals.

Race 3      2-8-6

Rock Eagle looks to try a softer NW1X group instead of the stakes runners last out. Much more realistically placed. Bigger Picture did well against a few of these last out and has three wins to his credit. Chances at some odds. English Minister has been close his last three starts, although he is more likely in the money than the win slot.

Race 4      1-5-4

Wealth to Me was overmatched in the Brooklyn but fits this field well. Recent figures very consistent. Matrooh is two for three under Chad Brown’s tutelege and looks to be improving with each start. Samraat was running with top three year olds last year. Only question is whether the connections want him all out today or if they are looking for future runs.

Race 5     8-6-4

Depeche Chat is riding a two race win streak, the last at this level. Veteran loves to win and is as fast as any horse in the race. Barrel of Love is coming off a win against state-breds. Diane Balsamo has good percentages going sprint to route and first off the claim, and the 12-1 odds make him worth a look. Thomas Hill is another longshot with outs.

Race 6      6-1-5

Miss Ella won the Grade 2 Beaumont and ran well early in the Grade 1 Acorn. Young runner getting more experience and is probably better suited to the distance cutback. Promise Me Silver another that looks more like a sprinter. Prior to the Acorn was on an eight race win streak, including seven stakes. Irish Jasper just won a G3 at PIM. Steps up a bit today, but loves to win.

Race 7      4-1-7

Texas Red returns to the races in a G1 affair. He’s the ace closer in a race with plenty of pace. If he’s right he’ll be tough to keep out. Blofeld is the Pletcher/Velasquez entry and he has two G2 wins to his credit. Smart Transition doesn’t have the resume of some in here but I think his last was better than looked. Worth considering at the odds.

Race 8     2-8-7

Bolo has been far better on the turf than on the dirt and has a field dominating figure. Startup Nation ran well in the Penine Ridge and should improve off that effort. Worth a look at the mid-range odds. Postulation goes for top Euro trainer Dermont Weld and regular rider P J Smullen. Was recently gelded. I like that Weld made the trip with this horse.

Race 9      6-5-2

Tonalist was a surprise loser to Honor Code in the Metropolitan, but should be in better shape in the Suburban. Hard to pick against. Effinex ran a clunker in the Brooklyn, but was a winner in the G3 Excelsior. Maybe a little ambitiously placed, but his figures say he can run with this bunch. Coach Inge was a winner in the Brooklyn by essentially going wire to wire. Not much speed signed on so may be in the cat bird seat in the stretch.

Race 10   2-6-10-7

Lady Eli is the best three year old filly turf horse running and no reason to pick against her here. Spanish Queen is coming out of the American Oaks at SA and on figures could be the one to make it difficult on Lady Eli. Outstanding invades from Ireland and looks like the talent of the Euro invaders. Main concern is the distance. Consumer Credit is listed at 12-1 on the ML after finishing a length and a half behind 7/2 Spanish Queen. Odds say must consider.

Race 11   3-2-4-6

The Belmont Sprint closes out the July 4  card. Private Zone is more suited for the seven furlong distance. He’s got the speed and the figures and has done well on the BEL dirt. The Big Beast is a legitimate graded sprinter and will get a better trip than he got in the Carter. Greem Gratto is completely mis-evaluated at 15-1 ML. He’s speedy and likes the distance. Can’t discount. Stallwalkin’ Dude likes BEL and the distance and is coming off a good runs in his last three stakes.

Race 1      3-4-6-5

Noble Doss just missed at this distance in his first start of 2015.  Stays at the same price level. On his best day he looks like the field topper. Flash Paws won his last out at this distance. It was his best race in a while but he has strung them together in the past. Moneyinyour Pocket is dropping significantly in price from 2014. DJ hasn’t improved the horse, but if he runs some of the races we saw last year he’s a major contender. Groomedforvictory ran a good one last out. Last two starts have shown major improvement.

Race 2      1-7-3

Royal Ascot Zip was taken for $35K by Linda Rice first out. She put him right back in a MSW where he couldn’t hold his speed but drops him down to $20K today. Has plenty of speed and the only question is how he’ll take to the dirt. Heavy Hitter looked good at this level last out. I’ll swing for the fences with Warrior Jays in the third spot. He’s obviously not a turf horse, nor a high level claimer. Adds blinkers and moves to the dirt. I’m not saying he is a great thing, but I’ll use him in the verticals.

Race 3      3-2-7

Love to Run just won at this level two weeks ago, and actually has an intervening race. Chatterpaul has not had great success running them back so quickly, but the horse is in condition and is competitive in terms of figures. Star of New York has been consistent in 2015 and figures to be pushing at the end. BEL dirt win percentage is abyssmal though so not going overboard in the win slot. Cosmic Coincidence has been close in his last two at this level. Should be the one to catch.

Race 4      2-3-6

Killarney Rose has the fastest figures in the field and is dropping from MSW to this claiming affair. Will be hard to beat. Summer Chant is another dropping in the MCL ranks. Pletcher is fantastic moving horses to MCL and I’ll take it on faith this one will compete today. Durant missed the break last out but stayed in the race and closed well. Breeding doesn’t scream turf, but the first effort wasn’t bad.

Race 5      6-9-4

Swear by It moved over to the Chad Brown barn over the winter. Comes out looking for win number two. Well suited for the distance and Brown is excellent off the layoff. Resolutely came out well first time in 2015. Additional development over the winter should make her tough in this field. Aesthetique did not look good in her 2015 efforts at GP but should be better adapted to BEL.

Race 6      9-7-8

Bellamy Way was over his head in a stakes last out, but prior to that ran reasonably well against the very talented Ostrolenka. Figures fastest with the scratch of the 1. Devilish Grin has four seconds in five starts. Clearly has the talent, has to show he has the heart. Interior Secretary ran better than looked in his first out. Has been gelded since last winter and Weaver is ok with horses off the layoff.

Race 7      5-3-6

Spring to the Sky faltered in the Jaipur but before that was running consistently with better than this. Gets the nod against a softer bunch. Summation Time ships over from PID for Clement. One for one over the BEL turf and has the figures to compete. Shore Runner is four for four in the money over the BEL turf. Moved to the barn of Joe Sharp last out and he is quietly having a good meet.

Race 8      8-6-4

Marbre Rose has run two good races over the BEL turf. She encountered some traffic issues in the Intercontinental and could turn the tables on Zindaya today. Zindaya was the winner of the Intercontinental and that makes her 3 for 3 on the BEL turf. Rarely runs a bad one. Photo Call has been running in graded company lately and came close in the Beaugay. Passed an easier spot at Parx to run in this one.

Race 9      9-5-12

Women Win has been close to the winner in her last two races. With the scratches in today’s race, she many stand out. Bold Print has been on the turf the last two outs and has figures that make her competitive here. Sing for Beauty has shown plenty of early speed and with the scratches could inherit an easy lead, making her dangerous.

Race 1      5-4-2

El Genio was off close to two years, returned on the BEL dirt showing some speed while tiring in the last half of the race. The second race was a MCL on the turf and he showed much better staying power. Third off the long layoff should produce his best. Jai Alai drops from MSW to this claiming affair. Should appreciate the distance cutback. Southpaw goes first time for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is good with first timers, although he hasn’t impressed that much at BEL. Still, the workout pattern is positive and given the weak field you can’t discount his chances.

Race 2      9-4-10

Thundering Gale won last out and drops in price for Chad Brown. Every reason to expect a repeat. Desert Bliss has looked good on the BEL turf lately and has competitive figures. Bargaining Table looks as good as any to round out the verticals.

Race 3       6-5-1

Moonlit Bay ran two consecutive seconds in cheaper PA bred claimers but the figures say competitive. Worth a look at the odds. Danette has been looking to break through for a while now. Last race was as good as she’s run and perhaps that signals she is finally ready. Regia Marina puts the blinkers on and looks to repeat her last BEL performance.

Race 4      2-1-3

Tonasah goes for powerful Pletcher/Velasquez combination. Have to respect those two first time. Modiste has some speedy workouts. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Contessa. Fabulous Devotion is another with an eye-catching workout pattern. Clement is effective with debut runners and two year olds.

Race 5      2-4-6

Asset Inflation is one for one at the distance and 3 for 5 over the BEL turf. Has been a consistent performer for a while now and will be trying to carry his speed all the way. Dowse’s Beach is making his second start of 2015 and should improve in this start. Very competitive at this level. Hear the Footsteps is more competitive on the turf. Like BEL and the distance. Has run well off the layoff before.

Race 6      9-6-4

Global Stroke goes for the red hot Todd Pletcher. Was well thought of in 2014 with starts in two graded stakes. Won an OC $25K first out in 2015 and just missed at this level last out at BEL. Has been much improved since moved to the turf. Smooth Daddy was graded stakes placed in 2014 but is still looking for the 2015 breakthrough. Any return to last year’s form make him very dangerous. Heyaarat finished just behind Global Strike last out; fits the race and has the right figures.

Race 7      1-4-10

Breach of Duty looked good winning a $25K NW2. She’s two for two over the BEL surface. Gethot Stayhot was a winner at this level ten weeks ago, tried a state-bred stakes and is back where she has her best shot. Toscano has quietly been having a good meet. She’s Marvy is the best of the front runners. Comes off a claim by Klesaris who is 21% first time off the claim.

Race 8      3-7-2

Morandi the French horse has been off for two years, and comes back under the care of Chad Brown. Silver Lime has also been off since 2013. Both horses showed some talent, but there is no way to tell if the layoff has left them needing a race. I’m going to make them plays against and instead go with Biz the Nurse. He won at first asking in the U.S. but then was placed over his head in two graded stakes. The return to the OC ranks should allow him to show better. Iron Power has shown some good front running ability and if Jose Ortiz can nurse it along he’s got prospects. Reflecting fits the class and has the figures to compete, but lately has been having trouble cracking the win code. Perhaps the drop is the answer.

Race 9      9-1-4

Strong Impact has an excellent win percentage His last win came in a restricted stakes and since that time he’s been knocking without getting through. Return to the Bruce Brown stable is in his favor. Put It Forward should appreciate the distance cutback. Partly Mocha has shown some favor for the BEL turf and the distance and has competitive numbers.