Belmont June 14

Race 1      7-4-1

With all the defections the Asmussen firster inherits the win slot. Rose Cape is one of the better bred for the turf. The RuRod entry both sold for more than their stud fee and RuRod is decent with first timers.

Race 2      2-1-5

She’s Marvy has a second at BEL and the best lifetime figure. Should be the leader early. First off the claim with Nevin who is 25%  with new runners. Miss Loretta Lynn drops to her lowest level in search of a win. First time on the dirt showed some potential. Quit Smokin ran well when dropped to this level last out and figures to be competitive.

Race 3      7-1-5

Lone Trader seems most at home on the turf and the cutback in distance looks to be in his favor. Icefield ran a strong race, just missing the win. Goes for the strong McLaughlin barn. Fourth of July was another who just missed when placed on the turf. Competitive in this field.

Race 4      3-7-5

Arbitrator raced well last out on the BEL dirt and has been signaling a breakthrough for a while. Kabang overcame a far outside post last out and showed good courage throughout. Should be the ruling speed. Ice Cutter looks like the one that will be coming fast in the stretch.

Race 5      7-3-9

This is very competitive race and there are a number of horses that have a shot. Idle American was over his head against the NY turf stakes stars last out. Looks much better placed with this group. Macagone is one of the speedier runners and has consistently competitive figures. Elroi figures to be the best of the closers.

Race 6      4-7-13

Hail Cornell gets first lasix for Mott and makes a drop to the claiming ranks after being competitive with better. Knacque has some back figures that would put her on top of the field. Busted Handle draws in and looked good first time on the turf.

Race 7      2-4-5

Sharp Quality is the top speed and is dangerous if unchallenged. Annie Walker is better on the fast dirt and has the numbers to be the winner. In Haste ran well at DEL second time off the layoff. Should run his top race today.

Race 8      6-7-8-4

Partisan Politics was not embarrassed losing to the extremely talented Lady Eli twice last year and comes out for Chad Brown, a 29% trainer off the long layoff. Two year old figs suggest a lot of talent and if she’s matured well should be the danger. Angela Renee has been with nothing but top three year old fillies, albeit on the dirt. Can’t discount given the powerful figures. My Year Is a Day was a useful runner in France and ran a good conditioning race first time in the states in a G3 at CD. Improvement likely. Sivoliere is the other Chad Brown runner. Had a troubled start last out on the GP turf and with a better trip is one of the horses with a shot to win.

Race 9      3-2-5

O’Bear drops from MSW to this claiming affair in search of a win and at 12-1 ML is worth a look. Stardom has been gelded since last seen here in 2014 and gets the top bug boy for the trip. River Knight is another dropping from MSW back to the MCL ranks where he has run better races.

Belmont June 13

Just the numbers today. The major investigative piece on trainer Chris Grove has finally cleared the hurdles and will be published on Monday and I’ve been furiously working on editing the piece. Look for it because it is a blockbuster.

Race 1      2-3-1

Race 2      4-3-2

Race 3      4-2-3

Race 4      6-9-5

Race 5      2-4-5

Race 6      8-7-5-1

Race 7      3-1-6

Race 8      4-9-6

Race 9      5-3-7

Race 10   1-10-4-6

Belmont June 12

Race 1      2-1A-6

D’Kennesaw Cat broke her maiden and came right back in her first with winners. She’s looking for three in a row and off her best figures is strong in this race. Nonnie Connie has the best figures, albeit they came on the turf. She’s also taking a precipitous drop in price. I’ll trust that Contessa left the horse in he thinks has the best chance of winning. Bella Fachi has been close the last few times out and occasionally throws in a winning effort.

Race 2      6-4-3

Eyeful ran decently in the Grade 1 E P Taylor first time in the U.S. and has switched to the Motion barn for her 2015 debut. She’s had a winter to mature, gets Lasix and has shown a liking for seven furlongs. Persnickety ran well last out at this level and with some improvement today she is a factor. Isabella Sings comes out of a couple of stakes races. Off her best she’s a dangerous customer.

Race 3      1-4

Alysaro is all the speed in this three horse affair. Lyrical Miracle drops down and figures to be the main competition.

Race 4      2-3-6

Pretty Like Me ran well first off a long layoff last out and should improve with that race behind her. Stonely Heart was ill-placed on the turf last out but has shown a liking for the BEL dirt. Drops out of MSW to this claiming affair. Not About the Nail should be picking up pieces in the stretch and may collect them all.

Race 5      11-3-8-9

Candid Desire showed improvement when moved to the turf last out. Has been a better horse since the shades were added. Shouldn’t have any issues with the mile distance. Alexa’s Spirit took well to the BEL turf last out and should be part of the stretch duel. Sonnyandpally is worth a look at the price. Making his second 2015 start at the higher price level and that is a positive. Northern Tripp does reasonably well on the BEL turf and is another making his second start in 2015. Improvement makes him a factor.

Race 6      9-5-2

Broken Border ran well first time out on the BEL turf. Looked promising in Florida and Servis is good off the layoff. Isthatallthereis ran well first time on the BEL turf and the switch to Irad highly positive. Courageisamajority looked strong in his 2015 debut and looks strong for a return off a short rest.

Race 7      9-6-8

Oltre’ Oro showed speed last out and tired. Should benefit from the cutback in distance and a return to last year’s form could put him in front at the wire. War Hero was claimed by Keneally and jumped up over his head. Returns to a more likely spot today. Wild Finish is looking for two in a row. Stays at the same price level so a repeat not out of the question.

Race 8      4-6-1A

Heat Flash was claimed last out by Joel Sharp who is having decent BEL meet and 2015. Jump in class will definitely be a test. Artie Crasher won a starter last out. Will need some pace to run at but has a win and a second at the distance. Glowing Ember ran well last time despite a troubled start. Shows he belongs at this level.

Race 9      5-9-1-3

Jackson N Leonard made an impressive 2015 debut first time on the turf and should improve today. Pioneer of Wifi also looked good first out on the turf and figures to be better with the race under his belt. Ack Feisty not particularly well bred for the turf but has a couple of decent efforts for Chad Brown. Brown is always worth giving a second look. My Friend Keith improved when dropped to this level last out by Mott. Second time out in 2015 should be an improved effort.

Ending Horseracing

Believe this fervently. There is a significant movement to end horseracing primarily based on a perception it is cruel. The case for cruelty is often made by people who know very little about the sport itself, or by people within horseracing with a specific axe to grind, like the anti-medication crowd. The folks who care about horses and horseracing but believe it should all be natural may unwittingly be helping to fuel the movement to end horseracing. As you’ll see, even a completely drug free sport won’t keep a certain group from working to end racing thoroughbreds.

A Bloomberg View sports writer named Kavitha Davidson recently did an opinion piece calling for the end of horseracing.    Davidson article

According to Ms. Davidson

Frankly, it’s a wonder that horse racing has lasted this long. Idealists would point to the sport’s long history in this country and to the unique place horses occupy in the American consciousness. But save for a few big races each year that are ultimately more cultural events and excuses to drink than marquee athletic showcases, the sport has been on a steady decline. And despite its blue-blood reputation, the “sport of kings” is really just the sport of vice, kept afloat by a system of gambling and doping that amounts to institutionalized animal abuse.

Idealists? You mean people who see horseracing as a legitimate sport and an enjoyable form of entertainment? And what is wrong with a few cultural events like the Kentucky Derby or the Breeders Cup to help define and popularize the sport? Only someone completely ignorant of the sport would argue these races are not marquee athletic events. If you watched American Pharoah in full flight in any of the Triple Crown races and concluded he is not an athlete of the highest order, you have no clue what a world class athlete looks like.

I suppose it would be hard to deny that the betting aspect is crucial to the sport’s survival. Of course, we’d never say that betting on games has something to do with the popularity of football. Everybody just tunes in to root on their favorite teams and give sports talk radio and ESPN something to rant about most of the day.

On the other hand suggesting the sport is kept afloat by “doping that amounts to institutionalized animal abuse” misrepresents the fact that most athletes need therapy to be able to play. Every sport, human or equine is to some degree dependent on doctors and pharmacists to keep the participants in the game. It is simply not abuse to treat minor inflammation or a sore muscle with a NSAID, human or equine. Neither should it be illegal in either case.

Eventually though we have to get to Lasix. Davisdon says

The main controversy today is over an anti-bleeding drug known as Lasix. In the U.S., it’s often administered on the day of the race, along with up to 26 other permitted substances; race-day medications are banned in almost every other country. Several top trainers have banded together to push for a plan to ban race-day medications in the U.S., citing the negative effects on the health of the animal and the reputation of the sport. Those resistant to change, including the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association, claim that injecting drugs is actually good for a horse’s health.

How does someone get the allowances for raceday medication so wrong? Yes, Lasix is administered the day of a race, but none of the other 25 therapeutics is allowed. There are established levels above which trainers receive violations. But this is what racing is up against. People who don’t know enough about the sport to speak knowledgeably, but who have a national platform, proffering plainly wrong information.  If someone unfamiliar with the sport reads that paragraph, it sounds like horses are getting 27 drugs before they go out on a racetrack. If that were the case then a lot of us who love racing would abandon the sport.

And one of the biggest problems is that the sport is not make up of all “top trainers” who have nothing but top stock. For every Pletcher or Graham Motion there are a hundred small time trainers training horses few people will ever remember.

The anti-racing crowd says that nothing can fix horseracing, including a Lasix ban, because it is inherently cruel. Davidson writes

Horse racing is inherently cruel, and the problems start, literally, from birth: As the Indianapolis Star’s Gregg Doyel notes, we should expect nothing less than physical breakdown from an animal bred to sustain an abnormally muscular carriage on skinnier-than-usually legs. What you don’t see behind the veil of seersucker and mint juleps are the thousands of horses that collapse under the weight of their science-project bodies. This weekend at Belmont, all eyes on American Pharoah meant nobody was paying attention to Helwan, the 4-year-old French colt who had to be euthanized on the track after breaking his left-front cannon bone. It was Helwan’s first time racing on Lasix.

An abnormally muscular carriage on skinner-than-usually [sic] legs? So does that mean we should be breeding horses with smaller muscles and fatter legs and everything will be fine? Of course not. Ms. Davidson is simply attempting to amplify the idea that racing is broken beyond repair. Between the drugs, the gambling (the horror of it), and the “science-project bodies” there is no rehabilitation for the sport.

Then she plasters on the coup-de-grace. A horse racing on Lasix for the first time breaks down. She doesn’t say that the Lasix caused the breakdown, but that was the implication. Lasix makes horses break down because it allows them to run too fast. Try telling that to a mustang looking to escape from a mountain lion.

She concludes by noting how well other sports have responded to their own drug scourges.

It’s true that abuses and safety concerns exist to varying degrees across all sports. But the more we have learned about health risks in football and hockey, and of performance-enhancing drug use in baseball and cycling, the more we stepped up our efforts to rectify the problems. As football players learn of the game’s long-term health dangers, many rethink their participation. But this exposes racing’s fundamental ill: A horse can’t consent.

So the story is that racing has done nothing to deal with health risks? Racing surfaces today are far more safe than they may have been years ago. Racing jurisdictions have passed limiting rules relating to whipping a horse and have required far more humane riding crops. And I’m not going into detail again about the drug rules in football or baseball as opposed to horse racing. Racing’s rules are draconian compared to these other sports. It’s often pointed out that few football players on a Sunday could pass the same drug test that a thoroughbred has to pass.

Let’s be realistic. No animal can consent to treatment, including your housepet. If that is racing’s fundamental ill, it is humanity’s fundamental ill because we insist on raising animals for food or keeping them as pets. That leaves the humans with some additional responsibility to treat the animal with the right dose of the right drug when that is what is called for. Your infant child can’t consent to treatment either, so we make the decision to medicate for them in their best interest. If that is the standard for horses, and perhaps Lasix aside that is the standard for racing’s therapeutic medications, what more can  racing do for the participants? The consent argument is a diversion because humane treatment can ensure animals are not being abused.

Racing has a myriad of problems without adding in the crowd that would go everywhere between truth-stretching and out and out story-telling to kill the sport. If these kind of editorials on the heels of one of the greatest feats a racehorse can achieve gain traction, the sport we love is in more trouble than we believed. We must do three things. First, we must stop airing our dirty laundry in a way that arms the people outside the sport to fight us. We must come to an agreement about how therapeutics, including Lasix, should be used (or not used)  in the sport. Second, we have to fight back with our own statistics. Statistics that show horses are not overmedicated, or at the very least that breakdowns are not correlated to the use of therapeutic medications. Third, we must police the people who would use real performance enhancing drugs (not therapeutics, the same way football and baseball do) in a meaningful way. I have written about trainers who have been abused by the system and I will continue to do so, but we must be able to discern between the real cheats and the trainers with picogram positives of therapeutics and treat those real cheats with harsh justice.

We cannot allow the ignorant and those with an anti-horseracing agenda to control the dialogue. Let’s face it – the loss of horseracing would hardly make a ripple with the great majority of Americans, and that means we have to work extra hard to convince the negative and the apathetic to let us solve our problems and make the sport viable in the long term. As the saying goes, if you aren’t part of the solution, you are part of the problem.

 

Belmont June 11

Race 1      2-4-1

Little Popsie cuts back a furlong after losing ground in the stretch first time out. Pletcher is about as good with second time maidens as first. So Noted got squeezed back early but showed a furious close to get second. That indicates good talent. True Bet is looking to break his maiden in his seventh start after finishing third in half of his previous starts. Certainly has the talent; question is does he have the will.

Race 2      6-5-9

Barrel Roll raced better than expected for a Mott firster and should improve second time, especially with the the additions of blinkers and Lasix. Trainer/jock combo has been successful lately. March On was the leader at the mile call last out. That race was a big improvement and the figures say competitive. Undertherain showed improvement when moved to the turf and current works suggest condition is there.

Race 3      3-6-7

Bella the Bandit figures best at the distance and the price level. Repeat of 4/16 race makes her most dangerous. Bileaps and Bounds has plenty of speed but may have some challengers that push him a bit too hard. Still she’s well-suited to the distance and track and is at the right price. Sacred Success has a liking for Belmont and looks to be in good shape considering she only had one start in 2014 and is only making her third start of 2015. Have to believe she’s past her physical issues.

Race 4      3-7-2

S’marvelous had a rough trip when over his head last out but still showed interest. Time before that he ran well and was taken by RuRod who is sharp off the claim. Erik the Red has looked good in 2015 for Linda Rice and definitely figures in this field. Flag On the Play ran huge first off the claim for Servis. Steps up a bit in condition but has the figures to be competitive.

Race 5      5-6-8

Drago’s Best is a first rate turf sprinter who should be able to use his speed to great advantage here. Partly Mocha has been consistent at the sprint distances and likes BEL. Certainly figures at this level. Night Officer may be a bit of a stretch off the layoff but Levine is good off the extended layoff and does have some good back class.

Race 6      3-9-4

Leroy Jr. looks for three in a row off a price drop for Chad Brown. Repeat of last puts him right there. American Creed goes first off the claim for Abby Adsit and she usually improves them coming back. Bug Juice switches to Irad for this trip. Has been an effective campaigner for a while and is worth a look at the odds.

Race 7      2-4-6

Dekalb County smashed through a maiden claiming field last out and looks to continue against winners. Positive that Pletcher moves to open starter allowance instead of looking for a NW1X. Surfspun has two strong seconds in the 2015 campaign and is certainly eleigible to break through today. Danzig Storm is another eligible for NW2 trying this field. He invades from KEE after being grabbed by Joan Scott from top trainer Mark Casse.

Race 8      3-10-1A

Maura’s Pass ran much better on the turf and steps up a few notches looking for her first with winners. Continued turf form makes her a player. Resolutely is the longshot contender in this race. She looked good with winners after taking a while to break her maiden and has every chance to upset today. Moonlit Sonnet shows a liking for the BEL turf but has been at this condition a while. Not as attractive as the top two but has the talent to be there at the end.

Race 9      5-2-8

Rick Ant continues his drop in search of the maiden win. Um Boom Ba Bay puts the blinkers on for the second start . Switch to Irad is positive. Lightning Ron is making his 11th start but in this field he is not without a chance.

Belmont Day June 6

Today’s card is as good as any card you’ll see this year. Last year’s top filly, Untapable, is running. The BC Classic winner Bayern is going. And of course 2015’s leading candidate for three year old of the year, American Pharaoh is running. Many of the races are super-competitive, and picking winners will be no easy task, but here goes.

Race 1      5-3-1

Donworth is going for the fourth time and with each successive race he has shown improvement. First time at BEL but he’s shown adaptability on different surfaces. He’s already graded stakes placed and his best figure tops this field. Japan just broke his maiden for Mott in his third start. Given he’s a trainer not noted for getting the best out of horse first time, now that Japan has shown some ability we can expect him to keep it up. Stanford ran a strong second to International Star in the Louisiana Derby and has been given some time to continue his development. He would be no surprise in this race.

Race 2      4-2-7

Tiz Shea D ran smartly in the Perer Pan after showing he wasn’t quite ready in the spring. He’s returned to the races in great shape and should thrive with the slight cutback in distance. Wisecracker broke his maiden impressively and he has the figures to compete in this NW1X. Tommy Macho broke his maiden at second asking and gets a rider upgrade to Castellano. I like the potential for improvement.

Race 3      3-4-1

Competitive Edge will be a strong favorite in this Grade 2 event. He was a winner at seven furlongs first time out this year and followed that with a convincing victory in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day. He’s undefeated, loves the distance and has a versatile running style. Two Weeks Off was outkicked in the Peter Pan but is two for two at the seven furlong distance. Ready for Rye won the Grade 2 Swale impressively but faltered in the Bay Shore. He’s got a win over the BEL dirt and has good tactical speed. Dangerous here.

Race 4      4-1-11-10

The Grade 3 Jaipur at six furlongs on the turf is full of quality runners. Ageless will be the longshot play here, being a mare going against the boys. Last time she ran in mixed company she only missed 3/4 of a length in the BC Turf Sprint. She’s almost a 50% winner overall, better than 50% on the turf, and one for one at the distance. Her figures are a match for any horse in here, and she’s graded stakes placed. Power Alert just won the G3 Turf Sprint at CD and stretches out another furlong today. He’s got great speed and has become a different horse with the addition of Lasix. Regular jock Leparoux decided to ride the 4, but the switch to Johnny V is positive. Spring to the Sky is always competitive at the distance and on the BEL turf. Obviously needed his last and should improve today. Channel Marker at 20-1 ML is interesting for the back holes.

Race 5      4-2-5

The G1 Ogden Phipps has a small but very elite field. Last year’s dominant three year old filly, Untapable will achieve odds on favoritism and on her best day she is better than any other horse in the race. But, her two races in Arkansas showed vulnerability and there are a couple in here that seem to be on the improve. She’s probably not a bet at anything approaching here ML odds, but if she was ever vulnerable, today might be the day. Wedding Toast came out in 2015 as a horse that has kicked some of the problems that held her back in 2014. Her last two figures say this race is not a foregone conclusion for the favorite. Princess Violet was a later blooming three year old who has become competitive at graded levels and she shows a definite taste for BEL. The upset possibility.

Race 6      8-5-10-2

The Brooklyn has always been one of my favorite races ever since I watched the mighty Forego make one of his patented late moves to win the race. This edition features a couple of last year’s talented three year olds in V E Day and Wicked Strong, as well as a couple of quality older stakes horses. V E Day gets the nod today. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has had great success with the turf to dirt move, especially with this horse. Yes, there is a the question of how well he’ll like the mile and a half, and whether he’ll get the right pace to run at, but he is a winner at BEL and getting ready to get his four year old season on the winning track. His stablemate Effinex should have no issue with the distance and rides a two race winning streak coming into this one. He’s a horse that looks like he’s developed over the winter and should be a major contender. Sky Kingdom comes from the West Coast off a win at this distance at SA. That last race was a monster and if he runs that race here he’s going to be tough to keep out. Red Rifle is the sneaky horse here. He hasn’t gone the distance on the dirt, but he has successfully on the turf. He may be the one hurt most by any sort of pace battle, but he’s a legitimate contender in here.

Race 7      9-7-8-2

Promise Me Silver comes into the race 8 for 8, but also hasn’t raced at the mile. She seems to be ratable and hard to run down once she gets the lead. Mike Smith takes the mount today. Condo Commando may be overrated in this field. She’ll certainly work to get to the front, but holding on against this group may be a task. Still, she’s a quality horse and the distance cutback shouldn’t hurt. Shook Up ran well in the Kentucky Oaks and the FG Oaks before that. She’s a horse that could also benefit from the distance cutback. Wonder Gal is the longshot possibility. She raced very well in the BC Juvenile fillies and didn’t embarrass herself first out at AQU. She looks like one of the ones eligible for improvement.

Race 8      6-3-4-2

Filimbi is listed at 6-1 ML in this year’s Just A Game, and for my money she’s overlayed. She’s 5 for 8 in turf miles and one of one at BEL. She’s going to be much better suited at the mile and her mile figures are outstanding. At the price, she’s worth a look. Discreet Marq looked good in her season debut in the Beaugay and is another well suited to the mile. She has a liking for the BEL surface and may be the one to catch in the stretch. Coffee Clique is the defending champ and comes in third off the layoff. She’s become a mile specialist and has the figures to be a major factor. Sandiva is 12-1 ML and is definitely better than that. She’s likely to be one of the ones closing and while she hasn’t won at the distance she may be part of the verticals.

Race 9      5-1-4-9

The Metropolitan is always a quality race and this year is no different. The X factor horse is Tamarkuz. He has blossomed on the dirt and his top figures are as good as any horse in the field. Of course when you are racing against the likes of Tonalist, Wicked Strong and Bayern and you’re generally unknown 10-1 is about as good as you could expect. He has been here a while and should be acclimated. He gets first Lasix and McLaughlin is 4 of 5 with shippers to North America. Private Zone is a horse you have to love. He goes to the front and often refuses to be caught. He’s well suited for the mile and it’s hard to criticize a horse that tries as hard as he does. Tonalist came out in 2015 and won the Westchester mile. This is a quality thoroughbred and if he stays healthy he should have a lot to say about horse of the year. Honor Code is the biggest closer in the race and if the speed does falter he could be the one picking up the pieces. That leaves out last year’s BC Classic winner Bayern, and that’s not to say he’s out of luck, but frankly he doesn’t seem to be in the shape of the top picks.

Race 10   2-3-5

Today’s co-feature is the 10 furlong Manhattan. Twilight Eclipse may appear to have trouble winning but a lot of that had to do with a horse named Main Sequence. That horse is not in this race and I think that will make all the difference. His figures are consistent and high quality and while he faces a quality field, this may just be his year. Finnegans Wake is one of those quality contenders and already has three graded wins this season including the Turf Classic at CD. He’s another with consistent, high level figures and may have the best closing kick in the field. Big Blue Kitten hasn’t slowed down much as a 7 year old. He likes the BEL turf and at the top of his game he’s right there.

Race 11   6-8-1-5

This is the race everyone has been waiting for, and I’ll make it as easy as possible. American Pharaoh is either a freak destined to outrun his breeding or a horse whose breeding will catch up with him at the mile and a half. AP will go to the front and if he is the super horse his press extolls he won’t look back, and make no mistake that is a real possibility. So my advice is play the race one way or the other (or both). I’m leaning toward playing the “California Chrome/Big Brown/etc scenario” and playing others in the top three. If you remember all the way back to the Derby I was a big fan of Frosted and today is redemption baby. He had one of the horror trips in the Derby and ran farther than anyone else and still finished fourth. He has a stamina point in his dosage and should have no problem at the mile and a half. Materiality is another that had no outs in the Derby but was highly regarded coming in. He’s another that still has to be given a chance to run his best race. Based on his running style he may decide to go with AP early and we’ll find out if he has the stuff to outfinish him. Mubtaahij is really much better than he looked in the Derby and is another with favorable mile and a half breeding. He will be underbet and I expect him to show far better than he did in the Derby. And if any horse other than one of these four wins I’m heading back to handicapping school.

Race 12   11-12-5

If you still have any energy left, Umgiyo looks like the solid choice here. He has consistent, quality figures and there is no shame in getting beat in the Turf Classic by Finnegan’s Wake. Market Outlook is on the improve for top turf trainer Chad Brown. Depeche Chat is about a 30% winner and goes for high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Figures say competitive.

Race 13   10-5-1-6

The finale is a mess of a race. I went with the obvious choice, Social Inclusion. He puts the blinkers on for his second start in 2015. First time out he ran well at a mile at GP and the cutback in distance should be to his favor. He’s got plenty of tactical speed. Spa City Fever just keeps on going and looks to make it two in a row. Green Gratto is the likely front runner although he might be a bit up against it at 7 furlongs. Easy to Say comes off a big win at MTH and with only four starts is eligible to improve.