The Rockville Center is for NY State-bred two year olds at six furlongs on the dirt. Two of the horses, Over Salty and Lake Party, don’t seem to have real outs here, so I’ll eliminate them from consideration. Morrison won his maiden on a sloppy BEL surface, and more importantly he won at today’s distance. There were only four starters in that race, but he was absolutely dominant, winning as easy as he pleased. This should be a much tougher test, but I like what he did last time out and may have things all his own way today.
Race 4
4 Barrier To Entry
7 Startwithsilver
5 Fire Key
Secondary (2)
Race 5
2 Hold on Momma
6 Preziosa
5 Novique
Secondary (3)
Race 6
6 Retrograde
7 Abbot
8 Mollica
Secondary (5, 2, 3, 4, 11)
This 7-Furlong sprint on the turf is a very competitive race with eight of the 12 starters at least having some chance of figuring in the outcome. Stormin Maclean is listed as the morning line favorite, but I think if he goes off at 5/2 he’d be underlayed. There are a bunch of middle odds horses with decent outs. Yummy Bear seems more likely in the money than in the win slot considering his 1 for 17 record. Same sort of issue with Lucky Town, Baseline and Steamboat Bill. I’m looking at the long shot Retrograde in the win slot. He had one start on the turf in 2016, and although it wasn’t much, he showed his improvement in his first two races of this year. Nobody trainer Miguel Vera managed to attract Irad Ortiz for the ride and that has to be seen as a real positive. Given he’s lightly raced and on the improve, he’s worth a look at 15-1 morning line. Abbot seems solid in this event, making only his second start of the year. His turf starts from 2016 were impressive and the very capable Christophe Clement takes the blinkers off today. Mollica showed nice improvement when finally moved to the grass and should be a lot of the speed in this race.
Race 7
9 U Rock It
5 Danny’s Rush
1 Bats Cleanup
Secondary (4, 8)
Race 8
9 Disco Partner
3 Grand Arch
6 Offering Plan
Secondary (1, 8, 10)
This edition of the Forbidden Apple stakes attracted a nice field of 10 turf runners. Disco Partner looks like the horse to beat but will probably go off at fairly low odds. He’s a Grade 3 winner but if there’s a potential knock he’s only got one race in his last ten at a route distance. He is 5 of 9 on the BEL turf and has beaten some decent turf runners in doing so. The only longshot I’ve got in the mix is Bondurant. He has a tendency to run somewhat evenly but he always seems to be in the mix and he’s 3 of 5 at the distance. I’ll use him if he stays at high odds.
A small but talented field of runners goes in the Dwyer at a mile on the main track. I’m giving the nod to Practical Joke coming out of the key Kentucky Derby. Practical Joke is 0 for 3 this year, but was competitive in all his races and should relish this cutback in distance. The obvious second choice is Battalion Runner who ran very well in the Wood and has a nice series of works for the return today. The tough Pletcher/Valasquez combo makes this one a must use in the horizontals.
Race 7
2 Mind Your Biscuits
1 Stallwalkin’ Dude
4 Tommy Macho
7 Unified
It’s hard to pick against Mind Your Biscuits who won the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in March and was third in last year’s BC Sprint, but this is a fairly deep field and there are a few others worth a look. Stallwalkin’ Dude has a penchant for the distance and the BEL dirt and certainly has the class to compete with this group. My price pick is Tommy Macho, a horse that has been competitive in Graded races this year, and should relish the cutback to the 7F distance of this race. Losing to Mor Spirit in the Metropolitan certainly doesn’t downgrade the horse, and he really was up against it in the Carter where speed held up the whole way. He’s worth a long look today.
Race 8
12 Sistercharlie
9 Dynatail
8 New Money Honey
Secondary (2, 5, 10)
In this very competitive renewal of the Belmont Oaks, I’m leaning toward the one of the Euro imports, Sistercharlie. She won at G2 at Saint Cloud in April and returned to run a troubled second in a G1 at Chantilly. While her Timeform ratings in those races are not as high as some others in here, she is on the improve and Chad Brown has a tendency to improve these Euro imports even more. Given there are four Chad Brown runners, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him dominate the race. My longshot prospect is Dynatail. She hasn’t been with quite the competition that some of the others have, but he figures suggest she can compete here. I think she’s worth a look at the odds.
Race 9
6 Shaman Ghost
5 Follow Me Crev
2 Matt King Coal
Secondary (4)
While I didn’t think the Suburban came up particularly strong, it could be a competitive race. Shaman Ghost runs nothing but graded races these days, and has only finished out of the money once, in last year’s Suburban. This year’s renewal doesn’t have horses the likes of Effinex, and that has to make Shaman Ghost look a lot better. Unfortunately, the horses that could make a race of it are likely to be well backed behind the favorite, so a price is unlikely.
Race 10
3 Homesman
2 Ticonderoga
4 Oscar Performance
Secondary (1, 7, 9)
Aidan O’Brien brings a few over for Belmont’s big day, including Homesman. The Kentucky bred has been a Group winner in Ireland, and gets Lasix for today’s run. He has good figures and has already proven successful at the distance. The longshot play is Ticonderoga. Chad Brown though well enough of the horse to place him in the BC Juvenile Turf, and gets a good rider switch today to Castellano. Worth a look.
