Race 1      2-4-1

Little Popsie cuts back a furlong after losing ground in the stretch first time out. Pletcher is about as good with second time maidens as first. So Noted got squeezed back early but showed a furious close to get second. That indicates good talent. True Bet is looking to break his maiden in his seventh start after finishing third in half of his previous starts. Certainly has the talent; question is does he have the will.

Race 2      6-5-9

Barrel Roll raced better than expected for a Mott firster and should improve second time, especially with the the additions of blinkers and Lasix. Trainer/jock combo has been successful lately. March On was the leader at the mile call last out. That race was a big improvement and the figures say competitive. Undertherain showed improvement when moved to the turf and current works suggest condition is there.

Race 3      3-6-7

Bella the Bandit figures best at the distance and the price level. Repeat of 4/16 race makes her most dangerous. Bileaps and Bounds has plenty of speed but may have some challengers that push him a bit too hard. Still she’s well-suited to the distance and track and is at the right price. Sacred Success has a liking for Belmont and looks to be in good shape considering she only had one start in 2014 and is only making her third start of 2015. Have to believe she’s past her physical issues.

Race 4      3-7-2

S’marvelous had a rough trip when over his head last out but still showed interest. Time before that he ran well and was taken by RuRod who is sharp off the claim. Erik the Red has looked good in 2015 for Linda Rice and definitely figures in this field. Flag On the Play ran huge first off the claim for Servis. Steps up a bit in condition but has the figures to be competitive.

Race 5      5-6-8

Drago’s Best is a first rate turf sprinter who should be able to use his speed to great advantage here. Partly Mocha has been consistent at the sprint distances and likes BEL. Certainly figures at this level. Night Officer may be a bit of a stretch off the layoff but Levine is good off the extended layoff and does have some good back class.

Race 6      3-9-4

Leroy Jr. looks for three in a row off a price drop for Chad Brown. Repeat of last puts him right there. American Creed goes first off the claim for Abby Adsit and she usually improves them coming back. Bug Juice switches to Irad for this trip. Has been an effective campaigner for a while and is worth a look at the odds.

Race 7      2-4-6

Dekalb County smashed through a maiden claiming field last out and looks to continue against winners. Positive that Pletcher moves to open starter allowance instead of looking for a NW1X. Surfspun has two strong seconds in the 2015 campaign and is certainly eleigible to break through today. Danzig Storm is another eligible for NW2 trying this field. He invades from KEE after being grabbed by Joan Scott from top trainer Mark Casse.

Race 8      3-10-1A

Maura’s Pass ran much better on the turf and steps up a few notches looking for her first with winners. Continued turf form makes her a player. Resolutely is the longshot contender in this race. She looked good with winners after taking a while to break her maiden and has every chance to upset today. Moonlit Sonnet shows a liking for the BEL turf but has been at this condition a while. Not as attractive as the top two but has the talent to be there at the end.

Race 9      5-2-8

Rick Ant continues his drop in search of the maiden win. Um Boom Ba Bay puts the blinkers on for the second start . Switch to Irad is positive. Lightning Ron is making his 11th start but in this field he is not without a chance.

Today’s card is as good as any card you’ll see this year. Last year’s top filly, Untapable, is running. The BC Classic winner Bayern is going. And of course 2015’s leading candidate for three year old of the year, American Pharaoh is running. Many of the races are super-competitive, and picking winners will be no easy task, but here goes.

Race 1      5-3-1

Donworth is going for the fourth time and with each successive race he has shown improvement. First time at BEL but he’s shown adaptability on different surfaces. He’s already graded stakes placed and his best figure tops this field. Japan just broke his maiden for Mott in his third start. Given he’s a trainer not noted for getting the best out of horse first time, now that Japan has shown some ability we can expect him to keep it up. Stanford ran a strong second to International Star in the Louisiana Derby and has been given some time to continue his development. He would be no surprise in this race.

Race 2      4-2-7

Tiz Shea D ran smartly in the Perer Pan after showing he wasn’t quite ready in the spring. He’s returned to the races in great shape and should thrive with the slight cutback in distance. Wisecracker broke his maiden impressively and he has the figures to compete in this NW1X. Tommy Macho broke his maiden at second asking and gets a rider upgrade to Castellano. I like the potential for improvement.

Race 3      3-4-1

Competitive Edge will be a strong favorite in this Grade 2 event. He was a winner at seven furlongs first time out this year and followed that with a convincing victory in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day. He’s undefeated, loves the distance and has a versatile running style. Two Weeks Off was outkicked in the Peter Pan but is two for two at the seven furlong distance. Ready for Rye won the Grade 2 Swale impressively but faltered in the Bay Shore. He’s got a win over the BEL dirt and has good tactical speed. Dangerous here.

Race 4      4-1-11-10

The Grade 3 Jaipur at six furlongs on the turf is full of quality runners. Ageless will be the longshot play here, being a mare going against the boys. Last time she ran in mixed company she only missed 3/4 of a length in the BC Turf Sprint. She’s almost a 50% winner overall, better than 50% on the turf, and one for one at the distance. Her figures are a match for any horse in here, and she’s graded stakes placed. Power Alert just won the G3 Turf Sprint at CD and stretches out another furlong today. He’s got great speed and has become a different horse with the addition of Lasix. Regular jock Leparoux decided to ride the 4, but the switch to Johnny V is positive. Spring to the Sky is always competitive at the distance and on the BEL turf. Obviously needed his last and should improve today. Channel Marker at 20-1 ML is interesting for the back holes.

Race 5      4-2-5

The G1 Ogden Phipps has a small but very elite field. Last year’s dominant three year old filly, Untapable will achieve odds on favoritism and on her best day she is better than any other horse in the race. But, her two races in Arkansas showed vulnerability and there are a couple in here that seem to be on the improve. She’s probably not a bet at anything approaching here ML odds, but if she was ever vulnerable, today might be the day. Wedding Toast came out in 2015 as a horse that has kicked some of the problems that held her back in 2014. Her last two figures say this race is not a foregone conclusion for the favorite. Princess Violet was a later blooming three year old who has become competitive at graded levels and she shows a definite taste for BEL. The upset possibility.

Race 6      8-5-10-2

The Brooklyn has always been one of my favorite races ever since I watched the mighty Forego make one of his patented late moves to win the race. This edition features a couple of last year’s talented three year olds in V E Day and Wicked Strong, as well as a couple of quality older stakes horses. V E Day gets the nod today. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has had great success with the turf to dirt move, especially with this horse. Yes, there is a the question of how well he’ll like the mile and a half, and whether he’ll get the right pace to run at, but he is a winner at BEL and getting ready to get his four year old season on the winning track. His stablemate Effinex should have no issue with the distance and rides a two race winning streak coming into this one. He’s a horse that looks like he’s developed over the winter and should be a major contender. Sky Kingdom comes from the West Coast off a win at this distance at SA. That last race was a monster and if he runs that race here he’s going to be tough to keep out. Red Rifle is the sneaky horse here. He hasn’t gone the distance on the dirt, but he has successfully on the turf. He may be the one hurt most by any sort of pace battle, but he’s a legitimate contender in here.

Race 7      9-7-8-2

Promise Me Silver comes into the race 8 for 8, but also hasn’t raced at the mile. She seems to be ratable and hard to run down once she gets the lead. Mike Smith takes the mount today. Condo Commando may be overrated in this field. She’ll certainly work to get to the front, but holding on against this group may be a task. Still, she’s a quality horse and the distance cutback shouldn’t hurt. Shook Up ran well in the Kentucky Oaks and the FG Oaks before that. She’s a horse that could also benefit from the distance cutback. Wonder Gal is the longshot possibility. She raced very well in the BC Juvenile fillies and didn’t embarrass herself first out at AQU. She looks like one of the ones eligible for improvement.

Race 8      6-3-4-2

Filimbi is listed at 6-1 ML in this year’s Just A Game, and for my money she’s overlayed. She’s 5 for 8 in turf miles and one of one at BEL. She’s going to be much better suited at the mile and her mile figures are outstanding. At the price, she’s worth a look. Discreet Marq looked good in her season debut in the Beaugay and is another well suited to the mile. She has a liking for the BEL surface and may be the one to catch in the stretch. Coffee Clique is the defending champ and comes in third off the layoff. She’s become a mile specialist and has the figures to be a major factor. Sandiva is 12-1 ML and is definitely better than that. She’s likely to be one of the ones closing and while she hasn’t won at the distance she may be part of the verticals.

Race 9      5-1-4-9

The Metropolitan is always a quality race and this year is no different. The X factor horse is Tamarkuz. He has blossomed on the dirt and his top figures are as good as any horse in the field. Of course when you are racing against the likes of Tonalist, Wicked Strong and Bayern and you’re generally unknown 10-1 is about as good as you could expect. He has been here a while and should be acclimated. He gets first Lasix and McLaughlin is 4 of 5 with shippers to North America. Private Zone is a horse you have to love. He goes to the front and often refuses to be caught. He’s well suited for the mile and it’s hard to criticize a horse that tries as hard as he does. Tonalist came out in 2015 and won the Westchester mile. This is a quality thoroughbred and if he stays healthy he should have a lot to say about horse of the year. Honor Code is the biggest closer in the race and if the speed does falter he could be the one picking up the pieces. That leaves out last year’s BC Classic winner Bayern, and that’s not to say he’s out of luck, but frankly he doesn’t seem to be in the shape of the top picks.

Race 10   2-3-5

Today’s co-feature is the 10 furlong Manhattan. Twilight Eclipse may appear to have trouble winning but a lot of that had to do with a horse named Main Sequence. That horse is not in this race and I think that will make all the difference. His figures are consistent and high quality and while he faces a quality field, this may just be his year. Finnegans Wake is one of those quality contenders and already has three graded wins this season including the Turf Classic at CD. He’s another with consistent, high level figures and may have the best closing kick in the field. Big Blue Kitten hasn’t slowed down much as a 7 year old. He likes the BEL turf and at the top of his game he’s right there.

Race 11   6-8-1-5

This is the race everyone has been waiting for, and I’ll make it as easy as possible. American Pharaoh is either a freak destined to outrun his breeding or a horse whose breeding will catch up with him at the mile and a half. AP will go to the front and if he is the super horse his press extolls he won’t look back, and make no mistake that is a real possibility. So my advice is play the race one way or the other (or both). I’m leaning toward playing the “California Chrome/Big Brown/etc scenario” and playing others in the top three. If you remember all the way back to the Derby I was a big fan of Frosted and today is redemption baby. He had one of the horror trips in the Derby and ran farther than anyone else and still finished fourth. He has a stamina point in his dosage and should have no problem at the mile and a half. Materiality is another that had no outs in the Derby but was highly regarded coming in. He’s another that still has to be given a chance to run his best race. Based on his running style he may decide to go with AP early and we’ll find out if he has the stuff to outfinish him. Mubtaahij is really much better than he looked in the Derby and is another with favorable mile and a half breeding. He will be underbet and I expect him to show far better than he did in the Derby. And if any horse other than one of these four wins I’m heading back to handicapping school.

Race 12   11-12-5

If you still have any energy left, Umgiyo looks like the solid choice here. He has consistent, quality figures and there is no shame in getting beat in the Turf Classic by Finnegan’s Wake. Market Outlook is on the improve for top turf trainer Chad Brown. Depeche Chat is about a 30% winner and goes for high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Figures say competitive.

Race 13   10-5-1-6

The finale is a mess of a race. I went with the obvious choice, Social Inclusion. He puts the blinkers on for his second start in 2015. First time out he ran well at a mile at GP and the cutback in distance should be to his favor. He’s got plenty of tactical speed. Spa City Fever just keeps on going and looks to make it two in a row. Green Gratto is the likely front runner although he might be a bit up against it at 7 furlongs. Easy to Say comes off a big win at MTH and with only four starts is eligible to improve.

It looks like another competitive day. Lots possibilities though.

Race 1      9-2-10-8

Galroyale comes back off a long vacation and drops into a MSW for the 2015 debut. Some concern that she bled through the Lasix last out but she’s back on the turn and at a shorter sprint distance. Unforgettable Mark drops in price after setting most of the fractions. Perhaps the easier field gets him to the wire in front. Kitty’s Pearl ran a good one last out despite a stumbling start. Fits the distance and class. Lirica Heat has a lot of starts but is usually part of the picture. Should be winging up front and can’t be discounted.

Race 2      4-2-6

Eastern Rose dominated a short field last out and seems to be improving. Clothes Fall Off made her 2015 debut an impressive one, running a new top. Like the chances today. Predicate has the best figures but is 9 of 13 in the money but with only one win. Better in the money prospects.

Race 3      1-6-3-10

Tiz Afleet jumped way up in finish time after switching to the turf and small improvement may get him to the winners circle. Kensington Court looked much better second time out and drops out of MSW for this spot. Well bred for the lawn and the distance. Number One missed by inches last out as the favorite and the switch to Castellano may get him over the hump. Lucky Leroy Brown is newly gelded, drops from MSW down to MCL and isn’t too far away from the top ones.

Race 4      6-7-2

Chasintheblues seems to have improved since breaking his maiden. Should be near the lead and has shown courage in the stretch. Boston Strong improved when dropped to a sprint and has a strong kick in the stretch. Pierce’s Prize looks best bred for the turf and the distance and may be an attractive price.

Race 5      8-1-5

Longfor the City just missed last out. He should be the front speed and the claim by DJ has to be in his favor. Frost Jordan has some competetive races against open company and has the best last out figure. Sea Raven raced well at BEL last out and is right behind Frost Jordan with his figure.

Race 6      8-3-5

Soul House drops down to the claiming ranks in search of win number two. Dominates the field on finish times. Prophet’s Cat is a somewhat pathetic 1 for 20, but seems to be a better horse on the turf. Perhaps a stretch but at 15-1 worth thinking about. Keep Me Grounded looks to be the one second off the claim for Servis. He was over his head last out but fits much better in this group.

Race 7      5-1-11-2

Kacy Lauren improved on the turf and it helps to have Chad Brown in your corner. Splendid Gold just missed on the turf first out and returns to that surface for today’s trip. Congress Park has the best figures and the works look like she should be ready off the vacation. Aussie Prayer cuts back in distance and given the speed she’s shown could be a factor here.

Race 8      5-1-3

Global Positioning ran well first time on the BEL strip. Never seems to run a bad one. All Is Number has competitive figures and fits the distance and conditions. New York Chrome goes first time with winners and is improving with each start.

Race 9     7-5-6-1A

Made in Detroit is all the speed in this race and based on that we’ll give him the chance to set an easy pace and run off with the race. World Approval comes out of a Grade 2 race at CD on Derby Day where he was flying late. Divisidero comes out of two Graded races, the last one a win in the aformentioned Grade 2 at CD. Very dangerous. Startup Nation was one of the top two year old turfers last year and we’ll see if Chad Brown brings him back in winning form.

Race 10   6-4-5

Clifton Pleasure drops down after funning decently in his first BEL start. Igotthediscoinme faltered against much better last out but definitely fits with this group. Majestic Guy is looking for the right level, seems to have found it at $16K NW2.

I like today’s  card. All selections are for a fast track and races on the turf.

Race 1      3-1A-6

The first race is one of the early two year old races. I’m favoring the two Bustin Stones horses trained by Michael Mareina. They both sold for nine times the stud fee and they’ve obviously been working as a tandem. I like their pattern – a fast three furlong work followed by some good four furlong workouts. I wonder about the filly running with the boys, and she may not be as strong as the others. Rajiv Maragh rides the Mareina colt and that looks like a positive. The RuRod entry has to be given some consideration.

Race 2      4-3

Darling Bridezilla has a good turn of speed and is in top form. Ginnny’s Grey drops in half for this run and goes second off the claim for 2015’s hot trainer Danny Gargan. Go Olivia Go is another dropper. She’s been off for five months after running in 42 races in the last two years. The works are nothing special and it’s been quite a while since we could see how she runs off a layoff, but I like the potential of a well-rested horse. My Donna Jean is the last of the class droppers and can be used.

Race 3      3-2-5

Mail goes for Chad Brown and Ken Caramouche, a 43% combo. He has consistent figures and has one good race over the BEL surface. Mylute has a steady diet of stakes races and goes first time for Pletcher. Integrity has a ton of early foot and just a little trouble finishing, but is still the dangerous speed.

Race 4      2-4-5-9

Nic N Jr hasn’t run a bad one in a while and the Lezcano /Cibelli combination is 6 for 13. Ducks Dock is the closer in the field and with a clear run can be dangerous in the stretch. Weekend Express didn’t run horribly first time with winners and with some improvement can make a dent. Cuppa Joe could be the controling pace and may not back up against this group.

Race 5      5-7-9

Cody’s Notes made an uninspired first start in 2015 but improvment can be expected second time out. Crescent Street should have the lead but has looked heartless in the stretch. This group may be an easier puzzle to solve. Fordham Bound drops out of a straight maiden. The works are steady and he is worth a look. If Plundering makes it in, he is a contender.

Race 6      7-8-4

Letsgotovegas crushed her maiden field and with small improvement should defeat this group. Edith dropped last out in search of a win and almost got it. Second time may be the charm. Busted Handle came up with nice figure on the last race on the turf and if she transfers that form to the dirt she’s competitive. Underthemoonlight ran well at this level three back and should be competitive here.

Race 7      8-2-1

Compliance Officer comes off a six month break. Last time he did that he ran fourth in a stakes. This is a decidedly easier field. Has a penchant for BEL. Asset Inflation is three of four on the BEL turf. He’s another coming off a break. Last out he was over his head but is in the right spot today. Dowse’s Beach is always competitive and the works say ready to go.

Race 8      7-3-2

Face the Music improved noticeably with the addition of Lasix and has the best last race figure. Gallery is overlayed at 12-1 ML.  Plenty of early foot and fits the conditions. Competitive in here. Fundamental goes first time with winners for Chad Brown and with a little improvement could have a say in the outcome. Ship Disturber has some good races on the dirt but has decent turf breeding. Worth a look at the odds.

Race 9      6-10-3-5

Polar Axis showed improvement last out on the AQU dirt. 15-1 ML reflects the fact his figures aren’t quite as fast as others in here, but the works are steady and with more improvement no reason this one can’t be a factor at a price. Bold Over ran well first out while failing as the favorite and should be better second time. New York Victory drops out of MSW into a claiming race. He showed a bit of ability and the drop should be in his favor. David Rocks dropped to this level in search of a win last out and ran his best race. Competitive in here.

Race 1      1-5-2

Race 2      1/1A-2-3

Race 3      5-1/1A-6

Race 4      2-4-7

Race 5      7-2-4

Race 6      1/1A-7-6

Race 7      13-9-12

Race 8      3-6-10-1A

Race 9      4-6-3-8

Race 1      3-2-1

Thundering Gale has two wins in three tries at BEL. Chad Brown is great off the layoff and with turf fillies. Little Ariel showed good turf ability last time she was on the grass and gets a top jock in Franco. One Penny Piece ran well at GP and does have a second on the BEL turf.

Race 2      1-3-5

Ghost Swagger has the best last out figure and is bred very well for the distance. Summit Moon was over his head last out but has been competitive at this level. Thomas Knight has four seconds in six starts and looks to break through today.

Race 3      4-5-3

Iknewuweretrouble was claimed last out by Nevin who is 28% first off. Consistent figures lately. White Legend is another who was claimed last out and has been with far better recently. A winner off his best. Bella Fachi does not seem to be a real win type but if she has a favorite track it looks like BEL.

Race 4       1-4-3

The entry of Double the Energy and Lady’s Lunar Luck looks tough here. Double the Energy may be the better of the two. Ave’s Halo drops way down and off his best number is competitive. First Whippoorwill should be one of the pacesetters and may steal this one.

Race 5      6-5-3

Lotsa Noodles is dropping down for this start and has the best last race figure. Ginney’s Grey was taken last out by Danny Gargan who has been unreal with starters this year. Has previous figures that show some talent. Bounty Pink has been with better and is 3 for 3 at BEL.

Race 6      6-4-1

Ack Feisty ran very well first time out for Chad Brown and doesn’t have to improve much to beat this field. Memories of Peter got better when stretched out and has the best last race figure. Apollo Eleven ran his best race when switched to the turf and is competitive in this group.

Race 7      2-4-3

Best Man was taken last out by RuRod and is bumped up a notch in class. Has a win at the distance. In Speight Ofitall has had trouble reaching the winner’s circle, but looks capable in this group. Erik the Red drops down a bit for Linda Rice. Was beating much better in the not too distant past.

Race 8      9-6-1

Barrel of Love has been consistent lately and has figures that dominate this field. Analysis comes off the long layoff for George Weaver who is better than average off the vacation. Figures say he should be in the mix behind the 9. Mark My Way picks an easy spot to make his return. Enjoys the BEL turf.

Race 9      8-2-10

Isthatallthereis jumped up on the turf and is attractive at the ML odds. Fredaq ran well enough to win last out and should improve today. Courageisamajority just missed last out and looks very competitive in here.

Race 1      6-5-3

Flag On the Play was claimed last out by Servis and he is 34% with new arrivals. Alysaro should be one of the horses battling up front. Takes a pretty good drop into this MCL off a long layoff, but Englehart is 21% with horses coming back. Island Therapy failed in the slop last time but has the figures to break through for win number 2.

Race 2      3-2-7

Beyond the Green raced well first time with winners. His breeding suggests a preference for the turf, and that may be enough to break him back to the winners circle. J.C.’s Not Brown puts the blinkers and has the best turf numbers in the field. Bullhead Boy goes for the strong Pletcher/Velasquez combination. Has been with better and we’ll see if the turf makes a difference today.

Race 3      3-1-4

10 year old Be Bullish just keeps on going. The sentimental choice. Attractive Ride is another old veteran. A 25% career winner with the figures to give Be Bullish a run.  American Creed drops down to this level and is competitive off his best.

Race 4      2-8-7 

Magical Miss is far better bred for the turf and distance, and she was well enough thought of to be made the favorite last out. Possible proce horse. Summersault is the horse with the fastest turf number and should be feared here. Bebob Raindrop has a decent start over the BEL turf. Come is off an 8 month layoff, puts the shades on, and works say go.

Race 5      3-4-5

Goodtimehadbyall has consistently good figures and fits the class. Have to wonder why he failed first out for Patrick Reynolds, but I’m willing to give a guy having a good 2015 so far a chance. Doc Almon goes first time for DJ and that is always reason to consider a horse. Has won with better recently. Regulus goes for the strong combo of RuRod and Irad. Has had success at BEL.

Race 6       8-6-3

Whale Rock just missed first time out after a troubled start and has the best time of the group. So Noted goes first out for Charlton Baker. I like the workout pattern where he shows a speedy three furlongs early and some good four and five furlong works. At 6-1 ML I like his prospects. True Bet has been close as this level for a while. Now he’s newly gelded and that’s enough to give him a shot here.

Race 7      10-1-2-8

Runaway Posse goes for low provile connections but has been turfing with some success, including a win over the BEL turf. Macagone is coming in as a new gelding and has had competitive efforts on the turf, including a win at Belmont. Looks like all the front speed here. Thurgood makes his season debut for Clement. He looked good last year, has nine more months of development and plenty of room for improvement. Sonnyandpally is looking for three in a row. Has been struggling with NW1X but has competitive turf numbers.

Race 8      4-2-3

My Won Love is better suited at this level. Has the front speed and competitive numbers. Here’s Zealicious was brilliant in 2014 but has been struggling since the claim by Chatterpaul. I’m banking she’s better on the BEL dirt than the AQU inner. Lady Gracenote drops a few notches since the claim by Diane Balsamo. Still, she’s a dangerous competitor.

Race 9      5-11-6

Stormy Sky drops out of MSW into the MCL ranks and her one race on the BEL truf was not that bad. At 6-1 ML I like the possibilities. Your Turn has one of the better turf figures and should be coming at the end. Another interesting longshot for me. Lirica Heat has a lot of starts and generally I don’t favor 10+ start maidens, but perhaps the change of scenery helps.

It’s Preakness Day and most of the attention is over at Pimlico, but Belmont has a great betting card.  As for the Preakness, I don’t believe there is any insight to be had. American Pharaoh will go off odds-on, and it is hard to argue he shouldn’t be based on his Derby performance. The only real question is whether Dortmund’s bout of colic was enough to keep him from running his best race. If you can buy that, then the race looks like it is between those two. Firing Line? Is there a reason to believe he will run better and turn the tables on AP? I’m not sure why. The cutback in distance has to benefit AP and in an eight horse field the inside post should be irrelevant. Even if AP doesn’t break on top, he should be able to establish a good tracking positon. The question is, is there a way to bet the race to make money? Perhaps a targeted superfecta is the way to go. I’d play it

Dortmund, AP/Dort, AP/ Firing Line, Divining Rod, Danzig Moon/Firing Line, Divining Rod, Danzig Moon.

I’d gamble a saver on

Dort, AP/Dort, AP/ FL, DR, DM/all

And finally, I’d play the better value super

Dortmund/AP/FL, DR, DM/FL, DR, DM

But I guarantee any bets I make are action only. It’s not a great betting race based on my handicapping.

BEL

Race 1      10-6-7

Media Kid has the best combination of speed and finish and makes a drop in price. Favors the BEL surface. Arc Above goes first time for Contessa and should improve in his second start of the year. Holy Invader beat a few of these last out and looks for two in a row.

Race 2      4-5-2

Matuszak makes a precipitous drop in his 2015 debut and if the best Matuszak shows up he’s the main threat. Harpoon takes the fire sale drop for Pletcher and he looks like he could use the relief. Well thought of at one time, but is in a more likely spot today. Kowboy Boots is another that goes into an easier spot today. Competitive off his best fig.

Race 3      6-1-3-5

Gotachancetodance had a strange loss last out when leading comfortably in the stretch. If she can stay on the track the entire trip she’s got a big shot. Lady Anita is making her seventh start but has the best last race number. Arana takes the blinkers off and drops into the MCL ranks looking for a win. The Ghost Bride puts the shades on and could pick up some pieces in the stretch.

Race 4      5-2-3

Jubilant Vision drops into the claiming ranks and last time she was at this level she ran a good one. Familyofroses has had success at BEL and at the distance. Just Got Out puts the blinkers on for new trainer Jeremiah Englehart who is 26% with new stable arrivals.

Race 5      7-3-2-10

Memories of Peter finished last year on an up note and has been working well for the 2015 debut. Brother O’Connell comes out in his 2015 debut for Clement and gets Lasix for this trip. Talledega has done his best running at Belmont and at the 12-1 ML is worth a look. Bugle Blues had a troubled start last out but showed great closing ability. Should have no problem with the distance.

Race 6      4-1

Room for Me gets the nod off the best two last race figures. La Verdad loves the BEL surface and hasn’t run a bad race on a fast track.

Race 7      12-3-9

Kabang has the best last out figure but will have to get a strategic ride from Saez out of the 12. Elmazeed is a first-timer for McLaughlin who is 17% with that move. Strong workouts say ready. Street Moxie is newly gelded and puts the blinkers on. First race at KEE was a good effort and with focus he may be dangerous today.

Race 8      4-2-3-1

Dreaming as Always goes first time with winners and has consistent figures. Should be in good condition and with slight improvement he’s in the photo. Race and Shine has had some trouble at the NW1X level but seemed to jump up some on the turf. Gets a chance here. Detail looked good on the turf first time with winners and with Chad Brown in his corner should be competitive. Moonlit Sonnet is another trying to get past the NW1X but has a

Race 9      8-6-9-5

Cease  has been a useful horse, although lately he hasn’t been able to find the winner’s circle. He is just one of the horses in here that has the figures to win. Matrooh won at first asking off a year and a half layoff and he came back to run competitively at this level. Never discount a Chad Brown trainee. Anchor Down ran very well in his 2015 debut and no doubt Pletcher will have him wound up. Street Lord is 2 for 2 at BEL and can’t be completely eliminated.

Race 10   3-6-8

Sunset Glow is a Grade 1 winner. Has the best numbers and should improve second off the layoff. Lady Shipman has tons of speed, but the concern is being compromised by the equivalent speed of Sunset Glow. Still, she looks like she could be a good one. Isabella Sings would not relax last out; she could pick up the pieces if she runs a more relaxed race.

Race 11   4-5-3

Curious Cal is competitive off his best. Brass Pear puts the blinkers on and should be the one to catch. Round puts the blinkers on for Mott. He likes the BEL surface and his last race was his best. That race puts him right there.

Race 12   11-3-5

Winter Wish has one good turf race and that was over the BEL surface where she was beaten by Distorted Beauty. Her 2015 debut was useful and with some improvement she could take this field to the wire. Little Mary Ellen drops in price for this one and she is tied for the best turf number in the field. Weekend Hottie drops in price and puts the blinkers on for Barclay Tagg. Ran a good one last time and is another with a good enough turf number to win.

I apologize for a lack of analysis. Be assured I put as much time into handicapping as ever.

Race 1      2-1-4

Race 2      4-3-1

Race 3      8-6-1

Race 4      3-7-8-9

Race 5      9-4-6

Race 6      5-1-2

Race 7      9-5-7

Race 8      6-7-9

Race 9      10-3-9

Race 1      4-1-6

Snake Pit is listed as an odds-on 3/5 on the ML. Yes, he has the best numbers and he’s making a slight drop in price, but he’s been off three months and the works aren’t spectacular. Still, you can assume DJ took the time to get the horse straightened out and if he runs his best, he’s a winner. Chief Energy hasn’t hit the winner’s circle in a while, but his numbers have been consistent and he should be in condition. Grandpa Len raced four days ago, was claimed by Nevin and if he goes no reason to expect he won’t be competitive.

Race 2      9-6-7

Summer Breezing has been off since SAR but Clement is a solid 20% off the return. He’s likely to be winging out in front and his past numbers top this field. Gunderson was grabbed by Eddie Kenneally last out. He’s been a little short but in the mix. Chances today. Isn’tlovejustgrand makes his seasonal debut. He’s the most experienced at BEL and has shown he can run well off the layoff.

Race 3      6-3-4

The Pulse ships up from LRL where he won two of his first three starts. Horse on the improve. Glacken Too just missed last out and with improvement should be right there. Spa City Fever makes the drop in price into this spot and has had good success at BEL.

Race 4      2-6-3

Noble Hustle drops into a sprint where he is probably better suited. On the improve. Bankers Boss is coming off a long layoff. RuRod is 29% off the vacation and the works indicate ready. What’s Up Big Guy is the most experienced in the group and is newly gelded. May make the difference.

Race 5      5-3-6-10

Nimble Foot went off as the favorite in his first stateside start but left himself too much to do. With a better spot today he looks competitive. Kitzys Rocket doesn’t look well bred for the turf but the horse has looked good in her first two. Numbers say she’s one of the chosen. Tiztalented goes first out for Clement. Well bred and a good workout pattern.  Elated is the other Clement runner. Development since last season should put her in contention.

Race 6      4-5-6

Munasara adds a furlong in distance but that shouldn’t be an issue. Looks best in this group. Delightful Joy failed in a G2 last time out but drops into a better spot today. So You Say finally broke her maiden last out with a big new top. Looks to keep rolling.

Race 7      9-4-1

Exclusive Strike has been running with Graded company, but in his 8 YO season looks to open against some easier company. Off his best he’s a winner. Upgrade has found the right level and the two races at GP were both good. Sinatra looks to do it his way. Already has a start on the BEL turf this year and that should be a big plus.

Race 8      3-5-1

A good field is lined up for the Diablo. We’ll give the nod to Palace. He has been in almost nothing but graded races. Is proven off the layoff. Palace Malice is finally making the debut off the long layoff. If he’s fully recovered he’s the classiest runner in the field. More suited for the route, but can’t discount his chances today. The entry of Classic Salsa and Stallwalkin’ Dude looks strong for Jacobson. Could be picking up pieces if the top two falter.

Race 9      11-4-5-2

Reach for Yield is well bred for the turf and goes for the powerful Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz combination. That is enough to put him on top. King Gatto has some good turf numbers and is well bred for the seven furlongs. Get Out of Town is the longshot addition here. Has good turf breeding and his one turf start is better than looked. Indy Strike comes up from the mid-Atlantic and looks well suited for the turf. Maybe a backhole play.