Race 1      1-7-8-4

Change of Command has been dormant since May at GP, but right before that was running in Graded stakes. Has a forwardly placed runing style and that was solid yesterday. At his best he is the fastest in the field. Holy Invader had been running in cheap races until the last two, and was competitive with horses at today’s level. Dreams Cut Short was claimed last out by Contessa and could improve under his care. Shock Leader has been in the mix with better, may need to show more courage in the stretch.

Race 2      9-2-1A

La Nina was over her head in the Astoria but she will show better on the turf with MSW runners. Fly Girl looks well bred for the sprint distance and the turf and has been working well for Graham Motion. Sally’s News ran well in her first start. Took the lead in the stretch but was run down. Should improve today.

Race 3      4-1-5

Scarly Charly ran well after a five month vacation and fits the conditions well. Integrity will be up front. Was claimed last out by RuRod and he is 29% first off the claim. Should enjoy the distance cutback.Tenango was a winner last out at this level and is competitive on his best day.

Race 4      3-9-8

Point Hope makes the big drop for Linda Rice. Ran a huge one two back and with a repeat should dominate the field. Yakov ran better than looked last out and should enjoy the distance cutback. Spider Roll is another dropping through the floor and is competitive off his best effort.

Race 5      8-1-4

Elated should be finishing best of all. Has competitive numbers and gets Castellano who is over 40% when riding for Clement. Wonder Brew ran well on the yielding BEL turf last out and slight improvement will put him over the top. Forensic has a lot of starts and is always close – more likely in the verticals.

Race 6      2-5-7

Piccolo Flats was over her head last out but in the previous race won at a similar level. Have to like her chances today. Mei Ling ran very well first time out in 2015. Takes the blinkers off for the Pletcher/Velasquez combination. Delightful Joy was overmatched in the Beaumont and in her last stumbled at the start, losing her best chance to win. Better racing luck puts her in the mix.

Race 7      8-6-4

Ulysses won his maiden impressively but didn’t run well in a restricted stakes next out. The drop to claiming ranks should allow us to see his best. Fracula was grabbed by Michael Pino last out and he is an eye-catching 24% first off the claim. Won at this level last out at CD. Broughton Kitten was gelded since his last. He had run with much better on the West Coast and should fit well at this level.

Race 8      8-2-3

Mighty Zealous is a hard trying horse who may have a mild case of seconditis. Numbers say he is fastest off his best but he may not have the most courage when it comes to passing horses. Fox Rox has a good win percentage and is well intentioned for this distance. Escape to the Moon is another that has been close without getting over the top. Still, have to respect the figures.

Race 9      9-8-7-3

Reign has been running creditably with MSW, finally makes the drop to the claiming ranks. That could propel him over the top. Egyptian Magic goes second time for Linda Rice. Didn’t make the distance in her two turf tries so should appreciate the cutback. Dia de Encanta was taken last out by Bruce Brown. Has been close with slightly lower animals, but shows a  lot of willingness to make an effort. Your Turn looks more apt for the verticals.

All selections are made for a fast track and races on the turf. Selections are before scratches.

Race 1      4-6-3

Clearly Cheating showed good speed at the longer distance last out but faded badly. She cuts way back in distance today, and drops out of MSW to a low level MCL. Could be the interesting horse. Wild Street Girl had some trouble at the start last out but the race prior she ran well. Drops to her lowest level today. Night Time Slipper is approaching professional status. Should be the one to catch.

Race 2      2-7-6-8

Megsamelia has good front speed and has run consistent figures in 2015. Big drop in price today suggests she’s going to be tought to beat. First Whippoorwill didn’t respnd well to Carmouche and gets the switch back to Franco today. Is a BEL winner and I like the latest work. Starship Pleasant was with better last year and looks a little better than the 12-1 ML suggests. Have to have some faith in Servis to back the horse too. Bargaining Table has two decent races at BEL since returning from the layoff. Record on the turf looks positive.

Race 3      6-5-2

Ginny’s Grey was claimed by Danny Gargan two back and he brought her back slightly higher last time. She ran well, looks to be in good shape, and he figures at the top of her game top this field. Danley Bay won three in a row, but has been over his head last two. In a much more sensible spot today. Bounty Pink won at this level and distance last out and has strung together multiple wins in the past.

Race 4      7-9-4

Robe has the top last race number and with only two starts has lots of room for improvement. March On has been competitive on the BEL turf and goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan who has been doing very well first off the claim. Angel Choir just missed last time in her first start of 2015 and with improvement figures to be right there.

Race 5      9-2-5

The Imposter was claimed last out by Jeremiah Englehart who is 25% in that category. Puts the blinkers on today and expecting a top performance. Hidden View gets the switch to Castellano who rode him to his last win. Drops into a NW3 event and that may be enough to propel him over the top. Blarp was a winner last out with NW2L and takes the natural step up. Has the figures to repeat.

Race 6      9-8-2

Alysaro destroyed a $25K NW2 field last time and drops to $14K for the NW3 try. Hard to figure why the drop, but a repeat performance makes him a winner. Roundupthelute looks for two in a row for DJ. Is another who dropped to win and drops again. Oldwick comes over from CD. Penultimate race says he’s a runner.

Race 7      9-6-8

Blacktype definitely fits this group and is underated at 6-1 ML. On his best day he is as fast as any horse in the field. Enterprising comes in from CD via the West Coast. He is a Grade 2 winner and ran better than looked in the Grade 3 American. If he takes to the BEL turf he’s a dangerous competitor, and at 10-1 ML he’s the interesting horse. Mr. Speaker earned the ML favorite role but his 2015 races give me reaon to pause. Still, a Grade 1 winner has to be given respect.

Race 8      12-1-4

Lady of Victory is up against it from the far outside but looked good on the good turf last out. If she can get into the race she’ll be a major factor. Josdesanimaux lost her rider last out but before that won two in a row after moving into Chad Brown’s barn. Figures to be in a good pressing spot and has plenty of stretch kick. Orient Harbor has been kicking around at the NW1X level for a while and that is on the negative side, but he has been running close and with a little improvement, he could be a factor.

Race 9      11-2-12

Polar Axis made a big jump forward when moved to the turf and a slightly improved effort puts him in the mix at 20-1 ML. El Genio has one good race on the turf. Figures to be the speed and might be tough to catch. Canarsie Kid was gelded during the long layoff. His initial turf start last year was encouraging and if he comes out in shape he should be a factor.

Race 1      3-6-5

Dusk to Dawn came out in 2015 vastly improved since last year. He looks like the front speed and I like his chances with the slight cutback in distance. So Noted had a little trouble at the start last out but still ran a bang-up race. Looks to be in good condition and is as fast as anything in the race. Chief of State seems to need a bit of pace to run at and if he gets it he will be dangerous.

Race 2      8-5-3

Mr. Palmer was claimed last out by Patrick Reynolds and makes a huge drop today. Off his best he dominates this field. Noble Doss is consistent and past figures put him as a solid contender. Ortiz stays for the ride. Moneyinyour Pocket ran well with this group last out. More likely in the verticals.

Race 3      3-1-2

Big Looie was claimed last our by DJ. His win at this price two back would make him the top figure in the field. Don Dulce has been consistent but will need some pace to run at. Top Billing comes out of the G3 Pimlico Special and should be right at home in this field.

Race 4      3-8-2

 Skye Saratoga had some trouble at the start of the last race but still ran a strong effort. Drops in price today and looks primed for a good effort. Lady Liana ran well first time out in 2015. Jumps up a bit in price but should handle it well. Saratoga Karaoke wired a $50K starter allowance field last out and off her best fits well with this group..

Race 5     4-7-9-1A

Lady Kreesa should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Is very competitive at this level. Summerdale won with better at SAR last year and showed a good run in her first out of this year. Should show some improvement today. Lakeside Sunset jumps out of the statebred ranks. Hasn’t run a bad race in her career and although she hasn’t seen the turf her speed will still be dangerous. Rumble Doll gets a look if one of the top three are scratched.

Race 6      3-4-2

Sanctifica ran very well first out. Has a huge speed advantage and Clement is high percentage second time out, The Strip ships up from CD for McPeek who is doing very well at the meet. Good enough to compete with these. Midnight Citra gets first Lasix in her sixth start. Has been suffering from seconditis but can improve enough to get over the top today.

Race 7      1-8-3-6

Aussie Prayer came very close to breaking her maiden last out at this level and seems the one to beat. Not Now Joanie has shown speed at the MSW level and should carry it farther dropping to the MCL ranks. Kitty Kat is another dropping from the MSW level and adds blinkers today. Figures say she has a shot. My Kinda Gal goes second off the layoff for Pletcher. Have to respect the connections.

Race 8      2-1-3

Whale Rock has two excellent starts. Love the last when he was well out of it early and made a strong run to win. Little Popsie looks a step slower, but with Pletcher and Velasquez his chances improve substantially. Ride a Cat broke his maiden in strong fashion but flopped in his first with winners. If he runs back to his maiden he has good outs at a long price.

Race 9      5-1-6

A Lot looks very strong here. The addition of Lasix got him to his best figures, including a second in a Grade 2. The mile should be perfect. Noona’s Boy has been running with some pretty good stakes three year olds and while he doesn’t have a turf start he has plenty of turf breeding. Interesting at the odds. Gallery is another who doesn’t seem to run a bad race. Seems to like BEL and is well suited for the distance.

Race 10   3-8-2

Well Lawyered drops way down for this run. First start of the year he was competitive early but faded badly. Should improve loads today. Dominic’s Smile benefited from a DQ last out but fits at this level. Prophet’s Cat seems more likely in the verticals but has the figures to be a factor.

Race 1      5-1-6

Four Directions is making a big drop in price after showing nothing at the ALW NW1X level. Sole win came at BEL. May be better suited for the sprint and this level. Bert Stone looked improved with the move to this level last out and a slight upgrade from that performance puts him in the mix. No Herring caught a monster in Alysaro first out of 2015 and figures to improve second time out.

Race 2      3-6

Power Crazed comes off a win at CD last out. Was taken by Asmussen and stepped up to this level. Figures say he competes well with this group. S’Marvelous takes a step down for RuRod. Looks to be in good condition.

Race 3      8-4-7

Groovy A is the speed of the field and first time on the turf was a positive race. Nimble Foot looks like he may improve with the cutback in distance. May Flowers has been knocking at the door but gets his fifth different jockey.

Race 4      5-4-8

Bluegrass Chat is 9 of 13 on the turf and has some fast recent figures on the dirt. Political Farce ran his best race last out and should be one of the threats in the stretch. Golden Itiz drops for DJ . Has the figures to be a big factor.

Race 5      11-8-3-4

Winter Wish goes second Lasix and drops a level in search of a win. Looks well placed here. Born to Be Mild faltered in her last but prior to that looked good. Drops a level as well. Devil’s Silent totally flopped last time on the mud but has a great wet track rating. One more chance here. Queen Katherina showed big improvement when dropped to this level last out. One of the contenders here.

Race 6      7-4-2

Dauphine Russe has been competitive in restricted stakes and fits this field well. Mah Jong Madness has done well at BEL and the distance. May need some pace to run her best here. Devilish Love has switched to the Ben Perkins barn and looks to be in a good spot for a run here.

Race 7      6-3-1

Marriage Fever has been running strong with similar company and looks best today. Readthebyline has been competitive with better recently and has the top last race figure.  Barrister Jim is going for seven in a row. Hard to ignore that sort of record.

Race 8      9-8-1-5

Fade to Black eased last out but the race before that was caught late. That figure would win this race. Seeking Her Glory was running in graded events in 2014, came out in 2015 and impressively won a claiming event. That could indicate she’s healthy and competitive against this bunch. Charm City Girl has been expertly managed by Graham Motion. He’s placed her just right and she looks very competitive against this group. Keri Belle hasn’t run a bad one in two years and is one to consider in the verticals.

Race 9      4-7-11-2

Old Friend takes the blinkers off. Has the breeding and the figures to top this field. Mohican Chief has been off two years but showed plenty of potential when he last ran. Has been gelded and the workouts look just right. Heavenly Sun ran his best career race last out. Low profile connections ensure the horse will be overlooked. Space Oddity has run some good races in his short career and can’t be ignored in the verticals.

Race 1      11-9-5

River Knight came out running in 2015 and has a field-topping figure. Dusty Miles was beaten by River Knight last out but I like that he is improving after being off two years. The blinkers go on and Franco stays for the trip. O’Bear is another coming out of the River Knight race and putting on the shades. The trainer record at BEL is discouraging but he is making his third start of the year and may improve at big odds.

Race 2      2-4-1

Sacred Success ran poorly last out but in the penultimate race beat a similar field. I’m betting she reverts back to previous form. Henry’s Gal has two good tries at BEL and has a good turn of early speed. Verismilitude didn’t take to the turf last out but before that was competitive with better. Another with prospects.

Race 3      6-2-5

These NY state-bred maiden two year old races are always wide open affairs. Nolo Contendere is trained by Richard Violette and he is excellent with maiden two year olds. Wonderment sold for five times the stud fee and is trained by Ken McPeek who is ok with first timers. Like the workouts. Frosty Margarita is the RuRod entrant and he is another who is effective with babies.

Race 4      5-7-1

Old Harbor has been competitive in state-bred stakes and was a factor for the first half of the graded Eatontown. Fits well at this OC level. Carolina Shag just won her NW1X but faltered last out when in the Intercontinental. Better fit in this field. Vicki’s Dancer looked good when put back on the turf last out at this level. Strong potential.

Race 5      9-2-8

Sambrook faltered on the turf last out but looked good winning her maiden. Looks better suited for the sprint distance and the dirt. Letsgotovegas moves over to the Steve Klesaris stable. Easily beat a $20K field two back and should do better at this level. Lin Marie has been with better on the PA circuit. Has the figures to compete here.

Race 6      7-5-8

Mills is the fastest in the field off his best, but has been struggling to find the winners circle. This is as light a field as he’s faced in a while and perhaps that does the trick. Sharp Stick beat a NW1X field at Parx last out and definitely fits with these. Boss Man jumps up off a win but Servis seems to have the horse on the improve. Should be in top form.

Race 7      3-10-6

Compliance Officer needed his last race and should run an improved effort today. Analysis is also making his second start of 2015. Matched last year’s top first time out and with improvement is very dangerous in this field. Bullheaded Boy looks for two in a row for the deadly Pletcher/Velasquez combination. Looks to be in top shape and definitely competitive with this group.

Race 8      6-8-9

Warrior’s Crown has never run a bad race and has had very consistent figures. No reason not to expect a good effort. Havana was one of the stars as a two year old. Faltered badly in his three year old season but is back. Could be just looking for a conditioning race but given Pletcher is the conditioner, ignore him at your own risk. Classy Class was on the Triple Crown trail but did not have the right stuff. Likes the BEL surface and wasn’t embarrassed in the G2 Woody Stephens. Plenty of outs.

Race 9      3-9-1

Justenufflaughter will not go off near his 15-1 ML. Has the look of a Condition Sign horse, or a horse that shows dramatic improvement. His figures are not far off the best here. Hope’s Roar is coming off a short layoff for Bruce Brown. Making the big drop from MSW to MCL. Battle Axe is another dropping out of the MSW ranks. Making his first start of 2015 for Contessa and if he improves any from 2014 he’s a factor here.

Hope everyone had a great 4th of July. Lady Eli showed she is the best three year old turf filly in the country and second best isn’t that close. Private Zone took advantage of the absence of The Big Beast to easily master his field. And in a great finish my second choice Effinex topped my first choice Tonalist by the slimmest of margins in the Suburban, with third pick Coach inge finishing third. Effinex paid an outstanding $15.60 to win, keyed a $27 exacta and a $92 trifecta. Tons of profit to take away from that race. Bigger Picture came in for me in the 3rd at $15.60 to win. The 13-1 longshot Barrel of Love, my second choice, made a furious close to grab the place in the 5th race. Irish Jasper came in in the 6th at $11.80. On a tough day I had seven winners in 11 races. Not bad but I’m looking to do better today. Always a few prices in my picks.

Only the numbers today. I spent too much time handicapping and didn’t leave myself enough time to write some thoughts. All picks assume a fast track and we are on the turf, and are before scratches. Good luck to everyone and hope the selections help.

Race 1      1A-5-2

Race 2      8-9-3

Race 3      3-1-4

Race 4      1A-9-2-3

Race 5      7-3-1

Race 6      4-9-7

Race 7      8-2-6

Race 8      7-2-6

Race 9      5-3-2

Happy Independence Day to everyone. Great card at BEL with some first rate stakes. Picks are before scratches so some adjustments might be necessary.

Race 1      3-4-6

Another Pletcher/Velasquez two year old debut horse. No need to say more. Paynes Prairie finished second in the Tremont last out. He’ll likely be close to odds on here. Abbot had a nice three furlong work a week ago and could be ready to run.

Race 2      6-3-1

Elraay looked strong breaking his maiden and every reason to expect hi to run well with this group. Meshell has looked good in his two starts with winners and is competitive here. Predicate has a tendency to finish in the money instead of win but looks solid in the verticals.

Race 3      2-8-6

Rock Eagle looks to try a softer NW1X group instead of the stakes runners last out. Much more realistically placed. Bigger Picture did well against a few of these last out and has three wins to his credit. Chances at some odds. English Minister has been close his last three starts, although he is more likely in the money than the win slot.

Race 4      1-5-4

Wealth to Me was overmatched in the Brooklyn but fits this field well. Recent figures very consistent. Matrooh is two for three under Chad Brown’s tutelege and looks to be improving with each start. Samraat was running with top three year olds last year. Only question is whether the connections want him all out today or if they are looking for future runs.

Race 5     8-6-4

Depeche Chat is riding a two race win streak, the last at this level. Veteran loves to win and is as fast as any horse in the race. Barrel of Love is coming off a win against state-breds. Diane Balsamo has good percentages going sprint to route and first off the claim, and the 12-1 odds make him worth a look. Thomas Hill is another longshot with outs.

Race 6      6-1-5

Miss Ella won the Grade 2 Beaumont and ran well early in the Grade 1 Acorn. Young runner getting more experience and is probably better suited to the distance cutback. Promise Me Silver another that looks more like a sprinter. Prior to the Acorn was on an eight race win streak, including seven stakes. Irish Jasper just won a G3 at PIM. Steps up a bit today, but loves to win.

Race 7      4-1-7

Texas Red returns to the races in a G1 affair. He’s the ace closer in a race with plenty of pace. If he’s right he’ll be tough to keep out. Blofeld is the Pletcher/Velasquez entry and he has two G2 wins to his credit. Smart Transition doesn’t have the resume of some in here but I think his last was better than looked. Worth considering at the odds.

Race 8     2-8-7

Bolo has been far better on the turf than on the dirt and has a field dominating figure. Startup Nation ran well in the Penine Ridge and should improve off that effort. Worth a look at the mid-range odds. Postulation goes for top Euro trainer Dermont Weld and regular rider P J Smullen. Was recently gelded. I like that Weld made the trip with this horse.

Race 9      6-5-2

Tonalist was a surprise loser to Honor Code in the Metropolitan, but should be in better shape in the Suburban. Hard to pick against. Effinex ran a clunker in the Brooklyn, but was a winner in the G3 Excelsior. Maybe a little ambitiously placed, but his figures say he can run with this bunch. Coach Inge was a winner in the Brooklyn by essentially going wire to wire. Not much speed signed on so may be in the cat bird seat in the stretch.

Race 10   2-6-10-7

Lady Eli is the best three year old filly turf horse running and no reason to pick against her here. Spanish Queen is coming out of the American Oaks at SA and on figures could be the one to make it difficult on Lady Eli. Outstanding invades from Ireland and looks like the talent of the Euro invaders. Main concern is the distance. Consumer Credit is listed at 12-1 on the ML after finishing a length and a half behind 7/2 Spanish Queen. Odds say must consider.

Race 11   3-2-4-6

The Belmont Sprint closes out the July 4  card. Private Zone is more suited for the seven furlong distance. He’s got the speed and the figures and has done well on the BEL dirt. The Big Beast is a legitimate graded sprinter and will get a better trip than he got in the Carter. Greem Gratto is completely mis-evaluated at 15-1 ML. He’s speedy and likes the distance. Can’t discount. Stallwalkin’ Dude likes BEL and the distance and is coming off a good runs in his last three stakes.

Race 1      3-4-6-5

Noble Doss just missed at this distance in his first start of 2015.  Stays at the same price level. On his best day he looks like the field topper. Flash Paws won his last out at this distance. It was his best race in a while but he has strung them together in the past. Moneyinyour Pocket is dropping significantly in price from 2014. DJ hasn’t improved the horse, but if he runs some of the races we saw last year he’s a major contender. Groomedforvictory ran a good one last out. Last two starts have shown major improvement.

Race 2      1-7-3

Royal Ascot Zip was taken for $35K by Linda Rice first out. She put him right back in a MSW where he couldn’t hold his speed but drops him down to $20K today. Has plenty of speed and the only question is how he’ll take to the dirt. Heavy Hitter looked good at this level last out. I’ll swing for the fences with Warrior Jays in the third spot. He’s obviously not a turf horse, nor a high level claimer. Adds blinkers and moves to the dirt. I’m not saying he is a great thing, but I’ll use him in the verticals.

Race 3      3-2-7

Love to Run just won at this level two weeks ago, and actually has an intervening race. Chatterpaul has not had great success running them back so quickly, but the horse is in condition and is competitive in terms of figures. Star of New York has been consistent in 2015 and figures to be pushing at the end. BEL dirt win percentage is abyssmal though so not going overboard in the win slot. Cosmic Coincidence has been close in his last two at this level. Should be the one to catch.

Race 4      2-3-6

Killarney Rose has the fastest figures in the field and is dropping from MSW to this claiming affair. Will be hard to beat. Summer Chant is another dropping in the MCL ranks. Pletcher is fantastic moving horses to MCL and I’ll take it on faith this one will compete today. Durant missed the break last out but stayed in the race and closed well. Breeding doesn’t scream turf, but the first effort wasn’t bad.

Race 5      6-9-4

Swear by It moved over to the Chad Brown barn over the winter. Comes out looking for win number two. Well suited for the distance and Brown is excellent off the layoff. Resolutely came out well first time in 2015. Additional development over the winter should make her tough in this field. Aesthetique did not look good in her 2015 efforts at GP but should be better adapted to BEL.

Race 6      9-7-8

Bellamy Way was over his head in a stakes last out, but prior to that ran reasonably well against the very talented Ostrolenka. Figures fastest with the scratch of the 1. Devilish Grin has four seconds in five starts. Clearly has the talent, has to show he has the heart. Interior Secretary ran better than looked in his first out. Has been gelded since last winter and Weaver is ok with horses off the layoff.

Race 7      5-3-6

Spring to the Sky faltered in the Jaipur but before that was running consistently with better than this. Gets the nod against a softer bunch. Summation Time ships over from PID for Clement. One for one over the BEL turf and has the figures to compete. Shore Runner is four for four in the money over the BEL turf. Moved to the barn of Joe Sharp last out and he is quietly having a good meet.

Race 8      8-6-4

Marbre Rose has run two good races over the BEL turf. She encountered some traffic issues in the Intercontinental and could turn the tables on Zindaya today. Zindaya was the winner of the Intercontinental and that makes her 3 for 3 on the BEL turf. Rarely runs a bad one. Photo Call has been running in graded company lately and came close in the Beaugay. Passed an easier spot at Parx to run in this one.

Race 9      9-5-12

Women Win has been close to the winner in her last two races. With the scratches in today’s race, she many stand out. Bold Print has been on the turf the last two outs and has figures that make her competitive here. Sing for Beauty has shown plenty of early speed and with the scratches could inherit an easy lead, making her dangerous.

Race 1      5-4-2

El Genio was off close to two years, returned on the BEL dirt showing some speed while tiring in the last half of the race. The second race was a MCL on the turf and he showed much better staying power. Third off the long layoff should produce his best. Jai Alai drops from MSW to this claiming affair. Should appreciate the distance cutback. Southpaw goes first time for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is good with first timers, although he hasn’t impressed that much at BEL. Still, the workout pattern is positive and given the weak field you can’t discount his chances.

Race 2      9-4-10

Thundering Gale won last out and drops in price for Chad Brown. Every reason to expect a repeat. Desert Bliss has looked good on the BEL turf lately and has competitive figures. Bargaining Table looks as good as any to round out the verticals.

Race 3       6-5-1

Moonlit Bay ran two consecutive seconds in cheaper PA bred claimers but the figures say competitive. Worth a look at the odds. Danette has been looking to break through for a while now. Last race was as good as she’s run and perhaps that signals she is finally ready. Regia Marina puts the blinkers on and looks to repeat her last BEL performance.

Race 4      2-1-3

Tonasah goes for powerful Pletcher/Velasquez combination. Have to respect those two first time. Modiste has some speedy workouts. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Contessa. Fabulous Devotion is another with an eye-catching workout pattern. Clement is effective with debut runners and two year olds.

Race 5      2-4-6

Asset Inflation is one for one at the distance and 3 for 5 over the BEL turf. Has been a consistent performer for a while now and will be trying to carry his speed all the way. Dowse’s Beach is making his second start of 2015 and should improve in this start. Very competitive at this level. Hear the Footsteps is more competitive on the turf. Like BEL and the distance. Has run well off the layoff before.

Race 6      9-6-4

Global Stroke goes for the red hot Todd Pletcher. Was well thought of in 2014 with starts in two graded stakes. Won an OC $25K first out in 2015 and just missed at this level last out at BEL. Has been much improved since moved to the turf. Smooth Daddy was graded stakes placed in 2014 but is still looking for the 2015 breakthrough. Any return to last year’s form make him very dangerous. Heyaarat finished just behind Global Strike last out; fits the race and has the right figures.

Race 7      1-4-10

Breach of Duty looked good winning a $25K NW2. She’s two for two over the BEL surface. Gethot Stayhot was a winner at this level ten weeks ago, tried a state-bred stakes and is back where she has her best shot. Toscano has quietly been having a good meet. She’s Marvy is the best of the front runners. Comes off a claim by Klesaris who is 21% first time off the claim.

Race 8      3-7-2

Morandi the French horse has been off for two years, and comes back under the care of Chad Brown. Silver Lime has also been off since 2013. Both horses showed some talent, but there is no way to tell if the layoff has left them needing a race. I’m going to make them plays against and instead go with Biz the Nurse. He won at first asking in the U.S. but then was placed over his head in two graded stakes. The return to the OC ranks should allow him to show better. Iron Power has shown some good front running ability and if Jose Ortiz can nurse it along he’s got prospects. Reflecting fits the class and has the figures to compete, but lately has been having trouble cracking the win code. Perhaps the drop is the answer.

Race 9      9-1-4

Strong Impact has an excellent win percentage His last win came in a restricted stakes and since that time he’s been knocking without getting through. Return to the Bruce Brown stable is in his favor. Put It Forward should appreciate the distance cutback. Partly Mocha has shown some favor for the BEL turf and the distance and has competitive numbers.

Given the sloppy track and the races off the turf, I’m passing on today’s BEL card. Good luck to all who play.