Today doesn’t look like the money making day yesterday was. But here goes with today’s selections.

Race 1      6-4-8

Too Discreet has a good workout pattern and is well bred for the turf and the distance. Sax Change is well bred for the distance, and Contessa/Hernandez are developing a successful partnership. Brooklyn Speights goes for Wesley Ward who is quite capable with first time two year olds.

Race 2      6-3-8

Awesome Dame jumps up in distance but should have no problem with the added furlong. Rachel’s Valentine goes for Pletcher/Velasquez and that is always worth considering. Tale for Ruby has been working well at SAR and figures well at the distance.

Race 3      1-3-2

Jewel of a Cat has a win and second at SAR and has been very successful at the distance. Free as a Bird is another that has run well at SAR and the distance. Fits in this field very well. Old Harbor has been racing longer but has the class and tactical speed to make a run of it in the stretch.

Race 4      1-5-6

Lucknow was up against it in her most recent stakes try and is better spotted today. Sumba Sunset has looked competitive in her races at this level and should be in a good position turning for home. Hope Cross raced well first out in 2015 for Chad Brown. He’s excellent coming off a layoff.

Race 5      1-5-4

Mack Miller trained the first horse I ever bet and won on. He’s going third off a layoff and should fit with this group. Be a Hero is dropping into this group and looks well placed to pick up a win. Flag On the Play has good tactical speed and just missed last out.

Race 6      9-7-1

Ian Smith is the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant and has been working well. War Order has been looking good at Fair Hill for Motion and he is a respectable 23% using Cintron. Spicy Blonde is very well bred for the turf and the distance and Ward/Hernandez has been a strong combo.

Race 7      5-3-9 (13)

River of Magic puts blinkers on for start two and cuts back a furlong. HEavenly Sun has one nice start at the distance. Maybe a bit of a stretch given the connections, but worth a small look. Apollo Eleven has been close at this level and has figures that say competitive. Grand Sky is a choice if he scratches in.

Race 8     6-8-11-10

So Noted broke his maiden at the distance in a good time and has a great work since that start. Hunt’s Road almost won in his first start with winners and looks strong in this spot. Little Poopsie has plenty of early foot and will be the one to catch. Giantinthemoonlite was recently gelded. Has plenty of speed but has been stuck here for a while.

Race 9      8-4-11

Marriage Fever drops out of OC for DJ. Looks to be the fastest horse in the race. Tango On makes a substantial drop in price and has been competitive with better recently. Congenial just missed in a better field. Should be up front for this one.

Race 10   4-5-3

Untapable and Stopchargingmaria finall meet each other. SCM has looked slightly better this year and has the advantage of races over the SAR dirt. Still, Untapable is the reigning queen and stays my choice. House Rules looks slightly less talented than the top two but is still a good horse.

Race 11   7-2-3

Sinatra looks for two in a row at this level. If he runs that race he’ll be hard to keep out. Holy Invader drops in price in search of two in a row. He’s 3 of 4 at the distance. Neoclassic  won at this distance and a higher level and at 12-1 is worth a look.

Yesterday was a total bust. Lots of scratches and races off the turf. By the end of the day the sun came out and it is supposed to be sunny today. Hopefully the turf will dry out enough for the races to stay on.  All turf race selections are for races that stay on the turf .

Race 1      3-1-6-8

This race is a hodgepodge of dirt and turf runners. Strong Impact should get a good early spot and has had a lot of early success at SAR and at the distance. Most of the speed is with the MTO’s so there may not be a torrid pace. That gives Partly Mocha a better shot from the one. He’s another that has had success at SAR and the distance and is dropping to his lowest level in a while. Slamarama has had some trouble catching the winner’s share but he has the figures to be competitive. Political Farce has the top early speed of the non-MTO’s and has to be respected even at 12-1 ML.

Race 2      9-5-3-6

Killarney Rose goes from the outside on the inner and that may put her up against it, but I like her figures and she looked good first time dropping into the MCL ranks. She would be the tepid choice. Hundred Year Storm only has two starts and drops from MSW to MCL. Brown is almost 50% moving from MSW to MCL. Figures aren’t dominant but the stats say she will be tough in this spot. Summer Chant looked good at this trip last out. Pletcher is 33% with MCL. Break Away finally drops into the MCL ranks. She looks well meant for the mile trip and picks up top jock Castellano.

Race 3      7-2-6

20-1 ML shot Bridgetta is 50% on the SAR dirt. She’s been fairly consistent and she seems to be in good condition. Lady Gracenote is making a slight drop in price. Her SAR numbers are very competitive with this group. Champage Ruby was running with state-bred stakes horses last year and has been struggling this year, but her last race was encouraging and she’s worth a look at longer odds.

Race 4      2-3-5

Stanford is the remaining Pletcher entrant after the scratch and hasn’t finished worse than second in his stakes races. Tekton just missed in the Pegasus at MTH and is another looking at West Virginia. Certainly has chances if the top one falters. Smart Transition ran an uninspired race in the Dwyer but still has the talent to give these some competition.

Race 5      1/1A-8-3

The entry of Goodrevy and Tradesman looks strong for Albertrani. Tradesman actually has a maiden win but was DQ’d. Since then he ran third in a stakes and threw in a clunker in his last MSW. Still, at his best he’s as good as anything in this field. Indian Trail goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He improved in his second start and keeping that up puts him right in the mix. Gangster should appreciate the entended distance. When do you get 10-1 on Pletcher.

Race 6      4-5-9

O’Prado Ole moved to the Clement barn and he’s been prepped well for this start. Graded turf runner should fit well at this level. Global Strike has not run a bad one in 2015 since being moved to the turf. Have to respect his tactical speed. Artic North didn’t look as good when moved to the two mile distance but he should be comfortable at this distance.

Race 7      1-6-3

Street Jersey puts the blinkers on and gets first Lasix for his 2015 debut. The works look promising and Tagg is 20% with long layoff horses. Choir Director has been working well at SAR and he should be a factor in the stretch. Chomsky had been off close to two years and made a nice return a month ago. He has a nice workout since that race and it looks like he’s overcome whatever problems kept him on the shelf. At 12-1 he’s worth a look.

Race 8      5-8-9

Brickyard Kitten has had some success at SAR and Johnny V stays for the trip. He’s run some good figures this year and while Ben Perkins doesn’t start a lot of horses here, but he’s still a top trainer. Stormy Rocit has a win at SAR and fits well at this level. Figures say he is competitive. Pure Sensation ran primarily in stakes races last year. He’s been gelded and takes the blinkers off today. He’s got a win at SAR and could wind up as the controlling speed.

Race 9      5-7-6

Catholic Cowboy has the best last race figure and although he’s been struggling to find the winner’s circle, his last race was his best this year. Big Looie just missed in his first start in the Jacobson barn and has been consistent in his figures. Touchofstarqualiy won at this level and distance  last out. His races are spaced so you have to wonder just how sound he is, but he has three works leading up to this and that is encouraging.

Race 10   2-4-1

Sudestada switched to the turf, showed plenty of early foot from the outside post and didn’t fold that badly. I love this move and think he is a good play even if he goes off at less than his 15-1 ML. Hardcore just missed at a shorter turf sprint last out and should be part of the early scrum. The experience should help him to stay longer. Ward/Hernandez is at 27% success. Diva Express cuts way back in distance and he should like the sprint.

Another competitive day. I haven’t yet found a horse to load up on, but eventually the form will settle and we’ll find some big winners. Meanwhile, here’s today’s picks.

Race 2      1-4-6

Harlans Belle has been dropping steadily in 2015. She has plenty of tactical speed and Cox has been good with this sort of dropper. The reluctant choice in a field that is pretty untalented overall. Backwater just broke her maiden and drops to a level where she has a chance to double up. Pushme Pullyou broke her maiden on the dirt, ran a couple of clunkers on the turf and is back on the dirt today. At 12-1 she’s a good angle play.

Race 3      3-1-7

These two year old state-bred races are usually wide open affairs. Fish Trappe Road has a good start at CD and is probably dropping in class. Calhoun is a respectable 23% with second time maidens and about the same with two year olds. Giggy Smooth has a nice workout pattern for Chris Englehart. The trainer/jock combo has been effective in the last two years. I had to choose between the two Pletcher entrants and decided to go with the longer odds. They both look good but Sudden Surprise gets number one jock with Johnny V.

Race 4      4-1-7

Palace is a successful Grade 1 winner and drops into a state-bred stakes. If he is right he overwhelms this field. Weekend Hideaway jumped his shadow last out but prior to that was competitive in restricted stakes. Castellano was the winning jock last time he won. Moonlight Song has won sprinting at SAR and should be the first to the front.

Race 5      5-9-10

Kentucky Road goes for Pletcher/Castellano. She’s very well bred for the turf sprint and she has some nice workouts at SAR. I’m a little hesitant to go to the outside in a short turf sprint, but I liked the connections and the workout patterns. Country Muse has a pattern I especially like – a fast 3 furlong work followed by a comfortable series of four furlong works. Mike Maker is good with first timers and two year olds. Catch a Glimpse has been working very well for top trainer Mark Casse and is another well bred for the turf sprint.

Race 6      1-5-8

Right On Kitten has obviously been over her head in stakes races. She’s at home on the turf and should get good position coming out of the one post. Wealth Creation goes for the talented Chad Brown barn and gets a new rider in Irad Ortiz. She only has four races so there is much room for improvement and she fits this level. Although Rock Me Again is coming from outside, she has enough speed to establish position early. She’s another who fits well in this group.

Race 7      8-11-7

Justlookatmenow has been racing in shorter sprints and should be able to clear the field if she chooses. She was over her head in the ALW/Stakes races but should have no trouble being competitive with this field. On A Star has one excellent race at this distance and may benefit from the cutback.

Race 8      5-2-8

Il Mulino goes for the white-hot Mott/Lezcano combination. He should be in the early battle and has shown decent heart when challenged. Regia Marina has a solid closing kick and should relish the distance. Say Cin Cin looked good in her last and is another that should relish the distance. Bond looks like he has gotten the horse acclimated to SAR and should have her ready to roll.

Race 9      7-3-10

Lady of Gold has been having trouble winning but does like the SAR surface. She’s coming out of a graded event and should be strong at the distance. Regardez has been so-so in her two North American starts, but was graded stakes placed in England. Chad Brown is usually reliable about placing his horses correctly and I’m looking for improvement today. Chocolatier should be contesting the early pace and she should be able to get good position even coming out of the ten. At 10-1 she looks interesting.

Race 10   3-6-9

Shotgun Love looked close to breaking through at the MSW level. She failed on the turf, and goes back to the dirt dropping down to a lower MCL level. Hard to pick against her. Devil’s Silent just finished second at this level. Cuts back half a furlong and should enjoy the shorter trip. She’s All Even has come close in her last two but will have to show more heart to get the win. Still, she’s worth looking at in the exotics.

I’ll be doing a summary of the first four days of the meet this week. Lots of prices and the track seemed to change from Friday to Monday.  Meanwhile, today’s card has a lot of puzzling races. Some concern about the heat and humidity, so I made selections to account for potential scratches. I’m passing the hurdle race, but if I had to bet I’m looking at Elizabeth Voss, Jack Fisher and James Day.

Race 2      6-3-2

Bellamy Brew had been off close to two years and was taken in his first start of 2015 by DJ. I like that he laid him off for close to two months – tells me he wanted to get the horse in the right shape before running him. He has a lot of back class. Of course, all the time off still has to be cause for some caution. Bet the Power is in good condition and goes first time for Chris Englehart. He’s been a reliable runner for a while. American Progress has competitive figures and looks to be in his best form.

Race 3      1-5-8

Ackerman Road ran a lifetime best when moved to the turf. Castellano is too good to be kept out of the top spot for long. Tax Deduction is another that improved when moved to the turf. A little more improvement puts him right there. Private Show has no turf breeding, but is a strong sprinter and is dropping from MSW. Worth a look.

Race 4      4-3

Judy the Beauty and La Verdad look head and shoulders above the field. Judy gets the nod off her better SAR record.

Race 5      3-9-7-11

Tizallheart is 12-1 on the ML. He actually has a good race on the SAR turf and fits the class and conditions. Gotachancetodance only has three starts and has looked better each race. Sylvia T switches to RuRod’s barn and perhaps that will help her to find the winner’s circle. Solid in the horizontals. Winner’s Legacy looked good first time out in 2015 and has the currently hot Jose Lezcano in the saddle.

Race 6      1-4-7-10

Successful Runner finished last season with a good race at SAR. Low profile connections should ensure decent odds. Well Lawyered ran well on the turf last out and returns to the dirt where he had some impressive races out West. Has a race on the SAR dirt and looks good on the slight drop in price. Wynhurst was picked up by DJ from the Bob Baffet barn. He looked pretty good out West and if he is in shape he’s dangerous. Deficit Hawk ran well on the dirt at AQU, ran one on the turf and switches back to the dirt today. At 12-1 he shouldn’t be ignored.

Race 7      1-8-10-4

Style Drift ran well first time on the turf for Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz stays for the trip. Fourstar Crook is the other Brown runner and should be the one coming late. This should be a pretty good 1-2 punch. First Charmer is 12-1 ML for the incredibly hot Bill Mott. Ignore his horses at your own peril. Donatienne just missed breaking her maiden at SAR last year. Graham Motion is pretty good with horses coming off the layoff.

Race 8      9-1-4-6

Oklahoma Den ships up from GP. He’s been running with much better and should appreciate the move to state-breds. Jax Heritage hasn’t run a bad one in 2015 and has competitive figures. Battle of Evermore has been running with top flight state-breds and should be a big factor in this group. Police Camp is better than his 15-1 ML would indicate. Worth a look.

Race 9      1-10-11-6

Although I think the two outside horses might be a little better, given this one is on the inner turf I’m going to look inside for winner. Slim Shadey has been with a lot of stakes runners in the last two years and has good figures. All Included goes for the strong Pletcher/Velasquez combination. He was only a length out of the Grade 3 Poker and looks to be in top form. Sky Flight has looked good in both his 201 starts and goes relatively fresh for top trainer Mark Casse. Front is a longshot with some potential to make the exotics. Jerkens did get hot at SAR last year and has been training well in 2015.

Race 10   1-4-2-6

Smokem’s Charm goes first time for Abby Adsit who has been pretty good with claims. Has a third at SAR and makes a good drop in price. Spa City Fever has the name for the track. He’s making a big drop in price and has the best last race figure by far. Native Gold goes for Danny Gargan who is having a great 2015. Breezed well over the SAR surface. Real Estate Rich has a second at SAR and has been competitive in 2015.

There is no such thing as a bad day at the Spa. There are tough days, but win or lose Saratoga is a great place to be. Yesterday if you had focused on anything above 10-1 you might have had a memorable day. Form is still settling, and longshots are coming in left and right.

Race 1      6-2-1

Carrumba will be the obvious choice after making a furious close to just miss in his first. Have to use in the horizontals, but not a lot of value. Picture Day gets first Lasix and that may be enough to get her to the wire. Theophilia is another getting first Lasix for Mott and he is pretty good with that move.

Race 2      8-2-7-10

Ack Naughty ran well in a restricted stake with winners. Ortiz stays for the trip. Skinner Box won up here last year and just missed in his last BEL race.  Amazing Anne has been struggling to get to the front at the wire but has some good figures and a win at SAR. Courageisamajority just broke her maiden with a new top. Other than the outside post, she looks very capable of going with winners.

Race 3      4-6-8

Bessie’s Boy has plenty of early foot and figures well in this group. Copernicus just missed on the slop and looks to be in good form for Toscano. Scattered Dreams drops down to his lowest level for this one. Some trouble winning, but solid in the verticals.

Race 4      1-7-3

Women Win has three seconds in a row. No doubt about the talent but some concern about the heart. First Service got a good tightener in his first out, moves to his preferred surface today. Miss Anna Marie goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez; I like the workout pattern.

Race 5      7-3-6

Persnickity just won at this level and comes back for two in a row. Spectacular Me just missed last out and figures heavily at the distance. Magsamelia picks up Castellano for the trip. Has plenty of speed and will be a factor at the front.

Race 6      1-6-10

Love the Kitten runs at her fourth track in her young career. Wesley Ward is a good one with turf babies. Amazing Charisma goes for McPeek. Has some nice works for the debut. Bottle dance has to overcome the outside but does have a race and RuRod is good second time out.

Race 7      4-5-1-11

Summer Breezing was just taken by Jermiah Englehart and he is 25% with first time claim runners. Goes from straight claimers to state-breds. Saratoga Dreamer has good tactical speed and broke his maiden on this track. Three for Me has been on a good streak and also is moving over to state-breds. Saltine Warrior gets the services of Johnny V and may be better suited at the sprint distance.

Race 8      11-3-8

Lunar Rover goes from the far outside but looks to have enough tactical speed to get a good spot going into the turn.. 1 for 1 at SAR. Unbridled Juan hasn’t run a bad one in his short career. Should be in a good spot in this one lap affair on the dirt. Tacticus comes from Europe and the synthetic track circuit. Motion has a high percentage with new Euro runners.

Race 9      8-10-4-5

Tweet Kitten looks to have a perfect style for this race and gets Castellano as a rider. Andalusite is taking a while to break his maiden but could be a factor in the verticals. Long Legacy really woke up when moved to the turf. Jonathan Sheppard will win sometime this meet, why not get it out of the way today? Wings of a Prayer seemed to like the longer distance and figures to be in the picture today.

Race 10   7-3-5-8

The CCA Oaks is a competitive affar, with no horse like Untappable or Stopchargingmaria in the running. Wonder Gal is multiple graded stakes placed and should have to close by many to have a chance. Curalina was a winner last out in the Acorn and Pletcher/Velasquez is deadly in dirt stakes. Include Betty is a deep closer who has the top last race figure. Very much primed for the upset with California recent super apprentice Drayden Van Dyke.I’m a Chatterbox has run some good graded races’ Larry Jones has to be respected here.

Race 11   10-4-8

The last is a bit of a mess so don’t discount any price horse. Mr Maybe looks pretty solid and has recently been gelded. Will have to overcome the outside post. Enjoy the Show has a good last race figure and a win at the distance. Stevie’s Moonshot is the Pletcher entrant. He’s better on the turf and gets back there today.

Interesting opening day. More down than up, but I hit two races really well and that kept my head above water. Things don’t get any easier today.

Race 1      6-5-7

Metal Magic has a start for Eddie Kenneally and duplication of the effort puts him on top. Boalt Hall goes for Pletcher/Velasquez and they are always dangerous with two year old first timers. Moon King is a Malibu Moon colt and they are often precocious.

Race 2      4-7-3

English Minister has been competitive at this level in 2015, but not yet cracking the winner’s circle is a little concern, Still, his figures say he is the one to beat. Speeding Comet just missed after the claim by Toscano. Looks very viable in this spot. Majestico goes for the Coach and while he isn’t the trainer he used to be he looks like he spotted this one shrewdly.

Race 3      6-8-10

Life imitates art goes for Chad Brown who is good with first timers, better with first timers on the turf. Little Schmo ran well in the slop and should appreciate the added distance. Dissident has been working well at SAR for Pletcher and top turf rider Castellano gets the call.

Race 4      1-7-3

Stay tuned shipped in from KEE last out and ran well against these types. Puts the shades on today. Danzig Storm was claimed two back by Joan Scott who almost tot him to win last time. A contender at longer odds. Ogermeister flopped last out but has strong potential in the verticals.

Race 5      6-8-9

Saratoga Mischief is the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant. He has looked good in the mornings at SAR. Silvertown is another horse that has already started for Kennealy. He was bumped at the start and wide and with a clean trip he has big outs. 10-1 is attractive. Crosstown Route goes for Violette and he is almost 40% with first timers.

Race 6      8-9-1

Dowse’s Beach was a winner here last year and comes to SAR looking a lot like he did before that victory. Asset Inflation was claimed last out by Chris Englehart and he is pretty good first off the claim. Broke his maiden on the SAR turf. Glowing Ember gets the rail for this run and has the speed to make it a big advantage.

Race 7      5-1-10

Regent’s House comes off the year layoff for McLaughlin. She’s been best at today’s distance and the works look like she is in condition. If she finished developing she’s got a big chance. Sister Margaret switches to the Gary Gullo barn. He hasn’t run a poor race in his career and won at first asking last year. Clothes Fall Off is another that hasn’t run a bad race lifetime, has good workouts and previously won fresh.

Race 8      11-3-7-5

Barrel of Love has been running well. Doesn’t have a high win percentage, but is hard trying. Taghleeb has never run a really poor race and looks to be very well handled by McLaughlin. Taghleeb hasn’t run a bad one, fits the conditions and looks to have been well handled by McLaughlin. Plainview is all the speed and will be the one to catch. Ocala Jim has run two good races at SAR, is in shape and fits the conditions.

Race 9      8-7-6

Cocked and Loaded was the winner of the Tremont. This one is his to lose. Paynes Prairie came out of the Tremont to break his maiden and looks to be getting stronger. Asmussen has been shrewd with his two year olds lately. He’s Comin in Hot already has a win at the distance and has overcome some tough competition to win.

Race 10   2-5-6

Stephanie’s Kitten is still the best horse in the race and should have some pace to run at today. Waltzing Matilda won at first asking in the States and with the addition of Lasix ran a new top. Definitely interesting at the odds. My Miss Sophia is one of the speed horses. She’s been well handled by Mott and should be a factor here.

Race 11   2-7-10

This is Saratoga so we’ll go for a longshot in the nightcap. Sailmate likes the disance and although he hasn’t won at the Spa, he’s 3 of 5 in the money. Figures say he competes well with this group. Comandante goes for Pletcher/Castellano and while he hasn’t crossed the wire first at SAR he has two seconds in four starts. He fits well with this group. Classic Salsa is the likely front runner for DJ. He loves to win races and the figues say he has a big shot.

Opening Day at the Spa is finally here. The weather is a little dicey – the forecast calls for a 30-40% chance of rain in Saratoga, with some potentially drenching showers. Of course, the rain could also miss the track, but if it doesn’t it could affect the later turf races. The card looks very encouraging. Lots of full fields and competitive races.

Race 1      4-3-8

Let’s go for a longshot right away in the first race and tab Moneyinyour Pocket in the win slot. Moneyinyour Pocket was competitive with much better in late 2014 and was taken by the usually shrewd David Jacobson for $40K in April of this year. He dropped the horse to $12,500 and finally got an impressive win last out. He’s got a second and a third at the distance. The jump to state-bred OC$40 is not quite as big a leap as it may appear. Worth considering. Beyond Empire has a win over the SAR surface at this distance. His two runs in Dubai were nothing special, but the return at BEL at this level showed some of the talent he’d shown previously stateside.  Fox Rules is another longshot that intrigues me. He’s a versatile horse who can win turf or dirt, short and long, but seems most effective in routes on the dirt. His numbers suggest he is as good as anything off his best.

Race 2      1-3-4

I’d like Lemon Liqueur a lot more if she wasn’t breaking from the rail post. Still, I searched high and low in this field and it was hard to come up with anything that looked better than her. She has an impressive set of steady works and Violette is excellent with first time runners. If she doesn’t get buried out of the gate she certainly has a big chance. Night Madam is another with good morning works. She’s sired by a BC sprint winner and while Contessa is not in Violette’s league with newcomers, he is a competent trainer. Lady’s First  is shipped up from Kentucky by Dallas Stewart. She sold for less than the stud fee, not a great sign, but the works show some ability. If I know anything about state-bred two year old races, it is that anything can happen so go with caution.

Race 3      4-7-1-10

The nod in the first turf race of the year goes to Little Mary Ellen. She appears to have settled at this level in search of a win. Horses able to establish position early have a big advantage in races on the inner turf, and she should settle into a good striking spot. You can toss out her last on the good dirt, and her best effort should top this field. Khaleesi Cat drops from MSW to the claiming ranks for this start. The horse has had bad luck in both her starts. In the first she clipped heels and lost the jockey. In the second she was squeezed back at the start and was never able to get into the race. She puts the blinkers on today and gets first Lasix. Mott trainees usually take a few races to get going, so no surpise if she shows up today. Dacoma is another dropping out of MSW. She’s also moving up to a route, and that should allow her to show more speed from the rail. There are questions about why Ward would give up on the horse after only two starts – she’s running at a $120K discount from her purchase price – but if she doesn’t get snagged it might turn out to be a shrewd move. Ambiguous but with possibilities. Flying K C has been sprinting for RuRod. Usually the outside posts are death on the inner, but she may have enough speed to establish position.

Race 4      7-6-1

One of the things I love about Saratoga is naming graded stakes after some of the smaller places in the area. The Amsterdam, the Ballston Spa, and in this case the 97th running of the Schuylerville. This is a talented field, and as is usually the case, two year olds can improve dramatically in their early starts. Still, until Todd Pletcher shows signs of weakness, his horses get the most consideration in the two year old stakes. In this race Positively Royal looks very strong. She broke her maiden powerfully in a fast time at BEL. In that race she was actually a little green, and if she learned her lessons, she should be more professional in this race. The bullet at SAR a week ago says she is ready to enter the ranks of graded stakes winner. Moment is Right has shown high early speed and has been working like a champion at KEE. Every reason to expect she’ll be winging and will have to be caught. Decked Out has more of a pressing/closing running style and should appreciate the increase in distance. Hopefully the rail doesn’t keep her from finding a good spot from which to make a late run.

Race 5      3-8-11

Nile Princess broke her maiden at a price at BEL in May, jumped way up to a $50K starter allowance where she raced decently, and comes down to a NW3 claiming event. She’s eligible for NW2 and that is of concern, but she’s not up against a strong bunch. At 12-1 ML I’m interested. Jennys Creek has shown a tendency to finish in the money more than win, but she did beat a NW2L field a month and a half ago and didn’t show badly against a state-bred NW1X field. She fits the race pretty well. Queenofzeenile only missed at this level last out by half a length and would be given more consideration if she wasn’t coming from the outside. If she gets the right position she could be a winner.

Race 6      6-4-5

Anna House was a $600K yearling purchase, trained by Pletcher and working well. Johnny V takes the mount and that combo is exceptional with these sorts. Silky Girl has been working up a storm for Violette and at 8-1 is worth considering. Welcoming goes for Clement and Leparoux and that combination is a solid 21%. She’s been working at SAR and has looked good doing it.

Race 7      4-5-3-12

Lahinch Classics is one of two Chad Brown trained entrants here. Interestingly Irad Ortiz and Javier Castellano are both 28% riding for Brown, so I’m looking at betting the value. Lahinch Classics is 10-1 on the ML and gets the “secondary” rider in Ortiz. She missed by the slimmest of margins in a G2 at theCurragh and if she replicates that run she’s as good as anythig in here. It’s a bit of a concern that she flopped as the heavy favorite in a $25K OC last out, but she’ll have no issue with the distance and you have to trust CB. Bishop’s Pond, the other Brown runner just broke her maiden after four previous tries. She’ll be mid-pack and should be coming at the end. Chrysolite stretches out to 1 3/16. She’s been competitive with this level and if she adapts to the longer distance she can be a factor. Trophee just broke her maiden for Clement after knocking on the door in all her U.S. races. She’s an obviously talented runner, but is stuck on the far outside. She’ll have to overcome that to beat this field.

Race 8      3-6-4

Doubledown Again has been competitive in every race and has very consistent figures. Figures to be on top of his game in this one. Doc Almon has looked excellent since DJ took over conditioning. Is as good as any horse in the field. Scatter Joy is the best speed in the race and may take this field the whole way. Great winning percentage at the distance.

Race 9      9-10-3

Mrs MacDougal comes in from SA for Chad Brown. She looked good in the American Oaks but couldn’t contend with Feathered and Spanish Queen. I think the cutback in distance will be in her favor. Ortiz was the rider in her only win.  Feathered almost wired the field in the American Oaks and prior to that did make it gate to wire in the Edgewood. May seek the front this time. Jellicle Ball goes first time for Motion. She was graded stakes placed in Europe. No listed works, so we’ll see if she goes.

Race 10   6-4-2

Culprit goes third off the long layoff and drops to the SAR price basement. Have to use him, but not delirious about him. Big Blue Talent is another steep dropper going third off the layoff. One of the contenders in a weak field. Bacigliano almost wired a field at this level last time. With that race under his belt might just go all the way. Joe Sharp is usually good with his recent claims.

End of a very successful BEL meeting for me. I hope those of you who followed my selections had a good meeting as well. I’m looking forward to making some money at Saratoga.

Race 1      4-3-6

Hillaryinthehouse ran well first time out at six furlongs but couldn’t handle the added furlong last time. She sold for 20 times the stud fee and looks fastest on paper. Wake Up Smiling is one of the horses coming out of the June 24th race where she finished a good second. Looks well primed for a top effort today. Outtacyresshills takes the blinkers off today. Has been showing speed routing. Should have more of a closing effort at the sprint distance, but his figures give reason for optimism.

Race 2      3-1-2

Golden Gem should be pressing early. Looked good on the BEL dirt coming off a short rest. Like the prep works Violette put into her for this start. Expecting a top effort. Awesome News just missed at this level in May and didn’t handle a muddy track three weeks ago, but has the speed and the figures to succeed here. Lady Marlena tried the turf last out and moves back to the dirt where she dominated a field in May.

Race 3      8-6-3

Day Six is a versatile runner who has won at the mile distance. His last win puts him well on top of this field. Lead Singer looked good at this level last out and appears to be in top form. Harpoon ran a good one first time on the turf since last year. Has show a liking for  the distance and for the BEL grass.

Race 4      5-4-6

Wonderment looked very good in winning her maiden and gets the services of top jock Castellano for this journey. Sea Pebble was strong in her first two maiden events and worked a sparling bullet five days ago. Has legitimate possibilities. Crowd Control was the winner of the June 24 maiden that four horses ran in. No reason to expect a regression.

Race 5      3-11-9-2

Noble Quality flopped on the sloppy track as the favorite, Very likely the fast dirt will cure some of the greenness he showed last time. Jan’s Reserve had some trouble at the start, got into the race, but faded at the end. Improvement likely today. Hunter O’Reilly goes first time for Joe Sharp who is 20% with maiden first timers. Tiz Wonderful is a first rate sire for two year olds. Unbridled Daddy goes for the powerful Pletcher/Castellano combo and can’t be ignored.

Race 6      8-3-7

Claddagh’s Button drops out of a fast MSW turf race into the MCL ranks and picks up a new trainer to boot. Appears better bred for the dirt. Interesting choice here. Ragazza Piu’ Bella ran his best when switched back to the dirt last out and improvement makes him a big factor. Awesome Winter took the overland route last race and couldn’t last. Should enjoy the distance cutback.

Race 7      8-10-2

All Is Number has been looking to break through at this level and perhaps the switch to the turf last time was the tonic he had been looking for. Mark My Style just won an OC $80K two back and closed up well at this class and distance last time. Uncle Mitcho is 12-1 on the ML. He has not been overly impressive in the past, but he was gelded recently and that is enough to give him consideration.

Race 8      4-1-3

Black Tide was grabbed by Nevin two back, jumped up to a starter ALW on the turf and stays on the grass for this one. Showed great liking for the turf and the same race may just put him on top. Magician’s Bullet hasn’t run a bad one in 2015. Should have the lead and will not be easy to pass. Luv Dakota Style fits the level. Likes the distance and the BEL grass.

Race 9      10-4-1-6

Drama King’s last two figures would put him on top in this field. Deserves the favorite’s label. Colorado Grandslam has run well at BEL and is 2 for 3 at the distance. Seems to be in top shape. One Sided just broke his maiden for Pletcher. Has been improving with each start and has competitive numbers. Futurazzo is a longshot with some outs. He has a four race win streak and figures that suggest he can compete in this field.

Race 10   6-5-8-9

Lucky Leroy Brown drops once more in search of a win. He still hasn’t reached his peak and could do it today. Ferocious Tiger had all sorts of trouble last out when he was rank and steadied. Once he got going he made a race of it, finishing a good second in an 11 horse field. Like the chances today. Spanish Armada is 4 of 6 in the money and has numbers as fast as anyone in the field. Key to the Bridge makes a big drop today and is one tolook at in the verticals.

Selections for Saturday assume a fast track and races staying on the turf.  Since the selections are pre-scratches, I’ve added in horses in some races to account for any potential scratches. Selections are still in order of preference.

Race 1      6-5-1

Rick Ant continues dropping down the price ladder. His last race at a mile on the dirt was probably good enough to beat this field. Heavy Hitter looks like a horse asking for more distance. He’s gotten better with each start. Ganso drops way down from his first start. He clearly couldn’t get into the race from the outside, and didn’t particularly take to the turf.  He better suited to this dirt mile. Last workout was eye-catching.

Race 2      2-4-7

Moe Man is a stout 8-1 on the ML. Contessa is decent off the long layoff and the horse has shown he can run well fresh. Usually reliable in his races. Private Tale is a versatile runner who moves to the Joe Sharp barn. Sharp is almost 30% with new arrivals and is almost as good off the short layoff. Won last time after the blinkers came off and they stay off today. I’m Steppin It Up is one of the speed burners and if he gets to relax up front he’ll be dangerous. Rockford is probably his main competition on the front end and there is always the chance they’ll fry each other.

Race 3      3-4-5

Saratoga Snacks and Empire Dreams finished 3/4 of a length apart last out. Hard to come up with a reason to expect they won’t be together in this race. Notacatbutallama is primarily a turf specialist, but is still likely faster than the remainder of the field.

Race 4      1-8-3-2

War Hero flopped last out but two back beat a slightly higher priced field. Is now under the care of Joe Sharp who is exactly that with first time runners. Attractive Ride drops slightly off the win last out. Speedy sort may have to fend off some challenges but has done that before. Love to Run has won his last three recent starts at this price level and looks strong against this group. Oltre’ Oro seems better suited for the six furlong trip and could surprise this group.

Race 5      3-7-4-1

I looked at six horses in this race and even reducing the contenders to four was a tough task. In addition to the four listed, Irish Cat and Fourth of July were of some interest. Bluegrass Rye is 15-1 on the ML but looked like a new horse when put on the turf with blinkers. Looks a lot like my longshot winner from earlier in the week, Polar Axis. Vigilante made a nice impression first time out at CD and picks up Johnny V for the ride. If he’s learned some racing lessons, he’s a real contender. Britannia’s Moat has been effective in his four starts but will have to relax better and distribute his energy more efficiently. If he can do that, he’s in the mix for the win. Sky Tower goes for Kiaran McLaughlin. He’s deadly with second start maidens and first Lasix. Have to take it on faith he will improve this horse substantially.

Race 6      2-3-7

Lucky Lurie and Love That Jazz battled each other all the way around the track last out and are hard to separate here. I’ll stick with the horses that have experience. Dr. Shane is the horse that is interesting here. He ran a good first out and flopped in the Tremont after having a little trouble at the start. His figures are close to what the top two ran, and the odds figure to be quite a bit better.

Race 7      8-11-4-1

Chunnel came close in the Dan Horn at this distance at MTH. Connections aren’t inspiring, but off his best he looks tought to beat. Police Camp improved in his second start of 2015 and went back on the shelf for six weeks. He’s run his best races fresh and if he hits a top he’s competitive here. Mangold broke his maiden at this price and immediately jumped up over his head. He’s back at a more likely level today and should make a better impression. Transcend has been reliably in the money but has trouble getting to the winner’s circle.

Race 8      2-8-10-3

Joking has three seconds in a row at BEL. He is perhaps a little more apt to finish in the money than win but his figures say he is one of the faster runners. Sioux changes to the Michelle Nevin barn for 2015. She’s strong with first time runners and showed good early speed in the Richard Small. Nevin is also good with horses returning off the long layoff. Fits well and if he’s in shape he’s a threat. Dekalb County looks strong (as usual) for Pletcher/Velasquez. The odds won’t be attractive, but his runners are usually competitive. Day of Fury will be one of the front runners but may have trouble hanging on given all the speed in the race. Certainly fits the conditions.

Race 9      8-7-1-4

Perfect Freud looked good last out in the NY Stallion and should be strong against this NW2X group. Figures are very competitive. Here’s Zealicious was a win machine last year but has been more likely to finish in the place and show spots. Still, can’t discount the past record or the strong second at this level two back. Could be the class of the field. Bileaps and Bounds was claimed last out by Sciacca and he is 24% first off the claim. Has all sorts of early speed and if they let her go unchallenged she’s shown the ability to wire a field. Hot Rendezvous is dropping down for this start and has the figures to compete.

Race 10   4-7-9-8

Splendid Gold looks better suited for the six furlong trip and has the best lifetime number. Offlee Good made a nice improvement last out and at 20-1 generates some interest. Connections are not inspiring so caution is advised. Pink Freud Live has been close in her last two and has a good four furlong work in prep for this start. Picks up top rider Castellano for the try. Jamaalaree showed big improvement when dropped to the MCL. If she comes back with that race she’s got outs.

Race 1      3-7-2

Dreaming as Always last race on the good turf was a disappointment but prior to that she won two in a row against slightly better. Should be in a good pressing position and gets a switch to top rider Castellano who is 43% in combination with Clement in the last two years. Graceful Gal has been in top condition for Leo O’Brien in 2015 and has the best lifetime figure. Should be a handful down the lane. Take It Inside is 0 for 9 on the BEL turf but should be the one to catch in the stretch. Speed has looked good on the BEL turf lately.

Race 2      8-7-9

Chico Grande was gelded after his last and drops way down in search of a win. Changed trainers from unheralded Michael Yates to the even less heralded Rodrigo Ubillo, but given his first two starts he looks to have some potential here. The Stone Ranger showed big improvement second time out when Cancel took over the riding duties. Looking for his best third time out. Midnight Joe goes first time for Richard Vega. He has a nice series of works for his debut.

Race 3      1-6-2

Shades of Indygo needed 15 races to break her maiden but since doing that has been competitive with this sort of group. Given the recent figures she is a reluctant top choice. Annie Walker has shown some spark at this level previously and seems to be more reliable on the dirt. Prize Taker looks like a good choice for the verticals, but the 1 for 24 lifetime record leaves me uninspired in the win slot.

Race 4      8-9-5

Tizacinch woke up on the BEL turf at this level last race. He fits at the distance and has competitive figures. At 12-1 ML he’s not to be overlooked. Extensible was gelded since his last and drops into MCL in search of a win. Last race was his best and the Castellano/Brown combination must be respected. The Catmancan has looked good in his BEL races despite having some trouble at the start in his last and being rank in his penultimate race. With a clean trip he is a danger.

Race 5      2-3-6-9

Sweetpollypurebred decided to try this level in 2015 after finishing last year running in state bred stakes. Her top figures have come on the turf at this distance and she may prove to be some value. Graeme Crackers came very close last out and has a figure that looks as good as anything in here. Spuntastic only has three starts and hasn’t made it to the turf yet, but his breeding says it shouldn’t be a problem. If he translates his dirt speed to the turf he’s dangerous. Fantastic Eyes has been at this level a while but can be a factor in the verticals.

Race 6      10-4-8

Longisland Express is probably better suited for the six furlong trip. Ray Handal has been ineffective as a trainer, but the horse looks to be in good condition and has competitive figures. At 15-1 he’s worth a look. Manoffire won two back but was DQ’d. Last out ran into trouble at the break but still ran on well. Definitely the one to beat. Elusive Talmo took well to the turf and may enjoy the cutback in distance.

Race 7      2-3-4

Caval ran a monster maiden race, was outclassed in the Grade 2 Sorrento, and came close to winning an ALW NW2 last out at KEE. Has switched to the Nevin barn and she drops her to a cheap claiming level. If the horse is right, she looks extremely tough. Regina Christina has been running with better and has competitive figures. At 12-1 ML she can’t be ignored. Oh Kay See is another serious price dropper. Looked good in early 2015 but her last two have been disappointing. Still she deserves a look in this group.

Race 8      1-5-7

Clutchingatstraws ran well first time in the U.S. – in fact, his last race figure dominates this field. Clement is exceptional with the Euro shippers. Southern Gem took to the BEL turf for Pletcher. Hard to imagine 6-1 on a live Pletcher horse. Stella Street had trouble at the start last race but still showed interest. Puts the shades on for the strong Brown/Ortiz combo and interestingly he is 19% first time blinkers.

Race 9      9-7-10-2

Boone Station drops out of the MSW ranks and looks perfectly suited for seven furlongs on the turf. Menehune also drops out of MSW, albeit at MTH. Gets a big rider switch to Jose Ortiz and the works look positive. Mill Creek makes his 2015 debut for new trainer Brian Lynch who is strong with new stable arrivals. Chrishi has a lot of starts and in the money finishes. Worth considering in the verticals.