This edition of the Fourstardave Handicap has a small but very competitive field. In fact you can make a case for any of the 6 turf horses scheduled to start . The horse with the most natural speed looks like Sassy Little Lila, and I have a feeling she could be out on an easy lead and hard to catch. However, she’s not proven against males and this is a strong field, but she does give some reason to pause. Time Test is the obvious favorite, but given he couldn’t win in a couple of five horse fields he may be vulnerable. American Patriot was no match for the horses in the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot, but is a multiple graded race winner and has done well at the distance. The horse that has captured my attention is World Approval. He has been consistent and the cutback to a mile should be a big help. I expect him to track Sassy Little Lila and get the jump on the closers, and if he gets a good ride from Franco (an upgrade from Leparoux in my opinion) he can pull off the mild upset.
Saratoga has to be disappointed that only three horses signed on for the Shuvee, and none of the three has been particularly impressive. Paid Up Subscriber has a series of Grade 1’s this year, but hasn’t managed better than a second. I’m going to give the nod to Terra Promessa, mainly because she looks most likely to snatch the lead, and the lead in such a short field is a huge advantage.
This edition of the Vanderbilt Handicap presents an interesting handicapping challenge. Limousine Liberal is the horse to beat and he does look solid in here. You could make a case for most of the runners, but I decided to look for some odds and went with Bird Song. He’s been running nothing but graded races, wiring fields in the Fred W Hooper and the Alysheba. I’m going to excuse the Stephen Foster. Jockey Julian Leparoux broke Bird Song well enough, but pulled him back to fifth, with Bird Song fighting for his head the whole way around the turn and into the backstretch. By the time he finally tried to let the horse go Gun Runner had established an easy lead and drew away. He cuts back in distance, but he’s sprinted well previously and has a win in two tries at Saratoga. If Leparoux rides a little more aggressively, I think Bird Song could come back at a decent price.
Race 9
7 Ascend
1 Bigger Picture
4 Sadler’s Joy
Ascend seems to stick out in the Bowling Green having come off an impressive winning the Manhattan. He’s two for two this year, and has a first and a second in four starts at Saratoga. However, he should be a very short price and if you’re looking for a slightly better price, look at Bigger Picture. He’s been running well in 2017 and comes off a good win in the G1 United Nations. Sadler’s Joy should benefit from the added distance in today’s race and could turn the tables on Ascend.
Race 10
1 Always Dreaming
2 Cloud Computing
Let’s be realistic. After you get by Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing you’re considering horses that have lesser credentials than those two. I’m looking at Always Dreaming on top. His Preakness was admittedly a poor race, but Pletcher believes he’s come back well and should be the Always Dreaming we saw in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. One thing to worry about is the X-factor horse, Pavel, a West-coast invader that has had one sprint race where he showed plenty of speed and could wind up in the same role as Classic Empire in the Preakness. That certainly gives more reason to consider Cloud Computing who showed he was tractable in the Preakness. If you want to believe Pavel will duel Always Dreaming into submission, then Cloud Computing and under the radar horse Giuseppe the Great both have big outs.
