It’s the last day of the AQU main track meeting for 2015 so no shameless promotion of my book, The Kingpins of Riverbend. Yesterday was one of my better days at the meet, when one of my choices finished first in every race, and two of my choices made up the exacta in 8 of 9 races. The day was capped with Winston Kay winning his first race on longshot River Knight, triggering a $517 Pick 4 for $0.50. While I have to handicap anyway to play, I’m not sure there are many people that play based on my picks, so starting next week I’ll only be providing picks for the weekend races in New York, and it will just be the numbers. If I play during the week I’ll tweet out my plays. I’m going to focus my efforts on my blog and I’ll be working on two books this winter, one on horseracing and another fictional novel.

There is an unwritten rule in horseracing. You don’t ask another horseplayer how much he made, for a day or for a year. If he wants to offer, like Andy Beyer did in his book My $50,000 Year at the Races, fine. I’ll offer this. If you followed me all year, you probably got the sense that I had a decent year, and I did. First, I don’t bet every race. As I have said many, many times, if you allocate 50% of your bankroll to win bets, 25% of your bankroll to exactas, and 25% to any of the other bets, and you only bet when there is a value overlay, you may not be able to make a living at the track, but you can make a decent profit. I play one track a day, and most often I’m only playing three or four races, sometimes more, sometimes less. Second, I come up with three contenders in a race, AND I WILL BET ANY OF THE THREE TO WIN IF I BELIEVE THEM TO BE SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAYED. I have given horseplayers a chart so they can tell if exactas are overlayed. You don’t have to do any more work than compare real prices to overlay prices.

I have consistently railed against being selection oriented instead of value oriented. In my opinion, one of the great mistakes horseplayes make is to focus on only one horse in a race. Even the best public handicappers don’t pick more than 25-30% winners on top, and plenty of those are betting underlays. There is only one measure of success, and it is ROI. The aggregate crowd picks 35% winners, yet a bet on every one would produce a negative ROI. I’m not betting 5/2 horses I think should be 5/2, but I’m betting 8/1 horses I think should be 5/2 every time. Trust me, a good handicapper can assess a horse’s chances with uncanny accuracy given enough experience. Sometimes the crowd makes it easy. On Friday my third choice in the race was 15-1. You didn’t even have to make a line to realize that horse was well overlayed, and as someone noted, you only have to hit 1 in 15 of those to break even, and if you are good at evaluating overlays, you are sure to do better than that.

Playing horses is like anything else. If you work harder than the next guy and learn from your mistakes, you can be a winner. Give yourself all the credit for your success, but take equal responsibility for your failures. Most of all set your expectations realistically.

There is a lot of negativity about racing, and much of it is legitimate. The take is too high and field size is often too small. There are computer betting programs and rebate whales. Frankly, I don’t give a shit if you believe me or not, but I make profit at the track. Since I give away everything for free, I don’t need to inflate my success. I publish my picks every day so anyone who wants to check me, have at it. It is possible to win over an extended period, even with the obstacles, as long as you have discipline, and you get into the right pools.

I understand a lot of people wouldn’t enjoy playing like I do – one track, maybe half the races at the track in a day. I rarely bet a Pick 6 (at AQU Saturday, no one hit the Pick 6, but my blog published the winners of each of the P6 races) and sometimes I regret the decision, but I won’t make major adjustments to my M.O. I have a weakness for Pick 3’s and 4’s, and they constitute a good part of my 25% other bets, along with trifectas, but I’ve trained myself not to jump into those pools unless I have a very solid opinion. I try to keep 75% of my money in the win and exacta pools and 25% looking to catch some boxcars.

A lot of people enjoy betting multiple tracks and all kinds of lottery bets, and I’m sure there are people who do that and also make profit. What I do works for me, but I wouldn’t be so arrogant as to think there is only one way to play. The only thing I’ll say is that you cannot conflate betting with winning. You can’t convince yourself that a lot of action, regardless of the outcome is more satisfying than betting in a way that leaves you in the black. Focusing $300 on win and exacta is most likely to give you a better chance at profit than dropping $300 into the Pick 6 pool. That’s where I’ve ended up. I’m happy with a balance sheet healthily in the black even if I limit myself to half the races at NYRA. I’m long past needing the action. I can enjoy a race I’m invested in, and I can enjoy a race where I’m just spectating.

As I said, I don’t give a shit if you believe me, and I don’t give a shit if you take my advice. I shared what works for me. Take it for what it is worth. If you want more detail, ask me and I’ll be happy to answer any questions. I’ve written excellent articles about how to handicap, how to set win lines, and how to bet exactas. The sections in my blog on handicapping are as good as anything out there because I’ve been a published, professional horseracing author for over 25 years, and believe me I’ve gotten plenty of feedback. I’ve tried to do a lot for horseplayers with my handicapping articles and my blog and no one has had to pay a dime. Use it or not, it’s up to you.

Meanwhile, Sunday’s picks for AQU.

Race 1      2-8-1

Race 2      5-1A-3

Race 3      3-7-5

Race 4      9-2-4

Race 5      4-8-3-1

Race 6      10-4-12

Race 7      6-4-9-7

Race 8      5-3-7-1

Race 9      11-6-3

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1       3-2-7-8

Race 2       1-4-2

Race 3       9-8-3-1

Race 4      4-2-6-7

Race 5      4-6-3

Race 6      5-12-2

Race 7      1-7-12-9

Race 8      6-4-5

Race 9      10-6-4

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1       3-5-6

Race 2       8-6-5

Race 3       4-3-2

Race 4       Dirt:  12-8-2B

Race 5       4-1/1A-7

Race 6       Turf:  4-8-9

Race 7       8-1-4

Race 8       Turf:  7-1-8

Race 9       6-2-5

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      1-4-2

Race 2      2-11-3

Race 3      1-3-6

Race 4      4-3-10-2

Race 5      2-1-6

Race 6      15-11-5-9

Race 7      7-6-8-2

Race 8      1-11-4-6

Race 9      2-7-4

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      2-4-3

Race 2      3-4-5

Race 3      14-7-10

Race 4      2-7-1

Race 5      1A-4-7

Race 6      8-2-5

Race 7      2-7-4

Race 8      2-4-7-1

Race 9      7-4-1A

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      4-6-1

In a race with a fairly sad group of entrants, I looked to find something more solid than Jazz Player but landed on him anyway. He should have the controlling speed, and with the drop and price should be able to hold to the wire. Chief Assignment ran well on the AQU dirt last out in his first start in seven months. While he’s earned most of his way to professional maiden, this is a weak field and his last race figure says competitive. The David Cannizo entry both look competitive in this field. Promise and Hope is dropping to his lowest price and Mischeivous One had an excuse in his last when dropped to this level.

Race 2      6-1-5

Unstoppable You was claimed last out by Robert Barbara who is not strong first off the claim, but he’s got great front running ability and seems to be in top shape. Was with much better earlier in the year and may be on the way back up. The Jacobsen entry both have outs here. He’s been scratching one of the entry horses lately, but I’ll stick with the one that remains if he does scratch one. Mack Miller won at $14K two back and ran evenly despite hesitating at the start last out when jumped for $20K. He’s in the mix here.

Race 3      3-5-6

Drama King has been doing fairly well in state-bred stakes and optional claimers, and has the figures to win in this field. Readtheprospectus just won and was claimed by DJ. Jumps up a little today and DJ still runs 25% first off the claim. Has been with better in the recent past and may be up to handling this field. One Sided hasn’t been out of the money in his last 8 races, puts blinkers on today and figures to get a good trip. If he wins it would be no surprise.

Race 4      5-10-4

Mind Magic ran well on the AQU turf last out and while I couldn’t give him a 4/5 chance here, he does look best in this field. Three’s Are Wild ran well in the early part of the race on the AQU turf, fading badly at the end. But he probably needed the race and you have to respect speed on this turf. Holy Week runs his best on the turf and has some liking for the AQU turf. Has got outs at 8-1 ML.

Race 5      9-7-3

Winter Wish was claimed by John Parisella two back and was moved up to a state-bred allowance where she ran a new top. Parisella has been quietly having a good year, winning at a 27% overall, and having 100% of his runners in the money at AQU. Hard to go against him off the drop. Enduring Touch has three place finishes in a row at this level and consistent figures. Looks competitive if she develops an interest in winning. Kitty Ride drops down from state-bred allowances to the claiming ranks for this one. Last race was the first in a while and was on the turf. She’s back on the dirt today and off her best has good outs.

Race 6      2-6-7

Absatootly ran well as an outsider first time out and returns at the same level with a figure that doesn’t need much improvement to be the winner here. Super Allison finished behind a couple of these last out but should have learned some lessons in that race. Expect improvement today. Bea Bea showed some interest on the sloppy BEL dirt and has prepped well for this race. A repeat of the BEL fig puts her right in the mix.

Race 7      10-6-3-9

Comes the Dream was claimed last out by DJ when he dropped to his lowest level in the last two years. Prior to that he had been turfing with some solid OC $62K horses. He looks better suited for the mile distance and off his best looks to be a winner. No Texting has good early speed and just missed last out. Looks to be in good shape for this affair. Sun Worshipper has two thirds in three tries on the AQU turf and his last race was a new top for him. American Guest is another that has a good race on the AQU turf and has been competitive at higher levels. Turf numbers look competitive.

Race 8      8-2-6

The New York Stallion series at seven furlongs in the Sunday feature. Empire Dreams has been running exclusively in this state bred stakes and has field-topping figures. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and on the AQU dirt. Has the best closing kick in the field. Loki’s Vengeance has good early foot and has a win over the AQU dirt. & furlongs may stretch his ability but he has been competitive with these sorts before. John’s Island is another with competitive numbers, some aptitide at AQU and ability with this level.

Race 9      2-7-1-3

The finale pits 2 year old maidens at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. E J’s Legacy made a big  close last out at huge odds. A repeat should be enough to take this field. Ranger’s Coming looked good first time with state-bred maidens on the AQU turf. Figure says he’s a major contender.Sax Change goes for the fifth time. He’s shown an aptitude on the AQU turf and has run consistent numbers. Yummy Bear puts the blinkers on in search of his first win.

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      9-2-6-5

Sherry’s Miracle ran his first two races on the turf and switched to the dirt last out. He looked good in the move to the dirt and seems more apt at the sprint distance. Based on that last race he is as good as anything in the field and the 10-1 ML is attractive. Gehrig lost to monster runner Spooked Out but managed to hold second. He’s well bred for the distance and it looks like the competition might be a little softer. Hit It Once More flopped at AQU last out but before that had been knocking. Good looking drill in prep for this one. Cloontia is a half to Wicked Strong and has been working decently in prep for this one. Sire is around 14% first time. Worth thinking about for James Jerkens who is decent with debut runners.

Race 2      5-2-6-3

Between the Lines is a consistent horse, always somewhere close at the finish. His last race was his first in a while, and he stayed competitive to the end. His figures from earlier this year would dominate the field and if he got what he needed from his last start he’s the one to beat. Altar Boy won at first asking for Todd Pletcher and returns in search of a win against winners. Some improvement second time out puts him in the mix. Loose on the Town returns fresh after being drubbed by BC Sprint winner Runhappy in the King’s Bishop. His penultimate race he ran into Waco, a horse that ran lights out at the Spa. His workouts suggest he’s ready to roll and would be no surprise in the winner’s circle. Possillicious has good speed and a tendency to finish in the money.

Race 3      1-4-2

Flora Dora finished a closing second in the G3 Tempted on this surface. Is one of a few in this race with the credentials to win. Mo d’Amour goes second out for Pletcher/Castellano. Given Pletcher has three going in this race he’s got big chances to walk away with a win. Mo d’Amour looks speediest of the three and has a nice work in prep for this. Lewis Bay is the Chad Brown offering. She dominated a field last out, running the last eight in a tick over 12 seconds. She looks ready to roll.

Race 4      1-6-9

Very tough betting race. Of the horses that have started, Inspector Lynley looks to have the edge. He’s got a start at the distance and McGaughey is 23% with second start maidens. His first start showed a closing style, so if he stays with that he’ll need pace to run at. Snag is the Pletcher/Castellano entrant and is another with a closing style. Big Beyer number ensures he’ll get plenty of action, but off his last he isn’t perhaps as dominating as that number suggests. He’ll be tough but is not invincible. Annals of Time is a first timer for Chad Brown who is a solid 22% with debut runners. Irad is his go-to guy and the works look like typical Brown.

Race 5      3-4-6

This edition of the Remsen has a number of talented runners signed up. Mohaymen was a $2.2 million purchase and has been handled conservatively by McLauhglin. His first race showed good promise and his next start was a convincing win in the Grade 2 Nashua. His first two starts were made without Lasix, but he gets it today. The talent is there, the distance breeding is there, and the style looks good. Flexibility ran a solid second to the top choice in the Nashua and he looks second best again today. Gift Box is the other Chad Brown runner. He broke his maiden at BEL in the slop, and he will be a contender if he runs that race this time.

Race 6      8-9-1

Wicked Freud has one out of the money finish in four starts and looks to be improving. Mile distance shouldn’t be a problem. Hirschbein had been off since Saratoga, came back with a decent run at AQU, and puts blinkers on for today’s run. Should enjoy the cutback to a mile. Island Therapy has made a living finishing second, but is coming off a win at AQU at today’s distance. Some outs.

Race 7      3-9-1

Wonder Gal spent the year struggling against Grade 1 and 2 company until finally topping a state-bred stakes. She’s back in graded company today, but the field looks like one she can handle. Forever Unbridled is another that has been slighly overwhelmed in Grade 1 races. She ran up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, laid off until October and finished a close  fifth in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland. Gets Johnny V for today’s run. Peace and War failed in the BC distaff, but is another that has gotten a sniff in Graded races this year. Figures definitely indicate competitiveness.

Race 8      6-2-1

With the scratch of Plainview Orino gets an advantage by having less competition on the front end. He was outless against the top state bred turfers like Lubash, King Kreesa and Kharafa in the Mohawk and the West Point, but is in a much more amenable spot today. Has a win and a place in three tries on the AQU turf.  Bombaguia was off over a year and a half until returning at BEL in September. His first two races were fairly close figurewise to his previous efforts before the layoff, and at 20-1 ML I’m thinking about taking a chance that Kimmel has brought the horse all the way back. Moutin won his first start in the U.S. at AQU on the turf, but since then has been in and out. He’s 4 of 6 at the mile distance and McLaughlin is 23% off the medium layoff, but using jockey DeSousa (28 0 3 7) may keep me from using the horse heavier.

Race 9      7-3-5

This is a competitive version of the Cigar Mile. Private Zone is the obvious speed and other than Marking it looks like he gets to set his own fractions. If the track is at all speed favoring, Private Zone is a major danger of going wire to wire. Red Vine has been matriculating with graded milers for the last half of the year and was a decent third to the outstanding Liam’s Map in the BC Mile. Certainly has the credentials to compete here. Tonalist has a win at a mile in the Westchester. Interestingly puts the blinkers on, and his win in the Westchester was with the shades. You can’t give him too much blame for the second in the Met Mile, but he did beat Private Zone in that race. Tonalist would be no surprise here.

Race 10   5-4-7

The finale is a state-bred MSW and is wide open. Kitty Maddnes is one of a few horses coming out of the October 30  race. The pace in that race was not particularly fast but she did manage to make up quite a few lengths. Another race not filled with pace, but she did it once and could do it again. Alabama Bound broke well back in that same 10/30 MSW but also showed some close. Mott is well known to not do well with first timers, but second time out he is much stronger. With a better break she might be a more prominent factor. Preying Mantis has shown an ability to break and go to the front. Her race on October 9 was better than looked, and she flopped again next out, but that race was off the turf  and she looked more apt on the grass. At 10-1 she’s an interesting possibility.