Race 1

• 4  Beach Hut  5/2

• 6  Erik the Red  3-1

• 3  Galardonado  7/2

• 1  Still Krz  4-1

Beach Hut was dropped to his lowest level last out and was claimed by Naipaul Chatterpaul. Good at the distance and his one BEL start. Erik the Red makes a huge drop in his second start of 2016 for Linda Rice. Galardonado looks like the speed. Still Krz seems the better of the Jacobson entry.

Race 2

• 6  Ellie Girl  3-1

• 8  Sweet Ella  7/2

• 3  Mo’s Ginny  4-1

• 4  Qualifying  4-1

Race 3

• 4  Guapaza  8/5

• 1  Trophee  5/2

• 2  Songoficeandfire  5/2

This looks like a three horse race. Guapaza edges the field on figures, but Trophee and Songoffireandice are strong contenders.

Race 4

• 1  Tellmeafookystory  3-1

• 3  Haul Anchor  7/2

• 5  Mission Command  4-1

• (11  Giant Rocks – AE)

Tellmeafookystory was purchased for 10 times the stud fee and Schettino is decent with first timers. Haul Anchor is a Bernardini colt trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. I like the RuRod first timers like Mission Command these days, especially since he is still at 23%. Giant Rocks gets top three status if he draws in.

Race 5

• 1  Regulus  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 2  Pass the Dice  7/2

• 3  Sunny Puzzle  4-1

Regulus was very wide throughout the race but looked strong closing against a wire to wire winner. Pass the Dice and Sunny Puzzle make big price drops.

Race 6

• 2  Imperia  2-1

• 8  Mission Driven  5/2

• 1  Nigel’s Destiny  4-1

Imperia actually has a G3 win in his past and McLaughlin seems to have him pointed in the right direction. Mission Driven was switched over to the Chad Brown barn after running big in the Hawthorne Derby. That makes him a contender. Nigel’s Destiny will have to get back to his best form to be the winner.

Race 7

• 3  Know It All Anna  3-1  ** HORSE TO WATCH

• 6  So You Say  7/2

• 5  Summer Reading   7/2

Know It All Anna was not ready for the start  in her last race and banged against the starting gate, losing four lengths out of the gate. She rushed into contention, getting within a length and a half of the leader, but could not sustain the drive. She’s better than the 15-1 ML. So You Say and Summer Reading look like the class of the field and have to be respected.

Race 8

• 6  Tambourin  2-1

• 5  Make a Decision  3-1

• 3  Montclair  4-1

• 4  Request  9/2

Race 9

• 7  Ginned Up  2-1

• 10  Lady’s First  3-1

• 2  Talkin Til Midnight  4-1

Race 1

• 5  Bobby on Fleek  3-1

• 9  Ruckus  4-1

• 6  Altito  9/2

This is the first race in a day full of tough races. While Chad Brown seems to specialize in first time turf fillies, Bobby on Fleek looks live. His June workout pattern is strong and he’s well bred for the distance. Ruckus is another with some eye-catching works and breeding that says sprint. Altito has five bullet works in a row which suggests talent.

Race 2

• 10  Feeling Bossy  3-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 7  Wild About Harry  7/2

• 11  My Kinda Gal  4-1

• 6  Eloweasel  5-1

Feeling Bossy didn’t break sharply in his last, was well back down the backstretch, worked his way outside, took the lead in the stretch and drew away by many. Wild About Harry is making her 2016 debut after showing decently last year. Her two year old numbers suggest talent and Rice is usually effective with horses coming off the layoff. My Kinda Gal had a strong win at BEL opening week in a NW1X and has had plenty of time to recover. Eloweasel just won at BEL at big odds. Seems to be a horse on the improve.

Race 3

• 2  Adulator  2-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 3  Ekhlaas  4-1

• 1  Dreamsdocometrue  4-1

Adulator took up at the break last out and wound up last by six early. He looked to make a move up the rail around the turn, switched outside but did not have enough to get by the leader, losing the whole thing by a diminishing two lengths. Ekhlaas ran a quick race last out. Since it was his first of the year, a repeat could put him first to the wire.  Dreamsdocometrue hasn’t been out of the money in his last eight starts and looks solid to hit the board.

Race 4

• 7  Revved Up  2-1

• 3  Defiantly  3-1

• 1  Decisive Triumph  4-1

• 4  Richmond Street  5-1

Revved Up looked good just missing at this distance a month and a half ago, and while I think the ML overrates the horse, he’s a major contender. Defiantly hasn’t been the distance but does have the best last race figure. Decisive Triumph is proven at the distance and has a powerful closing kick. In a race with almost no speed Richmond Street may have the pace advantage.

Race 5

• 9  Disco Partner  5/2

• 4  Captain Gaughen  3-1

• 6  Speeding Comet  4-1

• 7  Zandar  5-1

This is a tough race because the second, third and fourth place finishers in the June 2 race at this price and distance are coming back today. I couldn’t put them all in, but I did use Speeding Comet and Zandar today. Disco Partner just missed in the G3 Jaipur a month ago. Has had success at the distance and favors the BEL turf. Captain Gaughen shows elements of improvement since moving to the RuRod barn. Has three seconds in five tries at the distance and has shown a liking for the BEL green. Speeding Comet  and Zandar (along with Changewilldoyagood) both ran well in the aforementioned June 2 race. In fact they all ran a similar race. Perhaps the post position advantage will help the two I selected.

Race 6

• 4  One True Kiss  3-1

• 9  Coppa  3-1

• 8  Lost Raven  4-1

One True Kiss already has a second in a G3 and may be the one to pick up the pieces if the race breaks down. Coppa ships in from SoCal. She’s definitely got talent, but I can’t see her as the favorite in this race given all the quality speed. Lost Raven just won a G3 at PIM. Another with speed and potential.

Race 7

• 6  Economic Model  2-1

• 4  Laoban  3-1

• 8  Fish Trappe Road  4-1

The Dwyer attracted an interesting field of 8 three year old colts and geldings. Economic Model was on the Triple Crown trail but threw in a clunker in the Tampa Bay Derby and took a couple of months to re-tool..  Chad Brown brought him back in good shape and he’s on a two race winning streak. Seems to have really picked up his game in the last couple of months. Laoban ran well in a weak Gotham and showed good speed in the Blue Grass. The Preakness race can be dismissed due to the sloppy track. He should be the one to catch. Fish Trappe Road has run well at BEL and has a top last race figure.

Race 8

• 7  Long Island Sound  5/2

• 4  Highland Sky  3-1

• 10  Humphrey Bogart  7/2

• 6  Camelot Kitten  7/2

The Belmont Derby came up tough enough that one of my HORSES TO WATCH (Toughest ‘Ombre) didn’t make the top three after running a a top effort in the Pennine Ridge. Long Island Sound is the first of the Aidan O’Brien horses that shipped over for this race. He’s Group 3 placed, proven at the distance, and has been in with some tough three year olds. Highland Sky just missed in the Pennine Ridge  and was strong in the Woodhaven and the Cutler Bay. He seems to have matured as a three year old and may be the best of the American runners. Of all the horses at all the racetracks in the world,  Humphrey Bogart had to show up at Belmont.  Actually, he’s been an active three year old in Europe that’s been close in group events but hasn’t cracked the top three. His Euro numbers are good, perhaps a step behind the top choice, but he can’t be dismissed. Camelot Kitten won the Pennine Ridge and is looking for three in a row for Chad Brown. Certainly one of the contenders. Airoforce and Deauville might have been bet in a different field, but in this group they didn’t crack my top choices. Still, they are contenders and could be used in the horizontals and verticals.

Race 9

• 5  Effinex  3-1

• 3  Shaman Ghost  4-1

• 2  Mubtaahij  4-1

This is another race with a quality field. Solid graded horses like Noble Bird, Eagle, Turco Bravo and Samraat didn’t crack my top three, although any of them might run a top effort today. Effinex started the year with a third in the prestigious Santa Anita Handicap, then won the Oaklawn Handicap before faltering in the Stephen Foster after breaking poorly and racing wide. He’s a year older than he was last year when he finished second in the BC Classic to super horse American Pharoah, but he still looks like the most talented runner in the race.  Regular jock Mike Smith re-mounts for this effort. Shaman Ghost comes off a win in the G2 Brooklyn. The switch to trainer Jimmy Jerkens seems to have reinvigorated the horse. Mubtaahij tried the Derby and Belmont last year with little success. He’s back here after running a strong second to California Chrome in the Dubai World Cup. He’s had plenty of time to recover and may be the one who races closest to Noble Bird early.

Race 10

• 12  Catch a Glimpse  3-1

• 7  Ballydoyle  4-1

• 2  Decked Out  5-1

• 5  Noble Beauty  5-1

The Belmont Oaks is another of the competitive races on the card, with graded winners like Pricedtoperfection, Harmonize, and Auntie Joy didn’t make the cut but certainly have a chance, as well as the improving Time and Motion, Last Waltz, Land Over Sea, Magnanime, and Coolmore. Catch a Glimpse should be all the speed and has a seven race win streak going. Hard to pick against in this spot. Ballydoyle is another of the Aidan O’Brien shippers. She’s a Group 1 winner and is a major contender off her best. Decked Out ships in from SA where’s he was competitive in a series of Graded events. Should do fine with the stretch out. Noble Beauty is a lightly raced horse for Chad Brown. While she doesn’t have the resume of some in here, her nice second place finish in the Regret shows her to be an improving horse. Castellano/Brown hits at a 33% rate.

Race 11

• 2  Private Zone  9/5

• 9  Marking  3-1

• 8  Ready for Rye  4-1

Private Zone missed his scheduled start in the True North due to trainer trouble, but given his last work he should be on edge today. Loves BEL and the distance. Marking ran well in the Metropolitan after shipping here from Dubai, but nobody was beating Frosted that day. Has a lot of speed to contend with, but he doesn’t need the lead to win. Ready for Rye was a strong third in the Jaipur and is multiple graded placed. He’s back on the dirt at a track and a distance he relishes.

Race 1

• 2  Smooth Daddy  5/2

• 4  Twilight Eclipse  3-1

• 1  Golden Sabre  7/2

Smooth Daddy ran well in the G3 Ft. Marcy and has had some strong races at the OC level. Distance should be no issue. Twilight Eclipse is a veteran campaigner still running in Graded events. While he may not be the horse he once was, but he still has the talent to be a factor today,

Race 2

• 3  Majestic Lassie  5/2

• 5  Victoria Road  5/2

• 2  Littlemissbusiness  3-1

Somewhat ambiguous race. The choices are horses that are dropping out of MSW races into a cheap claimer. Majestic Lassie ships in from PRX where she ran relatively evenly. Victoria Road goes first time for Leah Giamati. The horse was a $100K purchase as a yearling but has had a lot of trouble getting to the racetrack, with her first workout over a year ago. She’s well bred and particularly well bred for the distance. Perhaps a bit chancey, especially at potentially small odds. Littlemissbusiness has shown speed at a route, and may appreciate the cutback to a sprint. You can probably throw out the mud effort. Will probably get a ton of action, and may be the best horse in the race, but as I said it’s not a race to get too excited about.

Race 3

• 4  Royal Posse  9/5

• 2  Sioux  3-1

• 3  Wake Up in Malibu  4-1

This is a small field with a few talented runners. Royal Posse is six of seven first or second at BEL and has been running in a steady string of statebred and restricted stakes. The numbers suggest he is the most consistent. Sioux and Wake Up Malibu are the speed horses and in a short field they may have the advantage. If the race breaks down that may throw in Good Luck Gus.

Race 4

• 1  Snap Cat  5/2

• 8  Christening  7/2

• 6  Song for the Soul  4-1

Snap Cat goes first time for RuRod. While the workouts are not remarkable that seems to be a pattern for the trainer. Irad takes the mount and that is a very positive sign. Christening ran better than looked last out, breaking a step slow and having all sorts of trouble when she tried to close. Worth a second look. Song for the Soul has some nice workouts and Wesley Ward is 24% with first timers.

Race 5

• 3  Richie’s Rich  2-1

• 2  Brolic  3-1

• 1  Rich n’ Tuck  4-1

Richie’s Rich jumps up in price off of two impressive wins in a row. He’s got a good turn of speed and the numbers say he’s not over his head. Brolic loves to win and likes the BEL dirt. Rich n’ Tuck has the top last race figure. Could be the Richie-Rich exacta.

Race 6

• 6  Congarette  3-1

• 3  Somerset Sandy  7/2

• 4  Ametrine  4-1

Congarette looked good first time with winners and seems to have really responded to the turf. Somerset Sandy hasn’t really run a bad one yet. Ametrine comes off a close 6th in the NY Stallion’s series and has figures competitive with the others in the field.

Race 7

• 5  Nile Princess  3-1

• 2  Aussie Prayer  7/2

• 8   Orzo  4-1

This is a difficult race so I’m going to price. Nile Princess ran a good one on May 22, making the horses to watch list. She had a bad trip last time, saving ground the whole way but getting trapped behind a wall of horses before she was able to angle out and show some close.   She’s better than 10-1 if she gets a decent trip, and from the five post she has a much better chance to run her race. Aussie Prayer seems to have a tendency to finish in the money. In her last she had every chance to run by the winner but would not. Verticals horse. Orzo broke her maiden last out and tries with winners today.

Race 8

• 6  Queen’s Parade  3-1

• 3  Carnevale  7-2

• 2  Desiree Clary  4-1

Queen’s Parade has only been out of the money once in the last two years. Has the best set of figures in the race. Carnevale has been looking for a win since shipping in from England and moves to a slightly easier NW2X. Desiree Clary makes her first start since moving to the U.S.Clement is a solid 22% with Euro debut runners.

Race 9

• 1  Peculiar Sensation  7/2

• 2  Here Comes R J  4-1

• 6  El Genio  5-1

Mr. Curiosity barely missed last out in his first start of 2016. Looks good for the return. Peculiar Sensation is proven at the distance and the price. Here Comes R J has a lot of starts but maybe the switch to the Nevin barn will get him past the wire on top. El Genio doesn’t look like a win sort, but does like finishing in the money.

Happy 4th of July.  Hope everyone has a great Independence Day.

Race 1

• 10  Right Ben  3-1

• 4  Benny Big Boy  4-1

• 3  Lucky Lou Pal  5-1

Race 2

• 6  Ferocious Tiger  2-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 8  Gunlock  3-1

• 1  Arctic King  4-1

Race 3

• 6  Mind Your Biscuits  8/5

• 1  Ganador  3-1

• 2  Fratello Del Nord  4-1

Race 4

• 2  Dontbetwithbruno  2-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 1  Touchofstarquality  2-1

• 6  Elnaawi  3-1

Race 5

• 3  Scarlet Goddess  3-1

• 5  Ragazza Piu’ Bella  4-1

• 10  Shovalla  5-1

Race 6

• 6  Spring to the Sky  5/2

• 8  Mosler  3-1

• 9  Summation Time  4-1

• 5  Dowse’s Beach  5-1

Race 7

• 5  Encrypt  7/5

• 8  Huntington Drive  5/2

• 4  Shore Leave  4-1

Race 8

• 4  Hello Don Julio  3-1

• 3  Birchwood Road  4-1

• 7  Tobias  9/2

• 2  Tiz Town  5-1

Race 9

• 8  Strike Midnight  3-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 2  Giant Run 3-1

• 1  Too Discreet  9/2

• 5  Conquest See Ya  5-1

Race 10

• 7  Katie Ice  7/2

• 5  Dream On  4-1

• 8  Sea Pebble  5-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 1  Tough Temper  5-1

Race 1

• 4  Malibu Princess  9/5

• 1A  Theatric  5/2

• 2  Madcap Heiress  4-1

Race 2

• 11  Summer Sweet  3-1

• 2  Iron Mizz  7/2

• 12  Scatter Point  5-1

Race 3

• 1  Aripeka  9/5

• 4  Street Shark  3-1

• 6  Protection  7/2

Race 4

• 4  Hot City Girl  2-1

• 6  Haveyougoneaway  3-1

• 2  Court Dancer  4-1

Race 5

• 5  Stormy Victoria  2-1

• 2  Distorted Beauty  3-1

• 6  Miss Ella  7/2

Race 6

• 4  Buckskin Doll  3-1

• 8  Stone Supplier  7/2

• 6  Hot Dudette  4-1

Race 7

• 3  Wild Chatter  3-1

• 8  Maddizaskar   7/2

• 2  Royal Temptress   4-1

• 4  Carta Regis   5-1

Race 8

• 5  Kharafa  3-1

• 1  Macagone  4-1

• 2  Enterprising  9/2

• 8  Almasty  5-1

Race 9

• 2  Nobody Move  3-1

• 4  Humboldt N Frost  7/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 6  Jet Black  4-1

Race 10

• 5  Flying K C  2-1  ** HORSE TO WATCH

• 2  Satin Frost  3-1

• 9  Freckle de Feck  4-1

Race 1

• 3  Libby’s Tall  3-1

• 1  Golden Mischief  3-1

• 5  Coasted  4-1

Difficult two year old affair to start the day. Libby’s Tale is one of the last of the Tiz Wonderful’s to be bred in America. They are exceptional first time out and on wet tracks, and Rudy Rodriguez has good numbers with debut horses. Golden Mischief already has two starts, one in the Astoria. She looked good in both races and would be no surprise in the win slot.

Race 2

• 6  Spearhead  3-1 

• 4  Royal Saint  7/2 9/5

• 2  Tashreeh  4-1 5/2

I thought you could make a case for about any of the horses. Spearhead is about 50% first or second (although more seconds than wins) and should be around at the finish. Royal Saint ships in from CD, but he has one good race at Belmont. Tashreeh looked good in his first on the turf in a while. Off the turf: Tasreeh has a strong win in the mud at BEL. Royal Saint hadn’t been on the turf and has done well on the wet dirt. May turn out to be the favorite. The top turf choices are also the top wet track horses. Both Zoom and Los Borrrachos have shown an affinity for wet tracks. 

Race 3

• 6 Norm the Giant 5/2 **HORSE TO WATCH

• 2 Miroc 3-1

• 3 Il Fratello 7/2

Norm the Giant got off to a slow beginning in his last race, dropping back 12 lengths early, made a furious close to nab the place and was getting to the winner late. Miroc has shown good speed at BEL.

Race 4

• 1  Commend/Seize  4/5

• 7  Art Boss  5/2

• 5  Rate For Me  3-1

The Mott entry of Commend and Seize both look superior in this field. Art Boss ran well in his debut race and has good turf breeding.

Race 5

• 1  Man of Wiregrass  9/5

• 3  Zartax  3-1

• 8  Daggerpoint  4-1

Man of Wiregrass has shown an ability to prompt the pace and should appreciate the cutback in distance.  Zartax has a strong win on the BEL slop and takes a big drop from his first start with winners. Daggerpoint comes in off the MTO list.

Race 6

• 7  Rock Me Again  3-1

• 8  Ice Festival  7/2

• 2  Dea  4/1

• 3  Taralena  5-1

Rock Me Again ran in a restricted, State-bred stake last out at PEN, drops today into this OC $25K. Has a win on the BEL turf and should negotiate the distance. Ice Festival has also been competitive at BEL and at the distance. Dea has been competitive in most of her races and seems to run consistent figures.

Race 7

• 7  Hey Bro  9/5

• 3  Proven Commodity  3-1

• 6  Classic Salsa  4-1

Hey Bro hasn’t been out of the money in his last six and is coming off a win. Frankly, there are a number of horses in here with chances, but I like the consistency and the fact Hey Bro is hard trying. Proven Commodity has been off a long while, but looks like the best speed. Albertrani has been known to pop one off the layoff. Classic Salsa is high percentage at the distance and on the BEL dirt.

Race 8

• 7  Mississippi Delta  2-1

• 8  Onus  5/2

• 6  My Sweet Girl  4-1

Very difficult race to handicap, and will depend on the condition of the track. Mississippi Delta may be better suited for the sprint distances but the mile is certainly not beyond her capability. Onus prepped well in her first race of 2016 and has been given sufficient time to recover. Should be tough in this spot. My Sweet Girl is better than her ML odds and could be used in the verticals.

Race 9

• 5  Lewis Bay  9/5

• 6  Rachel’s Valentine  9/5

• 2  Off the Tracks  3-1

Lewis Bay has a second in the BEL mud and has been strong in her Graded events. Rachel Valentina looks to be the better of the Pletcher entrants and breeding suggests a wet track should be no issue. Off the Tracks ran well in the first leg of the filly Triple Crown, the Acorn, and is another of the strong Pletcher runners.

Race 10

• 2  Potentially  7/5

• 3  Irish Prayer  8/5

• 7  Bedside Blues  4-1

This is not a high grade field and may or may not stay on the turf. Potentially is dropping out of straight maidens and that makes him a contender. Irish Prayer has a close second at this level and has shown some ability on a wet track. Bedside Blues has the best speed and should be better off at the sprint distance.

The weather may be an issue today, but I’m posting picks for a fast dirt and a firm turf. Once changes are posted I may make some adjustments.

Race 1

• 4  Shadow Rider  9/5

• 3  Rare Eagle  3-1

• 2  General Bellamy  7/2

Race 2

• 3  Jewel Heist  5/2

• 6  Zorzor  3-1

• 1  Filet of Sole/Always Dreaming  3-1

Race 3

• 6  Uptown Liza  3-1

• 5  Overly Indulgent  7/2

• 1  Cheering for Al  4-1

Race 4

• 1  Piccolo Flats  3-1

• 6  Sweetgrass 7/2

• 3  Stroke Play  4-1

Race 5

• 8  Esther the Queen  3-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 1  Lamontagne  7/2

• 6  Northern Screamer  4-1

Race 6

• 1  Massena  9/5

• 7  Summer Bourbon  3-1

• 2  Kenyan  4-1

Race 7

• 2  Siding Spring  5/2

• 7  Cort  3-1

• 8  Royal Asset  4-1

Race 8

• 3  Paige  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 1  Akatea  3-1

• 2  Coming Attraction  4-1

Race 9

• 4  St. Louie  3-1

• 6  Elroi  7/2

• 8  Ghareeb  5-1

Race 1

• 6  Dynamo Flotilla  3-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 1  Frosti Agosti  7/2

• 5  Call Me Stoney  7/2

Dynamo Flotilla was dead last entering the stretch by at least 10 lengths, found a lane on the rail, and closed furiously to catch the place. Frosti Agosti looked good breaking his maiden, jumped to an ALW NW1X where he showed some speed before fading. Back to a more benevolent level today. Call Me Stoney has good speed and seems to enjoy finishing in the money. Solid in the verticals.

Race 2

• 7  All Day Lawn  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 6  Quigley’s Corner  5/2

• 3  My Good Venezuela  4-1

All Day Lawn walked out of the gate, rushed to press the leader but could not sustain. Finished with some courage. Tom Quigley was my publisher when I was writing for Horseplayer Magazine and he now hangs out at the eponymously name Quigley’s Corner at Santa Anita. Shipper with some outs.

Race 3

• 4  Sabrina Ballerina  1-1

• 5  Grassaria  3-1

• 3  Laura’s Moon  4-1

Sabrina Ballerina looks dominant considering the other horses likely to get bet have some downside.

Race 4

• 2  Western Reserve  9/5

• 5  Ascend  9/5

• 3  Winter Springs  3-1

Mott, Motion and Brown. Looks like a trifecta from here.

Race 5

• 4  Tree Top Lover  5/2

• 2  Choir Director 3-1

• 3  Biaviian  7/2

• 9  Lightning Buzz  9/2

Tree Top Lover is listed at 7/5 on the ML. I think that’s too low and definitely not value. But given the big drop in price, it’s hard not to put him in the top slot. He and Choir Director are the speed horses, and are both dropping out of straight maidens. Lightning Buzz has been off a while after getting claimed by Gary Gullo, and Gullo has a strong percentage with first after the claim. A potential price horse.

Race 6

• 8  Liscullan  3-1

• 10  Madeyourpoint  4-1

• 2  He’s One Wild Dude  5-1

• 1  It’s a Given  5-1

Race 7

• 2  Day After Day  5/2  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 3  Even Bette  3-1

• 6  Madame Maybry  4-1

• 9  Moondance Joy  5-1

Day After Day went out on fast fractions, established a clear lead in the stretch and held it all the way to the wire. She ran a field topping figure and as long as she doesn’t bounce she looks strong here. Even Bette won her first time out and comes off a layoff for new trainer David Cannizzo. That puts her in the mix for me.

Race 8

• 7  Roca Rojo  5/2

• 6  Sparkle Factor  3-1

• 4  Katie O.  4-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 2  Angel Vision  5-1

Katie O. might have been a higher pick, but she was the speed on a day that favored front runners and she is moving up in price. But at 10-1 she’ll be overlooked and has real chances. I can’t ignore any Chad Brown horse, and he is dynamite with Euro shippers. Tough race.

Race 9

• 8  North Slope  3-1

• 9  Dream Man  7/2

• 7  Sinatra  4-1

• 5  Coturnix  5-1

Frankly, if I was live in the P4 going into the 9th, I’d prefer having an “ALL” ticket. There was hardly a horse I didn’t consider, including some of the longer prices. This might be reflected in the fact I put a horse that hadn’t been on the turf for a while on top, primarily on the strength of his previous turf races and the fact he was claimed last out by top claiming trainer Danny Gargan. Dream Man and Sinatra are coming out of the same race and finished next to each other. Coturnix may be the speed of the race and his figures suggest he can compete in this group. I’d give him a long look, especially at the odds.

Race 1

• 1  Verve’s Tale  9/5

• 2  Opined  2-1

• 3  Kelsocait  4-1

The good news – she hasn’t been out of the money in five starts. Bad news – she should have won by now. Speed, best figures and a short field makes her the favorite. Opined ran well in her first start. Stetches out today and McLaughlin is 22% with second start maidens. Kelsocait ran well first time on the turf  and has come back with some nice works. Note that she threw in the same 35 second workout before the last race. Breeding suggests distance is not an issue.

Race 2

• 6  Cuckoo’s Saloon  

• 1  Sunny Kitten  

• 9  Dancer’s Edge  

Cuckoo’s Saloon scratched out of the last race yesterday to run in this spot. He should be the one to catch and has the figures to hang on. Sunny Kitten ran an improved race last out in a 4th of June affair that a number of the horses in this race were in. Dancer’s Edge is another horse coming out of the June 4 race. He showed some closing kick in that one and with some improvement he has outs.

Race 3

• 6  Seventhfleethumor  8/5  **HORSE TO WATCH

• 1  Bossmon  3-1

• 4  Recanted  7/2

• 8  Manofmanyvirtues  5-1

Seventhfleethumor was a good 10 lengths out of it at the top of the stretch and closed furiously to only lose by a half length. That was an impressive move and if he gets the right setup he should make it first to the wire this time. Bossmon won his NW2L race in strong fashion, but faltered first time at the NW3 level.  If he can get back to the figure from his winning effort, he’s dangerous here. Recanted makes a significant drop here after almost winning his NW3 race. Last race can be excused given the muddy conditions. Manofmanyvirtues drops to his lowest lifetime level. He’s run with better and could pop a good one today.

Race 4

• 2  True Charm  5/2

• 3  Classy Chris  3-1

• 4  Madison Blues  4-1

• 1  Town Fair/RockAve. Road  5-1

True Charm has been looking to crack the winner’s circle for a while. She has the best figs, but has proven somewhat heartless in the stretch. A very tepid choice. Classy Chris makes only her third start and has been in the money both times. Good chances today. Madison Blues takes the blinkers off after running with them in all but her first start. She’s competitive off her best figure. The entry of Town Fair and Rock Ave. Road both have some potential.

Race 5

• 6  Silent Waters  2-1

• 5  Bust Another  7/2

• 1  Cloud Control  5-1

This race is ultra competitive, with cases to be for most of the runners. Silent Waters comes in off a nice fourth in the Penn Mile and a win in an allowance affair at LRL. Figures put him in the strongest position here. Bust Another just won a state-bred stakes and has five wins in eight lifetime starts. Hasn’t made a turf start yet, but he could be strong at the distance. Interesting contender. Cloud Control looks best poised to pick up the pieces should the speed falter. Much better than his 10-1 odds might indicate, although his win was after a very questionable DQ. By all rights he should still be a maiden. Still, could make the verticals.

Race 6

• 2  Thirst For Glory  3-1

• 4  Testosterstone  7/2

• 1  Taoiseach  7/2

Thirst for Glory has been consistent in his last few and has a field topping last race figure. Gets a nice switch to Rosario. Testosterstone ran with open NW1X allowance runners last out, tracked a quick pace and faded. He’s back with state-breds where he’s run his best races. Taoiseach was unremarkable in the Mike Lee but has been competitive with higher priced state-breds. Dangerous today.

Race 7

• 4  Forever in Love  2-1

• 1  Crescent Street  3-1

• 10  Storm Prophet  3-1

Forever in Love comes off an 8 month layoff for Linda Rice who is a reasonable 16% off the long rest. He has two good turf races, including the G3 Pilgrim as a two year old. His two year old numbers are better than horses that have started at three, so if he is in good condition he should take the field. Crescent Street has had his best races at BEL. His first race of 2016 was against open company and he showed good speed to the stretch. He should show improvement and that makes him a contender. Storm Prophet ran a good second in his 2016 debut and returns today at the same level. Should have a bit more condition for this run.

Race 8

• 1  Portando  5/2

• 2  Swipe  5/2

• 4  Mawthooq  3-1

Portando comes in off a series of good races at CD. He’s got speed and should enjoy the six furlong distance. Swipe has done well graded company, although he faltered in the Lexington. That was his first race of the year and he should make a better accounting today. Mawthooq almost won a NW1X after coming off a year and five month layoff. He’s had five weeks to recover and should be dangerous on the lead.

Race 9

• 5  Naked Empress  7/2

• 1  Libreta  7/2

• 4  Wonderment  4-1

• 10  Louisville First  5-1

Naked Empress failed in her first with winners as the favorite, but still ran an impressive figure. She’ll be good odds today and Johnny V re-takes the mount. Libreta won the NY Stallion in her last start and makes her first attempt on the grass. Turf breeding is ambiguous but no doubt the horse has talent. Wonderment is a G3 winner and may have shown better if not for a bobble at the start of her last.  Another with limited turf experience but plenty of talent. Louisville First is a big longshot on the ML, but his one turf race was a big improvement over his races on the dirt. Could be a big surprise here.

Race 10

• 5  Storm Pursuit  7/2

• 1  Be a Hero  7/2

• 8  Bass River Road  4-1

This race appears to be nothing but speed horses, making it a tough predictive affair.. Storm Pursuit just missed at this level last out and has been ultra-competitive in 2016. Be a Hero drops in price and that should help him carry his speed. Bass River Road was snagged for $25K by Bruce Levine last out and he drops him down to this level looking for a win. Levine is 22% first off the claim. Carmouche jumps back aboard.