NEWMAN is likely to go favorite off the strength of his race against PRACTICAL JOKER, but I’m going to look for a little more value and I would say that is OUTRUN. This second time starter for Todd Pletcher adds blinkers in an effort to focus his speed. Look at the running line where he was shuffled well back in the stretch, losing all chance, but rallying to only lose by 2 1/2 and galloping out strongly. He should be in a much better spot today. He should easily take to the mile distance.
Race 2
8 Gran the Man
1/1A Liberal Spin/Wireless Future
10 Creaky Circuit
Secondary (3, 8)
Race 3
2 Theory
1 Moves Like Ali
4 Reckling
Race 4
6 Southern Gentleman
12 Irish Filibuster
8 Gait to Heaven
Secondary (1, 10, 11)
This is a fairly wide open race. While IRISH FILIBUSTER has the top figures and is dropping from MSW he’s been off since February, which makes him vulnerable. SOUTHERN GENTLEMAN is the interesting horse in this race for me. While he’s been knocking around with MCL for a while, he’s only run two turf races (his last two races) and they were his best two races. In his last he showed good speed despite a troubled start and finished with a lifetime top. That figure makes him competitive with others and at 20-1 odds he could be huge value.
Race 5
10 Mr Curiosity
5 Made of Steel
1 Peculiar Sensation
Secondary (2, 8)
Race 6
5 Hothersal
6 Tombelaine
4 Dowse’s Beach
2 Plainview
Secondary (1, 7, 10)
Lots of competitors in this race, but I like the top two quite a bit. HOTHERSAL looks fairly obvious in here, coming off a series of Graded races. Jason Servis has been having a good BEL meet. The potential value horse is Chad Brown’s TOMBELAINE. In Ireland he was second in two Group races, won a minor stakes, and ran well in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. In his debut race in the states he was pinched back at the start and never really got into the race. Chad Brown is 25% off the long layoff, Castellano takes the mount, and I think we’ll see an improved run today.
Race 7
6 Stonecoldfox
4 Easy Way Out
7 The Eagle is Gone
Secondary (1, 3)
Race 8
4 Ancient Secret
12 She Doesn’t Mind
2 Believe in Bertie
Secondary (3, 7, 8, 9, 11)
I could have made a case for a number of horses in this race. I went with the solid choice, ANCIENT SECRET, winer of the G2 Lake George, and her stablemate SHE DOESN’T MIND, an improving runner for Chad Brown.The interesting horse is BELIEVE IN BERTIE who comes off a strong second place finish at Indiana Grand. Admittedly she is in with a tougher group today, but she had the best pace figure off her last and runs a perfect distance for her speedy running style. Trainer Brad Cox is an amazing 10 of 11 in the money at this BEL meet. At 10-1 morning line she could lead to a very lucrative collection.
This edition of the Frizette is very competitive. While NONNA MELA ran two big races at SAR, I’m looking at second time starter YELLOW AGATE. She has a lot of things in her favor. She beat a pretty good field in breaking her maiden, and got a field topping number as a result. Her breeding suggests she should relish the extra distance. My only concern – if the track plays to speed like it did yesterday, he task will be that much harder.
Race 5
2 Point Piper
7 Tommy Macho
1 Ocean Knight
Secondary (ALL)
This is any horse’s race as you can tell by the morning line odds. I’ll be focusing more on the verticals in this affair.
Race 6
5 Lady Eli
6 Sea Calisi
1 Ame Bleue
Secondary (2, 4)
LADY ELI was the best turf filly in North America last year, but her bout with laminitis left her fighting for her life, much less her career. Well, after over a year layoff she came back in the Ballston Spa, shook off most of the rust and finished a close second. No question she needed that race, and you have to expect a top effort today. She has plenty of good competition in SEA CALISI, winner of the Beverly D at AP, and Andre Fabre shipper AME BLEUE, as well as the horse that beat her upstate, STRIKE CHARMER and the consistent SENTIERO ITALIA.
Race 7
2 Disco Partner
10 Green Mask
5 Pure Sensation
Secondary (3, 6)
Race 8
3 Syndergaard
6 Big Gray Rocket
5 Favorable Outcome
1 Practical Joke
SYNDERGAARD is likely to go favorite in this renewal of the Champagne off his two smashing wins against state-breds. Regardless of the competition in those races, he’s shown more than enough talent to succeed here. But this will be a major test for him. Bob Baffert’s BIG GRAY ROCKET comes in off an equally impressive win in a Del Mar maiden, and is spectacularly bred for the mile. And certainly the Chad Brown duo of FAVORABLE OUTCOME and PRACTICAL JOKE would be no surprise. Whatever you do in this race, demand value.
Race 9
3 American Patriot
1 Camelot Kitten
10 Beach Patrol
7 Monster Bea
Secondary (4, 5, 9)
In a wide open race I’m going to demand odds, and that puts AMERICAN PATRIOT in my crosshairs. Todd Pletcher is not known for his success on the turf, but he’s done well with this runner. Clearly the horse disappointed in his last two starts are LRL and AP. In both races his jockey put him in a box for much of the race, and when it came time to do the real running he started too late. he was making a nice move in the Secretariat, and was trying hard in the Commonwealth. He gets a switch to Mike Smith today, and if Smith learned anything from those last two races, it would be that the horse needs to have a clear lane when it is time to run. I’ll take the chance at the odds.
Race 10
2 Mubtaahij
3 Hopperfunity
6 Effinex
Secondary (1)
MUBTAAHIJ has come back from Dubai and run creditably in his two stateside starts. He lost to EFFINEX in the Suburban, but returned in the Woodward and ran an improved race. Third off the layoff and he should be at the top of his game. He should like the mile and a quarter. I’ll add that HOPPERTUNITY is not without chances here and EFFINEX is still a top quality horse.
