Category Archives: Selections

Daily selections from racetracks around the county

Belmont Late Pick-4 July 3

7 th Race

#2 Distorted Dream is the fastest horse in the race. Unfortunately the 1 for 16 record, no wins on the dirt, no experience on the wet creates concerns. On the other hand he seems to have enough speed to get good position early. #3 Official has good positives. Pace presser, good sustained energy, exceptional wet track breeding, and only six starts with a win and place.. Also fits the conditions perfectly. #5 Pin and Win has lots of outs. Love the last race, consistent pace figures in 2014. At 12-1 he’s on my tickets. #6 Coldwater Flat, #7 Lane Allen and #9 Stowe are low start horses so always worth a look in a NW2.

“A” Horses – 3,5

“B” Horses – 2

“C” Horses – 7,9

Race 8

Looks like a WYSIWYG race to me.  Some combination of #2 Chocolat City, #4 Discreet Force, #6 Ah Gaga.

Race 9

Stays on the yielding turf. #1 Desert Bliss mostly a non-win type but is 13 out of 15 in the money on Belmont Turf. At 10-1 worth a look in the backholes. #2 Strike Accord also seems to prefer finishing 2nd/3rd, but just missed on favored BEL surface in her last. Pace figure puts her in the mix. 3YO #4 Irish Sweepstakes ran a lifetime best when switched to the Belmont turf. Has 2 wins from 6 starts, has turf specialist Jose Lezcano up. #6 Caribean Beat will be coming at the end and has the pace figure to nail the win. Just won on the yielding turf at AQU in April. #7 Miz Orwell is a solid state-bred that also has a nice closing kick.

“A” Horses – 4,6,7

“B” Horses – 2

“C” Horses 1,8

Race 10

If it stays on the turf, 11 are scheduled to go to the post. Of the horses that have started, #4 Skipping looks very tough. Has the speed and shouldn’t have any problems on the turf.  Clement’s go-to turf guy Irad Ortiz rides. Other experienced runners #9 Orient Harbor and #12 Illapa certainly could have a say in the outcome. None of the first timers seems to have caught the interest of the line-maker, but that doesn’t mean they are outless. Ignore the other Clement runner #11 Miadora with turf jockey par excellence Castellano aboard at your own peril.

“A” Horses – 4,9,12

“B” Horses – 11

“C” Horses – 10

Late Pick-4 Belmont June 29

Every time I think the pick-4 is an indecipherable mess, the longest price in the sequence is 3-1. At first glance this looks like a pick-4 with plenty of upset possibilities, but here goes.

RACE 6

In my opinion, there is no stickout in the 6th. #2 Sacred Ground is listed as the morning line favorite off a 42 day rest and a drop to the lowest claiming level he’s seen since January 2013. Sacred Ground is a 7 year-old horse who has been a steady earner in the low claiming ranks. He is placed correctly in this race and the distance should be no issue, but he may lack enough pace to run at. He certainly has a chance but I wouldn’t make him better than a 20% probability.

#6 Seeker should be the speed here. There is no reason why the five year-old gelding shouldn’t be able to establish his own fractions and hang on in the stretch. He won a $20,000 claiming mile race on May 23 in front running style, came back on the turf, and is back on his favored dirt surface today.

The #4 No Brakes had zero wins from 13 starts in 2013, but already has two wins this year, albeit at Charles Town and Pimlico. The hard-knocking nine year-old gelding wouldn’t be a complete surprise.

“A” Horses -2, 6

“B” Horse – 4

Race 7

This race is another tricky event. In the nine horse field there are only a couple of horses I don’t think have a chance of crossing under the wire first.

#5 The Brothers War shipped over from Europe in 2013 and finished third in a turf sprint at Saratoga. The well-bred son of War Front clunked in a minor stakes sprint at GP and faded to third after setting the pace in a 7-furlong OC turf sprint in his last. He looked like he needed the conditioning, but could get seriously compromised if he tries to stay with some of the other speed in the race.  Still, at 6-1 he could make the pick-4.

#1 Hear the Footsteps is at his correct level today and should find the distance to his liking. His closing style shouldn’t hurt him in this field. #3 Morpheus, half-brother to the great Frankel, is another shipper from Europe making his third start in the States. The 4 year-old still looks like he has some improve left in him, and wouldn’t be a total surprise. #4 Marriedtothemusic has the best figure in the race but has never started on the turf. He is another with early speed and could wind up setting the race up for a closer. #9 Spring Sky as only won once in his last 13 starts, but did just miss at today’s class and distance on May 16. He is another one who looks like he wants to prompt the pace.

# 2 Honorable Dylan get a look simply because he is at the right level, and he raced well in his turf sprint debut on May 16. Perhaps today he turns the tables on Hear the Foorsteps and Spring to the Sky.

“A” Horse – 5

“B” Horses – 1,3,4,9

“C” Horse – 2

Race 8

This race is super-competitive and even the longest shot on the morning line, West Coast Chick wouldn’t be a total shock. Five of the seven starters appear to be front-running types, and the other two are more pressers than closers. Only one of the starters has ever won a Graded stakes, Miss Behaviour.

#3 Milam is the morning line favorite, and although her pace figures put her near the bottom of the field, she may have an advantage because of her running style. She comes out after finishing a close second in the 8 Belles on Derby Day. The winner of that race, Fiftyshadesofgold, is multiple stakes-placed and would be 5 for 7 if not for some horse called Untapable. #2 Miss Behaviour comes off a front-running victory in the Ms Preakness and seems to be able to run without keeping her nose in front of a field. Todd Pletcher’s #6 Red Velvet wired a short stakes field in her last and has every right to keep improving.

#1 Isabelle has yet to face open competition, but was impressive in winning a state-bred stakes last out. #4 Street Story has to be considered because if the front runners falter she is most likely to pick up the pieces.

“A” Horses – 2,3,6

“B” Horses – 1,4

“C” Horses – 5,7

Race 9

The nightcap is one of those typical NY state-bred maiden races on the turf where horses either look possible or horrible, but nobody sticks out.

I’m going to look for horses who don’t have many starts, but have at least shown some potential. My choices are the #8 Zafiro Azul and #10 Josie’s Prospect. Both ran competitive figures in the same race on June 12, Josie’s Prospect on the front and Zafiro Azul making an impressive closing run. Of the two other horses coming out of that race, #2 Nanoon was strangled in the early going and had nothing left for a stretch drive, and #5 Sweetest Peach showed nothing at all.

#7 Transplendid was approaching professional maiden status when she fell and was vanned off in her last start of 2013. If she returns to her best form she has a chance to finish in front. Lil’ Zilla is also returning off a nine month plus layoff with a new trainer in tow. She is dropping from straight state-bred maidens, should have no problem with the distance and has a better pace figure as a two year-old than any other horse has as a three year-old. At 6-1 it is tough to ignore her.

“A” Horses – 8,10

“B” Horses – 7,9

“C” Horse – 2

Belmont Early Pick-4 Saturday June 28

With Untapable looking like a a very short-priced single in the fourth race, the question is whether we can come up with some price horses in the other three events to make the investment worthwhile.

The second race is a bottom level maiden claiming dirt sprint where five of the nine runners are NY breds and there are two first timers. I feel fairly confident pitching Naughty Matilda, Chichita,  and Desert Valentine.

#9 Tordita is almost certainly going to be the post-time favorite. She seems more suited to the dirt than turf or synthetic, the combination of trainer Bruce  Brown and jockey Javier Castellano is hitting at a 30% rate, and her figures are tops in this field.

#7 Moon Map has done her best running on a fast dirt track, and has figures slightly below Tordita. She should be one of the runners coming at the end.

#1 Discreet Malena is the interesting horse. I don’t think she’ll go off at 10-1, but she does seem to be racing into shape. She had two total clunkers on the turf in 2013, but came out on the dirt in 2014, showed some front in her first start and held her speed well in her next start, beating #2 Hot On Ice in the process. If she’s rounding into the top of her form she may just wire this cheap field.

“A” Horse – #9 Tordita

“B” Horses – #1 Discreet Malena, #7 Moon Map

“C” Horses – #2 Not On Ice, #5 Home to Carrowkeel, #6 Untiltherewasyou

The third race is one of those open $40,000 claiming toughies at 6 furlongs on the turf. Eight runners are scheduled to start, and I’m not sure anyone is completely outless. #1 Chelsea Road is listed as the 2-1 favorite, but I’m going to give the nod to #4 Harbingerofthings. The 5YO mare is well suited to the turf and in 2013 was a steady earner with 6 of 11 in the money. Her last two races showed approaching condition, even though she was racing on a muddy Pimlico surface and the synthetic at Presque Isle.  I think today she is back on form and I’m expecting Michael Trombetta to have her wound up and ready to run.

There is not a lot of pure speed in the race.  #2 Kilknockagain and #3 Starship Gambler will probably inherit the front, with the rest of the field following in close order. It should be a wild finish and I’d just be guessing if I offered a cold trifecta.

“A” Horse – #4 Harbinger of Things

“B” Horses – #2 Kilknockagain, #1 Chelsea Road

“C” Horses – the remainder of the field

The last leg of the early Pick-4 is a $40,000 Maiden Claiming event for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. It is another mess of a race, and a case can be made for a number of runners. #5 Winner’s Legacy is listed as the morning line favorite. She has the past performance of a horse with physical issues,  and her last three races appear uninspiring at best. I’m going elsewhere for this race.

In this sort of race I look for horses that have a small number of starts and something positive going for them. The closest prospect is the #1 Acrostic. In May 2013 Acrostic gave a bang-up effort in a $65K maiden claimer, and then spent a year on the sidelines. She returned a month ago in a six furlong sprint, breaking slowly but making an encouraging five-wide move around the turn and finishing with decent energy. Acrostic’s chances may depend on the break, but if she  establishes a good tracking spot going into the first turn, she has every right to wind up a winner.

#2 Lifeguard on Duty also has the pattern, although she seems a step behind Acrostic. She ran a good race in her last run of 2013 at Laurel, and Anthony Dutrow is a high percentage trainer who does well with horses coming off long layoffs.

#8 Shaikha and #4 Kevin’s Kool Kat both have the look of professional maidens. Too many starts, and a high percentage of second place finishes, although Shaikha clearly has the best numbers of the field.

None of the remaining runners has much to recommend.

“A” Horses – #1 Acrostic, #2 Lifeguard on Duty

“B” Horse – # 8 Sheikha

“C” Horses – #5 Winner’s Legacy, #4 Kevin’s Kool Kat

Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont

Six horses are scheduled to contest the 2014 renewal of the Mother Goose Stakes this Saturday at Belmont. The overwhelming and deserving favorite in this field of six is the Steve Asmussen trained Untapable, listed at 1-5 on the morning line. 1-5 translates into an 83% chance of winning. If you are intrigued enough by the other horses to take a stand against Untapable, you are assured of a decent return for an upset. The problem is, nobody seems to be in Untapable’s current league.

Untapable made an auspicious debut at Churchill Downs last June as the 2.40-1 second choice, comfortably winning a 5.5 furlong race. She wheeled back two and a half months later, taking the Grade 2 Pocahontas. She followed that with a disaster in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies, and finished 2013 with a rather dull effort in the Hollywood Starlet.

What a difference 2014 brought. Untapable has won three consecutive Graded stakes, the last win coming at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Oaks. Nobody has been closer than four and a half lengths at the wire. Untapable should be fully primed on Saturday. She is a versatile runner and has shown the ability to press or track and leave a field in her wake.

Are there any negatives? Not many. Rosie Napravnik, Untapable’s regular rider, is out with a shoulder injury and has been replaced by the very capable Johhny Velasquez. She has never raced on the Belmont surface, and it is occasionally the case that a horse will find the Big Sandy less to their liking.

So if you want to play the race, what do you do? There is no show betting, but I don’t think the bridge jumpers will have any hesitation about slamming Untapable in the place pool.  That leaves a few combination bets – the exacta, trifecta, pick-3 and early pick-4. In an article I wrote for Horseplayer Magazine, I mentioned that if you can turn a 1-5 shot into an 8-5 or higher shot by playing a cold exacta, or an even longer shot by playing a cold trifecta, it’s worth taking a plunge.

So who would you put on the bottom of an exacta or trifecta with Untapable? Let’s go through the other runners. House Rules needed four tries to break her maiden, but then finished second in a pair of Grade 2 races at Gulfstream, finishing ahead of other runners America and Stopchargingmaria in the process. However, she showed  very little in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont. Her closing style may work in her favor but given she’ll likely be bet a little, I’m going to look elsewhere.

Princess Violet is a lightly raced New York state-bred with three sprint races under her belt. She should bolt to the front, but otherwise I’m not really finding a reason to consider her in the back hole.

America is still eligible for a NW2 race and has been beaten by both Stopchargingmaria and House Rules. I can’t see why the tables might turn on Saturday.

Stopchargingmaria is a solid Grade 2 horse and her win in the Black-Eyed Susan showed a lot of growth. She raced as a two-year old at Belmont, finishing a respectable third in the Frizette, so I don’t think the track will be a problem. You can’t ignore the Pletcher-Castellano combination. They consistently hit at 30% or greater in stakes races. She seems fairly clear as the second best runner, but it’s hard to imagine more than a $4 exacta with Untapable on top. Still, it’s a long way better than 1-5.

The horse that intrigues me is Aqua Regia, and if Princess Violet wasn’t in the race I’d be inclined to really hit the Untapable-Aqua Regia exacta. She just won her NW1X race at Belmont, pressing from the second spot and finishing well. She has plenty of tactical speed, but doesn’t seem to be a “need to lead” type. If she doesn’t let Princess Violet burn her out early, she may have a couple of lengths on everyone but Untapable turning for home, and have enough heart to hang on to the place. She has the feel of one of those horses that still has a lot of room for improvement, and fits a pattern that has historically been successful at Belmont. Plus, she is likely to go off somewhere near her 20-1 morning line.

I don’t think there are a lot of decisions in here. If Untapable runs her race, everyone else is competing for second, and the Untapable-Stopchargingmaria exacta will probably pay a miniscule price. Unless something intervenes, I’m inclined to try to make money by betting a straight Untapable-Aqua Regia exacta.

I’ll blog tomorrow about the pick-3 and pick-4 prospects.