Someone said today’s pick-4 was tough. They underspoke. It is impossible. There are only 10,000 different combinations and it might not be a bad day to box the board.
- Treaty Royal is an 8 start maiden with 5 in-the-money finishes. She is one of the many horses dropping from MSW. She will be part of the early pace picture, and based on her pace figures she looks to be competitive.
- Galroyale is making her third start. She seems to prefer coming from well off the pace, although given her start problems last out we can’t be sure. She actually ran a better than looked last out, losing all chance at the break and going wide around the turn. She certainly has outs.
- It’s Macaroni in another one dropping into MdnCl. Jason Servis and Irad Ortiz are 33% at SAR and she puts the blinkers on.Your guess is as good as mine if this makes a difference.
- Arch Tiger is shipping from the always dangerous Jonathan Sheppard and is also dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. She has 2 seconds and a third in three lifetime starts. Sheppard is always dangerous at the Spa.
- Silverama almost won a $40000 MdnCl at Belmont in May and was taken out of that race by Leah Gyarmanti. Her return in a MSW was poor, but if she runs back to the May 15 race she is a contender.
- Time for Harlan is another horse getting better. In his last he took the lead in the stretch before getting passed by two horses. You can’t just throw him out either.
- All Star Kitten is scratched.
- Winner’s Legacy is an 8 start maiden and the drop to MdnCl did wonders for her last time. She is another closer and may get shut out of position, but her times are fast enough for her to qualify
- Lateen has no turf starts. I’m going to step out and pitch her.
- Beauty Surprise is a Clement runner with plenty of early foot. She’s been a little faint hearted in the stretch, but could wire the field. Clement takes the blinkers off, and perhaps that will allow the horse to relax. Definitely a contender.
- One More Song is a firster for Clement. I’d watch the board on this one.
- Late Night Artist is another early speed sort with very fast figures. Dale Romans ships her in from CD and drops her into her first MdnCl. Another who would be no surprise.
So that is the first leg. Maybe two confident eliminations in a 12-horse field. If I’m pressed, I’ll go short with 4, 5, 7, 10, 12
The only thing easier about Race 8 is that there are two fewer horses.
- Go Appeal is looking for three in a row. Eddie Kenneally claimed the horse for $50K last out, and drops him the $25K off a win. I think the drop is negative, but he’s still fast enough to win this.
- Haverhill doesn’t do much for me. Perhaps an in-the-money horse.
- Bernie the Maestro is another dropping 50% in claiming price. He’s an older gelding and I think his positives aren’t that impressive.
- Street Shark was claimed last out by the sly Gary Contessa. He brings the horse back in a little over a month at the same price. Another one who wouldn’t be a shock, but if you have to start drawing lines, I think he is one of the horses that goes.
- Shankapotamus is a hard-knocking claimer who just won last out for $12500. He has a couple of wins on the Saratoga main and is 5 for 5 in the money. Jeremiah Englehart is a high percentage trainer who does reasonably well first off the claim. His pace figure is good but he may be pushed at the front. Still, a major player.
- Christopher’s Joy ships in from Finger Lakes and although he looks competitive, I just don’t like the FL to SAR angle. At six furlongs he’d be a must use. At seven I am wary.
- Bemata is a Chad Brown trainee dropping to his lowest level since last September. He’ll be bet and deservedly so.
- Photon is scratched
- Real Estate Rich has been over his head lately but has been reasonably competitive.
- Love to Run is scratched
My short list of contenders is 1, 5, 7
The featured Grade 2 Lake George is just like the real Lake George – deep, although in this case short.
- Daring Kathy is 4 for 5 lifetime but looks a bit outclassed here.
- Daring Dancer never got involved in the Wonder Again but was flattered when the first two finishers in that race finished 1-2 in the Belmont Oaks. You simply can’t leave her out.
- Duff One doesn’t seem like a graded horse.
- Sweet Acclaim is an Irish-bred with a second to Daring Dancer and two other close finishes.
- Speed Seeker could be any kind, but she won’t get my money this time.
- Little Journey is making he third start in America for Chad Brown, and you leave this horse out at your own peril.
- A Little Bit Sassy is definitely a contender, although Saez showed last time why he has trouble getting top mounts. I’d really like this horse if someone told me Saez was sure to get the most out of her.
The picks are 2, 5, 6, 7
If you are live going into the finale I hope you have an all.
- All Mine Tonight doesn’t look like a contender to me.
- Royal Jest has that negative pattern for me of 7 starts with 4 seconds. She did break her maiden last out so may have figured it out.
- Saucon Valley didn’t have the best of trips last time but still only lost by 2 1/4.
- Kimmie’s Lucky Star is just one of the many horses in this race that could vie for the backholes, but I don’t think she is a win prospect.
- The Lost Tigress tries the turf for the first time and has enough speed to be in the mix.
- Summerdale showed a lot first on the turf last out and she definitely makes the contenders list.
- Courageous Kitten took 12 starts to break her maiden and ran a decent race in her first with winners. She’s been off since October so I think I might give her a race or two.
- Hot Squeeze is a speedball with a win over the Saratoga turf. Speed is ever dangerous so she is a contender.
- Official is another one that has enough positives that she wouldn’t be a surprise. She goes into the “use” bucket, but I’m not enthused about her chances.
- Maggiesfreudnslip looks up against it.
- Mighty Reward is 0 for 3 at Saratoga on the turf. Her latest win was against $20000 claimers last October. Not impossible, but if you have to make a cut I think she goes by the wayside.
- White Crane is a professional NW1X runner and while she is a must use in the tri/super, I can’t put her in the win slot.
So the contenders are 3, 5, 6, 8, 9
If you used everyone I mentioned, it would be 5X3X4X5 for a total of $150 in 50 cent pick-4’s. That is a lot to spend for not having brimming confidence.