It’s another interesting  all turf late pick-4 but with no marathon race. Nothing is more irritating than handicapping a race and realizing five minutes before post time you totally missed a contender. We’ll try not to miss  anything today.

RACE 7

• 6 Fire Ship is a 10-start maiden with a start over the Saratoga turf. Her last was a troubled trip, but her penultimate start makes her competitive.
• 7 Tenacious Indeed is another with a start over the track. With only three starts she is eligible to improve, although her best to this point looks a little too slow. She adds blinkers and we’ll see if that adds focus. By way of default, she inherits the top choice after the scratch of the 4.
• 9 Make Your Point is well on the way to professional maidenhood.  She is one of the horses coming out of the July 21 race won by Under Scrutiny. She tracked all the way around and there is every reason to see the same today.
• 10 Kevin’s Steel on the other hand is about fully established in the professional maiden ranks. She could merry-go-round her way to another in the money finish, but she’s more likely to be 0 for 14 at the end of the race.

RACE 8

• 3 Santa Elf has two wins in a row on the dirt, and only one turf start. Bruce Brown claimed him last out and Brown has not been strong off the claim. He’s not without a chance, but not the top choice.
• 4 Defiant exploded on the Monmouth turf last out but generally conditioned claimers making a jump up to NW1X are not reliable. He’s got plenty of speed and that is dangerous.
• 5 Heart Doctor will get a lot of action and is hard working, but he is another that can’t seem to make the jump to NW1X. I’m making him a bet against.
• 6 Golden Story is another speedy sort. He only has 5 starts and is eligible to improve, but I’d be more excited if his last was at this level instead of OC25K.
• 7 Otokogi is making his turf debut off a nice run at Keeneland last April. If he wasn’t trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Johnny V I doubt I’d give him a second look, but Motion has been on fire.
• 8 Indian Rain Dance is the top choice. He ran a bang-up race first on the turf and if he repeats it he gets the win.

RACE 9

• 1 Ghurair is another horse coming out of the United Nations. He’s obviously a step below graded stakes, but fits well at this level. Definite contender
• 3 Red Rifle is a speedy sort and lately the turf has been playing to closers. If the race was a mile I’d be far more excited since he seems to be far and away the best speed. He has great figures an is at the right class level. Pletcher and Velasquez make him necessary to consider.
• 5 Lochte will be the top pick. He is a horse that likes winning and has actually won a Grade 1. He has a third on the Saratoga turf. His low profile connections will keep him from getting bet heavily.
• 7 Tetradrachm hasn’t been this low in a while. He’s been running nothing but graded stakes, and that seems to have kept him from the winner’s circle. I think this is a shrewd drop. He has a win on the SAR lawn. My close second choice.
• 9 Reflecting is another that has been suffering at higher classes. He seems to prefer going longer so he may be a few strides late, especially given there is not much speed to run at. He has taken the lead in longer races but he is not going to outgun Red Rifle. His figures say competitive.

RACE 10

• 3 Jennys Creek. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. 0 for 17 maidens are more likely to be 0 for 18 than 1 for 18. I don’t care how bad the field looks. She is only a potential in the money horse for me.
• 5 Barrier to Entry is the top choice. She was getting killed on the dirt, switched to the turf and took the lead, finishing only 6.5 lengths behind. She looks a lot like a Condition Sign horse and her last race figure is plenty competitive with these.
• 9 Given Fire was right there in her last at the 6F call. She’s been off since September but has been working steadily for this year’s debut. I’d like her a lot more if she had a short speed workout, but if Maggie says she looks fabulous, she’s worth a bet.
• 10 Gu Gu Beans owes me money. I bet her very heavily last time out at 7-1. Her neck defeat cost me the pick-4 as well. But, to be a successful horseplayer you can’t take these things personally. She gets another chance today.
• 11 Home to Carrowkeel had a miserable trip the last time but managed to close a lot of lengths in the stretch. She could be the best in here. It doesn’t hurt that the red hot Michelle Nevin trains. No surprise if she improves substantially.

It isn’t that the pick-4 is outrageously unpredictable. It is more that each race seems to be divided into potential winners and very unlikely winners.

RACE 7

• 1 Precarious was obviously over her head in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly stakes at Woodbine. She has consistent figures, but doesn’t seem to be more than an allowance runner on her best day. She has some negatives with regard to her willingness to hold a lead in the stretch. She has two unspectacular races on the Saratoga turf. She’s a contender but not rock solid.
• 3 Lawn Party is one of the low start horses with plenty of upside. Todd Pletcher trains the 3YO. She finished behind the talented Sea Queen and Minorette in the Wonder Again and came back to run a nice race in her first start against older horses. She’s had a couple of maintenace workouts and gets the services of Johnny V. Solid contender and the top choice today.
• 4 Satisfaction seems a step or two slower that the other runners. She put blinkers on for her last run  and still ran evenly around the track. She shows an early/pressing style, although her interior fractions have not been impressive. She’s been rested for three months and shows a bullet work in her last. She has room to improve but needs to show a bit more today.
• 7 More Than Less came from the clouds to nail her maiden at Churchill.  The fact that Steve Assmussen trains is a positive, but given the lack of high early speed, if she employs the same tactics today she may not be able to run by the field in the stretch.
• 11 Kitten’s Queen has been at this condition for a while. Castellano stays aboard and this is the third start off the bench this year. Michael Maker has had two starts to get her to the winner’s circle and is running out of time to vindicate his training efforts. Three starts on the SAR lawn have resulted in one 2nd place finish. Could win off her best, but starting to look like a career also ran.

RACE 8

• 1 Middleburg has been competitive at this level for a while . She has  pace figures that put her right in the mix in this race.
• 3 Casino Dan has a race over the SAR turf the same day as Joe’s Blazing Aaron. The later ran two seconds faster at the 3/4 and the mile, so Casino Dan did not have a lot of pace to run at. The pace should be faster today and that can only benefit Casino Dan.
• 4 Joe’s Blazing Aaron was just claimed last out by Gary Contessa and he wheels the horse right back for a slightly higher price. He wired fields in his last two starts  and seems best suited for the mile distance, but there is enough speed in this race to make it problematic for him to settle comfortably in front. If Silver Streak scratches, he becomes much more dangerous.
• 5 Battle Force has some impressive back class. He is graded stakes placed and has a useful comeback race on July 19 where is broke a little tardy but closed some into a moderate pace.  Shirreffs is not impressive second of a layoff, but I’m not letting that stop me. Top choice.
• 6 Upgrade is a hard knocker who fits well with this group. Chad Brown is having his usual quality meet and Upgrade is one of the many contenders.  He has two starts on the SAR turf with no in the money finishes

RACE 9

• 3 Bohemian Dance should have no trouble with the distance. She won an optional claimer first out in the states, and came back at Delaware in a stakes that was taken off the turf. While she is a filly going against the boys, she’s had success against males previously. She is a legitimate longshot play.
• 5 Micromanage is one of the two Pletcher trainees. He has graded stakes experience but no races on the turf. He may be one Pletcher is keeping in the race in the event of rain.
• 8 Winning Cause has raced almost nothing but graded stakes, and if you read my article on turf racing, you know I believe legitimate graded horses beat non graded horses. Pletcher and Velasquez team up for the try and despite the fact he hasn’t been to the winner’s circle in a year, I’ll make him the top choice.
• 9 Grand Rapport has looked great in his turf races and has a race over the SAR turf already this year. In fact he has a win and two seconds at SAR. Another horse at odds with a legitimate chance.

RACE 10

• 3 Island Therapy is a 9 start maiden who is developing the look of a professional in the money runner. Given he only has two turf starts, with one at SAR, I think he can be given one more shot. He certainly has the numbers to compete in this field.
• 6 Blue Chips Only  is bound to be the controlling speed. Athough he doesn’t have any turf experience, he may take the lead and forget to stop. He is dropping from straight maidens and adds blinkers for this trip. A very interesting price horse.
• 9 Copper Core puts blinkers on for small stable trainer Thomas Morley.  He does have a 20% winning rate and Copper Core just missed at this class in his last two. Top choice.

Well I’m back and I’m mighty irritated that I missed the late pick 4 at Saratoga. It turns out that Bet America doesn’t take action from NJ, so my option was TwinSpires, which I had been boycotting in support of the Players Boycott. Anyway, I stuck to my guns, missed a nice payoff and for the rest of the week it is either the OTB or Monmouth.

RACE 6

This is state-bred stakes at a mile on the inner turf. It is a very competitive field, mostly because none of the runners really stands out.

• 2 Takeoff Your Hat has been off since May 19 and only has one workout for his return. On her best day she is very competitive with horses of this ilk, but the time off with no work is concerning and Phil Serpe is not well known as a layoff trainer. I think you have to throw her on your tickets, but definitely an ambiguous play.
• 3 Funky Munky Fever finished between Old Harbor and Lady Kreesa and came back to finish 4th in a $50K starter allowance. She comes from well back and is another one that would have to run a career race to win.
• 5 Lady Kreesa is a lightly raced filly that is very eligible to improve. She adds blinkers today, although running toward the front hasn’t been a problem. She has worked steadily since her last and Johnny V stays aboard. Top choice.
• 6 Old Harbor is likely to go off the favorite. She has a win over the SAR turf and has been competitive in most of her races. No surprise if she wins.

RACE 7

This is one of those races where no horse sticks out, so I generally look for horses that haven’t proven themselves to be professional losers or who have something positive to recommend.

• 9 Thundering Gale is listed as the favorite and probably has the best combination of speed and closing ability. She’s run well fresh in the past and since being claimed by Chad Brown has been working regularly. I think Brown has a plan with Thundering Gale and it starts today with a win in a cheap NW2 claiming race. She is the top choice.
• 7 Scribbling Sarah is the other X factor. She broke her maiden at SAR at today’s distance. She looked overmatched trying longer distances and was dropped to a $30K claimer in November where she was grabbed by Linda Rice. Rice gave her plenty of time off and she has three unspectacular workouts for her return, but I believe she was looking for a soft spot like this. She’ll likely come from off the pace, and if Cornelio Velasquez times it right she’ll have a chance to have her picture taken.

RACE 8

It’s another ambiguous race, meaning there are a number of horses that you could make a case for. I’m going to settle on three.

• 4 Vicki’s Dancer has been best on the turf and has a competitive pace figure. She lost to Double the Energy at 7F but has the look of a runner that will enjoy the extra furlong. She has been working steadily since that last run and retains the services of Joel Rosario. She’ll be the top choice.
• 5 Double the Energy has also been off since June 15, but only has one workout since. She has plenty of speed and Cornelio Velasquez may be able to nurse it to the wire.
• 2 Unbelievable Dream is 3 for 7 at a mile on the turf. Like many of the others in this race she is coming out of the state-bred allowance race at 7F on June 15. She had to wait to make her move in the stretch in that race and still only lost by half a length. She’s had a little bit of trouble getting to the winner’s circle, but if she sustains her move she may just be first to the wire.

RACE 9

• 4 Cast a Doubt has a pressing style and gets the services of Johnny V. He’s been consistent and seems ready to get back to his winning ways. Velasquez and trainer Bruce Levine have done well in the past but lately have not been a potent combination.  Even so, in this field if he runs his best he will win. Top choice.
• 5 B Shanny is two for three at SAR. He had raced with much better horses in 2013  but in 2014 has been tumbling down the claiming ladder. Low profile trainer Assaf Ronen claimed the horse last out and his 1 for 10 record first off the claim  is not inspiring, but the short time off could get the horse back to form.
• 11 Sense of Peace should be the controlling speed and is two for three this year. He is taking a slight drop in class, but $35K NW3 down to $20K open is not a precipitous drop. He is wearing a bar shoe, but he has run ok with a bar shoe previously. If he gets out well he could be hard to catch.
• 9 Reserved Quality has had a busy 2014 with 10 starts, but he has been successful with better. He picks of the services of Corey Lanerie who really has looked a cut below the regular SAR riders, but is still a quality jockey. He’s one of the horses who should have a good position turning for home and could close for a piece.

This seems like a silly exercise. On  really big race days, the pundits absolutely drown you in race analysis. So I’ve decided to handicap the handicappers.

RACE 8

There is mostly agreement on this race. Three horses get picked on top – 1 Palace , 7 Vyjack and 5 Happy My Way. 8 Bakken also gets a lot of suport. Finally there is one sneaky pick for 2 Falling Sky. Palace looks very strong. He’s 10 for 10 in the money at 6F. Falling Sky really has the look of a horse that should have been sprinting all along. He seemed to be a “need to lead” type but in his last he tracked and finished well for the win. I actually think that at 6F he may run his best race. Happy My Way has shown nothing but speed in his last three starts and has won convincingly. He’ll have much more to contend with up front today. Bakken has only started four times but he has definitely impressed. He finished a close second to Palace last out. He wouldn’t be a shock. Vyjack has one win since his Jan 2013 win in the Jerome and that was for $100K OC. So some really strong thoughts on 1 and 5, some hopeful thoughts on 2, 7, and 8.

RACE 9

Nobody seems really sure here.  3 Sweet Whiskey, 5 Southern Honey, 6 Street Story, 7 Sweet Reason, and 9 Tea Time. Even the 10 Red Velvet and 11 Bird Maker have cropped up. Sweet Reason is the ML favorite, and in my world whenever I think a race is chaos, you can count on the favorite winning. Looks like an all race.

Well Thursday’s first race had gone off when the skies opened up and I mean buckets came down for 20 minutes or so. By the time the storm passed they had knocked all the remaining turf races off the turf. Of course an hour later the sun came out and the day turned glorious. I have a feeling part of the reason the races went off the turf is because they couldn’t afford to chew up the course with Whitney weekend coming up. Anyway, it made the late pick-4 a lot less handicapable and I wasn’t in a position to change my blog selections. I’m not sure i would have had any of the race winners.

I expect the turf races will be back on Friday, and the main track will probably start out as good.

RACE 7

This 5 1/2F sprint on the turf looks very formful.

• 7 Soul House seems best at the sprint distance. There really isn’t a meaningful class drop – $40000NW2L is not a lot different than statebred NW1X. The down side – he doesn’t look like a horse that digs in in the stretch.
• 8 Shore Runner is taking a class drop from his last, but seems to finish second or third in starter alw, claiming NW2L and Alw NW1X. He has a great number and if you believe he will show a little more heart is the fastest. But….
• 10 Lunar Tales is the sort of horse I really gravitate toward in these sort of races. He has a nice 5F race third back, broke his maiden at a mile two back, and lost in his NW1X but was flattered when the winner of that race won a $62K OC. Fast enough and should show good stretch courage. Top pick.
• 12 Pirate’s Pleasure was just claimed at this level by Michelle Nevin who is 28% 1st off the claim. The down side – he’s had plenty of chances to make it to the winner’s circle for the second time. Love the last 3F work. If you believe Nevin makes the difference, he could steal the race.

RACE 8

This mile and a sixteenth affair is filled with ambiguous horses. 2 Call Wil has some talent, but struggled at the $25K OC level. 3 Smokey Brown has a burgeoning case of seconditis. 5 Permanent Campaign needed 7 races to break his maiden but only finished a half length behind Smokey Brown in his last. 7 Jigsaw just broke his maiden for a $40K tag and takes a jump up in his first with winners. 9 Old Upstart fits the class, has plenty of speed, but hasn’t been on the turf. All these horses could be contenders.

• 6 Aripeka has four starts with three in the money finishes. He’s been off since December but his 3YO figures are competitive with this group. If Maggie W gives him a nod I’d see him as the top choice.
• 11 Arch Avenger is another 1st off the claim for Michelle Nevin. Obviously he was well thought of at one time. He was a $425K yearling purchase and was given to Todd Pletcher who raced him four times and then pretty much gave up when he entered him in a MC $20K. He won that race by 10 lengths, came back at a $40K NW2 and just missed. He’ll have to overcome the outside post, but he has enough speed to get a good position. I think he’s worth a long look.

RACE 9

This is another dart board race.  I’m going to look for a horse that has some consistency in restricted stakes

• 3 Free as a Bird seems to have bloomed in her 2014 starts, not finishing worse than second. She’s also listed at 5-2, and I think would be slightly underlayed at that price. She has a nice second on the SAR turf at a mile. Top choice.
• 5 Munnings Sister is the fastest horse in the race and has consistently tried Grade 2 and 3 races, although with only mild success. If you read my blog on turf racing, you’d know that I think turf breeding is irrelevant at short distances if a horse shows good speed on the dirt.  At 5-1 she’s worth a good look.
• 6 Jewel of the Cat is another one who is a restricted stakes specialist in turf sprints. She has a win at SAR at today’s distance. She should be in the mix.
• 10 Madame Guy is a fast turf sprinter and just won an open 5F stakes. She looks like more the sustained run type and from the outside post might have some issues getting a good spot turning for home. Probably most likely to hit one of the back holes.

RACE 10

I’ll be consistent. Horses like 3 All Cash are mostly sucker bets. No matter how fast they look, they just don’t seem to want to pass all the horses. In his last three races he hasn’t gone off above 7-2. He eats money.

• 4 Morse is listed at 20-1 and has as good a chance as any horse. He was just claimed by anonymous (at SAR) trainer David Cannizzo who is 2 for 3 at Saratoga. He’s shown good speed at this level and only lost to Dividend (6-1) by half a length. Why not? I’ll make him the top choice.
• 7 Dividend fits the class, was just claimed by John Terranova and Irad Ortiz stays aboard. He’s certainly eligible to improve enough to win the race.
• 8 Deimos dropped into a MC and seemed to wake up. His figures make him competitive.
• 9 All My Tails is dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time. Johnny V stays for low profile but competent trainer Michael Dilger. You simply have to use horses that are first time MC, especially with only three starts. I think this looks more like the trainer is being realistic as opposed to desperate.
• 11 C’S Smart Strike puts blinkers on . His last race was slow at the  beginning but sped up nicely. In a race with a few contenders, he’s one of the horses that figures to have a chance. The outside post doesn’t help, but perhaps the blinkers will encourage him to get a good striking position early.

Update: Total bonehead in the blog. By the time I got to the 7th race the drumbeats for Ear D’Rhythm were pounding in my ear and I realized I had wrongly overlooked the horse. Worse, it seemed like everyone knew it because she dropped from 6-1 at the opening to 5-2. Big apologies to anyone who read the blog. I hope you figured out the 4 anyway. Otherwise it was a pretty easy pick-4. La Madrina was a clear winner in the 8th.  Stars Above Me exploded through the stretch to take the 9th. Candir won the 10th at almost 9-2 and Uptown Joe completed a $76 exacta so there was some consolation to the day. I made a lot more in the 10th race  than I would have betting a 50 cent pick-4.

The main track looked like it was back to fast, and the forecast is for cooler temperatures with a possibility of a scattered shower. That means if it rains, it will be directly over the track. Three of the last four races are on the turf, and if they decide to run on the lawn it should still be soft or yielding. I’m going to handicap for on the turf. I’ll admit that when races go off the turf I lose my enthusiasm.

It’s Wednesday which means today’s stakes race is a 5 1/2 furlong affair on the turf.

RACE 7

There is not really a stickout in this race, which usually means either the crowd favorite wins or a bomber comes in.

• 2 Casey Roo is one of the contenders. She has two decent races on the turf and was claimed out of her last by Richard Schosberg. Schosberg is not known as a miracle worker when it comes to claims, but either Jonny V knows something or Casey Roo was the best he could come up with in his battle with Javier Castellano, She broke her maiden for $40K on the turf at 5F and has never been the mile distance, although she has plenty of turf distance breeding. I can’t imagine she’ll be 10-1 at post, but if she is I’d be a little concerned.
• 3 Benny’s Bullet seemed to be suffering from seconditis until she broke her maiden in a $40K claimer. Then, even though she went back to finishing second, Gary Gullo decided to take a chance by claiming the horse. He’s another one that isn’t known for his first off the claim. He puts blinkers on and puts Irad Ortiz in the saddle, at least a slight upgrade from Rosario Montanez. She’s another one that doesn’t look like she’ll go off as high as her ML odds of 5-1. She’ll be the top choice, but barely.
• 7 Sundae School has a 17-1-4-5 record. She broke her maiden in a mile dirt event for $25K then went right back to finishing behind horses. She’s certainly fast enough and has plenty of experience at the distance, but I just have an impediment when it comes to horses that seem more inclined to finish in the money. She fits and could inherit the win, but I when it comes time to push the send button, I’m not sure she’ll be on the ticket.
• 8 Wine Burglar broke her maiden in her 8th start, and ran respectably in a $50K starter allowance. I think she looks like a horse that matured from 3 to 4 and could improve. She showed a nice pressing style in her last. A close second choice.

RACE 8

• 2 Ocean Boulevard was in two stakes races in her last two of 2013 after breaking her maiden at Saratoga. She’s not the fastest horse in the race, she’s been off nearly 9 months, and she has pretty ordinary workouts for her return. I think that you have to include her because the return is in a NW1X.
• 4 Tiz May West won first time out last June and came back a year later and ran a competitive race at CD. She has every reason to improve. I’ll make her top pick.
• 5 Eddy Gourmet ran a monster race on the dirt at Delaware last out after spending most of her career on the turf. Hugh McMahon is one of those competent mid-Atlantic trainers who comes to Saratoga with a few promising horses. I don’t think you can dismiss the horse out of hand.
• 6 La Madrina has run two nice races at 7F. As long as she doesn’t lose contact with the pack she has a legitimate chance.
• 7 Dear Mama ran a very nice 6 1/2 F race at BEL first out in America. She’s a temptress in this field.
• 11 Love You Loads finally broke her maiden for Todd Pletcher at MTH. She has plenty of speed and Joe Bravo comes in to ride her.

RACE 9

• 3 Burn Control has two nice races at Parx. Frankly, I think the snootier NY handicappers dismiss the horses from a cheaper circuit out of hand, but until someone beats her, I think you have to put her in the mix.
• 7 Stars Above Me is a speedster from England that gets Graham Motion, Irad Ortiz and Lasix. She’d certainly be value at 5-1.
• 9 Isabelle looks like one of the horses that is hoping for the race to move to the dirt. If it doesn’t I still think she is fast enough to lead this field to the wire.

RACE 10

Although this race is carded at a mile on the turf, only 7, 8, and 12 even have a race on the turf.  Sort of looks like a bunch of horses are hoping for a shift to dirt. Pletcher sends out the first-timer 5 Same As and Velasquez gets the ride. The horse is listed at 5-1 on the ML, and she is getting some hype. I really don’t like the workout pattern  and he would be a bet against for me. 2 All the Way is also getting some hype, mainly based on his sibling and dam. I’m not initially interested, but if he gets live on the board I’d take a second look. If the race moves to the dirt, I’d really monitor the action on the MTOs. Neither sticks out. 10 Alexndeed moves way up on the dirt and would be a must use. 9 First Bid, the other Chad Brown trainee is another that moves up on the dirt.  The turf choices are below.

• 7 Uptown Joe has turf experience and his figures aren’t bad. Other than the AE’s , he at least has decent turf form.
• 11 Candir is well-bred for the turf and should improve on that surface. He gets a trainer switch to Chad Brown and a modest jockey improvement to Javier Castellano. He’s not a stickout – in fact, I’d say he’s underlayed at 7-2, but he may get excessive action because (1) there isn’t much else to take action and (2)  Brown/Castellano is a 30% combo. That means if you know nothing at all about horseracing and you bet that combo every time, you’d actually be making 1.5 cents on the dollar. On the other hand, they are in the slushy, if not frozen stage, at the Spa with zero wins in 5 starts. Perhaps they are due.
• Both of the AEs, 13 Jimmy Soul and 14 Jimmy Fillpot are on the must use list if they scratch in.

Since we can’t wait until 2 minutes to post to get the scratches (thanks NYRA) I’m putting this up now. Take the off the turf races for what they are worth.

It looks like the inevitable summer rain has hit paradise, and with two races coming off the turf in the late sequence it looks like big changes and scratches will be coming.

I wanted to do something a little different with the 7th and 10th races today. In cheaper races, especially maiden claiming and NW2, there are often horses that show as non-win types or simply out of all condition. When we are playing a multiple race sequence we can safely eliminate these horses from the win slot, even though they may have competitive numbers and a reasonably high probability of finishing in the money.

RACE 7

This is a NW2 race on for $25000 Claimers off the turf. Scratches are 3, 4, 5, 6, 8. We’ll eliminate right off the top the following horses:

• My Four Rewards (1 for 15)
• Kate is a Ten (1 for 19)
• Echluath(1 for 12)
• Datts da Boss (1 for 18)
• Eurokay by Me ((1 for 41)
• Baal Perazim (1 for 26)
• Golden Cheetah (1 for 17)

That leaves us three horses and an MTO to handicap. If the race goes off the turf, we’ll throw in the MTO, 13 Mr Rico Is Valid. 7 Sultry Warrior is listed at 5-1 on the morning line for no reason I can discern. She looks to be in poor condition. 2 Lemon and Honey has been knocking around this class a while but was just claimed by Gary Contessa and for that reason I didn’t put her in the non-win class. Contessa gets one more chance to turn the horse around. 11 Tacones has been racing in Florida and certainly doesn’t look outclassed in this group.

In the pick-4 we’ll use some combination of 2-11-13.

RACE 8

8 is scratched. That sucks because I had the best line about 8.

• 1 NightManeuver has been knocking at the door and has a win and  two thirds on wet tracks. The 1 post is no advantage at 7 furlongs and hopefully by the 8th we’ll know how the track is playing.
• 2 River Rocks just won his NW1X race and looks competitive here. He should have enough speed to avoid an serious backsplash.
• 1A Ground Force completes the military jargon entry. He also has 2 wins and 2 seconds on wet tracks. He just won an OC40000 – in fact he has 8 wins overall – so he is in for a tag today.
• 8 Eastwood – go ahead, make my day. Here’s a broken record at Saratoga – Pletcher/Velasquez, moving up through the conditions, plenty of speed. He’ll be the favorite and probably should be.

RACE 9

The Shuvee is already scheduled for the dirt so the question is who will defect.

• 2 Flashy American has been consistent for trainer Kenny McPeek, only finishing out the money twice in her last 10 races. She ran creditably in the Delaware Handicap, losing second by a half length to the well-regarded Princess of Sylmar.
• 3 Antipathy is listed at 9-5 on the ML and on a wet track could go off even shorter. After spending a few races with optional claimers,  she finished third, coincidentally behind Close Hatches and Princess of Sylmar in the Ogden Phipps at odds of 30-1. She has nice numbers and I think her last shows her to be a Graded horse, but 30-1 to even money is a dramatic change.
• As far as the other runners, S1 Swinger’s Party looks more suited to lesser stakes, 4 Unlimited Budget doesn’t appear to be in top form (I know, Pletcher/Castellano) but you should look at the board to see if she’s live, 5 Stanwyk seems to be a horse that likes to finish close without winning, 6 Hot Stones might be better suited to sprints, and 7 Ambusher looks maybe a cut below.

RACE 10

If we do the same exercise as the 7th race, 2 As Well, 4 Milkyyourway, 8 Zafiro Azul, and 11 Life’s A Stage all get eliminated at a glance. The race will be off the turf, so the MTOs are in. Scartches are 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11 ,14. After the scratches all I have are the MTOs

• Both the MTOs 15 Very Accomplished and 16 Touching My Toes are contenders. But like most MTOs they will be overbet.

That leaves me with 24 combinations. Pretty cheap to get a thrill. As Shapperdacapper put it, tread lightly today.

Yesterday was a tough day for me. I really got stuck on Charge Now in the Curlin and swung for the fences. Unfortunately, VE Day made a leaping catch at the wall and robbed me of a major score. But today is another day and there is still plenty of money to be made.

RACE 8

The 8th is my sentimental favorite race of the meet, the Amsterdam. It is named for the town I grew up in, originally home to the famous Sanford Farm and where the fabulous Nick Kling is the king of the OTB. It is one of the major prep races for the King’s Bishop at the end of the month.

• 2 Rock Fall was one of my early picks but was scratched.
• 4 Coup de Grace goes for top Kentucky trainer Larry Jones. It looks to me like the longer the distance, the less he likes it. He has an impressive off the pace win in the Oh Say at Delaware, and a solid work just five days ago. If he breaks cleanly he’ll have every chance to close by the front runners.
• With the two scratches 5 Tiznowforamerica makes it into the top three. I’m not sold on the horse, but someone has to complete the trifecta.
• 7 Noble Moon was another top selection that was scratched.
• 8 Captain Serious was just nipped in the Dwyer after slicing through statebreds in his first three races. He’s certainly fast enough to easily establish himself on the front and the Dwyer showed major talent.

RACE 9

• 2 Palace Dreams has been off since November and while she usually shows a lot of competitiveness, I had hesitations because she’s steadily been moving down the class ladder. Not a shocker, but not my first choice.
• 3 Miz Owell has a nice third on the SAR lawn and her last race on a yielding Belmont turf should have given her plenty of condition. Top pick.
• 6 Lady’s Lunar Luck is one of those horses that bounces up to restricted stakes and allowances and then rebounds to the optional claiming ranks. She fits here and really takes to the SAR turf.

RACE 10

• 3 Ulanbator. For all you geography buffs, Ulanbator is the capital of Mongolia. I think he is a bit of a guru longshot, but he’ll be 20-1 while the horse that beat him will be more in the 5-1 range. I think he is improving and might hit the board here.
• 4 Tonalist. This begins his drive for 3 YO of the year. I think if he wins out, he gets the nod over Chrome. This isn’t sentimentality. It is dispassionate analysis. He’s the best horse in the race, he has a good style, he wins on any kind of track, and he is the quintessential improving 3 YO. He’s not unbeatable, but he is strong.
• 5 Kid Cruz has done little wrong this spring and early summer. Other than a clunker in the Preakness, he’s shown ability in three restricted stakes and and the Graded Dwyer. I just don’t think you can label him as outless in this group.
• 7 Wicked Strong. 2-1 on the ML seems pretty ambitious for this horse. He has a closing style that may not be useful given the pace scenario and he seems to be moody about throwing his best into a race.

RACE 11

• 2 Ballybrit. Gary Contessa has been trying to figure out how to get this horse to the winner’s circle since he claimed him. The fact that he is keeping him at the ALW1X level is enough for me to give him one more chance.
• 6 Elroi has some decent figures and seems to run about the same each time. I never favor a horse with a plodding style. He is 0 for 2 at SAR. He looks like a contender but he’s hard to fall in love with.
• 10 Poliziotto would be a perfect choice if his last race was July 2014 instead of 2013. His pace figures put this field away. This will be his 6th race since 2011 which screams physical issues. However, Chad Brown trains and that means he’s in the mix. Of course I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins or is vanned off.
• 11 Tapitation gets the top nod. Not because he looks so much better than anyone else, but because he isn’t one of those professional NW1X horses yet and his one turf race gives me some confidence. The comment in that race was “rank on bit, climbing.” That tells me that Lezcano was trying to get the horse to relax and the horse wanted to run. I realize jockeys have to follow instructions, but I think pulling a horse like that rarely works out. Ortiz seemed to match better with the horse in an off the turf race last out and he stays with him.

This one seems full of races where any of five horses would not be a surprise.

RACE 7

• 2 – Shift Colors. While Shift Colors has had two bad starts, she’s had two very nice finishes. Note that Lopresti worked her out of the gate last time in 36 3/5. I’m going to make her the top selection.
• 3 – Hope Cross. Anybody but Chad Brown and Javier Castellano and I’m really downgrading the horse. She had the lead in the stretch last time and coughed it up, which normally is a negative. But with the connections she gets a fresh chance.
• 4 – Sumba Sunset. Another one with 2 place finishes in a row, the last after taking the lead in the stretch. On the other hand the winner of her last did come back to win a NW1X.
• After taking a second look I’m going to add the 8 Place Card, although honestly the addition is really more of an angle play. I’m still ambiguous on the horse but some good handicappers are high on her chances. I’m posting this well before post time
• 9 – Mobilize. This is sort of a, if you like Sumba Sunset you have to like Mobilize, pick, although Sumba Sunset has been the better of the two both times they met.
• 11- Truly Mizzed. Seems much better suited to the mile, but the outside post is a real impediment.

RACE 8

• 3 – Readthebyline. He ran a monster on May 7 and then came back with a bit of a clunker against better. He has some back class and there is no reason he shouldn’t improve off his last today. I’ll make him the top pick.
• 6 – MJ Plus has developed a serious case of seconditis, but given in his last nine races he’s been 1st or 2nd, and his total lengths behind in his seven place finishes is about 5 lengths, he is certainly eligible to be the one with his nose in front.
• 9 – Bug Juice is 3 for 4 at the distance and 2 for 2 at Saratoga. That is more than enough reason to put him in the mix.

RACE 9

I can’t get excited about #1 Commanding Curve, although there will probably be plenty of pace to run at. Update: Commanding Curve is scratched in favor of the Jim Dandy.

• 3 – Protonico. Pletcher, Castellano, stakes race. This is Pletcher’s Saratoga wheel house.
• 5- Charge Now. This is going to be my top pick. That Iowa Derby track was a mess, and once he didn’t break his race was over. I think he gets one more chance to prove he belongs.
• 9 – Joint Custody. 10 of 11 in the money and a terror on the mid-Atlantic circuit. We can give him one shot in the majors.

RACE 10

• 3 – Itapa is 20-1. I’m not sure why, but the post is good, the connections are good, and I can’t imagine she won’t get the mile trip.
• 4 Knotty Pine was the front runner, and 5 Jolene was the presser and they finished a nose apart. I’m not sure I could separate them comfortably today.
• 7 – Forensic is getting top billing for me. She was a bit unimpressive in the stretch in her last, but I like her style and I like her figures.

2-3-4-(8)-9-11/3-6-9/5-3-9/7-3-(4, 5)