Belmont October 1

Another interesting day at Belmont. There will be some prices today. I hope we find some of them.

Race 1

  • 6 Star Magnolia – has been off since May but Michelle Nevin has been strong with this move. Big drop from a $40K starter allowance but broke her maiden for this price in Feb. Steady works since early September for the return. Best figures.
  • 1 Shesgotthemoves – the other Nevin trainee was claimed last out for $25K. Wouldn’t be a financial loss if she won and was claimed, but still have to wonder why she’s being dropped. Don’t care for the two week break in workouts. Nevin 25% first off the claim.
  • 7 Mononoke – 21 start maiden not a high probability to win but does have 2 seconds and 7 thirds.

Race 2

Only three starters remain in the race, making it unbetable. Most likely 5 Bold Runner will be a strong favorite. 

  • 1a Jimmy Fillpot – Rudy Rodriguez has been on fire at the BEL meet and drops this one from MSW to a $50K claimer. Rodriguez 20% with the drops. Good speed and perhaps the drop allows him to keep it to the wire. 
  • 8 American Strong – ran a bang up race off a one-year layoff and is another one being dropped into the claiming ranks. Excellent win prospects.
  • 6 Professor Pegasus – has been knocking around this level a while but his last race was his best. 
  • 3 Tree Fire – Hasn’t gone off at less than 25-1 but does have a couple of close 4th place finishes in four lifetime starts. Not a surprise if he fills out the exotics.

Race 3

  • 5 Cara Marie – Expensive yearling purchase looked green in her first start but did show a bit of speed. Dutrow is huge with second time maidens. Nice work 5 days ago at Fair Hill where Dutrow keeps a barn. Lots of positives including Castellano staying aboard.
  • 3 Puca – broke poorly in her dirt sprint debut race. Tried the turf last time and didn’t disgrace herself.  Mott horses always improve with experience.
  • 2 – Summer Forever – Toner tried her on the turf first out and she ran fairly evenly. Well-bred for the dirt.

Race 4     One of the two races remaining on the turf 

  • 10 First Summation – has been off a year, but Clement is above average with this move. Nice steady series of works. If she is wound and ready, should be right there at the wire.
  • 9 Super City – had a clear lead in her last after breaking slow and rushing to the front. Competitive figure and some useful intervening workouts.
  • 8 Gu Gu Beans – heartbreaking sort has been running well since June but can’t crack the winner’s circle. Starting to get that look of a professional maiden but has the talent to win.
  • 3 Joshans Giant – Has been running evenly but given her best race was a $40K maiden she may have trouble graduating at the MSW level.

Race 5    

Off the turf and both MTOs 5 Island Candy and 6 Kiss Cat are in. Island Candy is likely to be a big favorite.

  • 8 Outer Orbit – back at the $25K level after trying ALW NW1X with no success last out a week ago. I like the quick return and I like the wire to wire capability. 
  • 2 Under Scrutiny – stumbled at the start last out but prior to that was very game in winning a NW1X on the SAR lawn. Connections are not the best for a third of trainer Rodrigo Ubilo’s wins this year have come with this horse and jockey Arroyo up.
  • 1 Chow Fun – last win came at BEL in June at this distance. Best pace figure in the field.
  • 4 Ready’s Legend – Pletcher drops the horse in an effort to get a win. Was well enough thought of to be placed in stakes races but had no success there. Ran much better in last when dropped to $50K. If she’s going to win again, looks like this might be the level.

Race 6

  • 4 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid – dropped her rider out of the gate last out but Nevin wheels her back so we can assume she came out of the race in good shape. More than 50% first and second in her career. Off her best she should beat this field.
  • 2 Madre Ditutticapi – the mother of all bosses is 2 for 4 over the BEL main. Has been running consistent figures and switches back to Arroyo, last jockey to win on the horse. Should go off at attractive odds.
  • 1 Bobby Jo – riding a three race winning streak for three different trainers. No reason to expect she won’t run another good one.
  • 6 La Belle Valeria – the best speed in the race. She’s been a little short in the stretch but should be winging on the lead again.

Race 7

  • 2 Blue Pigeon – 9-5 on the ML and looks like it on paper. Clement trainee was unlucky not to win either of his last two. His poorest start came in a graded stakes event a year ago. Clement is 31% route to sprint, although to be fair the BEL miles on the turf are still only one turn.
  • 3 Archer Hill – just missed last time out. Definitely has possibilities.
  • 4 Hooked Forever – the 1 for 24 record has to make him a low win prospect, but he has 9 place and show finishes which makes him a good prospect to be part of the exotics.
  • 6 Saltine Warrior – has been heartless with longer distances, but is 5 of 6 in the money at BEL.

Race 8

  • 2 Three Alarm Fire – Broke his maiden in impressive fashion last out for Albertrani. Should have no trouble with the mile and a sixteenth distance.
  • 4 Lawmaker – takes the blinkers off for Pletcher and he is 33% with that move. Trained by Chad Brown up until March and he thought enough of the horse to start him in the Grade 2 Jerome. Hasn’t been proven on the BEL main, but definitely a quality horse.
  • 1 Encryption – ran well in an ALW NW1X at BEL last out. Prior race was the Haskell and he was well over his head there. Graded stakes placed and powerful pace figures.

Race 9

Off the turf but no MTOs in the field.

  • 2 Classic Aussie – finished with interest after going wide around the turn. Nice work between races. Orseno is not having a good year and has not had a second out winner yet, but Classic Aussie may break that string.
  • 9 Summersault – Lots of traffic trouble in her debut bit still managed to finish within three lengths of the winner. Like her chances today.
  • 1 Jadam – steady close in her debut, the same race as Summersault.  Given the pace, the small close is more impressive. Will need a good ride not to get buried on the rail.
  • 10 Sky Fortune – puts the blinkers on for Jeremiah Englehart. Showed some early interest last out but has a couple of nice workouts since that race.