With apologies, a shortened analysis today. A ton of work to do to get ready for Saturday and it’s better spent on the late P4 at CD! Full card analysis for BEL on Saturday.

Race 1      1-4-8-3

Jademarie is an uninspiring 1 for 17, but she really picked up when returned to the turf. Tepid choice. Stella Brown has been off since last July, but Chad Brown usually brings his charges back in good condition. Dropping quite a bit in class today. Cap’s View was claimed last December by Michelle Nevin. She’s 5 of 7 first or second, although 4 of those are seconds. If Nevin has her in shape she’s a contender. First Embrace ran well at GP but flopped at KEE. Still, with a good run she’s in the mix today.

Race 2      7-3-6

Scarlet Goddess has been close at GP and should be the main speed. Figures suggest she’s a prime contender. Lebowski couldn’t keep up with the easy winner of her last race, but was best of the rest. Game Girl switches to Linda Rice and she is 26% first off the claim.

Race 3      4-7-8

All the New ran better than looked last out and is making a big drop today. Nice Try really improved when moved to the turf last out. Third lifetime start and drops 50% in price. Sixbits improved his number quite a bit when moved to the turf from the AQU inner.

Race 4      1-8-6-7

Bileaps and Bounds has the best lifetime number and should improve off the drop from his last. Shotgun Love was taken by Nevin last out and fits well in this group. Should be prompting the pace. Lady Luciano moves to the Contessa barn and looks to turn the tables on Touching my Toes. The latter has shown a proclivity to finish in the money and should be solid in the verticals.

Race 5      4-5-9-8

My Sweet Girl puts the blinkers on and comes off a good run in the Grade 3 Orchid. All in Fun finished fourth in the Dahlia at Laurel and off he best is a major player. Season Ticket is another that looks to be in top condition and has competitive numbers. Off Limits hasn’t shown her best in America but definitely has the talent to be competitive here.

Race 6      3-5-4

May Be a Diamond has been running consistent numbers for a while and should prefer the fast track. Gypsum Johnny just won a state-bred OC $40K and moves to an open NW1X. Horse usually is part of the picture. Amoral is the potential front runner and will have to be caught.

Race 7      2-3-8

Amazing Anne has run well on the BEL turf and is 4 for 4 in the money at the distance. Sugar Mags came off her maiden win to run a decent race with winners. Back at the same level today. Saratoga Smoke is clearly the front runner and if she comes off the layoff in condition she’s the danger.

Race 8      1-5-2

King Kranz comes off a strong second in the Bayshore and has been stronger in these restricted affairs. Awesome Gent is lightly raced and had been improving with every race until the Bay Shore. I’ll excuse that one due to the mud and if he runs back to his prior races he’s a major danger. Tale of S’avall comes out of the Wood and the Tampa Bay Derby. His Champagne showed he will grab the BEL dirt. Puts the blinkers on.

Race 9      8-2-11

Dreamaker just missed in a MSW at WO and drops into a $40K claimer today. Completely Bonkers comes off a four month layoff for good layoff trainer Linda Rice and drops from MSW. Tracking Stock has the top last race figure and has a good effort on the BEL turf.

This year’s Kentucky Derby is difficult because even the clear favorite – Nyquist – has some negatives that could give bettors pause. On the other hand, in my opinion, the horses that could potentially win the race are few in number and there are a lot of horses I’m tossing completely. So what do we look for in a  Derby winner?

• First and most important are horses with a good foundation. That means some races as a two year old that set up the three year old season. Six races total seems to be the ideal number.
• Graded victories.  If a horse hasn’t proven it can win or finish second against Grade 1 animals, it’s not likely to start doing so in the Derby.
• Tactical speed. There are 20 horses in the Derby. If a runner doesn’t get a good attacking position by the time the real running starts he may be out of the race.
• Breeding. Regardless of the diminishment of dosage, horses still need to have the right genes for a mile and a quarter in May.
• Ability to run well late. If a horse can’t finish, his chances in the Derby are significantly lowered.
• Taking to Churchill Downs. The track seems to be one that some horses don’t run well on. Check the workouts to see if the horses seem to get into the Churchill surface.
• Which horses are likeliest to be first or second at the eighth pole? 95% of the time one of the horses first or second at the eighth pole will be the winner.

Given those factors, I’ve divided the field into A, B and C runners. A runners have the highest probability of winning. B runners are less likely to win, but good probabilities of running in the money. C runners don’t look good enough to be part of the verticals.

Let’s start with the C horses (in post position order).

C Horses

• Trojan Nation is still a maiden, and although he finished second in the Wood, I’m generally discounting the horses coming out of that race.
• Suddenbreakingnews is a deep closer stuck in a rail position. He should get shuffled well back early, circle and make a run. I just don’t think it will be enough. His finish in the Arkansas Derby was not particularly fast and his figures are not that impressive overall.
• Mo Tom has beaten Grade 3 horses in Louisiana, but his last two preps really give me no reason to believe the horse will improve enough to be a factor here. 
• My Man Sam finished second in the Blue Grass, although that race has not been productive in a while. Of course, that was when the race was run on the synthetic. Still, a horse eligible for a NW2L just can’t get me excited in this race.
• Oscar Nominated did win the Grade 3 Spiral on the synthetic at Turfway, but otherwise he has very little to recommend him.
• Whitmore comes out of Arkansas with a couple of in the money finishes in the two Derby preps. His style looks like he’ll be toward the back of the pack and while he might be running at the end, I just can’t see him passing enough horses to be a factor.
• Tom’s Ready jumped up to second in the Louisiana Derby. That was a new top for him, but other than that race he doesn’t look anywhere near fast enough.
• Shagaf went into the Wood as the favorite and did nothing to enhance his Derby changes. While Chad Brown is an amazing trainer, I don’t think even he will get the horse to improve enough to be a factor here. His final three eighths was dreadfully slow and he doesn’t have a figure that suggests any competitiveness.
• Majesto finished second to Nyquist off a single win in his maiden race. Perhaps he’s on the improve, but I just can’t see him being a factor in this one.
• Danzig  Candy looks like a need to lead speed horse and at some point should be in front. Eventually he will get swallowed. Not a real prospect for me.

B Horses

• Lani comes out of the UA Derby with a pretty slow figure. This may be my bias, but I can’t give a horse shipping from Tokyo to Meydan to Churchill much of a chance to win the race. I believe this horse needs more time off to recover from the travel, and his works at Churchill are not really eye-catching. Still, the horse is by the pre-eminent sire Tapit and has negotiated the distance. I didn’t want to toss him completely, but I’m more reluctant than enthusiastic about his chances.
• Destin won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and before that the SF Davis. On class, it would be hard to argue he is the equal of the higher rated horses, but on the positive side he is getting better with each start. However, I wound up putting him in the B category because he is the Pletcher/Castellano entrant, he’s nicely bred for the distance, and he’s beaten a couple of other horses I have in the B category.
• Mohaymen achieved favoritism in the Florida Derby and simply flopped. You have two choices here. Put a line through the race, assuming the horse wasn’t right that day, or assume he finally met some real competition and was exposed as a pretender. I’m taking the middle road. Moyhamen’s races prior to the Florida Derby were excellent. He showed decent speed, and plenty of closing kick. His figures from those races would put him in the mix in this field. His breeding is impeccable – Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare. Still I can’t completely excuse what happened in Florida, especially considering he finished in pedestrian time. It’s not often I’d say a horse listed at 10-1 ML might be underlayed, but Mohaymen just might be that horse.
• Outwork misses out on the A rating for a few reasons. One, that Wood Memorial race really looked dreadful on paper. All the horses came home in time that in some years would make them Dereby throwouts. He did break his maiden as a two year old, but after that early 2015 start it took him until February of this year to return. He misses on a few of the key factors, but he seems to be improving quickly and wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the verticals.
• Mor Spirit is a Grade 1 winner, and he did finish second in the SA Derby. He’s somewhat ambiguous for me. His finishing 3/8 is not what I look for in a Derby contender, and while his sire is by Giant’s Causeway, and his dam is by Dixie Union, he still doesn’t look like as much of a mile and a quarter horse for my taste. On the plus side, he always gives an honest effort and he has a nice race over the Churchill surface. He’s Bob Baffert’s only runner and I have to expect hell be putting plenty of training skill into getting him ready for the Derby.
• Brody’s Cause has the talent, but may be up against it here. He’s a plodder breaking from the 19, meaning he’ll have to duck to the rail early and circle the entire field. He was thrashed by Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby but did come back in the Blue Grass. He’s got a win over the CD dirt, has excellent breeding, has a good 3/8 time in the Blue Grass, and was a decent third to Nyquist in last year’s BC Juvenile. Not awesome, but I couldn’t leave him out.

A Horses

• Creator took a while figuring out what it was all about. Two months ago he was still a maiden, but showed some talent in the Rebel and fully came to hand in the Arkansas Derby. He’s regally bred for the distance and I like the way Asmussen has brought him to the race. On the down side, it’s harder to imagine he’ll get the same perfect trip he got in the Arkansas race. He’s breaking from an inside post and he’s adopted a deep closing style, which means he should get shuffled back early and will have to work to find the right trip. Intentions count, but in his case it may also take a lot of luck.
• Gun Runner should get out early enough to establish a good tracking spot. He should have plenty of stamina – he’s by Candy Ride out of a Giant’s Causeway mare. He’s got the right pattern – three races as a two year old and then sharp improvement as a three year old. He swept the Louisiana preps, and while they are generally a step or two below the other major preps, with a little improvement he could be the surprise of 2016.
• Exaggerator destroyed the field over a sloppy track in the SA Derby,  running a really impressive final three eighths. He’s got plenty of bottom off his dam side and a ton of racing experience. Another one that is dependent on finding the right spot and getting the right pace. He’s certainly a much greater prospect on a wet track, but he shouldn’t have any trouble with the fast dirt. He’s on the improve and has to be given contender respect.
• Nyquist is the race favorite and is completely deserving. He’s got four grade 1 wins and a couple of grade 2’s. He’s beaten a number of today’s competitors, his figures are uniformly impressive, and He should be in a dream spot when it comes time to start the real running. So what’s the down side? First, Uncle Mo is a fairly new sire so his distance ratings are probably more tentative, and his dam sire Forestry was a dead solid sprinter. Second, while he won the Florida Derby comfortably, he was a bit eratic in the last eighth of a mile. But trainer Doug O’Neill says he is thriving at Churchill and his workouts were designed to make sure the mile and a quarter doesn’t stop his undefeated run. In some years he might be shaky as the favorite, but in this field all the other horses are just as ambiguous. Finally, there is a great amount of pressure on Mario Gutierrez. Gun Runner, Outwork, Shagaf, and Danzig Candy should all be winging for the lead, and a couple of them may turn out to make the pace ultra-hot. Gutierrez will have to use all his skill to make sure the favorite doesn’t get fried in a pace battle and has plenty left for the stretch run. If he’s on a hot pace, then what happens in the stretch is very much up in the air.

Nyquist is the obvious favorite, and it really is hard to make a compelling case for any of his rivals. You have maidens, horses eligible for NW2L races, and horses that haven’t beaten top graded company. You have horses that looked like Derby favorites fall by the wayside in their final preps, and the best excuses we are given are that you just have to ignore that race. You have horses that seem to be getting better by leaps and bounds. And then you have Nyquist, a horse that has done nothing wrong in his career and has more graded wins than any two other horses combined. His big strikes are breeding that at the moment doesn’t look like it’s the best for a mile and a quarter, some speed to keep him honest near the lead, and some excellent closers who should be charging hard in the stretch. But I can tell you that Doug O’Neill knows exactly how to get a horse ready for the Derby and he’s had a plan for Nyquist since last year. I have to trust that he’s executed the plan to perfection and it is up to Nyquist to run the winning race at this point. He’s going to get bet, so the way to make money if you put him on top is to find some exotic bets.

My advice – I’ve given you a couple of other A horses and a group of B horses and it should be clear which ones I think are most likely. Assume a fair pace, and assume Nyquist will relax in the right spot to make his stretch run. And if you aren’t willing to do that, well I guess you’ll be taking your chances with to closers coming to the race in top shape.

Race 1.     6-2-5

Fuhrlong has one start and showed good speed. Tale of Two goes for good 2YO trainer Mark Casse, has some eye-catching works and should excel at the sprint distance. St Benedicts goes for RuRod who already has a 2YO winner at the meet. Nice works.

Race 2.     2-6-5

Quibbler is making a big drop in price and looks like the best term of the two Persaud runners. Should be the one to catch. Ferzetti walked out of the gate last out but before that had been close at this level. I like him at the odds. Buckskin Doll was claimed last out by Ray Handel, who is still struggling to make an impression. Still, he’s got a competitive figure.

Race 3.     3-7-5-4

Enterprising has been having a hard time cracking the winner’s circle  but he looks to be in top shape and this level gives him a good chance. West Hills Giant seems more comfortable with state-breds, but at one time he was a very fast horse. May be a pretender, but at 12-1 he has some interest. Slim Shadey has been running well in 2016 and switches trainers to MItchell Friedman. Competitive in this group. Toledo Eddie is the fastest horse in the race, but is 0 for 12 on the turf. However, he does have 5 seconds. May be good in the verticals.

Race 4.     5-1-4-10

Texting puts the blinkers on for Chad Brown who is 21% with that move. Has been closing from well off the pace and may need to get a little closer to have a chance. Should benefit from the switch to Johnny V. Galileo’s Song also goes for Brown and she showed good talent going off as the favorite in her first out. As a Galileo she’s very well bred for the 10 furlongs. Bene Pista really woke up when moved to the turf and given Lasix. Doesn’t seem well bred for the distance, but in this field I wouldn’t discount his chances. Tiz Jeweled is another well suited to the distance, and has the best figures in the field.

Race 5.     3-6-4

Natalie Victoria was claimed last out off a win at a slightly lower price. Before that she won at a higher price. Fits this field and looks to be in excellent shape. Guayana is rarely out of the money and her last race suggests she’s as good as anyone in the field. Doinwhatshelikes ran well in her first race of 2016 and should improve today.

Race 6.     1-8-6

Momma’s Mark nearly beat a $25K field and the move to a state-bred NW1X really isn’t a big jump up. Has the best last race figure. Brother O’Connell looks far better suited to the turf and is making his third start of 2016. Best lifetime turf number in the field. Hirschbein makes his initial start of 2016 after being gelded over the winter. If he runs back to last year’s numbers he’s competitive today.

Race 7.     8-7-2

This race is filled with speed and Quiet Ruler is one of the few that has a style that may be advantageous. Should track behind the speed and the race breaks down he should be the one to benefit. Victory is Sweet makes his first start of 2016 after showing good speed in last year’s Amsterdam. Perhaps seven furlongs may be tough first time out this year, but this is one fast horse. Juba has wired a field at this distance but may have to battle with Victory is Sweet up front.

Race 8.     6-9-4

Browse looked good in his first start of 2016. The figure from that race was his lifetime top and she looks very strong in this field. My Girl Corey showed good speed in her debut race. Should be the one to catch. Sense of Beauty puts the blinkers on for Pletcher and he is 23% with that move. Had trouble at the break last out but his penultimate race got a number almost as good as the top choice.

Race 9.     3-8-5-9

Princessofthetheives has good speed, competitive numbers and should enjoy the cutback in distance. Galroyale, March On, and Orzo have been struggling as a maidens, but have enough talent to be factors.

Race 1.     5-4

Holy Gold has one race, showed plenty of speed and a little bit improvement and it will be hard to keep her out. Summer Sally goes for Ru Rod who is good with debut horses. Very well bred for the sprint distances.

Race 2.     2-9-6-4

Sakara make a substantial drop in price in this very competitive affair. In his maiden win he established a good tracking position and closed well for the win. He’ll have to be able to do that today. Hotinthehamptons in one of the few that has shown decent speed and has been gelded since his last race. He’s also making a big drop in price. Tree Shaker just won at this price, although it was a NW2. It was  also his first turf race and was by far his best race. May have stumbled on the right formula. Mav just broke his maiden and while he’s eligible for a NW2 his Figues suggest he has a chance.

Race 3.     6-3-1

Erik the Red is a hard trying horse that has one a third of his starts at BEL. Linda Rice is good off the layoff and the horse has done well coming off rests in the past. Drops in half from his last race price. Second City ran better than looked in the Stud Muffin, especially considering he broke in the air and worked hard early to get into a pressing spot. Worth a look at the odds. Rockford is riding a two race win streak including the Kelly Kip. In his last nine races he hasn’t been worse than second. Hard to ignore.

Race 4.     10-5-3

Ditch Em puts the blinkers on for George Weaver. His last race was a big improvement and he’s well bred for this first start on the turf. Could be the one at a decent price. Spa Duchess has been off since last year, but is coming back in a claimer after a steady diet of MSW in 2015. Given how week the field is, he has to be given a serious look. Jennifer’s Legacy didn’t really show much first time out but she was coming out of an outside post and had to race wide. I have a feeling she has more talent than she exposed in that race and she should relish the longer trip.

Race 5.     3-7-5

Unbridled Juan sticks out in this field. He’s at the right price level, and he hasn’t been out of the money in his career. Not a high win type, but still has by far the best figures in the field. Sioux has plenty of speed and switches to the RuRod barn. Seems likeliest to give the favorite a battle in the stretch. Mills should be looking to make a move in the stretch. Fits the price level.

Race 6.     1-2-9-6

Slapstick is one of the runners with good turf experience. Has been off since last year and his two year old numbers look as good as any other horse’s three year old numbers. If he comes back filled out he’s the main contender. Stormin Stephen has run well on the turf and was gelded over the winter. Workout pattern suggests he should be ready. The Undersheriff has shown good speed and turns back to a sprint distance. Should be better suited for  six furlongs. Whatstotalkabout broke lazily in his maiden race on the inner. Figures to improve on the turf.

Race 7.     4-2-10-7

Summer Breezing is 2 of 4 on the BEL turf and has been working well for his return. Englehart is 39% off the long layoff and that is plenty of reason to put him on top. Runaway Posse goes off the long layoff for Mott who just put one over on Sunday. Great turf numbers. Dark Roast struggles to get home first but finishes in the money 70% of the time. Looks solid in the verticals. Asset Inflation should be setting the fractions in this way and may take the field wire to wire. Speed is always dangerous.

Race 8.     9-3-2

At Guard goes first time with winners and he made a big move forward with his maiden win. Should be the main speed and has some nice maintenance works. Economic Model looked promising in the Swale, but was outmatched in the Tampa Bay Derby. Fits much better in this group. Figures say he is competitive. Conquest Harlequin has two nice starts from the far outside posts and gets a much better position today. Another horse on the improve with good chances to beat this field.

Race 9.     4-6-1

Street Shark should benefit from the cutback to a sprint. His winning races suggest at his best he tops this field. The Imposter finished 2015 in good fashion, but seems to have needed his first two 2016 races.  This one is the third off the layoff and he looks ready to run his best. Red Creme ships in from California. Has an excellent win percentage and DJ seems to have gotten him moving in a good direction. Jose Ortiz takes the ride and that should help.

Race 1.     6-2-5

New York Chrome has a win at BEL and is making a substantial drop in price, although his figures aren’t as dominant as you might expect. He’s got some tactical speed and gets a good switch to Irad. Saint Joseph should be winging up front. He switched trainers to Barbara two back and he seems to have him going in the right direction. His lone win came at this distance. Nicholson hasn’t looked formful since coming off a short break, but he has had some success at BEL. Maybe a bit of a stab but should go off long and can make the verticals.

Race 2.     4-8-3      Dirt:  15-7-1

Street Fightin Man is one of the few with primary turf experience. He’s gotten the ultimate equipment change since his last, and his turf numbers are as good as anything in here. Worth a look at the odds.  Kangaroo Style seems better meant for the turf and his workout pattern should have him ready today. There Goes Ben gets a positive switch to Irad and he makes a big drop today. Seemed to be getting better at the end of last year, and if he has filled out could be a danger.

Race 3.     3-2-5

Takrees comes off a close second in the Cicada and should relish the extra half furlong. Estelle looked good at GP this spring, grudgingly giving ground in the stretch of a seven furlong affair. Has the best last race figure. Laxfield Road is one for one on the dirt, and after breaking her maiden ran creditably in two stakes races. Ward is 37% off the long layoff. Every reason to give the horse win consideration.

Race 4.     5-2-3

Sweetrayofsunshine just wired a field at AQU and in her prior race won the Xtra Heat. In fact in her last six races she has four wins and two seconds. She loves to win and never gives a bad accounting. Has to be used. Myfourchix had a little trouble at the start and ran evenly in the Broadway which was run in good time. 5 of 5 first or second at the distance and has a win at BEL. Awesome News gets a nice switch to Johnny V and rarely finishes out of the money.

Race 5.     10-8-1     Dirt: 1-10-9

Bapu has the best figure of the horses that have made most of their starts on the turf. Southern Union showed great improvement on the turf and should keep moving forward. Shootout hasn’t been on the turf but has been in the money in his last three. Turf breeding is decent and Castellano takes the ride.

Race 6.     9-1-6-4

Lady Kressa has the best lifetime figures and could turn the tables on Lamontagne today. War Queen comes over from Great Britain for trainer Chad Brown. He is lights out with turf fillies shipping from Europe. Has a win on the soft turf. Lamontagne has good speed on the turf but may find the softer going less to her liking. Still, is consistently in the money.  Gold Tinker goes for Alan Goldberg who has a good win percentage from limited starts. Could surprise at good odds.

Race 7.     1-6-7

Geaux Mets rarely runs a bad one and is at a very comfortable price level. Should have no trouble with the added half furlong. Bass River Road won last time he was at this level and looks to be about as fast as the top choice. Curious Cal drops a good amount in price. Has one start since last Aug and that should set him up well for today.

Race 8.     1-3-7

Zindaya has run decently off the layoff and has a steady diet of restricted stakes. On her best day is a major contender. The switch to Chad Brown should be a big plus for her, Shrinking Violet missed the Grade 2 Monrovia by the slimmest of margins. Figures say she is in the mix. Lady Shipman rarely goes past 5 1/2 furlongs, but she is a win machine and a very fast horse.

Race 9.     8-3-1.    Dirt:  1-9-11