Very tough day today. I’ll be looking for spots.

Race 1      5-1-8

Mister Popsicle is the best front speed and has the best lifetime figure. Second off the claim for DJ. Mack Miller has not been having a great year (something you couldn’t say about his namesake) but drops by more than half in search of a win. If he runs to his previous figures he’s in the mix. Alysaro is the other figure horse. Four starts this year, three in the money. These three horses are likely the first three choices, but I simply couldn’t find a price horse that struck me.

Race 2      7-2-6 

In this race there are a couple of horses that have started and a couple of first timers that seem to be in the mix. Hit It Once More already has two starts and in his last he hung tough until the end. Looks the best of the horses that have a start. Littlebitadominic goes for the talented Linda Rice. The workout pattern looks good and Jose Ortiz gets up. New York;s Zip is a City Zip colt starting for Leo O’Brien. O’Brien has lost a lot of his touch, but the workouts look decent and Johnny V takes the mount.

Race 3      4-6-7

Thundergram hasn’t been worse than second in his last four. No reason to expect any less today. Lietenant Seany O switched from low profile Lilli Kurtinecz to the well regarded Mike Maker. On his best day he fits with this group and at 12-1 he could be worth a long look. Infinite Midnight only has three starts and seems to be on the improve for Chad Brown. Most dangerous horse in a race is the rapidly improving three year old and this one fits the bill.

Race 4      3-5-7

Dynamic Decision is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and was claimed last out by the capable Danny Gargan. Sharp work since the claim. Chunnel was eased last out when in over his head. Fits much better in this group and his last trip at the distance had him just behind the top choice. Verger make his first start with winners after a sharp maiden victory. Another improving three year old , but you have to be concerned about Brown dumping the horse at a fire sale price. Still, may have the talent to beat a $40K field.

Race 5      (13) 7-10 (14)

Leaveematthegate is first on the AE list and if he makes it in should be the danger. Figures look dominant against this crew. Storm Prophet ran an even race last out and puts the blinkers on in an effort to get him focused. Mike Hushion is 26% with second time maidens. Borrowed Dreams outran his longshot odds in his debut race and earned a good enough figure to generate some interest. The Undersheriff improved markedly when moved to the turf. Big rider switch from Arroyo to Johnny V.

Race 6      4-2-5

Holdtherightcards had a troubled trip last out in a race that figured as a strong one. Is by a top sire of precocious young horses, Tiz Wonderful. Nevin is strong with second start maidens. Flexibility goes first time for the tough combination of Chad Brown and Manny Franco. Works suggest some talent. Spooked Out goes for Pletcher/Velasquez and he also has some good works.

Race 7      5-7-4

Make a Decision was claimed last out by Mike Maker after running second at this level at SAR.  Maker has given the horse six weeks off and that should be enough time to get him pointed in the right direction. At his best he’s competitive with these. Ocala Jim is another entered for the tag. He had a bang-up year in 2014, but has had some trouble cracking the code this year. At his best he’s competitive with these. Payment Terms only has four lifetime starts, one of them in a state-bred stakes. He has two wins at BEL  We’ll see if he can negotiate the stretch out.

Race 8      8-1-2

Reload was a G3 winner last year but has had an abbreviated campaign this year. Still, he has a win over the BEL turf at this distance and always seems to give a good effort. Inchcape has a similar running style to Reload and may actually be the one to catch. He’s another that has run a consistent set of top figures.  Fredricksburg is a long 15-1 on the ML. He’s got a second and a third in his two races at BEL and should be able to get a comfortable position from the rail. Worth considering at the price. Notacatbutallama ran a great race against the top NY turf stakes horses in Lubash and King Kreesa in the West Point. Last race wasn’t bad, and I can excuse it because he came back in 11 days.  He gets a more reasonable rest this time and certainly fits the price and distance.

Race 9      7-2-9-10

This race looks ultra-competitive on paper. I think I could make a case for seven of the runners. I’ll start with War Dancer. While he hasn’t won in 2015, he has been competitive in Grade 1’s. He has a nice tracking style and may find the cutback in distance more to his liking. Messi is devoid of any early foot, but showed a strong closing kick in his first two races in NA. He faltered in the Sword Dancer after a bobbling start, but Graham Motion brings him right back in another graded race. Besides, you can’t get too down on a horse that loses to Flintshire, Red Rifle and Twilight Eclipse. Mr. Speaker comes off a Grade 2 win at Laurel, but he is also 3 for 7 on the BEL turf. McLaughlin is shrewd with his horses, and usually has them wound up for big events like this one. Given the presence of mostly closers, All Included may inherit the lead. He’s lightly raced in comparison to some of the others but has won half his races. Dangerous if he goes to the front and is allowed to dawdle along.

Race 10   8-11-4

Reimburse is a juicy prospect at her 12-1 ML. In her first start she checked badly at the start, losing all chance. She was a bit awkward at the break in her second start but still managed to get up with the leaders. That 8th place finish is much better than looked. The cutback in distance may help and Lezcano’s return for the ride is a positive. Ava’s Kitten goes for Chad Brown after a very competitive race in the P G Johnson. Definitiely the maid threat. On Leave ran well first time for McGaughey and cuts back to the sprint distance today. Breeding says she is well suited for the seven furlongs and workouts say she iis ready to rock this time out.

Not a pretty betting day at first glance. Too many WYSIWYG races or races where seven horses look like they have a reasonable chance.

Race 1      3-6-7

Axtell ran in a stakes last out, finished close in both his maiden starts and drops to $75K. Looks tough on paper. Strong Dude is a 12-1 first timer for Contessa. He’s got some nice works and in a weak field is worth a look. Denim Blue drops out of MSW. Two starts at SAR weren’t horrible and he should improve this start.

Race 2      6-5-3

First Charmer was nipped by Lilikoi but I like him to turn the tables today. She was coming off a short rest and should show a little more. Stone Supplier is another one coming out of the same race. Showed some courage in the stretch and will probably be longer than the horses that beat her. Hush Now was third in that race after a bad stumble at the start. Given she had shown good pressing ability she has every right to improve enought to win today.

Race 3      3-6-4

Modus Operandi has a lot of starts but a lot of good numbers. If she decides to finish today she could be the one. Khaleesi Kat is the strongest closer and may already have two wins had she not had all sorts of trouble in her last. Equal chances to win with the top pick. Angel Choir is all the speed here and that is always going to be dangerous. Three pretty equal choices including on the tote board.

Race 4      8-3-1/1A

Spartan Emperor showed speed in both his starts and last time held it to deep stretch. Looking for the last step today. My Tommy Boy looked much better on the dirt than his last race on the turf. Should be in a good striking position. The Sunrise Stallions entry of Rich Dalone and How Frosty It Is have been knocking at the maiden level for a while. They each have run races that would be competitive with this group. Outside chances.

Race 5      1/1A-4-3

The Jacobson entry looks tough on both ends. Chasing Bubbles was just claimed for $40K and drops down to $12,500, a typical Jacobson move. Bass River Road is another $40K claimee. He is 6 for 16 overall with five of those at this distance. Gentrify got his last win at BEL in June, showed good speed last out at BEL and has competitive figures. A bit of an in and outer, but dangerous at the front. Mach Seven is close to 50% in the money, although only about 11% win. Has shown some affinity for BEL.

Race 6      3-2-5

Scorpion Aly  has had a good season for Patricia Farro who is 1 for 4 shipping into BEL. The mare has not been over the BEL surface, but she has shown ability on different lawns and looks to be placed at the right level.  Love That Kelly has been popular at the claim box and has two in the money finishes in three tries at BEL. Looks to be in good condition. Low key connections ensure a good price. Bargaining Table goes second off the claim for RuRod. She’s been consistent figurewise but has had trouble reacing the winner’s circle this year. In a good spot this time though.

Race 7      5-11-2-9

The last three races in the P4 sequence look highly competitive. I went with Dark Roast. He just won a statebred allowance and drops into the OC $40K ranks. He’s well suited to the seven surlong distance and has shown an affinity for BEL. Glowing Ember drops out of ALW NW1X into this statebred affair. He’s another with an affinity for BEL and should be best at this distance. Lord of Love seems more likely in the money than in the winner’s circle, but the figures are competitive. Could be part of the finish. Powerful Instinct may want more distance but if he is close at the top of the stretch he could be a factor.

Race 8      7-2-6-4

Ocean Knight was well regarded early in the year, even winning a graded event. The SAR race was a good combacker and at his best he should top the field. Second City is 4 for 6 at the distance and looks to be in good condition. May seem a cut below the top runners here, but given he is the closing speed and is at 20-1 ML I’ll give him a long look. Noble Moon was running graded races last year and lately has been showing some front speed. Chances look better today. Face of Winner generally goes to the front and stays there. Faltered late in the BEL mud last out but still showed courage. Like his chances today.

Race 9      6-4-2-12

Preying Mantis had been fading but gets first Lasix today. Should be the one to catch. Sheyn Vi Di Levone ran well last time and puts the blinkers on today. Taken by Surprise is the Pletcher/Velasquez runner and should improve this time out. Love You Babe was stuck on the far outside last time and finds herself there again. If she can find the trip she’s got a real chance.

You never know when all the stars are going to align and Wednesday was a huge day for me. I had the winner of the first eight races at BEL. That was the early Pick 5 ($4,444 for 50 cents), the early Pick 4 ($557 for 50 cents), the first six Pick 3’s ($109, $1,380, $739, $240, $126,  $228) and two 9-1 shots along the way.  I don’t like the card today quite as much today, but as I said, you never know.

Race 1      5-2-3

While Ferzetti may get most of the action (and is not outless) I tend to stay away from 13 start maidens that have a lot of seconds. I went instead with Zealous Wildcat. She only has two starts, although they are widely spaced. She also drops down from MSW to this $20K level and that looks a lot more negative than positive. Still, she has the speed and should have no problem with the distance. Nevin is 4 of 9 dropping from MSW to MCL and 28% off the layoff. Proceed with some caution. Phocea is something of a stab in a very weak field. Her first start was on the turf and she has very little turf breeding. Her second race was on a muddy SAR track and she didn’t do much after a troubled start. She takes the blinkers off and catches a fast track today. She’s actually got a couple of pretty good works. At 20-1 ML she’ll probably get my win bet. Kayleigh’s Road cuts back to the sprint distance after a few mediocre routes. Looks more suited for the MCL level.

Race 2      3-5-2

Mid Ocean was clearly over his head in the Travers after breaking his maiden impressively at DEL. He looked pretty good dropping back to a mile at the $50K starter level and actually may be best at today’s distance. Shadow Rider looked good breaking his maiden a couple of weeks ago and has every right to take two in a row. Bird Prince improved a little when stretched out and would be no surprise in the winner’s circle.

Race 3      6-3-4

Pirellone just missed in a MSW upstate. Looks like by far the best speed and owns a field dominating figure. Seat of Honor didn’t show a lot first out, but gets Lasix today. Should improve on the stretch out. Patrick’s Day failed as the favorite last out but should improve today. Pletcher/Castellano always a dangerous combo.

Race 4       9-4-11

Shoot the Moon looks like another in the Michelle Nevin clearance sale. The 3 year old filly  ran a good third in May, showing nice front-running ability, but laid off until this race. Works look like she’s prepped and  Nevin has a high percentage  with returnees off the layoff. She’s Gifted has run into two off tracks but has showed some talent. Last two workouts look good. Given this is about as bad a field as I could imagine, the 0 for 13 with six thirds Yourcreditisgood probably has her best chance.

Race 5      1/1A-4-2

Because Irad is named on both horses, one will be scratched. However, both look strong in this race. Riviere du Loup has two seconds, a third and a close fourth since coming to America. He’s in the right class and may do better with the curback in distance. Boss Man just missed at this level in his last and has competitive figures. Defining Product has plenty of speed and should thrive at seven furlongs. Artie Crasher has done well at BEL and drops down from his last. Goes second off the claim for Reynolds who is having a respectable 2015.

Race 6      7-4-2

Kodiva ran a good one first in America after showing some talent in Britain. That race represented a new top for her and she gets a good switch to Cornelio Velasquez for this run. Fourstar Crook goes for the powerful combo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. Was moving well late in her last and really improved her final time. On the Trail ran her best race in an off-the-turf affair, but still may be better meant on the turf. May be coming to hand for McGaughey.

Race 7      4-6-3

Ross J. Dawg was overlooked in his first with winners but won’t be overlooked here. Was a winner at this distance first time out and looks like an improving three year old that is finally maturing. Frisky Magician should show the way in this race and should have no problem with the seven furlong trip. Enjoy the show fits better at the SA level and should be the one closing best in the stretch.

Race 8      1-6-5

Rumble Doll improved when the blinkers were added. Will need a clever ride from the one post since she’s going to have to come from off the pace but she’s as fast as anything in here. Strong Incentive just broke her maiden and tries a tough group of winners here. Improved when moved to the turf and should be one of those battling up front. Interesting to consider. Lady Kreesa is one for one at this distance on the turf and will have to be at her best against open company.

Race 9      3-9-10

Mystical Charm ran well in her maiden breaking win at MTH. That race may have actually been with slightly better and she’s come back with a strong work in prep for this race. Laura’s Patriot has been dropping in search of the second win. Has consistent figures and is competitive here. Puparee drops from the $40K level. Sole win came here at BEL.

I’m back, although I’m not sure how much I was missed. Picks are for on the turf and are prior to scratches.

Race 1      4-5-2

Malibu Charlie should be the pacesetter. He showed improvement when dropping down to the claiming level, finishing second in a race he perhaps should have won. Joel Rosario gave him a questionable ride, getting blocked in the stretch and having to swing out. Melville has some good races at BEL and ran well coming off a short layoff and should appreciate the cutback in distance. Boston Strong drops down from ALW NW1X. He has good figures, but will have to show more interest in the win.

Race 2      2-7-4

I liked Sanfiera in her last race but she was a disappointment. She certainly carries the top race figure, but you have to have some concern about a six year old mare that didn’t start until two months ago. One more chance for me. Jessica’s Ride showed a lot of speed in her last two races, the last one a solid third at this price level at BEL. Splendid Gold has been laboring at this level for a while, but the in-the-money finishes are enough to keep her in the mix here.

Race 3      2-1-6

Keep Bustin and Trail Walker look best in a very weak field, and at the ML odds suggest neither will be a bet in this race. Da Wildcat Girl had a big year in 2014 but hasn’t cracked the winner’s circle this year. Still, she’s got a good record at BEL and the distance.

Race 4      11-8-3

My initial look at this race suggested more horses had a chance than didn’t, so keep that in mind. Pound Sterling is only making her third start. The last race she bobbled at the start rushed up with the leaders, faded but really didn’t lose lengths in the stretch. At the odds she’s worth a look. Written in Stars has been coming from off the pace. There isn’t a lot of speed to run at, but she has been consistently running in the stretch. Sky Gem ships from Woodbine for top trainer Mark Casse. Turf and distance breeding are very good.

Race 5      5-2-4

Theophilia is the short priced ML favorite and looks best, although the odds are too low to contemplate a win bet. She’s the front speed and will have to be caught. Two Taps looks very competitive in here and should be coming at Theophilia in the stretch. Fast Retailing is coming off a short break after losing her maiden status at SAR. She was a million dollar yearling purchase and has been working well for the return.

Race 6      9-6-10

Benny and Alex looked good in his first start at MTH but flopped in the mud at BEL. He puts the blinkers on, drops down to the MCL level and and gets Irad for this trip. Rooftop View is another dropping from MSW and adding blinkers, and didn’t seem to care for the mud. Today should provide a fast track and we’ll see if that makes the difference. Carysfort Reef ran into a monster first out. He couldn’t go with that one but should have a much easier field to deal with today.

Race 7      6-9-2-3

Gotachancetodance hasn’t been worse than second in her last four. Pletcher and Saez make her competitive. Runner Runner made a big close in her U.S. debut and ran a lifetime best in that race. Have to like the chances here. Achnaha gets a jockey switch to Manny Franco and he is a solid 21% in partnership with Weaver. Coming off a short rest and she has run well off that layoff before. Rock Me Again has showed a lot of speed in her races and ran a lifetime top last out.

Race 8      2-5-1

Here’s Zealicious wins better than a third of her races, although lately she’s been pretty ordinary. Last race was encouraging and there has been at least one eye-catching workout since. Scat Away just missed last time out on a muddy BEL surface. She’s two of three in the money at BEL and has a win and a second at the distance. Rub a Dubb Dubb is looking for three in a row and jumps up significantly today. Still the numbers seem to say she is competitive with this group.

Race 9      4-7-11

First Bid stretches out but drops in price looking for the win. Should be in the scrum at the front of the pack. Moe Man is coming second off a short layoff and his last race showed good improvement. Englehart is usually good with horses he’s claimed. Drops down to his lowest level in a while. Golden Itiz has been strongest at BEL and is another dropping down in search of victory.