Race 1

• 3  Honor River  5/2

• 5 Star Empire  3-1

• 4  Fuhrlong  2-1

Honor River sold for 13 times the stud fee. Mark Casse is good with 2 YOs. Breeding says he should relish the distance. Star Empire goes for Wesley Ward who is 24% with debuting 2 YOs. Furlong has two starts and two seconds. He could be by far the best, or a horse struggling to become a winner.

Race 2

• 3  Readthebyline  8/5

• 6  Onecats Chance  3-1

• 2  Hunt’s Road  7/2

Readthebyline is no win machine, but did just win one at this price. Has been successful at BEL and the distance. Onecats Chance is another that doesn’t have a high win percentage, but is dropping today and that may be enough to propel him forward. Hunt’s Road was claimed last out by RuRod. He’s been with better in the recent past and does seem to have a more reliable win percentage.

Race 3

• 3  The Great Whiteway  2-1

• 5  Prospectus  5-2

• 4  Daggerpoint  4-1

The Great Whiteway is one of the horses that figures to be near the front and has the best figures of the group. Prospectus was TC nominated and makes a big drop for Pletcher. This is usually a sign that he is just thinning out the stable, and if the horse is in condition he’ll be a reliable bet. Daggerpoint has a race at BEL and while he figures slightly behind the top two, has some potential in the verticals.

Race 4

• 3  Tracking Stock  3-1

• 11  End Play  7/2

• 5  Big Platinum.  4-1

• 7  Finalize  6-1

Tracking Stock drops back to $40K after running decently in a  MSW at GP. Chad Brown trainee has a second at BEL and a top last race figure. End Play has to overcome the far outside post, but he has plenty of backstretch to find a good attacking spot. Last time he was in a MCL he nearly won. Should appreciate the cutback in distance. Big Platinum dropped down to a MCL last out that got moved off the turf to a sloppy main track. Should appreciate the return to the grass and the cutback in distance. Finalize barely missed in his first race last year. Could be any sort.

Race 5

• 5  Outzap  5/2

• 9  Don’t Blame Her  3-1

• 3  Wild Street Girl  4-1

• 2  Moneybrook  9/2

Outzap drops in half after breaking her maiden for $35K. Should be the early speed and has the top last race figure. Don’t Blame Her has run well at BEL and gets a switch to Jose Ortiz today. Last race was her best by far. Wild Street Girl goes for the suddenly ice cold Abby Adsit. She already has a race with winners that was decent. Moneybrook ran decently in the mud and should get a surface more like the one she won on today. Interesting at the price.

Race 6

• 1  Love That Jazz  8/5

• 4  Bluegrass Prevails  2-1

• 6  In Condition  4-1

Love That Jazz was a state-bred stakes winner last year and ran well in his 2015 debut race. A return to his best 2 YO figure wins this race. Bluegrass Prevails has a ton of speed and has already been racing in 2016. Major threat to the top choice. In Condition had trouble at the break last out and was declared a nonstarter. Prior to that had shown good speed and a willingness to finish.

Race 7

• 10  Uncle Sigh  5/2

• 2  Slew’s Brew  7/2

• 9  Ocala Jim  9/2

• 6  Memories of Peter  5-1

Uncle Sigh really improved when moved to the turf last out and has by far the best last race figure. Slew’s Brew clearly didn’t care for the inner dirt but returned to form when moved back to the turf. Low-key trainer/jockey should ensure nice odds. Ocala Jim won his last at AQU and has had good success at BEL. Memories of Peter makes his 2016 debut on the BEL turf where he has run his best races.

Race 8

• 7  Vicki’s Dancer  2-1

• 3  Tahoe Tigress  3-1

• 4  Zippity Zoom  4-1

Vicki’s Dancer didn’t run her best race when moved to a stakes on the turf but prior to that impressively won a sprint at this level, Tahoe Tigress makes her 2016 debut at her lowest price in a long while. If she comes out running she’s got outs. Zippity Zoom should be the frontrunner here and Linda Rice is 24% off the short layoff.

Race 9

• 2  Dreamaker  9/5

• 5  Just the Zip  5/2

• 6  Certain Something  9/2

• 7  Completely Bonkers  9/2

Dreamaker has the top figure on the turf, although it came in a 5F sprint. Still, should have the speed to get a good spot on the rail and should have no issue with the 7 furlong distance. Just the Zip is better on the turf and should adapt fine to the sprint distance. Certain Something only has one race but showed a bit of speed on a track that was deadly to front speed. Could be the surprise here. Completely Bonkers makes his 2016 turf debut for Linda Rice who is 15% moving from dirt to turf. Note his best lifetime race came on this BEL turf.

I’m going to try something a little different for a while. In the last few days I’ve had a number of high priced horses that were one of my top of my three picks per race, including a $70 horse. I’ve long suggested that a major problem horseplayers have is that they can be too selection oriented. In other words, the highest probability horse is seen by some as THE winning horse or the horse to bet. I’ve consistently advised my followers to bet the overlay in the top three horses. I believe all of the three are contenders. Of course, the way I was giving out picks it was impossible to tell when I thought the top horse was a 4/5 shot and when I thought it was a 3-1 shot. I’m resolving that today. Now you will be able to tell whether I think the top choice is much the best or barely the choice. The odds I’m listing are the actual odds to win, meaning you decide when the horse reaches bettable odds. But as always, BET THE VALUE whether it is listed first, second, or third..

Race 1

• 5 Swell   2-1
• 1  Hey Bro  5/2
• 2  Wheels Up Now.  3-1

Swell is 2 of 4 at BEL and in his last five races hasn’t been worse than second. Hey Bro battled at this level the last two races and missed by slim margins both times. Love the Danny Gargan angle. Expensive purchase Wheels Up Now broke his maiden in fine fashion last out and cuts back in distance. Should do well at the shorter distance.

Race 2

• 4  McCorleot  4-1
• 6  Asscher  3-1
• 8  Special Risk 6-1
• 11  Fiesta   2-1

McCorleot is an Uncle Mo who seems to be the hot, new sire. She sold for four times her sire fee, and has a workout pattern I really like – fast first work and some good subsequent works. Asscher is very well bred for this distance and has the top two year old trainer in Todd Pletcher. Workout pattern is pedestrian, but that is Pletcher’s usual MO. Special Risk goes for RuRod who is 23% with first time two YOs. Fiesta looks to be the better of the Pletcher horses and gets the favorite’s nod if she draws in.

Race 3

• 4  Familyofroses   6/5
• 5  Live Love Laugh 2-1
• 2  Valkimqua  5/2

Familyofroses has only two wins in 24 starts, with 13 seconds and thirds. Has the best figures, although that’s been the case before. Live Love Laugh should be most of the early speed here and for that reason she has to be given a chance. Valkimqua has a tendency to finish in the money and could be used in the verticals here.

Race 4

• 11  Pleasure Cruise  3-1
• 5  Frostie Anne  7/2
• 3  Freckle de Freck  5-1
• 8 Irish Actor  6-1

Pleasure Cruise cuts back to six furlongs in her first race since last November. Returns at the same level she dropped to last year. Morrison is 2 for 9 with his returnees.  Frostie Anne drops out of MSW to the claiming level. Her one sprint on the turf she just missed. Freckle de Freck really improved first time on the turf and has a figure that should be competitive with this group. Irish Actor will have to come from off the pace. Does have a third over the BEL turf.

Race 5

• 1/1A  Red Creme/Whateveryouwant  5/2
• 5  Richie’s Rich  2-1
• 8  Galardonado  4-1

The entry of Red Creme and Whateveryouwant looks strong. Red Creme is riding a two race win streak including one at BEL two weeks ago. Whateveryouwant was snatched by Jacobson when dropped to $20K and actually may be the better of the two runners. 9 of 12 in the money. Richie’s Rich is one of a group of speed horses that should be in the early scrum. Is riding a three race win streak, and drops down to a new low price. May go favorite, but the drop seems more negative than positive. Galardonado won for $25K and was claimed by Steve Asmussen out of that race. He jumped up to $50K on a muddy BEL track and ran creditably. Certainly not out of the question.

Race 6

• 8  Ack Naughty  9/5
• 6  Take It Inside 3-1
• 7  Maura’s Pass  4-1
• 1  Jc’s Shooting Star  5-1

Ack Naughty hasn’t been worse than second lifetime and has successfully come back off a layoff. Clearly the top figure horse. Take It Inside showed good speed in her return from the layoff and should be all the speed here. Cutback in distance won’t hurt. Maura’s Pass has two wins in five tries at BEL and is 1 for 1 at the distance. Makes his 2016 debut for Jason Servis who is 22% off the layoff. Jc’s Shooting Star has a first and two seconds in four tries on the turf. Definitely figures in this group.

Race 7

• 3  Know It All Anna  3-1
• 5  Nuffsaid Nuffsaid  7/2
• 2 Scuba Sue  4-1

Know It All Anna already has a win at the meet and drops to the claiming ranks today. Perhaps a negative drop, but she has the best figures. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid won a stakes in the AQU mud last out for high percentage trainer Danny Gargan. Seems a little bit of an in-and-outer, but at her best is a prime contender. Scuba Sue has raced with better and on her best figures is right in the mix.

Race 8

• 4  Happyness  8/5
• 2 Queen’s Parade  5/2
• 1  Season Ticket  5-1

Happyness won impressively first time in the U.S. and should only improve today.  Queen’s Parade ran a big one first out of 2016 at AQU. Seems to have some trouble cracking the win slot, but always runs competitively. Season Ticket has been with better and has an outside shot today.

Race 9

• 5  Pegasus Storm  3-1
• 1  Broken Border  4-1
• 8  Flying K C  6-1

Pegasus Storm is the longshot play of the day. This race is not full of high quality runners, and this horse has some positives. First, she improved substantially when moved to the turf last out. Second, she gets a positive rider switch. Third, she’s cutting back distance. And finally she showed a little more interest overall last out. Broken Border has clearly the best turf numbers, but has had plenty of opportunity to win and seems unable to pass horses when it counts. If he wins, it wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m looking at the top choice for value. Flying K C is another that has had plenty of opportunity to win. Has shown some interest in finishing in the money, so I’ll give him potential in the verticals.

Race 1.     4-6-5

Pass the Dice is riding a two race win streak and was taken by Mike Miceli last out. Looks to be in top shape. Day of Fury had been racing with much better horses, dropped to $12500 last out and was grabbed by Jason Servis. He jumps him up to $25K. Likes BEL and is accomplished at the distance. Box Office flopped last out but was snagged by DJ. He’s still dangerous first off the claim.

Race 2.     1-3-7-6

Young Anna Lee didn’t disgrace herself in last year’s Lynbrook and ran creditably in her 2016 debut. Best figure of the starters. Empress Jingu goes first time for Pletcher/Castellano. Long workout pattern, but Pletcher usually has them ready to roll. Cat’s Halo has a good figure off his drop-down race but is back at the MSW level. Has  chances to be part of the verticals. Rubicon ran better than looked last out considering she ran into a dominant winner.

Race 3.     7-3-6

Classic Salsa has the best last out figure and takes a drop to a level at which he’s had prior success. Songsational ran well first time out in 2016 and Mott is pretty good 2nd off the layoff. Manhattan Mischief  is much better than his last looked and should appreciate the cutback in distance.

Race 4.     9-5-7

Cracking Good Pins rushed into contention last out, took the lead in the stretch but couldn’t hang on. Consistent numbers suggest she’s a contender. One Penny Piece goes third off the layoff for Phil Serpe and should run an improved race today. Bargaining Table never got into the last race but prior to that ran very competitively with this price level.

Race 5.     8-6-9

Call Me Stoney comes off the layoff for 23% Bruce Levine. If he’s in condition he’ll be dangerous. Gunlock finally broke his maiden and came right back to almost beat winners. Definite contender. Brolic just won his maiden and takes the best last race figure into this one.

Race 6.     1-9-2-5

Rediscover looks primed for Kieran McLaughlin and seems to have found the good life on the grass. Balls or came close to breaking his maiden last out at GP and may prompt the pace in a race with very little. War Bond lost a lot of chance when he broke slow last out. With a better break he’ll save ground from the one post and should improve his figure substantially. Sport was another who lost his chances at the break but still showed interest and finished full of run.

Race 7.     10-7-5

Brimstone lost by the slimmest of margins last time and fits this level well. Should be the one to catch. The Crocheron Kid ran well in a much higher class level for his 2016 debut; improvement expected. River Knight has been in the money regularly but can’t seem to get that second win. Still, has a big last race figure and seems better than his 10-1 ML.

Race 8.     6-1-3

Elnaawi should have had plenty of time to recover from his foray to Dubai and seems the classiest of the graded animals. His best figures overpower the field. Turbo Bravo won a restricted stake two back and wasn’t embarrassed in the G3 Excelsior. One of a few who has a successful race at the distance.  Neck ‘n Neck adds blinkers today and is a G3 winner. Good combination of speed and finish.

Race 9.     8-12-5

Madame Barbarian makes a substantial drop in price today. Figures suggest she should take care of this field. Antebellum improved when dropped to this level. Should be competitive today. Eqho adds Lasix today. Ran well first time out, not running too far behind Antebullum. Should appreciate the slight stretch out.

Race 1.     7-4-1

Crimson Cat ran well first out for Barclay Tagg and gets a positive switch to Castellano. Miss Aja Brown should be the speed here and looks more capable at the MCL level. Tiz Twice didn’t break smartly last out which was killing in a 5 furlong race. Very well bred for the distance and drops from MSW down to the claiming ranks. Give consideration at the odds.

Race 2.     4-8-6

Sunny Puzzle has plenty of speed and a tendency to finish in the money. Has run with much better in the recent past.  Giant Fox is dropping substantially in price today and at his best should handle this field. Has a win and two seconds in three tried at BEL, Fleeting fits the conditions and his figures say he is competitive.

Race 3.     6-5-4

Doctor Mounty adds the blinkers today. Looks well suited to the distance and the last work suggests he’ll be prompting the pace. Justalittlebitmore just missed last out and should do well with the stretch out. Louies Baby Boy broke poorly last out but worked to get into the race and expectedly faded. Should be competitive with a better break.

Race 4.     3-1-7-9

Proletariat should be the speed here. His last two showed some talent at this level. Clifton Pleasure has been knocking around at this level for a while, but has shown a tendency to finish in the money. Reasonable expectations today. Timber may have been a little over his head in the state-bred stakes last out but is in a better spot today. Should do fine on the stretch out. Hit It Once More just broke his maiden in his first out of 2016. Has shown a liking for the BEL dirt.

Race 5.     1-8-2

Royal Ekati goes first out for Barclay Tagg who is 21% with limited debut horses. Is very well bred for the sprint. Like the workout pattern. Frosti Agosti goes for Ray Handal, who is frankly pathetic at getting horses to win. But, the horse has speed and this isn’t the strongest field. Gorelli rarely runs a bad one but hasn’t cracked the top spot yet. Perhaps today is the day.

Race 6.     6-7-5

Western Reserve has been gelded since his last start, and he definitely fits in this group. Last two on the turf showed a lot of promise. Offering Plan managed to close into a average pace in the Hollywood Derby. Looks to be the classiest in the race and his figures as a 3YO dominate this group. With some improvement he a major contender. Weekend Express is overlooked on the ML. He fits the conditions and his figures suggest he has some outs.

Race 7.     6-1-3

Carrumba hasn’t been worse than second lifetime and on figures deserves to be the favorite. Cavorting has run well in graded stakes, winning 50% of her races overall. Likes BEL and should be strong at the distance. Spelling Again is another that has shown ability in graded stakes and could be part of the combinations.

Race 8.     1-3-8

Recepta is a grade one mare that has done well at BEL. Mixed success on a softer turf, so demand value before investing. Ball Dancing is the Chad Brown entrant. Broke poorly in the Hillsborough but in 2015 was strong. Has a win at BEL and has shown well on a yielding turf. My Miss Sophia is a Grade 1 placed mare making her 2016 debut. Has run well fresh and can handle the soft going.

Race 9.     7-3-5

Unified just won the Bay Shore impressively and came back with a nice series of works. Is very well bred for the stretch out. Adventist tried the NY Derby prep series but wasn’t good enough to make the big race. Still, they weren’t bad races and he’s a contender here. GovernorMalibu just won the Tesio and has run well at BEL. Longshot chances here.

Race 10.  7-9-5

Kaigun never seems to run a bad one and beat competitor Wake Forest recently in the G2 Pan American. Top figures make this one a contender. Wake Forest has struggled to get a Grade 1 win but is solid Grade 2 horse. Really improved under Chad Brown’s care and may turn the tables on the top choice.  Go Around is better than his 10-1 ML would suggest. Actually has a good combination of speed and finish and likes to win.

Race 11.  5-8-11

Majestic Bloom improved when moved off the inner and back onto the turf. Hillaryinthehouse ran well first out of 2016 and is 4 of 6 in the money at BEL. Amazing Anne is another that looked good first out of the year and improvement might make her the winner. I’m

Race 1.     1-5-3

Jet Black has 5 of 6 in the money finishes and should be the main speed here. Needs to show more interest in leading the pack. Wine Not adds blinkers and is back at the route distance today. Hasn’t run a poor race yet. Cold Gone Hot has a tough task going a mile at first asking, but the workout pattern is positive and Rice is decent with first timers.

Race 2.     5-2-10

Afleet Martini jumps up a little in price from his last, but has been competitive with more expensive horses previously. Has the best last out figure. Japhir was claimed last out by DJ  who is not the machine he once was first after the claim. Last race was an improvement. Congrats Kid should be battling up front early. Was well thought of last year – has a MSW loss to Mohaymen – but has failed as the favorite regularly since then. Still, has the talent and gets a switch to Castellano. Too Wild to Repent takes the blinkers off today. Has shown some speed and actually has a couple of place finishes.

Race 3.     5-4-2

Beating Heart Baby failed to get out cleanly last time on the turf but prior to that was competitive in state-bred races. May not be value, but has outs. Fast Retailing is a big favorite on the ML. Didn’t run well in the Comely and raced poorly in a NW1X, but prior to that showed some talent. Perhaps overvalued, but has chances in this field. Pushme Pullyou raced decently last time on the wrong surface. Prior to that was third in a stakes, Has competitive figures.

Race 4.     10-7-5

Nice Try makes a big drop for Bill Mott whose horses generally need a few races. The switch to the turf was a positive for him. Big jump in numbers, and with continued improvement, should be a big factor today. Money Illusion was nominated for the TC, but didn’t make it to the track until February. Chad Brown moves him to the turf today and drops down to maiden claimers. Gets the nod based on Brown’s success with turf runners. Hurricane Ramiro improved a bunch when moved to the turf and continued improvement puts him in the mix.

Race 5.     11-6-8

Storm Pursuit drops in half from his last, and the last time he was at this level he looked good. Englehart may be looking to move him out of his stable, but he looks as good as anything. Attractive Ride was claimed last out by Michael Pino, who is 24% with new arrivals. Figures say he is a contender. Hector’s Pride is a high early speed horse dropping way down in price. Is a danger to wire this field.

Race 6.     4-11-2

Wicked Fun ran well when moved to the BEL turf last year. That figure as a 2YO is very competitive for this race. Javier Castellano takes the ride and that is a positive. Church Social broke poorly last out but showed interest and made up a lot of lengths to only finish four lengths out. Conquest Lucknlove has showed a lot of speed in her last two outs and has far and a away the best last race figure.

Race 7.     1-5-8

Sympathy barely missed last out for Chad Brown. Should be hard to keep out this time. Ice Festival tried the blinkers last time and ran well, but takes them back off today. Last year she was a consistent runner at better levels and should be respected today. Bel Citron goes second time with winners and gets a new rider in Irad Ortiz. Should be driving late in this race.

Race 8.     1-11-6

Uncharted Course has two wins, two seconds and a third in his last five races. Should be setting the fractions and figures say he should be around at the end. True Bet is another who should be forwardly placed and on his best day he’s in the mix. Swell improved when moved over to state-breds. Another speedy sort who fits this group well.

Race 9.     6-7-12

Aripeka won his last out in a field best time. Goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan who is a solid 28% with new charges. Midnight Notes finished fourth to the winner last out and seems to be in a consistent pattern of figures. Dream Man has a high in the money record, and has a win and a place in four tries at BEL. Looks better than his 10-1 ML.

Race 1.     5-2-1

Fundamental looks to be the class of the field. He missed a length in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and ran two good ones in Florida over the winter. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz have had a great start to the meeting. Montclair won his 2016 debut at GP. He’s got a win at the distance and has been working steadily for his BEL debut. Street Fashion has run well at the distance and seems to be in good condition.

Race 2.     2-1-3

Indygo Tigress should be the speed in this race. No horse dominates on figures, but Indygo Tigress has run as well as any of these. Egyptian Rose has been competitive at this level. Throw out the last one since it was on the wrong surface and she figures right there. Game Girl should go off as the favorite on the strength of her opening race at this meet. She’s back on very short rest, and figures to be a main contender.

Race 3.     5-6-1

Evolution has good speed and should enjoy the cutback in distance. Took him a while to figure it out, but seems to have put it together. Cort is another speedster that has been popular at the claim box. Seems to have been working well in prep for this one. In Condition just broke his maiden and takes a big step up. Seems to be on the improve and this is not the strongest field.

Race 4.     1-7-5

True Desire ran well first time out and returns at the same price level today. Could use a slightly better break today to make sure she gets into the race early, but if she does, she should be the one to catch. Ask the Lonely drops out of MSW and that is probably the best thing in her favor. Has been off a long time but Nevin is not bad with returning horses. Porpentina showed a little bit a speed last out and goes for high percentage trainer Danny Gargan.

Race 5.     7-3-6

Roccia d’Oro is experienced at the distance and makes a smart drop in price to this spot. His best U.S. race was one at this level and his best lifetime figure tops this field. Araqeel hasn’t been the distance but fits in this price level and has Chad Brown working for him. Gold Shield seems to always run competitively and his last race on the turf showed big improvement.

Race 6.     6-2-1-5

Data Driven is well bred for the turf and while he is coming off a long layoff, Chad Brown is dynamite with horses coming off the bench. His turf race a year ago has a figure about as good as anything in here, so with a little improvement he’s definitiely in the mix. Country Money has some competitive figures. His last race was a clunker, but he never really broke well and was having to come from too far out. At 12-1 ML he’s got some interest. Rock Eagle was claimed by Ru Rod three back, and he jumps him up today. I think that looks like a positive move and his figures say he should be competitive here. Dynaformersrequest was gelded since he was last seen on the track and he fits in this price level.

Race 7.     3-4-2-8

Time for Angie is two for two at BEL and in his last 10 he’s won six and was only out of the money once. Has good tactical speed and competitive figures. Picture Day drops back to a more realistic level. Another that has shown success on the BEL dirt and should thrive at the distance.  Torcida was on the wrong surface at the wrong distance last out, but moving back to a dirt sprint should allow her to show her best. Just Got Out has been popular at the claim box and has been competitive lately. Last race was her best and a repeat puts her in the mix.

Race 8.     7-3-4-1

Conquest Superstar broke his maiden at first asking and takes a healthy jump up today. But this $725K purchase by this year’s hot sire, Uncle Mo, has tons of potential and we’ll see if he lies up to his breeding. Inspector Lynley finally broke his maiden and then promptly tried his hand with Grade 3 horses where he didn’t disgrace himself. Consistently good numbers. Cave Johnson didn’t race so well in the Palm Beach but after that made a respectable showing in a restricted stakes. Another with a  competitive number. Site Read and Ray’s the Bar have been racing with stakes horses and belong in this group.

Race 9.     9-10-3

Naked Empress improved when moved to the turf and gets a jockey upgrade to Johnny V. Munchkin Money goes first time for Chad Brown. Is well bred for the turf and the distance. Meatball Madness is another horse by Freud. Didn’t disgrace himself first time out. Broke well first time out and should be a forward factor today.

Race 1.     5-1-2

Conquest Prankster goes first time for Mark Casse who is decent with maiden debut horses. Last workout and breeding suggest he could be the speed here. Jegos Fire acted up at the gate last time and lost any chance to be a factor. The connections are low key, so the odds should be generous. Dr. Joy goes forChristopher Clement who is also decent with first timers. Very well bred for this short sprint.

Race 2.     8-4-6

Texas Tea should be the speed here and he adds blinkers to focus him better. At the right price level today. Swivel has been close in his last two but has been struggling overall. Very well bred for the mile. Saratoga Sight is going second time with winners and has competitive figures.

Race 3.     6-4-5

Know It All Anna makes her 2016 debut for Linda Rice who is 25% with these long layoff types. Has done well at BEL and has run well fresh before. Northern Screamer finished a good second in the Xtra Heat. 6 of 8 in the money lifetime. Skipalute has a win and a place in three starts at BEL and gets a trainer upgrade to John Kimmel.

Race 4.     1-11-3

Pinnacle Mountain made a big improvement in figure when moved to the turf. A repeat performance puts him in the mix. Ro  Bear had a couple of thirds on the turf last year, and the works look good for the return. Dream Doctor seems inclined to want to come from well off the pace, and there may not be enough speed here to set up a sustained late run. Tim Woolley is 25% off the long layoff with limited data.

Race 5.     4-2-3

Protection is a dismal 2 for 28 lifetime, but does have 10 other in the money finishes. Castellano takes the mount and that may make the difference. Spearhead has one superb turf race and has been gelded since his last start. Has decent speed as well. Park Ranger hasn’t been on the turf but on raw figures is almost as fast as the favorite. He’s coming off a big win and seems to be in top condition.

Race 6.     2-3-1

Indulgent goes first time for Kieran McLaughlin and the workouts indicate she may have some talent.  Deedeezee has one turf route on her resume, but she’s better bred for the dirt and Pletcher is 37% off the layoff and 25% moving from turf to dirt. Taurine is another firster for Christopher Clement. Seems well bred for the dirt and the sprint distance. Half to Capo Bastone who also was precocious.

Race 7.     6-9-8

Skill Not Luck is a bit of a flyer. He has one great turf race, and it was at BEL. Chad Brown has to be a big positive. Snake Oil Charlie has good figures on the turf, but is another that has a low win percentage. Another longshot that looks interesting. Captain Moss has not been on the turf in a while, but he is one for one on the BEL turf and should be winging in the front.

Race 8.     5-6-2-10

Storm Petrel has improved significantly since being moved to the turf. Her last race was as fast as anything in the race. Pletcher is strong 2nd off the layoff and at 12-1 has to be given a look. Elysea’s World ships to the U.S. after a one race career in Europe. Her maiden looks like it was a pretty good race and Chad Brown is very strong with Euro shippers. Finn’s Girl ran well in the PG Johnson last year, and that is one of the better races for 2YO turf fillies. Her debut had a figure that topped her 2015 best. Has good outs here. Hold Harmless ran really well in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride. She didn’t break well last out and I think you put a line through that race.

Race 9.     9-11-2

Southern Gentleman ran pretty well in a losing effort at this level last out, and was claimed by DiPrima who is decent first off the claim. We Did adds blinkers and drops out of a straight maiden. Could be the value play. Croke Park is another that drops from MSW   And off his best is competitive.

I usually take the day after Kentucky Derby off, but I did take a look at the Belmont card for Sunday. I may or may not play – I put a lot of time and effort into the Derby, maybe 50 hours or so researching pedigree, watching replays, and making calculations – and while you might argue it was pretty formful, I identified four “A” horses and three of them made up the trifecta. But that is the point of the hard work – to come up with the likely winners. It certainly can’t be helped that they didn’t happen to be Commanding Curve (I still firmly believe that horse was nowhere near good enough to finish second – a total fluke). But if there was a long price that had a chance to be in the verticals, I might have had it. As I often say, if the trifecta pays $173, the most you can collect on a winning trifecta ticket is $173. Every other combination is just a losing ticket. Here are the numbers for BEL for Sunday.

Race 1.     4-5-7

Race 2.     3-6-5

Race 3.     6-1-4

Race 4.     6-7-8

Race 5.     9-5-1

Race 6.     5-3-7

Race 7.     5-1-2

Race 8.     4-6-5

Race 9.     8-9-6

With apologies, just the numbers today. Selections for races 2 and 5 are for off the turf.

Race 1.     7-1-5

Race 2.     1A-5-8

Race 3.     7-1-2

Race 4.     5-6-2-1

Race 5.     15-4-6-8

Race 6.      9-1-3

Race 7.     5-10-9

Race 8.     3-1-5

Race 9.     1-7-6-3

Race 10.  8-9-6

Race 11.  4-1-6

Race 12.  8-3-1