Killing From the Inside Out

You are about to enter another dimension. A dimension not only of sight and sound, but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land of imagination. Next stop, the Twilight Zone!

If Rod Serling (no relation to Andy I think) were still alive even he might not have come up with what’s happening at Calder Race Course. I’m sure you’ve read the story. Gulfstream Park and the Stronach Group had leased stall space at the old Calder Race Course, but that space became “unavailable” as of January 1. Churchill Downs Inc., the owner of Calder, has plans to redevelop that area of the track, displacing about 600 horses. With nowhere to go, the horses were set up in a tent in one of the parking lots. According to most of the bivouacked horsemen, the conditions are less than ideal and it seems a matter of time before some sort of accident makes new headlines.

Everybody is angry about the situation, except perhaps CDI, horseracing’s apparent version of the Empire. One trainer said,

“It’s over, and everyone seems to be admitting that it’s over. We don’t have anywhere to go, except maybe the temporary stalls Gulfstream is building on a parking lot here.”

Then he asked to not be identified because of concern about possible retribution from Calder and CDI. Can you imagine fearing retribution for making a simple statement about the situation at Calder? As someone once reminded me, even paranoids have enemies.

In CDI’s defense, everyone knew the agreement for the stalls expired on December 31. The displaced horsemen were told by Gulfstream Park that negotiations with CDI were moving along and that it they would be able to stay longer. In fact, Gulfstream told the Florida HBPA that they had assurance the stalls would be available through spring. This was reinforced by the fact that CDI apparently had signed no contracts for the redevelopment of the backstretch area, although CDI hasn’t confirmed this. So while CDI is technically and legally in the right, there is still a sense that the December 31 deadline unnecessarily punishes a lot of small horsemen, not to mention 600 animals. Perhaps CDI is just firing another salvo in their long-time skirmish with Stronach, but I believe it is intolerable to be a party to what may amount to abuse of horses, and that for me is puts me on the opposite side from CDI in this dispute.

I know the first thing that went through my head. If these were children, there would be a lot of time-outs in their future. These problems are hardly unresolvable. Gulfstream Park seems to be willing to spend money to find space and build stalls somewhere else, so if CDI isn’t going to start construction until spring, there is no reason why the existing stalls at Calder can’t be used by these horsemen for another few months.

The Florida HBPA has talked about fighting back by simply squatting on the property, relying on the fact that no one wants to figure out how to move 600 horses to nowhere else, and by denying the simulcast signal to CDI tracks and their ADW, Twin Spires. Unfortunately such a move punishes the Florida Horsemen as much as CDI. It’s as petulant as CDI’s move and makes the horsemen no better than CDI.

There are three groups with a lot of unexercised  leverage: the owners, the trainers and the bettors. Owners and trainers are in a precarious position. If they boycott NYRA, CDI or Stronach tracks, they run the risk of losing their livelihood, not to mention incurring whatever wrath those tracks might have. Besides, getting trainers to act as one entity has rarely worked. If you remember when Buddy Jacobson organized backstretch workers and got them to go on strike for nine days, he won the battle, but found out his reward was being on the outside looking in for five years.

Bettors are even less likely to have an impact unless a great majority of them all move in lock-step. A boycott (related to raising the take) against CDI  has been tried, and while there has been a measurable impact, it has not been enough to change their behavior. I’m not sure we won that battle, much less the war.

The fact is that until owners like the Ramsey’s, the Papiese’s (Midwest Thoroughbreds), the Winchell’s and others work in concert with trainers like Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Jerry Hollendorfer, Steve Asmussen, Mark Casse and others, NYRA, CDI and Stronach will hardly feel obligated to listen. When bettors stop acting as solo entities they have the opportunity to impact the decisions of the big track owners.

Picking on the small horsemen that weren’t big enough or powerful enough to get space at Gulfstream hardly makes a ripple with racing’s 1%. While politicians often talk about “small business” being the backbone of the economy, the fact is that the only entities with power are the large or the organized. When it comes to racing, the large do well but there are hardly enough of the organized. Small owners and trainers are easily pushed around by the tracks. Small bettors are being squashed by excessive takeout and the whales. The sport, as I have mentioned before, doesn’t need to wait for the anti-horseracing groups to kill it. We’re doing a fine job of that without their help.

There is an old proverb that the longest journey begins with one step. I believe the time has come for each of us to take a step. For my part, I will not bet any CDI track, including the Kentucky Derby, or use Twin Spires until they start remembering the little guys are as much responsible for their success as the 1%. There are horses at Calder that need protection. Don’t let a petty squabble put them in jeopardy.

Aqueduct January 4

Only 355 days until Christmas. I can tell because last year’s decorations are still up.

Race 1       6-3-1

Oghma was claimed by Chris Englehart last may at Belmont, brought him to FL where he finished second in a $15K claimer. He’s the best speed in the race, but his figures are a little suspect. Horatio is an interesting horse. His top figures would win this race, but he hasn’t won since June. His last on the inner can be thrown out considering he was rank and wide all the way around the track. He’s the best late runner, so it may depend on how the track is playing. Political Farce was struggling with seconditis, then broke his maiden and won in his first try with winners. His last was on a sloppy inner, and although his only two wins were on the wet he never got into that race. He’s 0 for 13 on a fast dirt but has 7 seconds.

Race 2      2-8-5

Update: with the scratch of the 4  I’ll add the 5 Striking Impact. She has six starts and has shown some speed previously. She has a high wet track rating and Gyamati is 25% with horses debuting for her. 

Pop of Color took the lead in the slop at GPW and only missed by 1 1/2. He’s got a bullet on the BEL training track and if the track comes up soupy he could be splashing wire to wire. I still have a good feeling about Relax in this spot. He has a race over the inner and was really not in a good spot at any point in the race. James Jerkens is not at all successful with second out maidens, so this might be a stretch. His figure is about the same as the 2 and the odds differential may be tough to pass up. Cat Ten is making hier sixth start and although she has been competitive, I’ll look at one of the second start maidens to fill the win slot.

Race 3      3-4-2

None of the 5 horses is without a chance in this field. In all honesty I settled on the 3 in the win slot but couldn’t separate the 2, 4 and 5. Stormalina broke her maiden on the AQU main in the mud in a splended time. She has a strong series of works since Thanksgiving including a bullet 2 days ago. RuRod has been ice cold, except in stakes races. On the down side, no other horse has come out of that November 7 race to win. But if she goes off near her ML odds she may be worth a look. Noble and Beauty also ran a strong wire to wire race at AQU. Three good works since her last should have her on edge. Paulasilverlining has been in two straigh graded stakes, winning the Matron at BEL. She’ll almost certainly be the favorite and if the track is playing fair she’ll be the one running at the leaders.

Race 4      3-5-6

Update: with the scratches of both halves of the 2 entry, the 6 Jigsaw moves into the top three. He’s got two wins in three chances on the wet track and is dropping substantially in price to go in this race. A good pressing style should help today.

Goodtolook was claimed last out for $20K, a price as low as he’s seen. He finished second to Be Bullish in that race, and Be Bullish came back yesterday to beat a pretty good field. That race was in the slop and if the track is similar today his chances go up. Moonluck is the stronger of the two entry-mates, but if Jacobson scratches Moonluck I’ll still use Midnight Taboo. Moonluck is by far the fastest in the race, and is 1 for 1 on the wet. Tizmas is 4 for 8 at the distance and 1 for 3 on the inner. He has superior breeding for the mud.

Race 5      3-7-6

Papous Mia Bella was squeezed at the start in her maiden race and never got into the race in her second out. Her initial figure is plenty good enough to win the race and at 12-1 she an attractive proposition. Naipaul Chatterpaul is a middling trainer, but he’s had the horse since the start and does cut her price in half. Bella Forever just missed two back and last out ran into a monster in Time for Harlan. Should be better suited for the mile. Dance for Joe is another that drops in half for Schettino. She wasn’t pushed in her last event but should be up to the task today.

Race 6      2-7-6

In Kelly’s Defense is a win type. She was claimed by RuRod and won first off the claim, jumped up slightly in price and onlymissed by 3/4 to my Donna Jean. She’s back at the lower level and despite the fact that RuRod is colder than the temperature in Denver, the horse tries pretty much every out.  Liberty Fuze makes a nose dive in price but has the figures to be a factor here. Inaflash was claimed by Danny Gargan and is moved up slightly in price, a good sign. Gargan is 2 for 10 first off the claim.

Race 7      4-7-2

Jazzminegem has a first and a third on the inner and is running second off an 8 month layoff. Linda Rice has not been having a great winter meet, but her in the money percentage is 50%. Her first back off that long layoff she ran a closing third, although she’s shown a pressing style previously. Is the ML favorite, has the ridiculously hot Jose Ortiz and isn’t likely to go off at value odds, but looks strong. Zippity Zoom is the other Rice trainee. She broke her maiden last out on the inner after a strong drive and looks good for a repeat. Verismilitude is coming off a claim by Charlton Baker who is 2 for 5 lately first off the claim. Pressed a hard pace and missed by two and a quarter to Rock N Cozy. The latter horse has two seconds in a row, but only two wins in 32 starts. She does however have 9 place and 9 show finishes, so while I’m discounting her in the win slot she has a lot of potential in the back holes.

Race 8      4-7-6

Update: With the scratch of the 8 I’ll move 7 Seal Team Four into the top three. He took the lead in the slop last out and should be the leader again today. Will have to be caught so we’ll see how if the track favors his style.

This is a very competitive race and coming up with a winner was tough. I settled on Groomedforvictory. The old campaigner is 35 for 54 in the money. He’s 2 for 8 on the inner and his two victories in November were very fast. Was claimed two back by Joe Imperio who brought him back at a $20K starter allowance in the mud where he finished fourth. A return to the previous form puts him on top. joe Mooch faltered last out when wide at 6 furlongs. Seems better suited for the two turns. Five Freedoms is one out of two on the inner and is probably the best of the closing types. Had a great 2014 despite spending most of his time at FL. At 20-1, why not take a look. 

Race 9      1-2-7

Stickler will vie with Alliteration for favoritism. Stickler has three bullets in a row, McLaughlin is 21% first time, and Irad takes the ride. Alliteration is the Chad Brown trainee. She also has a good workout pattern and gets the other Ortiz. Should be a stirring stretch duel. Smart Alex is a second time starter who fought with the winner through a half after breaking a beat behind and having to rush to the front. That is always a death move and with a better break could be the winner if the two first timers don’t live up to their billing.

Aqueduct January 3

It looks like another tough card with a lot of competitive races.

Race 1

I say this far too much, but this is about as bad a race as any track could assemble.

  • 3 Oohlala – has the best dirt figures in the field, but does not look unbeatable. Puts the blinkers on for Tony Dutrow, Last out she lost all chance at the break but still managed to close lengths to finish 4th. Best race was on a sloppy track at this distance.
  • 2 Truly Possible – plodder puts the the blinkers on today and perhaps that will bring out some speed. Simply the second best of a truly dismal bunch.
  • 4 Wesdrewmax – May inherit the lead in a group where no horse has a 1 anywhere in her past performance. That’s enough to give her a nod.

Race 2

  • 1 Mop Head – Claimed by Grusmark last out for $25K and d rops to half that price today. He won his last despite getting bumped out of the gate in a pretty good time for this class. Given that race was a month and a half ago I’d like to have seen more than one mediocre work almost four weeks ago. He’ll likely be overbet today, but has a  legitimate shot.
  • 4 Say Mr. Sandman – Englehart brings the horse back to AQU after a quick trip upstate to FL. Half of his inner dirt starts have been in the money. Is essentially moving up in price since most of his previous starts have been with state breds, but his figures say competitive. Trainer is 23% off the layoff.
  • 5 Western Tryst – With the scratch of Island Sunset this RuRod trainee may be right on the lead. He won a statebred NW1X on the inner last season and shifted to the turf for the summer. He switched back to the dirt and caught two wet tracks, a surface that doen’t bring out his best. RuRod has to break out of the slump eventually.

Race 3

  • 6 Abra – looks to be far and away the speed in this field, although in his last he never really got int the race. Was good on the inner last season. Drops his tag in half and that should help him on the front end.
  • 7 Night Patrol – Ran a fair race in the slop last out. Won at $25K as recently as October 30. Jumped up to a $25K starter allowance but given the slop and the fact that it was second off a layoff, the fair effort can be excused. Has four of nine wins lifetime and Jose Ortiz solidifies his case.
  • 1 Bemata – Jacobson trainee finished a good second first off the claim  but last out never got going and finished well back. Return to his last AQU race puts him in the mix.

Race 4

  • 6 Regal Strike – Charles Cannon has had only one other AQU starter and that was a winner. He’s an 11% trainer overall mainly on the NJ/PA circuit. Certainly fits the level and has raced with better in 2014. A couple of December workouts should have him ready.
  • 1 Artemus Paperboy – three wins in a row, the last at a distance he hadn’t been. Comes back at the route today. Should be in the same tracking position. Jacobson seems to keep his runners in shape, but not all of them can come back in 8 days. Still, you ignore him at your own peril.
  • 4 Le Deluge – will be coming in the stretch. Patrick Quick is a very low profile trainer but he picked this one up from Jacobson, who in turn picked the horse up from Chad Brown. It’s possible the horse won’t revert to previous form under Quick’s care, but if he does he’s competitive.

Race 5

  • 2 The Spotted Wonder – scratched out of a race yesterday to go in this one. Has been the distance once before, although on a sloppy track. A bit concerning that he hasn’t won in seven starts this year but has been close enough to give him a nod here.
  • 6 Futurazo – one of the pressers in this field but should have no issue with the distance. Had 15 starts in 2014 which is quite a few, but has been off a month so should be ready to roll.
  • 9 Hidden Warrior – Fleet footed runner is one of a few who should contest the lead. Ran a good one at this level last out. Took until his seventh start to break his maiden, mainly because he is a little sketchy in the stretch. The stretch to the mile and a sixteenth is of concern, but he has been competitive all year.

Race 6

This is another tough early season three year old race. My top three selections are 6-1-5. Instructor Kuno has three figures that are better than any other figure in the race. Calvin Borel comes in to ride and despite the fact he is not the rider he once was that is a positive sign. Money Multiplier is a first time starter for Chad Brown. Brown and Carmouche are an amazing 58% as a team. Lookin At Lucky has been strong with first timers as a new sire. The workout patter is solid and the last work is impressive. On Tap is one of the second time starters. He ran well going half a furlong farther last out and while he is ultimately more suited to the route, the last race should have given him some necessary experience. There are some other horses that could be considered. Balfe’s Corner has been working well for Contessa, although he is only 8% with first timers. May be better suited for the route down the road. Little Love is a Linda Rice first timer with a lot of stamina building works. Sold for six times his stud fee. Would be a lot more dangerous on a wet track. Madroos adds blinkers today after improving in his second start. Upset minded for Kieran McLaughlin.

Race 7

Update: the scratches of the 7 and 1 change the race for me. Both those horses figured to be in the battle up front, Their absence will give an advantage to Be Bullish and The Big Deluxe and may take away the advantage Mine Over Matter had if a speed duel developed. This race just became a lot less discernible. I’ll stay with Laila’s Jazz and perhas go deeper if I play the horizontals.

  • 7 Leroy Jr. – Chad Brown and Franco team up for this race. Seems to enjoy the fast dirt. Nice series of workouts in December and competitive figures. Lots of speed to contend with and that may compromise his chances.
  • 6 Laila’s Jazz – was involved in the unfortunate accident in his last race but apparently has come out of it in good shape given the quick work on December 26. Had a good 2014 and has a win on the inner.
  • 10 Mine Over Matter – Always hard to trust a plodder, but other than his last has been running in nothing but stakes races. Mike Hushion gets Irad to take the ride and considering he only had two races this year certainly has room for improvement.

Race 8

  • 9 El Kabeir – Three straight graded stakes, the last a win the Kentucky Juvenile. Calvin Borel takes the mount off his winning ride in that race. Nice set of works in December and should be ready for this one. The outside post shouldn’t be of much concern – he should sprint to the front.
  • 7 Akeret – tries a route for the first time off a really quick sprint victory at Parx. RuRod has been ice cold lately but he and Irad are 24%. Maybe better suited for the sprint but worth taking a shot today.
  • 4 Ostrolenka – faltered badly in the Remsen but prior to that was strong in state-bred races. Gets a big test today but with Pletcher and the red-hot Jose Ortiz he’s in the mix.

Race 9

  • 1 Ghost Ship – first out should have been a good learning race. Tracked in 4th, didn’t pass any horses, but didn’t get passed either. By far the fastest figure of the horses that have started.
  • 7 Yourthekingjimmy – first time starter for Shettino who is a fair 17% with firsters. Love the workout pattern. A fast work early in the sequence, and a fast work last time with some stamina building in between. Irad Ortiz takes the ride.
  • 6 Private Thrill – showed a lot of early foot first time out. That race was on the mud, and he really doesn’t have great wet track breeding, but he was right on the pace to the stretch and faded a little over six lengths. A little bit of improvement and a fast track make him a contender in this race.

Aqueduct January 2

The races have been difficult to bet this week. Fairly full fields, but a lot of races where the favorite looked strong and ran up the track. Rudy Rodriguez has been ice cold, David Jacobson not much better. Eddie Kenneally has brought some horses to NY that have been live. Richard Schosberg has been doing well. Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown have left a few horses in NY with decent success (and no odds). For the time being until RuRod and Jacobson find their form I’ll discount them.

Race 1

  • 1 Glenbrook – most of the speed in the race. Dropped to $25K last out on the inner and ran a good third, although she lost a few lengths in the stretch. If she isn’t heartless she should be hard to catch.
  • 4 Home to Carrowkeel – started her career on the turf despite not being well bred for the turf. Last race she pressed the early pace as the favorite in the mud but backed up after a half. Nevin has done well on the inner this winter. I’ll bank that she’ll like a fast track more than the mud.
  • 6 Agate – Second off a long layoff for Donk who hasn’t quite gotten into stride this winter. She’s taking another drop but ran some decent figures last spring. Should be a decent value and worth watching.

Race 2

  • 7 Thug Daddy – ran his best race when dropped to this level and moved to the inner, and adds blinkers today. In a race where too many of the horses are headed for professional maiden status he still has some up side. The suddenly invincible Jose Ortiz rides.
  • 1 Cee No More – Takes a 50% drop in price today. Not well bred for the turf and his starts on that surface show it. Last time he was on the good dirt at this distance he ran a strong second. Better prospects than his last three showed.
  • 4 Robert Noble – Claimed by Karl Grusmark two back. Jumped up to $25K last out but dropped to the claiming price he was taken at today. Should be contesting the early pace and his last gives him some experience on the inner.

Race 3

  • 3 Majestic Affair – maiden winner at Canterbury shipped to SAR for the Saratoga Special where he showed a little bit of early interest but faded to last. He returned in an allowance at Parx and won after a strong drive. That was a positive enough effort that Chad Brown placed him in the Lewis at Laurel where he finished a strong second. He looks fast enough and versatile enough to handle this field. He’s getting better with each race.
  • 2 Ship Disturber – wired a field at AQU a month ago in easy fashion. Has every reason to improve today.

Race 4

  • 4 Lil’ Zilla – Just broke her maiden last out for $25K in a good time. Should be close to the front. Change to the inner seemed to be the tonic she needed.
  • 5 Bella Fachi – In and out filly puts blinkers on today and should be coming in the stretch. At the right level.
  • 7 Flirtatious Spring – most of her races have been on the turf. The 1 for 25 record does not inspire confidence but she has only 3 starts on a fast track. If she likes the surface may forget to hang in the stretch.

Race 5

  •  3 Taylor Jagger – last out was his first at a route in six months and it came on a muddy track on the inner. I’m looking for improvement with that race on his resume and Irad staying for the ride.
  • 1 Star of the Forest – has been racing out west – Finger Lakes, Fort Erie and Woodbine. Didn’t have a bad 2014 and has the figures to compete.
  • 2 Rock Show – pressed and ran second at this distance (less 70 yards)  on the inner last out in the mud.  Low profile traner not inspiring but is placed right today.

Race 6      10-4-7

Really tough 2 year old affair. I’m going with Call Me Stoney as the top pick based on his experience and his first race on the inner. First timer True Bet gets the second slot based on the solid first-out percentage of the sire and the trainer, and a workout pattern I like. I’ll put Deficit Hawk in third slot. Violette has been uncanny with first timers and this one has been working well. The other horses with prospects are One Sided. He is trained by Pletcher and has been working steadily at the Palm Beach Downs training facility. Andrew’s Got Zip is the other with experience and Schosberg has had his horses ready to run lately. Pioneeringforgold is up against it from the outside post but Levine is good with firsters and the workout pattern is positive.

Race 7

  • 9 My Place – claimed by Michelle Nevin last out and she brings her back at the same level. Nevin is 28% with first off the claim. Drops back a furlong for this start.
  • 6 Pura Vida Zen – leapt up at the start and that is fatal at five and a half. Another Schosberg trainee. 12 for 38 lifetime record says she is a hard trying mare.
  • 1a My Tee Time – Jacobson claim looking for two in a row. Jumps this one up and that may be a good sign.

Race 8

  • 8 True Romance – Impressive maiden winner at BEL and only missed by 3/4 in the Safely Kept. Franco gets the ride for Timothy Hills.
  • 6 Blithely – Faltered at a mile last out but before that had won two in a row at 6 furlongsTalented horse with competitive figures.
  • 5 Killaday – coming in off a long layoff for Shettino. Has two starts on the inner both fast. Shettino is 1 for 3 for off the long layoff.

Race 9

  • 3 March Too – Drops way down in class for Kenneally and has the best figures. Should be in a good pressing spot and the unstoppable Jose Ortiz gets the ride.
  • 4 Island Therapy – 12-1 ML shot had been turfing most of the year and ran into a muddy track first time on the dirt in a while. With improvement he is competitive in this group.
  • 8 Ke In Motion – the best speed in the race and competitive figures. Takes the blinkers off today. Esler is 2 of 6 with that move. Is one of one lifetime on the inner.

Aqueduct January 1, 2015

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone. Hope you all have a healthy and prosperous 2015.

Tough card to start the year. Not a lot I am really excited about, but we’ll see how some of the longshot selections pan out.

Race 1

  • 5 Gabby’s Brown – Drops from $50K and puts the shades on for RuRod. Has already had a race on the inner where she showed the way for half a mile. The cut back in distance and switch to Irad helps her cause.
  • 1 Your Turn – ran decently in the mud on the inner when finishing third behind Coral Beach. Mott is well known for his horses needing a race or two, and she definitely improved last out. One more jump puts her in the mix.
  • 2 Coral Beach – Pletcher was looking to get rid of her last out but found no takers so he’s making another try. She ran well while racing wide and just couldn’t get by Rosa Carina. Looks like any of the three could be the winner.

Race 2

  • 7 Breach of Duty – Broke her maiden at a mile and came back at Parx in a NW1X where she never was a threat. Back in the claiming ranks and will be competitive if she runs back to her maiden figure. Having Chad Brown and Irad is a plus considering the combo is 26% and a positive ROI overall.
  • 5 Noon Sermon – dominated a maiden $40K field in the mud but that was two months ago. Has a good set of works in December for the return.
  • 3 Slam Chowder – another that ran away from a maiden $40K field but at 5 1/2 furlongs on the inner. Eddie Kenneally has been live this meet.

Race 3       The Affectionately

This looks like a competiive race. The 1 entry doesn’t look like either has a decent probability of winning. While America didn’t make my top three, she did just win one the inner and on a muddy main track at AQU. She’s in good condition and does have Bill Mott on her side so she wouldn’t be a surprise. Moment in Dixie is the other logical contender. She is listed at 7/2 on the ML and although she doesn’t have a win this year, she has been running in graded events. If any of the selections falters she could be in the mix.

  • 7 Belle Gallantey – made a try in the BC Distaff and only beat two, but before that won the Beldame and the Delaware ‘Cap. Looks to be the class of the field and is far and away the biggest earner. Decent record on the inner and half her lifetime wins came in 2014. Is one of the speedier horses in the race, and should be in a good spot turning for home.
  • 3 Shayjolie – finished second in the Comely. Should prefer the cutback in distance. Except for a race on the turf, she’s run consistent figures all year. Another that should be up near the front and running in the stretch.
  • 2/2b Penwith/Divided Attention – duo obtained favoritism in the Comely but finished a disappointing 4th/6th. Penwith should be up toward the front while Divided Attention should be pressing. Both of them have figures in their PP’s that would win this race and are certainly talented enough to win it.

Race 4

With the scratch of Bad to the Roan I’ll move Risk the Moon up to the second choice. Leatherhead Lurie managed a second last out and Little T. Louie was slightly behind after pushing the pace. Neither one has been particularly inspiring, but in this field they are not without chances.

  • 3 Awesome Lute – dropped from a MSW to this level last out and ran a good second. That race gives him the best last race figure. A couple of December workouts should have him ready to roll.
  • 9 Bad to the Road – finished behind the 1 in his last race but was right on the leader the whole way. The negative is that he is on the far outside and will have to work hard to get to the front. Possibly working on getting his professional maiden degree.
  • 5 Risk the Moon – only his third start, but showed a bit more interest than in his first start. This is not a high grade field, and at 30-1 might be worth a flyer.

Race 5

  • 3 Ginny’s Grey – claimed by Danny Gargan at SAR in August. He thought about trying her on the turf but was washed off once at BEL and once at AQU. She won the BEL race, and ran a decent third to Agawa, a horse entered in today’s Affectionately, at AQU. She has a nice pressing style and a competitive figure. One decent maintenance work 10 days ago.
  • 7 Wavell Avenue – has a good turn of speed and the combination of Chad Brown and Irad on his side. Won a sprint at AQU and moves to the route. He’s already wired a field at a mile and a 16th so today’s distance should be no problem. Heavy favorite on the ML. Has a lot of upside.
  • 5 Bounty Pink – five wins in ten starts including the last four in a row. Steps up a bit in price, but that is a good sign. Has a win and a third on the inner and has been improving each time. Gotta like horses that try hard each time.

Race 6

  • 7 First Sensation – Couldn’t handle a $16K starter allowance last out but the time before that beat a $16K NW3 claiming group. Pablo Fragoso is back to ride at AQU. Has competitive figures.
  • 9 Mama Zee – RuRod runner has a good turn of speed but has faltered as the favorite in her last two at this level and distance. Still, her figures are competitive and she has a lot of back class. Irad takes the mount back and the Rodriguez/Ortiz combo hits at 24%
  • 1 Concealed – Luis Miranda is not a first rate trainer, but half of his wins come from this horse. Lots of natural speed but will have to contend with Blue Ballerina to her outside. Still, has wired against much better than these and has 4 of 6 in the money on the inner.

Race 7

With the scratch of The Spotted Wonder that moves Sean and Matt into the top three. He wired a field as recently as September and hasn’t run badly in his subsequent two $50K starter allowances.

  •  6 Peaceful Talk – had been racing on the turf most of the year but moved to the AQU main and and ran well into the deep stretch . Given that was his first start on the main six months, improvement is possible. Has experience on the innerand has gotten beter since then.
  • 2 The Spotted Wonder – ran well on two sloppy tracks then just missed on a fast track last out. Has the best last race figure and a couple of December maintenance works. Franco stays for the ride and while Leo O’Brien isn’t the trainer he once was, he is still a good horseman.
  • 3 Von Frassen – Jacobson looks to repeat as New York’s leading trainer in 2015 and is hoping it starts here. Ran third on the inner last out. Should improve this time out.

Race 8

With the scratches of the 3, 5, and 10 the race takes on a different flavor. Spinit to Winit is only 2 for 17 but has 7 seconds so she moves into contention

  • 4 La Bella Valeria – hasn’t finished worse than second this year including a win at 5 1/2 on the inner last time. Figures top the field and should be one of the horses winging on the lead.
  • 7 Shea Darby – is the interesting horse. Won two races on the inner at AQU last year (2014) and came out in the mud a month ago, pressing the pace for a half and fading to fourth in the stretch. Given the scratches she won’t go off at 12-1, but she should be decent odds.
  • 3 Elmra – Is well suited for the 6 furlong distance with a win and a place lifetime. Faltered last out in the mud but has shown stretch courage in the past on a fast track, including just missing on the inner in her debut race. Last race figure very competitive.

Race 9

  • 7 Jules N Rome – best dirt figure off her debut race, and looked good running second on a sloppy track last out. Two nice December workouts in prep for this.
  • 5 Broken Border – Broke poorly last race but made a steady close to finish second. Switches from the turf to dirt today, given the breeding she should adapt well.
  • 2 Stolen Victory – has been close in her last three. Lost two back to Endonahighnote, but improved in her race after that one so she’ll get the final slot today.