Monthly Archives: August 2014

Opinions

Monmouth Park Is Not the Same

I visited Monmouth Park this past Sunday. It’s a place I’ve enjoyed on many occasions. Unfortunately, Sunday turned out to be memorable for a different reason.

I had one personal irritation that turned out to be related to the larger issue. For some reason people were smoking both inside the plant and in the grandstand. At first I figured it was just a manifestation of the addictive grip smoking has, but then it occurred to me that this wasn’t just isolated behavior, it was a consistent reflection of the fact that track management wasn’t paying close attention to the fan experience. It wasn’t simply about people being inconsiderate, it was about nobody on either side caring enough to worry about it.

To be fair, as far as I can tell NJ law bans any indoor smoking, but doesn’t clamp down on outdoor smoking, so it would seem that the smoking in the outdoor grandstand was not banned, although to be precise outdoor in this case meant having a roof with no windows. Certainly there were no signs that would have indicated smoking was disallowed. There could have been no mistake that smoking inside was not allowed, and it appeared that the impunity of the scofflaws was a reflection of the fact that there wasn’t much of an employee presence throughout the facility.

The problem with smoking in the outdoor grandstand was twofold. Obviously if you were in the vicinity of the smokers, of which there were more than a few, you got your dose of second hand smoke. The other issue was that some of the windows in the indoor grandstand area were open and the smoke was just drifting in. It mostly seemed like a bad set-up if you wanted to sit outside and enjoy the ocean breezes without the acrid odor of cigarettes. I think to accommodate both sides Monmouth could have employed the Saratoga solution. You have to be outside of the physical plant to smoke, and there are plenty of open areas front and back.

I did mention it on twitter while I was there, and to his credit Travis Stone, Monmouth’s track announcer, did acknowledge my tweet and said he would pass my concern along. Nothing changed, but by that time I  figured I needed to focus on betting the races and stop worrying about things beyond my control. They weren’t going to fix the smaller problem or the bigger problem in an hour.

What I realized was that most of my disappointments that day were part of a larger problem that was not simply endemic to Monmouth.  On a day when the weather could hardly have been nicer, the beaches in Monmouth County were packed but the track looked positively ghostly.

Monmouth Park at one time was a jewel of a track, and during the summer the weekends were packed with racegoers. What has happened to Monmouth is happening at tracks all over the country. Attendance is down, handle is way down. Purses are declining. Same story as every other track. Saratoga is probably more immune than most places, but even the historic Spa is feeling the effects of a sport that is in decline. The impacts at Monmouth are obvious. Management finally dropped purses on Friday. The fields were fairly short on Sunday. Four races had 6 horses, four had 7, one had 8, one had 9 and one had 11. Two thirds of the races had 7 or fewer horses. They listed the attendance as 9,327. I can’t say with absolute certainty that number was inflated, but based on my wandering around the grounds, I would never have guessed half that number. Where i was betting there was never a line at the betting machines or the teller windows.

i wouldn’t say the place had slid horribly downhill physically, but it felt like I was going to work instead of for a day at the track. The place was almost funereal. There was no vibe, no buzz throughout the track. Large sections of the track were empty. There was a band playing in the back of the house to an audience of three,

I paid for the clubhouse admission, but was surprised to find out a lot of the outdoor grandstand seats on the clubhouse side had been taken out. I sent a query to the track asking about that, but never received a reply. The seats that remained in the clubhouse part of the grandstand were sparsely populated  because they were being sold for $2. It’s amazing how the price of one bet can deter anyone, but it does. If you wanted to watch a race seated in the grandstand, you either had to pay for a seat or go over to the general admission side. Of course, compared to Saratoga that isn’t so bad – there are no free seats there, unless you count the numerous benches in the clubhouse where people slap a newspaper through the slats and claim it as their own. But that is another rant for another day.

Travis Stone, the track announcer was a high point. Very professional, and I don’t think anyone could fairly say he was a downgrade from Larry Collmus. The plant and the grounds were relatively clean. The food has never been great at Monmouth, so there is nothing to gripe about there, and if you wanted something to eat or drink you at least didn’t have to stand in a long line.

The state of Monmouth was not unique. More and more tracks are feeling too large for the crowds that actually show up, but Monmouth was always a jewel of a track, not quite Saratoga but better than a lot of the summer tracks. It is now in a long line of tracks that are suffering, and there seems to be few solutions beyond some form of slot machines. We all know that is really not a long term answer.

The first step on the long road to decline is apathy. Whether it is related to the obviously detestable things like the track take or the less tangible things like unenthusiastic customer relations, failure starts with the absence of passion. Monmouth is not the problem. Monmouth is the result of the same years of poor management and promotion that occur everywhere. It is what happens when people look at their weekend and decide baking on the beach sounds like a better idea than heading to the track. It is what happens when everyone in the chain, from the head of management to the $2 punter just stop caring. Eventually Monmouth will start to show the obvious physical signs. Lighting going out, paint peeling, floors not being swept clean. If a track with a desirable location and no competition from the NY City area tracks for six weeks is struggling, the future is bleak indeed.

Selections

Saratoga August 11 Late Pick-4

Not the greatest day of racing at the Spa, but there are certainly opportunities.

RACE 6

  • 1 Alexndeed. This five start maiden started in MSW earlier this year and dropped to MC by the time he got to Belmont. His two maiden claimers showed significant improvement and although he takes a very slight rise in claiming price today, he is competitive in this field. He has shown speed before so the 1 post should pose no problem.
  • 3 Smoke Police is a first time starter for Chad Brown who is 22% with a positive ROI with a large sampling of first timers. I don’t think the workout pattern is particularly strong so I will watch the board before including him in the pick-4.
  • 5 Bird Now drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. He has a race over the surface and improving numbers, but he doesn’t look as fast as some of the others. A lesser pick for me in here.
  • 7 Perfect Danger has a good last race in his first try with maiden claimers. He is fast and other than a tendency to lose stregth in the deep stretch looks like the controlling speed. If he is anywhere near his 12-1 ML he is a must use.

RACE 7

  • 2 Thisdanseistaken is a turf sprint specialist but has been racing at lower levels. She is a pressing sort so she’ll have to stay close enough to kick by the 4 at the end, but she has an excellent record in turf sprints.
  • 3 Chelsea Road has had success at 5.5F, is 2 for 3 on the turf and 1 for 1 at SAR.
  • 4 Be My Love is a 5F specialist and is the fastest horse in the race. She  has two negatives – she’s been off since March and she’s been at lower class levels. It wouldn’t be a shock if she wired the field but she is no sure thing.

RACE 8

  • 2 Sweet Acclaim has been knocking at the door since her trip to the U.S. She seems well suited for the mile distance, is graded stakes placed, and made a very nice closing run into a fairly slow early pace in the Lake George. Chad Brown switches to Joel Rosario today and that shouldn’t limit Sweet Acclaim’s chances.
  • 3 Walk Close has done nothing wrong in three starts for Christophe Clement, plus she’s already beaten a couple of these. Will probably be the favorite and deservedly so.
  • 5 Zinzay threw in a clunker in the Appalachian and may actually be better suited to sprints. She has a win over the SAR turf and runs well fresh. If she runs her best she could be part of the finish.
  • 9 Hillhouse High fits with this group. She’s been first or second 5 of 6 starts on the turf inlcuding two nice runs at SAR. She looks well suited to the mile and has plenty of room for improvement.
  • 11 Final Redemption has drawn into the race and must be given a look. The Graham Motion trainee ripped a field at 6F on the yielding Belmont turf and the step up shows a lot of confidence in her ability. She’ll have to work hard from the outside post, but has a lot of upside.

RACE 9

  • 3 Bolt From the Blue has two mile turf starts and obviously needs a shorter distance and perhaps a cheaper class. He’s probably a little underlayed at 6-1 ML but I don’t think he’ll be used heavily in the picks.
  • 6 Giant Slayer is one of the numerous drop down horses. He is lightly raced and did show a nice turn of foot in his last. Could win with just a little improvement.
  • 7 Eternal Bull started out inauspiciously but has two useful races in a row, one of the SAR turf. The trainer/jockey combination has done well this year and Mike Hushion does well with this sort of drop down. He’s dropping into a maiden claimer and looks very strong in this spot.
Selections

August 8 Monmouth Late Pick-4

Since I’m going to be at Monmouth on Sunday I thought I would take a look at some of those races. It initially has the look of a pick-4 that doesn’t have a lot of complexity with the possible exception of the 8th race.

RACE 8

The 8th is the featured Colleen Stakes for 2 year old fillies at 5 furlongs on the turf. There is a lot left to prove for this group and I think it is fair to say no filly really sticks out.

  • 3 Momma’s Favorite has one race on a sloppy race track where she showed a lot of interest swinging wide into the stretch and closing past horses to finish second. There is every reason to expect she’ll take to the turf. Given that half the field is still without a win, it wouldn’t be a complete shock for someone to get her first win in this race. It certainly could be Momma’s Favorite.
  • 5 Nicky’s Brown Miss opened her career at MTH but moved to BEL where she ran a good race on the turf. She is one of the many that has yet to break her maiden, but her last race really showed a lot of aptitude for the turf. If she shows a bit more speed and her closing enthusiasm she could break her maiden in this race. She is cross entered at Saratoga so may not go in this race.
  • 6 Tulira’s Star was third in the Schuylerville on opening day at SAR. She was bumped at the break and was not able to show the speed she did in her maiden win. She gets her third new rider, but with a clean break she has a chance to be in the mix at the wire.
  • 8 Nellinger has one maiden race on the turf at Saratoga and ran evenly around the track. She looks as good as any of the runners here and is another one that may break her maiden.

RACE 9

  • 1 More Than a Party is one of two horses that look well above the rest of the field. She has a win at the distance at MTH two races back. You can excuse her last race since it was on the turf. If she runs to her figure she seems to be the winner.
  • 2 P J’s Superego has four seconds in four races at MTH. She has the speed to duel More Than a Party and on her best day can win the race.

RACE 10

  • 2 World Gone Wright has one race on the turf but it was a win over the MTH surface. She has three wins in five outings and has been competitive with better. She looks like she’ll have the lead and will be the one to catch.
  • 4 Allaboutcaroline looks a little cheaper than some in this field, but she is a fast filly and she likes turf sprints. She looks like a must use on the pick-4.
  • 7 Ju Ju  Eyeballs ran big in her last at MTH and may inherit the favorites role today. She’s 4 for 5 with a second on the turf, she has good figures and would be no surprise at all in the winner’s circle.
  • 11 Well Lit has a win and two seconds on the MTH turf. She’s won two sprints in a row, although at Penn National. I’m not sure she is fast enough to get into the race early, and she has been racing with much less than she is facing today, but I think she has a chance to be in the money.

RACE 11

  • 1 Writer’s Block is a four start maiden that showed some talent at the $10K level last out. He has a little bit of speed so should be able to establish position from the 1 post.
  • 3 Soniko was claimed last out at this same $10K level. He was a solid favorite in his last race, and didn’t run poorly but didn’t really finish in a way that might justify his 5-2 ML. With only two races under his belt he has every chance to improve, but I wouldn’t make him a single.
  • 5 Safari Samba was second in the same race in which Writer’s Block was third last out. It was a useful race, and with only five starts he is another that could improve enough to win the race. He should be the one battling with Soniko and if speed is holding up, it could run that way around the track.
  • 8 Devil’s Match raced at the wrong distance last out but didn’t disgrace himself. He looks far better placed in a sprint, and although he hasn’t shown high early speed, his finishing numbers make him a contender.
Selections

Saratoga August 8 – Late Pick-4

Link

The races today present a slighly different set of problems than yesterday’s races.

RACE 7

This race is pretty ambiguous. The horses with the best figures are all chronic N2L runners with multiple unsuccessful starts. The horses with fewer starts for the most part look either not in condition or slower.

  • 4 Loveisheartandsoul has been off since December but Linda Rice has reasonable success with layoff horses. This horse is the fastest in the race. His style is to come from off the pace, and it doesn’t look like there will be a lot of pace to run at, but given his figure superiority I think we will just have to trust he will get in the race. Top choice.
  • 5 Handsome Dennis is 1 for 13 and 0  for 6 on the turf. Of the multi N2L starters he seems most likely to notch his second win, although it is a relative advantage.
  • 6 Uncle Mitcho is 1 for 17 but his one win was on the turf. He is 0 for 3 at SAR. Not a surprise in the money but I just can’t get excited about using these horses on top.
  • 8 Defining Product broke his maiden at LRL and has two starts against winners at Presque Isle. Neither race was particularly bad but it wasn’t particularly fast either. Still, he fits the pattern of a horse that wins this sort of race so he’ll be on the tickets.
  • 9 Dominate is 1 for 21 with 12 seconds/thirds. It gets old saying it, but he is more likely to be 1 for 22 after the race. He may be shorter odds, but that will reflect his odds of finishing in the money more than the win.
  • 12 Anmaat is on the AE list and would be a must use if he draws in.

RACE 8

All the horses in this race seem to be about the same. No stickouts but not a lot of confirmed losers.

  • 2 Lady Rhuarb broke her maiden in May for $40K and that may keep her from getting bet, but she has competitive figures. She has come out much stronger in 2014 under Gary Gullo’s care. She hasn’t been on the turf, but as you know I like speed horses that shift surfaces.
  • 3 A P Johnson broke her maiden at SAR at this distance and didn’t disgrace herself in a subsequent stakes. Linda Rice is successful off layoffs. Her figure as a two year old would be competitive in this field.
  • 4 In Her Day broke her maiden on the inner turf at AQU and usually that form doesn’t translate well to other surfaces. This is her first turf try  and she moves from Linda Rice’s barn to the barn of George Weaver. He has had some success transferring from dirt to turf.  Johnny V picks up the mount.
  • 5 Baby B had been struggling until she was claimed by Richard Schosberg. He found the winning formula and that seems to include turf sprints. Baby B ran a remarkable 11.07 in the last eighth in her win and a repeat off that race makes her a winner. She’ll be a slight top choice.

RACE 9

  • 4 So Lonesome is a contender but seems to be placed a bit beyond his talent. His two wins against winners have been a state-bred stakes and a $40K OC. He has shown speed lately and that seems to fit him better. A contender.
  • 5 Long on Value has two second place finishes in a row, one in a Grade 3 at Arlington. He is a marginal Grade 2 runner and one of the contenders.
  • 6 Bashart  came out in the Manila in 2014 and ran creditably. He takes the blinkers off for Christopher Clement and has every right to improve, especially given he has two wins on the Saratoga turf. Top choice.
  • 7 Bobby’s Kitten has been waiting to demonstrate the form he showed in almost wiring the BC Juv Turf field. He only has win at Tampa in an allowance race and one at Penn National in a stakes, both at a mile. He’ll be the favorite, but I think he is vulnerable today.

RACE 10

  • 6 Murmure is a Pletcher fire sale horse. She started her career as the favorite on the SAR turf and has been disappointing since. Pletcher dropped her to $65K last out an now seems willing to part ways with the horse. It does look like she prefers the dirt–her one dirt race seems to be her best. The strength of this field is underscored by her 7-5 ML, especially considering she has never finished in the money and lost her last two by a combined almost 20 lengths.
  • 7 Prove It All Night has one race on the SAR dirt and it was easily her best. She’s another one sliding down the class ladder, but she has some speed and may lead this field all the way. At 10-1 ML she’s in the mix.
  • 9 Bird Rockette puts the blinkers on for Nick Zito. She has little to recommend other than a decent sprint effort in the slop at Belmont, but in this field it may be enough.
  • 10 Sweethots has one good race on the AQU inner dirt and a fair race on the AQU main, but has consistently showed speed and that makes her a contender. Manny Franco actually has had the best success with the horse and replaces the ironically named Abel Lezcano on board. In a race where you have to reach for reasons to recommend a horse, Sweethots has as good as any.
Selections

Saratoga August 7 – Late Pick-4

It’s another interesting  all turf late pick-4 but with no marathon race. Nothing is more irritating than handicapping a race and realizing five minutes before post time you totally missed a contender. We’ll try not to miss  anything today.

RACE 7

  • 6 Fire Ship is a 10-start maiden with a start over the Saratoga turf. Her last was a troubled trip, but her penultimate start makes her competitive.
  • 7 Tenacious Indeed is another with a start over the track. With only three starts she is eligible to improve, although her best to this point looks a little too slow. She adds blinkers and we’ll see if that adds focus. By way of default, she inherits the top choice after the scratch of the 4.
  • 9 Make Your Point is well on the way to professional maidenhood.  She is one of the horses coming out of the July 21 race won by Under Scrutiny. She tracked all the way around and there is every reason to see the same today.
  • 10 Kevin’s Steel on the other hand is about fully established in the professional maiden ranks. She could merry-go-round her way to another in the money finish, but she’s more likely to be 0 for 14 at the end of the race.

RACE 8

  • 3 Santa Elf has two wins in a row on the dirt, and only one turf start. Bruce Brown claimed him last out and Brown has not been strong off the claim. He’s not without a chance, but not the top choice.
  • 4 Defiant exploded on the Monmouth turf last out but generally conditioned claimers making a jump up to NW1X are not reliable. He’s got plenty of speed and that is dangerous.
  • 5 Heart Doctor will get a lot of action and is hard working, but he is another that can’t seem to make the jump to NW1X. I’m making him a bet against.
  • 6 Golden Story is another speedy sort. He only has 5 starts and is eligible to improve, but I’d be more excited if his last was at this level instead of OC25K.
  • 7 Otokogi is making his turf debut off a nice run at Keeneland last April. If he wasn’t trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Johnny V I doubt I’d give him a second look, but Motion has been on fire.
  • 8 Indian Rain Dance is the top choice. He ran a bang-up race first on the turf and if he repeats it he gets the win.

RACE 9

  • 1 Ghurair is another horse coming out of the United Nations. He’s obviously a step below graded stakes, but fits well at this level. Definite contender
  • 3 Red Rifle is a speedy sort and lately the turf has been playing to closers. If the race was a mile I’d be far more excited since he seems to be far and away the best speed. He has great figures an is at the right class level. Pletcher and Velasquez make him necessary to consider.
  • 5 Lochte will be the top pick. He is a horse that likes winning and has actually won a Grade 1. He has a third on the Saratoga turf. His low profile connections will keep him from getting bet heavily.
  • 7 Tetradrachm hasn’t been this low in a while. He’s been running nothing but graded stakes, and that seems to have kept him from the winner’s circle. I think this is a shrewd drop. He has a win on the SAR lawn. My close second choice.
  • 9 Reflecting is another that has been suffering at higher classes. He seems to prefer going longer so he may be a few strides late, especially given there is not much speed to run at. He has taken the lead in longer races but he is not going to outgun Red Rifle. His figures say competitive.

RACE 10

  • 3 Jennys Creek. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. 0 for 17 maidens are more likely to be 0 for 18 than 1 for 18. I don’t care how bad the field looks. She is only a potential in the money horse for me.
  • 5 Barrier to Entry is the top choice. She was getting killed on the dirt, switched to the turf and took the lead, finishing only 6.5 lengths behind. She looks a lot like a Condition Sign horse and her last race figure is plenty competitive with these.
  • 9 Given Fire was right there in her last at the 6F call. She’s been off since September but has been working steadily for this year’s debut. I’d like her a lot more if she had a short speed workout, but if Maggie says she looks fabulous, she’s worth a bet.
  • 10 Gu Gu Beans owes me money. I bet her very heavily last time out at 7-1. Her neck defeat cost me the pick-4 as well. But, to be a successful horseplayer you can’t take these things personally. She gets another chance today.
  • 11 Home to Carrowkeel had a miserable trip the last time but managed to close a lot of lengths in the stretch. She could be the best in here. It doesn’t hurt that the red hot Michelle Nevin trains. No surprise if she improves substantially.
Opinions

Maggie Wolfendale Is Amazing

When I am home in Colorado I have lately been acting as the racing analyst at Arapahoe Park. It’s sort of a combination of Andy Sperling and Maggie Wolfendale. I get to stand in the paddock and talk about the horses, including my perceptions of their physical appearance. I’ve done my share of soothsaying about the horses for a lot of years and I’ve studied conformation and appearance. I’m better than the average racegoer when it comes to assessing a horse’s looks, but I’m nowhere near Maggie Wolfendale’s league. She’s positively an alchemist when it comes to turning looks into gold.

In the 8th race at Saratoga today I’m feeling good about my pick-4 after the 11 horse in the 7th race  can’t go slow enough in the stretch to not pass the 9. I’ve got the horse I think is the speed, Joe’s Blazing Aaron, the big back class horse Battle Force, and two of the pressing closers, Middleburg and Upgrade. If I’m worried about anything it’s Silver Freak pushing Joe’s Blazing Aaron. Sperling turns it over to Maggie and she is absolutely glowing about Silver Freak. Nice muscling, keyed up. And I don’t have a ticket with the 2 on it.

I admit it. I go up and single the 2 with the four horses I’m using in the 9th and the 3 I am using in the 10th. $12 pick-3 to cover myself. Silver Freak takes the lead, Joe’s Blazing Aaron tracks in second. Middleburg makes a mild closing bid, but Silver Freak essentially finds another gear and wins for fun.

Naturally I hit the 9th and 10th and had half of a $290 pick-3 to console myself.

I know how hard her job is and I’m giving her all the credit in the world. She does her job extraordinarily well. She doesn’t tout horses, she just reports what she sees. She gets the greatest compliments she can get from a handicapper. She has influence and she changes the tote board. I hope NYRA realizes what an amazing job she does.

 

 

 

Selections

Saratoga August 6 – Late Pick-4

It isn’t that the pick-4 is outrageously unpredictable. It is more that each race seems to be divided into potential winners and very unlikely winners.

RACE 7

  • 1 Precarious was obviously over her head in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly stakes at Woodbine. She has consistent figures, but doesn’t seem to be more than an allowance runner on her best day. She has some negatives with regard to her willingness to hold a lead in the stretch. She has two unspectacular races on the Saratoga turf. She’s a contender but not rock solid.
  • 3 Lawn Party is one of the low start horses with plenty of upside. Todd Pletcher trains the 3YO. She finished behind the talented Sea Queen and Minorette in the Wonder Again and came back to run a nice race in her first start against older horses. She’s had a couple of maintenace workouts and gets the services of Johnny V. Solid contender and the top choice today.
  • 4 Satisfaction seems a step or two slower that the other runners. She put blinkers on for her last run  and still ran evenly around the track. She shows an early/pressing style, although her interior fractions have not been impressive. She’s been rested for three months and shows a bullet work in her last. She has room to improve but needs to show a bit more today.
  • 7 More Than Less came from the clouds to nail her maiden at Churchill.  The fact that Steve Assmussen trains is a positive, but given the lack of high early speed, if she employs the same tactics today she may not be able to run by the field in the stretch.
  • 11 Kitten’s Queen has been at this condition for a while. Castellano stays aboard and this is the third start off the bench this year. Michael Maker has had two starts to get her to the winner’s circle and is running out of time to vindicate his training efforts. Three starts on the SAR lawn have resulted in one 2nd place finish. Could win off her best, but starting to look like a career also ran.

RACE 8

  • 1 Middleburg has been competitive at this level for a while . She has  pace figures that put her right in the mix in this race.
  • 3 Casino Dan has a race over the SAR turf the same day as Joe’s Blazing Aaron. The later ran two seconds faster at the 3/4 and the mile, so Casino Dan did not have a lot of pace to run at. The pace should be faster today and that can only benefit Casino Dan.
  • 4 Joe’s Blazing Aaron was just claimed last out by Gary Contessa and he wheels the horse right back for a slightly higher price. He wired fields in his last two starts  and seems best suited for the mile distance, but there is enough speed in this race to make it problematic for him to settle comfortably in front. If Silver Streak scratches, he becomes much more dangerous.
  • 5 Battle Force has some impressive back class. He is graded stakes placed and has a useful comeback race on July 19 where is broke a little tardy but closed some into a moderate pace.  Shirreffs is not impressive second of a layoff, but I’m not letting that stop me. Top choice.
  • 6 Upgrade is a hard knocker who fits well with this group. Chad Brown is having his usual quality meet and Upgrade is one of the many contenders.  He has two starts on the SAR turf with no in the money finishes

RACE 9

  • 3 Bohemian Dance should have no trouble with the distance. She won an optional claimer first out in the states, and came back at Delaware in a stakes that was taken off the turf. While she is a filly going against the boys, she’s had success against males previously. She is a legitimate longshot play.
  • 5 Micromanage is one of the two Pletcher trainees. He has graded stakes experience but no races on the turf. He may be one Pletcher is keeping in the race in the event of rain.
  • 8 Winning Cause has raced almost nothing but graded stakes, and if you read my article on turf racing, you know I believe legitimate graded horses beat non graded horses. Pletcher and Velasquez team up for the try and despite the fact he hasn’t been to the winner’s circle in a year, I’ll make him the top choice.
  • 9 Grand Rapport has looked great in his turf races and has a race over the SAR turf already this year. In fact he has a win and two seconds at SAR. Another horse at odds with a legitimate chance.

RACE 10

  • 3 Island Therapy is a 9 start maiden who is developing the look of a professional in the money runner. Given he only has two turf starts, with one at SAR, I think he can be given one more shot. He certainly has the numbers to compete in this field.
  • 6 Blue Chips Only  is bound to be the controlling speed. Athough he doesn’t have any turf experience, he may take the lead and forget to stop. He is dropping from straight maidens and adds blinkers for this trip. A very interesting price horse.
  • 9 Copper Core puts blinkers on for small stable trainer Thomas Morley.  He does have a 20% winning rate and Copper Core just missed at this class in his last two. Top choice.
Opinions

To Lasix or Not to Lasix

The no raceday medication movement is gaining momentum. It has a far stronger feel than in years past. I don’t think this issue will be fully resolved for a while, but some of racing’s elite trainers have concluded it is necessary for the health of the sport.

D. Wayne Lukas, now in the category of elder statesman, and Todd Pletcher have been the trainers the media has gone to for quotes on the Lasix-banning side while Snidely…I mean Rick Violette is adamant about keeping it as a raceday medication.

Lukas and Pletcher are part of a group of 25 prominent trainers, including Shug McGaughey, Richard Mandella and Bill Mott, who had already pledged to keep their two year olds off Lasix and want to make that the standard in racing starting in 2015. Nick Zito said he wasn’t asked to sign but did support the ban.

Violette is backed up by a number of the humid climate trainers in Florida and New York. Violette said,

“The position of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association has not wavered. The science has not changed. The horses have not changed. Most horses suffer from exercise induced pulmonary hemorrhage (EIPH), and Lasix is the only scientifically proven, truly effective treatment we have to protect them. A Lasix ban does not benefit the horse, the owner or the horseplayer. Forcing trainers to return to using archaic methods to treat bleeders, whether it is the barbaric practice of taking away water for 24 to 48 hours or trying homeopathic remedies with questionable results, is not progress. Absent a researched and reasoned alternative to protect horses from EIPH, NYTHA is vehemently against any ban on Lasix.” 

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of gray area. One side says ban drugs, the other side says there is no alternative that isn’t barbaric. I’m not sure either side is ready to compromise, but I’m going to offer my solution.

Those who favor the drug ban not only cite the obvious reason – according to the public “drugs are drugs” and there is always a perception that Lasix is performance enhancing – but also suggest Lasix is the reason horses race about half as often as they did 50 years ago. The argument is that the need for horses to recover from the effects of Lasix only allows them to run six instead of 10-12 times a year. Naturally, owners have to pay trainer and vet bills the whole year. The fewer times a horse runs, the less often it has a chance to catch a purse.

It is also the case that the number of owners has been steadily decreasing. It makes a lot of sense that the ratio of expenses to purses won could be a major contributing factor.

So whether we are talking about potential real problems such as performance enhancement, using Lasix to mask other drugs or how long it takes to recover from the use of diuertics, or perceived problems by the racing public, banning Lasix sounds like a no brainer to those of us limited to betting on horses.

The other question is, how many horses bleed so severely that Lasix is an absolute necessity to keep them racing? There is debate, but the evidence leans toward only a small percentage of horses being serious bleeders. If you are one of the big time trainers, having to retire a chronic bleeder isn’t such a big deal. But if your stable consists of a few claiming runners, the idea of retiring a potential earner is a much tougher decision.

Even Major League Baseball allows synthetic testosterone injections if they are deemed a medical necessity as we found out in the case of Alex Rodriguez. Even if a state requires vet certification before authorizing the use of Lasix, we know that most horses bleed, although not seriously. It’s news if a horse doesn’t get certified for Lasix.

The major difficulty with the discussion at the moment is that it seems to be primarily New York based trainers against other New York based trainers. The rest of the country is apparently just expected to fall in line.

I’ve argued for a national racing commission that would establish consistent rules for the sport, including drugs. But even that commission should take into account there is more than just 1,600 miles between Saratoga and Arapahoe Park. There has to be the equivalent of the major leagues and minor leagues, and the rules have to be slightly more lenient at the minor league tracks. For the sake of argument, let’s divide tracks into A, B, C and D. A tracks would be places like Belmont, Saratoga, Santa Anita, Churchill, Arlington, Del Mar and similar tracks that have multiple Grade 1 races at their meet. B tracks might include Sunland or Tampa or Turf Paradise, tracks that have some big races, but also have a lot of bottom level claimers. To be a B track, a turf course may also be required. C tracks would be all the other tracks, such as Arapahoe Park or Albuquerque. D tracks would be fair meets or places like Wyoming Downs.

I have a fairly simple proposal. Race day medication at A tracks would only be allowed for bleeders that could not race otherwise. The bar would be set very high,  applying to only the most serious bleeders, maybe 2-5% of all runners. If necessary, purses would be supplemented by the commission to ensure enough horses are on the grounds to have full fields.

At B tracks, in addition to certified serious bleeders, Lasix would only be allowed in claiming races below a certain threshold. This means trainers who want to use Lasix might have to risk losing their charges. Horses below the threshold claiming level winning without Lasix would be eligible for a purse bonus. Same for horses that forego Lasix at C tracks.

At C tracks, Lasix would be allowed for all but stakes races.

At D tracks Lasix would be allowed for all horses at all levels.

This system ensures that at the highest levels most of the runners are Lasix free, but it allows racing to continue at the smaller venues. Trainers who want to use Lasix always have places they can race. I think it would even be fine to become more restrictive with Lasix at the B and C tracks over a period of years.

I’m not going to worry about how a track becomes A – D. We all know which tracks are A for sure and C for sure. It then becomes a process of segmenting the remaining tracks. The good thing is that if a track thinks they are a B instead of a C, they would have to adhere to the B level rules.

I could go into a lot more detail, but you get the idea. We recognize the spectrum of tracks that exist and we provide incentives for not using race day medication.

How about helping fill out this idea?

Handicapping and Betting

Whitney Stakes

The Whitney on Saturday was supposed to be a small speed bump in the road to horse of the year for Palace Malice. It turned out to be a large boulder.

The race was won by  Moreno at 10-1. Naturally there were a lot of very disappointed Palace Malice followers, some even pointing out that the race wasn’t won by the best horse in the race.

This is where the rub is. Moreno was the best horse in the race if the scenario was for an easy lead with a pace that wasn’t killing. If the pace had been faster, he wasn’t a very likely winner.

This is a critical mistake that handicappers often make. It is easy to identify the fastest or most accomplished horse. But remember I wrote about the four questions you need to answer before you make a selection.

  • What kind of style has been winning that type of race? Early speed? Plodders? There hadn’t been a comparable dirt route run on that day, but dirt races had been won wire to wire and come from behind. So the track looked like it was playing fairly.
  • Which race do we choose to evaluate the horse? Moreno had just tried to wire a field in the Suburban and fell a little short. That race was a quarter mile longer, so the idea of Moreno wiring a field in the Whitney was not out of the question. Any of his races where he had the lead and finished well would give us a good idea of ability.
  • How fast can he run? If he is too slow on his best day, you can eliminate the horse.
  • Can he run a winning race today. This was the key question. If you believed Moreno would jump out to the lead (a reasonable scenario), would not be pushed hard  up front, and would be on reasonable fractions, then you had to use him on top.

The lesson of the Whitney is

HANDICAP THE HORSE AND THE RACE.

Palice Malice looked incredibly strong on paper. His connections spared no expense trying to figure out why he ran a complete clunker. So far they haven’t found a physical explanation, but I’m betting sooner or later they come up with a reason. Even with Moreno’s comfortable fractions, had Palace Malice been in top form he may have won. But that doesn’t change the strategy. You can bet both scenarios.

I’ll add one thing about the “loose on the lead” concept. Horses instinctively want to run to the front. It takes a combination of training and jockey ability to get a horse to relax and explode to the front late, just as it takes jockey ability to get a front runner to relax and not blow all his energy on the lead. There were plenty of pressing type horses in the race. The jockeys could have read the relatively slow pace and been closer to Moreno throughout, probably giving them a better chance to win. If you watch the great ones, they all had speed to spare – they just chose to use it in different ways.

So Moreno probably isn’t going to get any votes for horse of the year, but he was the horse of the Whitney at $22.

Selections

Saratoga August 4 – Late Pick-4

Well I’m back and I’m mighty irritated that I missed the late pick 4 at Saratoga. It turns out that Bet America doesn’t take action from NJ, so my option was TwinSpires, which I had been boycotting in support of the Players Boycott. Anyway, I stuck to my guns, missed a nice payoff and for the rest of the week it is either the OTB or Monmouth.

RACE 6

This is state-bred stakes at a mile on the inner turf. It is a very competitive field, mostly because none of the runners really stands out.

  • 2 Takeoff Your Hat has been off since May 19 and only has one workout for his return. On her best day she is very competitive with horses of this ilk, but the time off with no work is concerning and Phil Serpe is not well known as a layoff trainer. I think you have to throw her on your tickets, but definitely an ambiguous play.
  • 3 Funky Munky Fever finished between Old Harbor and Lady Kreesa and came back to finish 4th in a $50K starter allowance. She comes from well back and is another one that would have to run a career race to win.
  • 5 Lady Kreesa is a lightly raced filly that is very eligible to improve. She adds blinkers today, although running toward the front hasn’t been a problem. She has worked steadily since her last and Johnny V stays aboard. Top choice.
  • 6 Old Harbor is likely to go off the favorite. She has a win over the SAR turf and has been competitive in most of her races. No surprise if she wins.

RACE 7

This is one of those races where no horse sticks out, so I generally look for horses that haven’t proven themselves to be professional losers or who have something positive to recommend.

  • 9 Thundering Gale is listed as the favorite and probably has the best combination of speed and closing ability. She’s run well fresh in the past and since being claimed by Chad Brown has been working regularly. I think Brown has a plan with Thundering Gale and it starts today with a win in a cheap NW2 claiming race. She is the top choice.
  • 7 Scribbling Sarah is the other X factor. She broke her maiden at SAR at today’s distance. She looked overmatched trying longer distances and was dropped to a $30K claimer in November where she was grabbed by Linda Rice. Rice gave her plenty of time off and she has three unspectacular workouts for her return, but I believe she was looking for a soft spot like this. She’ll likely come from off the pace, and if Cornelio Velasquez times it right she’ll have a chance to have her picture taken.

RACE 8

It’s another ambiguous race, meaning there are a number of horses that you could make a case for. I’m going to settle on three.

  • 4 Vicki’s Dancer has been best on the turf and has a competitive pace figure. She lost to Double the Energy at 7F but has the look of a runner that will enjoy the extra furlong. She has been working steadily since that last run and retains the services of Joel Rosario. She’ll be the top choice.
  • 5 Double the Energy has also been off since June 15, but only has one workout since. She has plenty of speed and Cornelio Velasquez may be able to nurse it to the wire.
  • 2 Unbelievable Dream is 3 for 7 at a mile on the turf. Like many of the others in this race she is coming out of the state-bred allowance race at 7F on June 15. She had to wait to make her move in the stretch in that race and still only lost by half a length. She’s had a little bit of trouble getting to the winner’s circle, but if she sustains her move she may just be first to the wire.

RACE 9

  • 4 Cast a Doubt has a pressing style and gets the services of Johnny V. He’s been consistent and seems ready to get back to his winning ways. Velasquez and trainer Bruce Levine have done well in the past but lately have not been a potent combination.  Even so, in this field if he runs his best he will win. Top choice.
  • 5 B Shanny is two for three at SAR. He had raced with much better horses in 2013  but in 2014 has been tumbling down the claiming ladder. Low profile trainer Assaf Ronen claimed the horse last out and his 1 for 10 record first off the claim  is not inspiring, but the short time off could get the horse back to form.
  • 11 Sense of Peace should be the controlling speed and is two for three this year. He is taking a slight drop in class, but $35K NW3 down to $20K open is not a precipitous drop. He is wearing a bar shoe, but he has run ok with a bar shoe previously. If he gets out well he could be hard to catch.
  • 9 Reserved Quality has had a busy 2014 with 10 starts, but he has been successful with better. He picks of the services of Corey Lanerie who really has looked a cut below the regular SAR riders, but is still a quality jockey. He’s one of the horses who should have a good position turning for home and could close for a piece.